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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment
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PradaLee
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Nov 22 2013, 11:13 AM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(kohts @ Nov 21 2013, 03:04 PM) Those which has not bought will have hard time getting loans and no dibs. Those which has bought is enjoying the facilities now. I fail to understand why those who has not bought is the winner. From before until now, banks approve loan base on a person ability to pay base on income track record. It is not given out as wanton as some thinks. Bank more afraid loaners cannot pay, so i also fail to understand why those believe that with the implementation, suddenly a lot of people cannot pay n price collapse. Bank negara in setting the rates also have the data of loaners paying capability n will be fully aware of the npl risk if they increase the rate. New property price will be stagnant which will be the ceiling for subsales. Inf fact it may help flippers as there is no.different in buying subsale or new launches. Sounds reasonable.
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PradaLee
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Nov 29 2013, 09:47 AM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 08:45 AM) There are 2 results to be considered here. One is the price of new launches (which is still UUU cuz of greedy developers and herd mentality buyers) and the other is the price of subsales or secondary market which has stagnated in some areas since early this year already. Even in MK, prices of the bigger condo's have been on the decline / stagnating since end 2012. What do you think cause this mismatch between new launches and secondary markets? If buying from new launches is dangerous, when market corrects, do you think subsales will be spared? In other words, which is more likely: Subsales catching up with new launches prices in 2 to 3 years(of course, new launches prices are assumed to be even higher then) OR new launch prices coming down to subsale levels upon VP ( meaning subsales are quite OK even if there is a correction)?
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PradaLee
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Nov 29 2013, 10:37 AM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 29 2013, 09:59 AM) imo, the mismatch is primarily due to the urge to buy new with little cash - mostly to flip. go back 2-4 years, when a relatively new unit was subselling at 500k, the frenzy was to buy similar at 600k from developer. obvious enough what the motive is. i see subsale catching up but prices may not move up - for a good few years. new builds will not be priced lower. developers simply slow or stop launching. and that is the scary part - other than the biggest, some of them will have to release staff and maybe abandon projects. chain effect may start. New launches are now priced at RM700psf onwards e.g Sqwhere(subpar location). Assuming a crisis hit, what will developers do? They will most likely stop launching. Assuming prices for subsale go down 20% from RM600psf to RM480psf in locations like Kota Damansara, at what price will developers price their launching once everything stabilises but have not recovered? Will they price lower than 700psf in areas like Kota Damansara( remember that Tropicana Gardens are at about 1,000psf or more now. If no, how do you expect subsales to fall any further?
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PradaLee
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Nov 29 2013, 11:42 AM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 11:27 AM) Developers can put whatever price they want and usually the herd mentality of ppl will ensure that sales are good. But in the event of a property slump, developers will usually delay launches. Why do u think developers were rushing to launch this year? They know what's coming in the future long before anybody else and that's why almost all major developers with large tracts of land were rushing to develop the land before the crunch. The developments hardest hit will be those whos investors do not have financial strength to withstand a slump. Yes, developers can put whatever price they want as long as they can sell. After a crash, if launching prices then are unlikely to go below 700psf due to various reasons amongst them land cost or inflation or whatever, then sooner or later subsale supply will dry up as there are no cheap launching.How then can one lose if one were to buy at subsale price now? What is the downside of buying subsale now? I don't care whether those who buy at high prices from developers will suffer later but for those holding on to their poperties purchased through subsale, whats the risk?
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PradaLee
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Nov 29 2013, 07:54 PM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 11:49 AM) It all depends on the entry price for that area. There is no blanket price range. You will only make money or lose money when you sell the property. As long as you have the holding power, it doesn't matter if property prices in your area drop 50%. Sooner or later prices will recover. Property prices are always in cycles. There will be up's and downs. The rule of thumb is never buy at the peak or just before a slump (which is now). Right now, banks are very conservative in their valuations of property prices because nobody knows how bad the impact of the slump is gonna be. Nobody knows if prices will correct 5% or 25%. But areas with a glut of condo's will be hardest hit. Of course, nobody wants to buy just before a slump. The problem is nobody knows if the slump is coming soon. Areas with glut of condos is also subjective. I am interested in Kota Damansara/TTDI/Damansara Utama/PJ area. Do you think there is a glut of condos there?
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PradaLee
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Nov 29 2013, 11:38 PM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 08:01 PM) Yes nobody knows but the signs are all there. If ure a smart investor, u will be able to read the signs. Kota Damansara is a glut area and will be hit hard the same with MK and KLCC areas. How badly is left to be seen. TTDI and Bandar Utama are mature areas and usually hold their value well. For Kota Damansara, I don't see how there is a glut. Not sure about studios but there are hardly any new condos coming up. Can you explain why you think there is a glut of condos in Kota Damansara?
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PradaLee
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Nov 30 2013, 12:02 AM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 29 2013, 11:52 PM) If you have reinvested your profit back to properties, until liquidation with cash in bank account, it is only a paper profit. So you mean to say Warren Buffet or Li Ka Shing or whoever is worth only a pittance because they have not liquidated their shares or properties? This is just pure jealousy by those who missed the boat who try to convince either themselves or others or both that, really, they haven't missed a thing. You should know that mark to market is the only logical way of calculating net worth. You can discount the market value a bit to be prudent but please dun say things like you ain't made nothing until you liquidate.
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