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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 05:41 PM)
Unlike stock and commodities, property is illiquid and foreclosures take time, price won't crash but take years to bottom.

It take a number of events leading to any crisis, seeds are planted and waiting for the perfect storm. Unless the property market defy conventional economic theory, property crisis is inevitable.
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Let's cut the rhetoric. What are the events specifically that will cause "property crisis is inevitable" ?
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post Jan 26 2014, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 26 2014, 05:49 PM)
actually property crisis happen before la.. it is not new to us... between 1997 to 2003 is the crisis what ever new launch price will down 10-15% after completed and hand over the key to owner, 2004 start to pick up only... but that time increase 2-3% per annum.

so, if u think prop to down 10-15% is normal... but bankrupt is minority for flipper or owner.
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10-15% is not a "crisis". I want 30-50% drool.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 05:56 PM)

Yes a lot of things in BAFIA is illegal. For example it's illegal to for bankers to take our details and sell to property agent, but this goes on so rampantly. The chances for them to be caught is very slim, as there is no mechanism to check and penalise. How many person ever being charge in Court for BAFIA anyway?

All sales person just want to close sales as in Malaysian style. Apa pun boleh. Asalkan got big big commission. And for the bank, they know this is happening and just closing one eye for the sake of profit. I even heard of an insider story that certain banks personnel cheat customer money. But in the end there is no case. As the bank resolve it internally and just ask that particular staff to leave. You think any bank will admit they are part of the fraud and tarnished their own reputation unless of course its a very very large figure transaction?

P/S. I knew a few bankers around.
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Never doubt that there are cases that escape BAFIA and I witness some first hand myself.

P/S I am a ex banker who still keep contact with ex colleague. We always sensationalise fraud cases in banks to our friends as it is a very good story during drinking session. Especially attractive to mui mui zai who loves dramatic plots.
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 06:08 PM)
We need to know what's the income of mid class to be able to do an analysis. For me, I would think mid class is about 5-7k a month gross income. At 7k gross that would only be about 5.7k nett after tax and statutory deduction. They wouldn't go and rent a 2500/month housing. That rental is 43% of their nett salary.

And the 2500/month rental is based on zero cashflow for the owner if he/she bought the property at 500,000k over 35 years of loan.

So if earning 7k can't rent a 500,000 property, then who will rent property that is newly launch at above 700k in Klang Valley? Let's ponder that deeply. I'm still wondering as well cause I for one will not spend so much $$$ on rental. Rather stay at low rental place and spend my money somewhere else.
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True for individual. What if it is a household double income ? They now can afford, right ?
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 06:26 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 06:18 PM)
Maybe u can start with some names branch and position..so dat I can house clean these ppl report to attorney general...  coz after dis u got new plot to tell and dis time rreal.in life..
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Left the industry already. Anyway, fraud cases are rare. We just sensationalise them to mui mui zai to get their attention tongue.gif Works everytime
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 06:26 PM)
Alright, if double then sure can. Then the questions is, if double income, they could definitely buy a house instead of renting right? And since they can afford to buy for own stay and perhaps have also bought it already. Then who is gonna rent the rest of it from the market?
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Sorry I thought you were referring to buying instead of renting.

Back to renting, nowadays very difficult to find cashflow positive investment nowadays. Rental may not be RM2500, but RM1500-1800 maybe. You will be lucky if you can find some with 5% rental yield.

Previously the couple may be able to buy because of zero-entry. No savings of RM100k+ also can buy. After 2014, no more DIBS and zero entry, so they can't afford to buy anymore. They have to rent and try to save enough to pay the deposit
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 07:50 PM)
Well, I did made some comparison. BU 12 landed freehold based on iproperty is about 1-1.3 million for 2000-2300 sq feet. And yesterday I went for the preview launch of PJ MidTown (Section 13) by Sime Darby & IOI. The price for 1200 sq feet with 2 car park lease hold service suite start from 1M and above. To me is crazy pricing. Developer is riding the uptrend craze.

If there is property price correction (Don't want to use the word bubble or crash as its sensitive), which one will hangus first? And be honest to ourself, as buyer scouting around to buy property which one will you buy as a buyer?

Assuming BU12 unit as mentioned did go down by 5%, I wonder how much will the service suite will go down?

What I see is that many secondary market price is trending instead of booming upwards like all the new property launch. Secondary market price goes up because it's catching up with the price of new properties that is launch within the same area. If there is new property launch in BU at new record, then every other secondary unit there will trend accordingly but never will beat the price of those new properties. In the end, prices of all properties goes up because of more new properties being launch at higher price than the previous project. I dare not think how long this will last. Definitely won't go on forever.

Base on historical trend, economy is a cycle. It has its high, and it has its low. But problem is that no one will know where is the high or low is coming. Malaysia KLSE index is at:-
Feb 1997 - 1278
Aug 1998 - 403

Dec 2007 - 1452
Nov 2008 - 926

Seems like every 10 years we have economy cycle. Now only is 2014, so maybe we still have another 3 years to go. But then again, with all the sudden price hike and GST coming in 2015, maybe will that come much earlier? It's just anyone guess.

This is strictly my own point of view. Not looking to argue right or wrong. Just trying to contribute my own analysis.
Yup. I agree.
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+1 thumbup.gif Especially the comparison on landed vs high rise psf price
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 09:20 PM)
After QE tapering, expect effective bank interest rate returned to pre-2007 level i.e. 3% higher than current. New supply of property for demand created by flippers will be in surplus. Don't expect aggregate income to rise faster than inflation. Many dibs projects take vp within a short period of time. Property valuation is substantial lower than asking price due to auctioned price.

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That is the only events that will cause property crisis ? A mere 3% does it all ? I hope it is that simple and I hope you are right ! thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 10:20 PM)

If 3% higher as you said, then anyone paying a 500k loan over 35 years will have to pay 3406.99 monthly instead of 2397.34. That's a difference of RM 1009.65 or 42% additional every month for instalment. Ouch, that must be painful.
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https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3102196/+20

Please read post #23 to #34 some people's experience there. Will the bank alter monthly installment when BLR is up ?
Showtime747
post Jan 26 2014, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 10:46 PM)
Really? From my calculation, the max bank will be able to maintain the same payment and extend the tenure if interest only rises a maximum of 1%. Any figure higher than 1%, the same amount of instalment cannot even cover the interest portion. Basically that means the loan is ever increasing without an ending.

Perhaps their situation is different that they are taking a loan of less than 35 years. Maybe their loan tenure is 15-20 years. Perhaps you shall check on that.

If you like to do the calculation, you can go to:-
http://dailycalculators.com/mortgage-payoff-calculator

Put those in to get the monthly instalment amount.
Present Value: 500,000
Rate of Return: 4.6
Desired Months To Payoff: 420 (Which is 35 years)

You will get RM 2,397.34 for monthly instalment

After that, do this:
Present Value: 500,000 (Remain Same)
Rate of Return: 7.6 (Up by 3%)
Desired Monthly Payment: 2,397.34 (Maintain your instalment)

Now tell me if the calculator show you how long to pay off in months? This loan will never be able to pay off. Cause the interest is higher than the instalment.

If you don't believe the figure, then look at this amortization chart and see how much is the interest portion http://www.amortization-calc.com/#loan-500...35-7.6-1-2014-2
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Never doubted your calculation.

There are many variables that affect the calculation. Like you said, some will be having loans which is <35 years. But based on your parameters, the breakeven point where installment = interest portion of the loan is when the interest increase by 1.15%. Theoretically, bank could allow the same installment amount to run as usual if the interest rates increase by up to 1.15%.

Hence, assuming banks allow flippers to pay installment = interest cost, (ie no principal repayment for crisis period), then using your parameters, the interest cost is RM3166.67. The amount flippers need to top up for 3% interest rise is 3166.67 - 2397.34 = 769.33 pm. Theoretically lah tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 27 2014, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 26 2014, 11:29 PM)
For business loan, a friend of mine was allowed to service interest only as his loan amount was too big and his business failed. Is there a similar one for property loan ?
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In Australia there is "interest only" property loan. If crash happens in malaysia, that is another way BNM and banks can take to make NPL looks better
Showtime747
post Jan 27 2014, 08:22 AM

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Is it that difficult to google "Subprime mortgage crisis" ?

QUOTE
The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was a set of events and conditions that led to a financial crisis and subsequent recession that began in 2008. It was characterized by a rise in subprime mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, and the resulting decline of securities backed by said mortgages. These mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO) initially offered attractive rates of return due to the higher interest rates on the mortgages; however, the lower credit quality ultimately caused massive defaults.[1] While elements of the crisis first became more visible during 2007, several major financial institutions collapsed in September 2008, with significant disruption in the flow of credit to businesses and consumers and the onset of a severe global recession.


How to define subprime in USA ?

QUOTE
In finance, subprime lending (also referred to as near-prime, non-prime, and second-chance lending) means making loans to people who may have difficulty maintaining the repayment schedule, sometimes reflecting setbacks such as unemployment, divorce, medical emergencies, etc.[1] Historically, subprime borrowers were defined as having a FICO scores below 640, although "this has varied over time and circumstances."


FICO score

QUOTE
The FICO score is the best-known and most widely used credit score model in the United States. It was first introduced in 1989 by FICO, then called Fair, Isaac, and Company. The FICO model is used by credit reporting bureaus such as Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion to produce a FICO score. Because a consumer's credit report may contain different information at each of the bureaus, FICO scores can vary depending on which bureau provides the score.

Makeup of the FICO score
The approximate makeup of the FICO score used by US lenders

Credit scores are designed to measure the risk of default by taking into account various factors in a person's financial history. Although the exact formulas for calculating credit scores are secret, FICO has disclosed the following components:[3][4]

35%: Payment history—Late payments on bills, such as a mortgage, credit card or automobile loan, will cause a FICO score to drop.[5] Bills paid on time will improve a FICO score.[6]

30%: Credit utilization—The ratio of current revolving debt (such as credit card balances) to the total available revolving credit or credit limit. FICO scores can be improved by paying off debt and lowering the credit utilization ratio.[7] Alternatively, applications for and receiving the credit limit increase will also drive down the utilization ratio. Alternatively, opening new lines of credit will have the same effect (keep in mind the "Average age of tradelines" and "Hard inquiries" matrices on the last possibility). The closing of existing revolving accounts will typically adversely affect this ratio and therefore have a negative impact on a FICO score.

15%: Length of credit history—As a credit history ages it can have a positive impact on its FICO score.[8]

10%: Types of credit used (installment, revolving, consumer finance, mortgage)—Consumers can benefit by having a history of managing different types of credit.[9]

10%: Recent searches for credit—hard credit inquiries, which occur when consumers apply for a credit card or loan (revolving or otherwise), can hurt scores, especially if done in great numbers; often three to five points per inquiry. Individuals "rate shopping" for a mortgage or auto loan over a short period (a fortnight or 45 days, depending on whether old FICO or FICO 08 are used) will likely not experience a large decrease in their scores as a result of these types of inquiries, as automated computer algorithms attempt to detect when a consumer is rate shopping (and not attempting to receive many new lines of credit), and roll all of the hard inquiries into one; this can often take several months, and isn't always effective, although a consumer who believes he or she has received many hard inquiries on their report while searching for one loan (where the automated system has failed to detect it as such) can dispute these with the credit bureau in question.[10] While all credit inquiries are recorded and displayed on personal credit reports for two years (their effect decreases at the six-month and one-year mark; they have no real effect after the first year), credit inquiries that were made by the consumer (such as pulling a credit report for personal use), by an employer (for employee verification) or by companies initiating pre-screened offers of credit or insurance do not have any impact on a credit score: these are called "soft inquiries" or "soft pulls", and do not appear on a credit report used by lenders, only on personal reports.



BNM strict rulings and CCRIS checks essentially is the malaysia version of FICO. I suspect the current stringent of credit granting has cause the score to move to the 90s.
1. Payment history - those "0s" in CCRIS report
2. Credit utilisation - have you repaid down the outstanding loans. How many years to go
3. Length of credit history - to determine whether you are good paymaster
4. Types of credit used - list down the CC, car loan, personal loan, property loan
5. Recent searches for credit - all your existing application (not yet approved) are reflected in CCRIS

On top of that, BNM also has LTV 90%/70%, net income ruling, top up loan limited to 10 years, personal loan limited to 10 years etc

You guys judge for yourself if there is any resemblance of malaysian property loan to US subprime mortgage

Showtime747
post Jan 27 2014, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM)
If Malaysia property crash 50%/70%, "Subprime" is still not an appropriate word to be named
IMO, correct word is "Property market bubble and crisis"
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I agree with you. It is totally 2 difference scenario (if malaysia property market crash really happen in the future). At the point of giving out loans, the banks have vet through the borrowers' ability to service the loan and the borrowers are not "subprime" so to speak. Only when there is a mass unemployment problem, or crazy interest rate hikes like 1997/98 then borrowers will face difficulties paying installment. But there is nothing to do with "US sub prime". The extreme DDD people here are too obsessed with seeing a bubble burst. Every example like sub prime, Euro crisis, Japan deflation, Bkt Beruntung will be related to the next property crash tongue.gif
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post Jan 27 2014, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 11:17 AM)
If u and yr UUU buds r confident in the market?.... I suggest ALL in la..... drool.gif
Better than wasting time posting here right? brows.gif
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After BNM's curbing rulings, market is unsustainable and will go down. The worse case is stagnant. Why the hurry ? If there is a full blown crash, I will treat it as bonus thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 28 2014, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
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bearbear,

You should not be hanging here. Property investment does not suit your risk preference. If you are that pessimistic on investment, you can never invest in anything. You think too much. Or you should change job. Your job is affecting your life. No I am not trying to bash you. Just concern about you. Compare to other DDD people, you are way too pessimistic. At least they know when market collapse, it will recover. And it won't be RM100k in 10 years so little. If only RM100k in 10 years, nobody want to invest in property

In property investment, invest within your means. I agree there are some flippers who go for broke. Let them suffer. They will eventually. But for ordinary investors, don't expect to ride the wave at the highest point and get off at the lowest. We will never be able to time the market. While we all thought that the market is going to come down, they market may go up instead. We never know. Just like in 2008 Euro crisis. Everyone thought market will come down. But it just stagnant for a while and shot up
Showtime747
post Jan 28 2014, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 28 2014, 08:49 PM)
Just wanna add when i share my real experience of what i get in return from Amaya, DDD people claim that I am lying..come on!! They are just too negative but then claim they are being realistic...when i am telling real live events that is happening in my life and they are the ones who are being truthful but i am lying...

Then moderator delete that part of the comment where i finish him!!! Hey no one uses that phrase anymore? Finish him??

Yup 3 years ago DDD people say not to buy Amaya coz there is a bubble, i didnt listen, i bought anyway..now i regret not to convince more of the DDDs not to buy with me, and thats the truth. Btw the DDD i am saying is not in low yat forum but my real life friends.
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Bro, its different already now compare to 3 years ago. Not a time to be hero sweat.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 28 2014, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 28 2014, 10:09 PM)
I know but i think kajang landed 400k is a good buy. Subsale la dont aim for those recently launch condos. I mean dont say there are no properties that u cant afford when there is. I am not saying its u who said that, i mean other people in the forum
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You are not wrong. But no harm to wait a little longer right ? Chances of prices going down is more than going up now. And as always, there will be a better location and the next buy will be a better buy tongue.gif
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post Jan 28 2014, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(khaiyin @ Jan 28 2014, 10:35 PM)
The property market is dragging on its feet now with the prevalence of "wait and see" sentiment among buyers. Will the market pick up soon enough? Probably not until the second half of the year. smile.gif
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You are considered optimistic that price will pick up in the second half of the year tongue.gif There are too many factors which will cause the price to go down. Banks continue to tighten their grip to give loans, interest rate is expected to go up and RM depreciation will further affect our economy, are some of the factors.
Showtime747
post Jan 29 2014, 06:20 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 29 2014, 01:28 AM)
Repoman has the first hand info where and when to pick cheap and good property. With the right partner, repoman can be very rich from property market crash.
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Bro, is your dream coming true ? Interest rate increase by 4.25% in 1 decision thumbup.gif

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101359309



FLIPPERS BEWARE !!
Showtime747
post Feb 2 2014, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 2 2014, 06:58 PM)
When ringgit depreciates, we have imported inflation. With inflation comes higher cost of building which translates to higher property prices and hence if you own property now, you are hedged.
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When you WISH to see property price increase, you will justify whatever situation that will make property price increase.

Actually same applies to DDD camp tongue.gif

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