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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 26 2014, 10:54 AM)
auntie uncle no matter how uneducated also know to buy, rent out and keep.. or buy in cash and keep..
my uneducated grandpa who never been to school also know about buying land with cash and keep, buying shoplot with loan and rent out..

i dunno y the current gen y mentality is poorer than uneducated auntie uncle.. they tot uncle auntie buy with loan, keep without renting and sell with negative profit..  doh.gif
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I noticed the great diff between old timer investors vs econ experts = lesser bad news tat influenced the decision making vs too many analysts showing smart arses report tat stop u from buying but instead they accumulating / show u the gd news but instead disposing.

And tat is 0art of the reason y seasoned investors dun bother bout timing. Anytime is gd time to buy if u buy the right prop.
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 11:32 AM

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Cny soon. Why so doomed???
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(661188 @ Jan 26 2014, 06:56 AM)
These pipu has mental block and self deceived because can't afford buy house, i have seen many in real life.

when i chat with them they say hope house price will drop. well they can't afford now they can't afford even 20% drop. prolly hope for 50% drop like bearbear.

really pity them have to live in dream
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In a way they r. Dun spend too much time thinking. Decision making ability is a gift and is not for everyone. Spend more time exercising. Make sure one has more 10yrs than others. laugh.gif

ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 07:39 AM)
I did factor in this aspect but to my surprise that some people dun agree it.
IMO, if buy for own stay, rental shd be calculated in also, it is part of the savings
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Boss isn't tat the correct way to calculate??? I dun wanna let those marney sacking analysts to decide direction of my investment. I still use the evergreen but obsolete way. Cocr, interest, rental, tax. Simple and nice. But I'm not sure wat r they looking for. Maybe the palace with rumah papan price. brows.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 11:59 AM

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Curry mee was 10 cents. Tats fact. It was 30yrs ago. But smaller portion in school.
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 26 2014, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 26 2014, 08:31 PM)
Other than sentimental reason, there is no reason to own property when price/annual rental is more than 20.
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It's vely personal wo. One can say no need to own props envy another who owns dozen of props. Another can insist owning props advising those havnt started buying.

Vely personal boss. It won't harm if holding 10mil upon retirement without any risk of investments goin down. It's not gonna hurt to when holding 30 debt free props but onli 1mil cash for retirement. If few props not rented out, it's not gonna giv any trouble. But ll b hard to hav all props unable to rent out. If it's so, then I oso wish to know how to do it. laugh.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 27 2014, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM)
I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
My LTV stands at 43% now
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Bank is not so silly to simply giv out loan la.

My case:

Last yr bot 3 props under 1 dev. Few banks hav so many queries tat 2 of the banks even called up dev asking for formal confirmation on the units I purchased. Reason being I applied fr 6 banks and the ccris suddenly popped up many application. So they wanna make sure I din take loan for more than 3 props I claimed purchase.

Thereafter, trying to get another in a new launching. Applied onli 4 banks. 1 of the bank advised dun go for any mortgage or loan regardless indi or company loan. Hard to get. The best is bank ll top up my company OD facility to another 2 mil and ask me to use it for the 1st 40%-50% until I can get a loan maybe 2 yrs later.

I reckon bank is rather play safe now. Hard to c a hard landing now. sweat.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM

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If banks down, the mee goreng ll b up then. bruce.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 27 2014, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM)
Biasalah...
A few hardcore DDD always say "UUU camp says market always up, forever up and no corrections"
p/s : I damn miss the GOLD fella lah, he knows m goin to screw him for th PIGS (Euro crisis)
biggrin.gif
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He is here. With diff nick. He knows wat v did last summer........oopsi.......last CNY I mean brows.gif sweat.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 28 2014, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 07:41 AM)
shop leh.. generating income.. 16 k though bit high unless really mature areas... ur shop berapa tingkat? 20 x70? or only ground flooritself di 16k? 16 k return.. this shop maybe around 3.5 million to 4.5 million... lowyat ah?
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3 tingkat boss. But the 16k is for grd nia. The upper flr command another 8k for both 1st n 2nd. tongue.gif

But y lowyat le??? Onli lowyat plaza can giv gd rental??? Dun think so wo. Many other potential areas oso if u look harder. flex.gif

Btw, boss, guess u r looking at too many auction thingy liao. Most of the auction props r not the super prime units. And pls note that most prime area units r being snapped b4 banks can place it in auction. icon_rolleyes.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 28 2014, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 10:07 PM)
Look like u oso think property is good investment. Only thing is below 500k property. Which project u refer to ? And Y u think tis project got potential ?
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Hope the 500k bro bear mentioned is not 400sf which is 1.25kpsf.
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 30 2014, 09:30 AM

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Prop is onli risky if its with huge loan. Those hav more than 50% cash up front or reserve in flexi loan r vely safe. laugh.gif

Stock market ll onli kill if playing margin. Most r trading stocks in cash la. Buying sthg in cash can onli lose the diff in between. Worst is burned lo. Back in 97, those jump fr 14th flr losing $$$ in stocks r playing margin ma. Some small % of players either kept it or cut lose. My neighbour even make a handsome few mil back in 97 in MBB counter. rclxms.gif

Seasoned investors wont die so easily la. Of cos can deny the fact tat there r few gungho wan stil failed in 97. tongue.gif

Fast forward to 2017, another 3 yrs to go. Sure there r some happy guys and some jumpers fr 14th flr. sweat.gif

icon_rolleyes.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 30 2014, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 12:03 PM)
Actly I try to say. Property vs stock. The risk on stock is higher but can make money faster. Borrow or cash buy is diff story.

U dun play margin of coz will be low risk. Coz u can hold share. Pls be reminded listed comp can be disappear, 5 share become 1 share. Right ?
U buy land. Can land disappear ?. Or 5 acres become 1 acres?. If really die u still got the land. Right? If share really die.. Share become toilet paper. Right?  biggrin.gif
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In short. High risk high return ma. Any got no risk??? Even driving balik kampung got risk. But how not to balik le??? tongue.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Jan 30 2014, 05:02 PM

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CNY liao all bosses here. Manyak yg upupup in boland recently. However, regardless of prop up or down, hujan stil turun. No worries.

Gong xi fa chai.
ManutdGiggs
post Feb 1 2014, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 11:44 AM)
foreclosure different ball game liao... asking price cannot quote liao.. evrytime bo bidder.. drop 10 percent.. if got ppl bid then ok.. some place no one want to bid..
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Tats the key issue. Loc is so important in prop.
ManutdGiggs
post Feb 1 2014, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 01:48 PM)
U agree dat outskirt project gone.. if loc is imp
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Define outskirts pls. U might hav diff definition to mine. hmm.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Feb 1 2014, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 04:25 PM)
Our 2 big brothers.. echo hillzz and south vxxlii.. consider ah?
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Err, my definition of loc is important is slightly diff. U ll find superb prime units in bangsar but at the same time some units tat nobody wan in bangsar park. Both species r loc in bangsar, vely prime within KV. U can oso find most shops in kajang undesirable but there r few tat come with vely gd rental tat the owners r not selling even tempted with high offer.

I blif there r gems in all areas. Loc of the unit one is holding is so important. And I beg to differ fr ur pov of bkt tak untung. Many failed in buying resi there. But some make such handsome profit investing the industrial lands there. To them bkt tak untung is so untung. Guess u as a repoman should able to provide some real life examples bout it rather than onli some of the lelong cases??? Btw I notice klcc oso has auction fr owners which is a gd sign rather than bad sign. To add to it, onli few owners doin it.
ManutdGiggs
post Feb 1 2014, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 04:43 PM)
Oh ur loc is that term.. yup I agree.. even kajang.. taiping.. semenyih.. seri kembangan.. ipoh.. kampar.. can be good loc.. but certain spot in the prine area.. but some area /loc are not even in ur list.. likewise stated above.. even it is it shall not interest you.. coz u need to wait..

rental yields in shop are for high end/long term investment
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I'm having 0% knowledge in resi other than own stay units. I only know shop factory and land. Not even ofis play. It's no surprise my prime differ fr ur prime.
ManutdGiggs
post Feb 1 2014, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 04:55 PM)
Wah dailou.. these are big players..  bangi hub there many semi d factory..sg chua oso has semi d factory..
I m zero in industries.. but srmenyih many factory one..
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Bangi n semenyih have some real gems in industrial props.
ManutdGiggs
post Feb 2 2014, 07:47 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 2 2014, 01:37 AM)
Pros & Cons .... hmmmm ?
It really depends on your CURRENT economic situation and the central banks objectives. The noble objective is to have economic stability so business can run as usual.

Using foreign reserves:
The main purpose of foreign reserve is to support own currency. Msia and other emerging countries learnt their lesson during the Asian Eco Crisis. Thus, BNM using it now for that purpose is correct... imo.

As for the other countries.... maybe their foreign reserves are not strong OR there is no perceived bubble in their economy.... I'm just guessing. This deeply depends on their export capability. If your export is good, your foreign currencies holding is more. So weaker currency improves export which translate to improve foreign reserves. BNM may let RM be low for awhile in order to replenish the foreign reserves required to purchase their bonds.

Using Interest Rate:
Increase interest rates helps to bring back hot money into their economy hence raise their currencies. It's like Bank A give 5% in FD while Bank B give 3%.... ppl will deposit their money in Bank A. So in this sense, we are looking at countries. However, this have side effects.

Raising interest rate will also slows down economy. Businesses may hire less or opt for VSS if the financial obligation is too high. Since 2008 subprime crisis, interest rate has become impotent tool to balance the economy. Quantitative Easing (QE) by USA also make it really difficult. Printing money (QE) flood the world with cheap money (low interest rate), inflating bubbles in every sector of investment vehicle. Top 3 economies in the world are doing that .... USA, CHIna & Japan. China is different that they peg Reminbi lower to USD.

Central banks need to play a balance game with a correct interest rate. But with boom and bust in economy, this is getting harder to dampen the swings. However, I believe BNM is prudent. They kept BLR at 6.x% for sometime. However, banks were lending out BLR - 2.x% giving an effective rate of 4.x%. This is due to QE earlier mentioned. Competition with cheap money. BNM is coming out with new framework for housing loans. Base Lending RAte (BLR) means BASE or the lowest rate. Banks broke that rule.....  icon_idea.gif

That's why economist with Austrian and Minsky background cry foul when Fed Reserve (USA) started QE. They expected FED to increase interest rate instead.  rclxub.gif
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Vely well said. Beta than many cut not paste articles provided previously. Bravo boss.

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