SPX penetrating neutral zone 1974-1978

Would definitely short Herbalife this joker by loading up PUTs....nevertheless, they are reserved for AAPL play later.

Closing SPY call for a minor profit to fullfill the nafsu of intraday trading. Enough to ...hm.....er...pay for a month's petrol..... /facepalm

OX charge USD9.95 per transaction

Loading YUM Call options because KFC's fried chicken is a lot better than A&W's,MCD's,Ah NeNe's,Ah Beng's unless there is Malay Brand Fried Chicken out there.

That CMG's earning result is speechless

AAPL's key component suppliers:
QCOM, SNDK, SWKS, NUAN, BRCM, CRUS, TQNT, AVGO, GTAT, SNE, STM, NTE, and LPL

MSFT misses by $0.05, beats on revs

stock trading upward AH

PBYI Puma Biotechnology Inc spikes over 100% following positive top line results on Phase III trial (for adjuvant breast cancer)

stock price $59->$147 (AH)................... that's....... erhmm... the powa of bio stock

And AAPL stock price hopping up and down AH

AAPL's ER doesn't look bad at all, even though the co issues downside guidance for Q4 rev,$37-40bln vs $40.46 and gross margin 37-38% vs 37.5%. If major market especially small caps take the lead, stock could bounced off from AH's low $93.81. Else could see serious bounce off play from its 50dma 90.92. Oh lord, bless my call options.

Are we allowed to post a few forum/web links for reading purpose prior to market open in this thread?

It's a narrow escape for my AAPL call in this case.

Just to share a few infos regarding options play on this stock (for thos who haven't or about to trade options)

1) The Implied Volatility plays a major part in options pricing. Using the CBOE calculator, one can easily work out that:
a) Stock Price = $97.66
b) Strike Price = 100
c) Expiration Date = Aug 16th , 2014
d) Days to Expiration = 23
e) Volatility = 32% (from OX quote)

The option value should be $2.19 ( or at least $2.00). However, given the stock just announced its earning yesterday AMC, the actual option value as of 10:50 am USTZ was $1.09 (WTFBBQ). Thus, replacing the actual option price on the calculator, you get an IV of 20.84% (farking low). That literally cut down the option value by 50%.

2) Yesterday when I bought the options, it was $0.87 in the early hours (before noon that is). It closed at $1.03 with a handsome $3k. However, due to the in-line+downside guidance the stock traded as low as $93.81 after market hours. I did post my own view on the stock's earnings (@today 5:20am USTZ post#1320: AAPL's ER doesn't look bad at all, even though the co issues downside guidance for Q4 rev,$37-40bln vs $40.46 and gross margin 37-38% vs 37.5%. If major market especially small caps take the lead, stock could bounced off from AH's low $93.81. Else could see serious bounce off play from its 50dma 90.92. Oh lord, bless my call options) and stock traded as high as $95.88 (@8:00am USTZ) .

3) Despite the stock opened at $95.61 (+$0.91), the actual option value dropped from $1.03 to $0.55 (ffs!!). I have to admit that it was one of the lousiest feeling I have encountered over the pass few weeks. $20600 dropped to $11000 (excluding commisions which is $400). Had I purchased weekly options which expired this Friday, even with the stock rallied to intraday high of $97.88, I would still loose money base on the actual implied volatily.

4) Lesson learnt: It's always better to trade pre/post earnings than holding options into earnings on big stocks. However, for smaller stock (market cap<3B) options with longer expiration should be priority in order to profit even from a loosing position if you are into earning play. (see post #1276 on WWW options)

5) One more thing: I closed my AAPL position two candles after it hit intraday high @$97.88 (5min timeframe). Reason: On 3rd candle, it opened at $97.45 and continued to rally up till $97.60 and I decided to close the position due to lower volume and /ES, /NQ, /TF loosing fuel. Always closed a call position when the stock is rallying rather than when it's dropping and killing the IV+options value at the same time, vice versa.

Enjoy the screenshot:

Yup, it's the first ER post 7-1 stock split, hence I have no confidence it will either breakup/down. I do believe the stock will rise due to the ongoing product development especially the iWatch which I think no other brand in this world will beat it's design. However, having said that, I did a huge mistake in this case by assuming the post-ER Implied Volatility is within 10%, ie: it was 40% yesterday and "with proper statistical study by at least 5 years timeframe it should be 30% today". The assumption was correct, what displayed on the options quote screen from TOS and OX was perfectly match to an extend of 30.4% when the market opened; but the actual value displayed on the option pricing, was not. It was totally a farkedup trade I would say, absolutely horrible. There isn't any option pricing model out there which will provide this kinda result. I am still searching for the right answer atm.


Whilst there are many things to explore, what I have just shared was a lesson I paid about 8 years ago that cost me a RM100k loss due to the fact that I was introduced to options by a con-man guru who didn't care about Implied Volatilty (IV). The terminology itself, just save you USD3000 from a four-day course which didn't mention about IV. And here's my tips for you: IV's value varies by seconds , ignore those shallow definition from investopedia or textbooks written by people who didn't trade the real market.

This post has been edited by Brother J: Jul 24 2014, 01:45 AM

Scaling some SPY puts

Intraday high on SPY does not confirm with NYSE A-D line, oh~lala

yup, if that happen I will close the position EOD, else will ride on till tmr before noon

See my #1342 post, I already started loading puts @12:10

I have to admit OX chart sucks lol