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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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dreamer101
post Dec 23 2013, 09:40 PM

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Hi,

If interest rate goes up and the monthly installment increases, this could cause problem for some people. But, isn't there housing loan out there where even if the interest rate went up, the monthly installment stay the same. The only changes are the tenure increases?? Please enlighten me.

Thanks.

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dreamer101
post Dec 23 2013, 10:08 PM

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QUOTE(forever1979 @ Dec 23 2013, 10:03 PM)
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forever1979,

<< However, this make thing worst as borrowers are paying more interest end of the day. >>

Yes. But, most people do not have the cash flow to handle the increase in monthly installment.

<< that is why when BLR increase, bank stock counter also shot up, more profits earns.>>

Assuming the NPL does not increase tremendously...

Based on how much Malaysians borrowed to sustain their life styles, it should not take much to increase NPL.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Dec 28 2013, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 10:28 PM)
At a few sales office I visited, the sales managers told me that their material prices are expected to go up in 2014, and they are planning to increase the price slightly while cutting down the size slightly too in their 2014 launches.

It is logical to expect that 2H 2014 launches will be more expensive than 1H 2014 launch, as more material/fuel/labour/tax costs kick in.  By Q4 2014, I expect most of the GST cost would have factored into the price.

I didn't see a lot of launches in Q4 2013 and this could have contributed to the lower market activity.  If I were buying for own stay, this few months in early next year is the best period to look around for the best deal.
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BTimes,

1) Is the property price strongly related to the material price or supply versus demand situation??

2) Can a sales manager tell you that the price of house will drop even it is true??

3) Will a person break his own rice bowl to tell you the truth??

4) Or, let me ask you a reverse question?? Is the property price increasing FASTER than the overall inflation rate?? If the answer is yes, then, the property price is not strongly tie to inflation rate.

I do not know whether the property price will go up or down. But, neither what a sales manager say or price of material will matter into consideration.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Dec 28 2013, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 11:54 PM)
You could be right that I'm too optimistic.  Holding power is indeed the key.  You might wish to consider getting a cheaper/smaller landed e.g. 20x70 terrace in a good neighbourhood in the suburb.  It is just a matter of time the city expands and growth enters the suburbs.  Chinese tend to love properties more, so I think Chinese community areas have good potential for price appreciation.
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BTimes,

Chinese is emigrating out of Malaysia. So, why would Malaysian Chinese buy more properties in Malaysia?? Or, are you talking about non-Malaysian Chinese??

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dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 28 2013, 11:55 PM)
More likely property prices here has reached its peak and likely correct.

What I don't agree with is a property crash.
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tat3179,

What is a crash?? A drop of 10%?? 20%?? 30%?? 40%?? 50%??

Given that the property price had went up by 80% over the last few years and Malaysian's income did not went up by 80% over the last few years,

A) So, the property price increase is not sustainable by local people.

B) Can you safely assume that there is enough foreign demand to sustain this??

C) Or, you are assuming that there are enough oversea Malaysians that come back to retire in Malaysia??

You have to look at the property market as 2 separate markets: Local market and foreign market.

1) Property that will only be bought local people.

2) Property that has demand from both local and foreigner

And, there are overlap between them.

I do not know the answers. I have only questions.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 29 2013, 12:04 AM)
Your information is interesting.  Any data to share?  I believe overall is still increasing but the proportion is dropping as other races are growing much faster.

http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/images...s_2010-2040.pdf
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BTimes,

I do not know the statistics. My family lived in Klang for 150+ years. Almost every single family in Klang has one or more family members emigrated oversea. And, for those that are here, they are planning either for themselves to emigrate and or their children to emigrate. This applies to all races but since there are more Chinese in Klang, the majority that leaves are Chinese. The trend is speeding up in recent years.

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dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:00 AM)
Plenty of Chinese emigrate, earn foreign currencies and reinvest some of their monies here.

Why? Because Malaysian props to them is damn cheap
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tat3179,

Whatever it is, we can pretty much agree that the demand is not sustainable by local people with local income.

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dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 12:56 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:17 AM)
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tat3179,

<< Firstly, I think property prices will likely correct itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them. >>

Okay. How big do you think the correction will be?? Given that property price went up 80% but overall income level is stagnant or up by less than 20%, the correction should be 80% - 20% = 60%??

Is 60% = a crash??

<<Secondly, unlike US banks, our banks did not lend out money for mortgages recklessly, the US banks lent out billions to NINJA borrowers. Our banks are much more strict and BNM did a good job controlling them for the past few years.>>

A) But, the LARGEST RECKLESS SPENDER in Malaysia is THE GOVERNMENT that are seriously in debt.

B) How much POLITICAL LOAN on our bank?? That was THE PROBLEM on our banks during 97/98...

Dreamer



dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 08:58 AM)
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tat3179,

<< Government recklessness has no real bearing on prop prices really. That is a different subject altogether. >>

Come on... The GOVERNMENT is the largest single employer in Malaysia. Plus, 50+% of KLSE is owned GLC and GLIC.

A) If THE GOVERNMENT is running out of money, it will not affect the property market?? At the minimum, those civil servants and GLC employees pay raise and bonuses will reduce. This will reduce demand.

B) THE GOVERNMENT will borrow / get money from the public and reduce the amount of money that public has to spend. This will reduce demand.

C) If THE GOVERNMENT has to borrow beyond EPF and so on, it will drive up interest rate. This does not affect property market??

In fact, I will say that THE GOVERNMENT is the SINGLE LARGEST FACTOR that affect Malaysia property market.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 09:15 AM)
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tat3179,

<<The government when short of money will impose gst, raid the EPF if necessary, and cut subsidies, increasing prices, like what it is doing now.>>

And, that will not reduces the Malaysians' disposable income and consequently property demand??

<<Anyway, if you want to rant about the gomen, shouldn't you do it in RWI?>>

We are discussing property market here. You know all those stuff are being done by the government. And, somehow you do not think that it will impact the property market??? How does this make any sense??

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Dec 29 2013, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 11:10 AM)
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tat3179,

You are assuming that whatever happened in Malaysia is sustainable.

<< Yes, there is lots of poor in this country, but you also ignore e fact that Malaysia still has a sizable but squeezed middle class, and also quite a few wealthy ones.>>

And, they are sustained by what?? How much are they dependent on the government?? Let's put it this way, you and I do not know. Let's hope that you are betting correctly...

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Dec 29 2013, 11:41 AM
dreamer101
post Dec 31 2013, 11:18 PM

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Folks,

Landed versus condo...

Come on.. This is so basic.. It is universal across the world

1) If you are given the choice, would you rather stay at landed property or condo??

2) During property boom, it is easier and quicker to build a lot of condos. Hence, the supply of condo increases more rapidly that landed. Hence, during a boom, the condo price went up not as fast the landed property during to oversupply.

3) During a bust, people can afford to buy landed property versus condo since landed is cheaper.

4) There a lot of negative associated with condo living. If most owners in a condo building do not pay their maintenance fee, the condo maintenance will go down hill. So, how are you going to live there?? Landed does not have this problem.

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dreamer101
post Jan 1 2014, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(Sikit2JadiBukit @ Jan 1 2014, 12:01 AM)
2. don't think so. even condo and landed within few km radius but the condo < 500m to LRT, the condo can increase as high in terms of %.

3. don't think so. when burst, landed generally have the stronger resistance unless the condo walk-able to LRT.
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Sikit2JadiBukit,

2) If both locations (landed and condo) are close to LRT, which one will went up more?? Please noted that supply of landed is always lower than condo. Hence, it will went up more.

3) We are saying the same thing. In a bust, landed will still be more desirable and hence will be lowered as much as condo.

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dreamer101
post Jan 1 2014, 01:16 AM

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QUOTE(Sikit2JadiBukit @ Jan 1 2014, 12:56 AM)
3. Not sure why you say landed cheaper during burst but later claim landed higher resistance. It's self contradicting.
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Sikit2JadiBukit,

3) Landed is cheaper during bust than the boom. Hence, it is more affordable to buy.

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dreamer101
post Jan 1 2014, 11:11 AM

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Folks,

I have no idea whether the property bubble will bust in 2014. But, given that the house price had gone up much much faster than the general income level of Malaysians, many houses are no longer affordable for Malaysians. So, the questions come down to where and who can support the demand since it is not supported by local income. Now, some people assume that returning Malaysians working oversea, Singaporean, unofficial income and so on can support the demand. I do not know whether this is true or not.

So, this is THE QUESTION that anyone want to invest in Malaysian property market need to answer for themselves.

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dreamer101
post Jan 1 2014, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Jan 1 2014, 06:30 PM)
Thanks for your observation. The potential demand is HUGE in the coming years. Potential demand either in renting, or if they can afford, subsale purchase.

Huge shortage in housing supply. How can price come down?
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Martinis,

The DEMAND can only exists if those young people are EMPLOYED with GOOD INCOME. If they are earning peanuts, how could they afford anything??

People with LOW or NO INCOME does not generate property demand.

Dreamer

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