It is really difficult to time the market. Your better bet is to cost average ensuring you're not buying at the top or bottom of the end.

AAPL's market share has been dropping all over the places. Ipod is dying. Iphone world wide market share is likely around 10-12% now. It will definitely below 10% by the end of this year. Ipad world wide market share has been down to 30%. I expect we will see it hovering around 15-20% by the end of this year. Unless they can create a brand new market by themselves, I don't see we will ever see another big run up we saw in the past. Don't get me wrong, it will continue milking the uninformed customers for the years to come (just like MSFT).

I spent a lot of time researching what's the next best thing. After so many years, I came to a conclusion that the best strategy is passive investing -- couch potato strategy. Last year was phenomenon, I don't expect seeing repeating result again this year. For the extra time and energy I save, it is well worth it.

Cheers.

Did you expect to see a big gain? I didn't. In fact, I think we have seen the high of AAPL back in 2012. Their markets have been attacked by competitors. Iphone's market share may likely fall to single digit by end of this year. Ipad may go down to 15-20% end of this year. Ipod is done. Mac .... I think the sales of Mac is a function of sales of iphone/ipad. How about iwatch .... how many people are wearing watches? How about itv? TV market is very competitive, I wouldn't want to spend $0.01 extra to have apple logo in front of the TV. How about 5" iphone? That may work but it depends on the pricing. They can't be continue having a high premium on their products. I think the only market keeping iphone alive is USA. Iphone is way too small. I kept saying iphone is designed for kids and women's hands. When I see a big guy holding an iphone, it is like seeing a big guy wearing 2-sized smaller t-shirt.

You may ask ... why don't I short it? I'm too chicken. It is too much risk given the rewards. Not my taste.

Don't get me wrong though. AAPL as a company will continue doing well for the years to come. However, we are not likely to see the explosive growth in this company ever again. It is too big. The company will continue milking billions of dollars for the years to come. Just like microsoft .... but I like microsoft better because it is a more diversified company.

I didn't like rim/blackberry because it is a one product company. I don't like AAPL, because, no matter how you slice it, it is still a one product company. Sure enough it has iphone, ipad, ipod, ipod mini -- they are just iphone in different sizes. itunes -- I read their financial report years ago, it only contributed a small percentage to their bottom line. The majority of their bread and butter is coming from iphone (and all the different sizes of it -- including ipad, etc). I don't like one product company.

It is the quantitative easing that is pumping the asset bubbles outside of USA. I *think* the first few things will happen when the fed stops the quantitative easing, the bubbles will burst -- slowly depends on the asset class. Financial markets are most liquid, it will go first. It will get to real estate eventually. If you think your million dollar properties can continue going up in price, think again.

Once Fed starts to raise interest rates, it will be ugly I think. I don't think it will happen that soon -- the earliest is likely end of 2014. Likely mid to end of 2015. Liquidity will disappear in emerging markets quickly unless interest rate is raised. If central bank decides to raise interest rates, all in the sudden your cheap loans are more expensive to service. Real estate price will come down. I don't think this will happen overtime -- but slowly.

I have to admit that I'm biased against real estate. I witnessed what happened to my dad during the financial crisis in 97/98. At one point he has over 20 properties. He kept buying. He once told me if anything happens, he could sell a few properties to pay off all the loans if need to. When the crisis hit, he waited a few months and then started trying to sell a few properties. Nothing was moving at that time. He couldn't sell but at the same time he couldn't afford to service the debts. Banks are forcing the sales at super discount. Selling a few are not enough to pay back all the properties he owned. Eventually we lost ALL. Sorry for the grim story on CNY.

Happy CNY.