Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed
12 Pages « < 3 4 5 6 7 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

views
     
gspirit01
post Dec 24 2013, 09:06 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 14 2013, 12:23 PM)
Oh dear! A good friend of mine bought an apartment early this year when they had the promotion at a hotel. With all the goodies (free SPA fee, loan interest etc). Yes, all these freebies are already included in the selling price.

I stayed away from it as there are just too many apartments there and getting tenants later will be a struggle with the over supply. I may be wrong. Wait and see.

Cheerio.
*
Seems like a lot of people will be hit by johor scheme.
gspirit01
post Dec 25 2013, 03:17 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 25 2013, 12:38 PM)
I had a look at PropertyGuru web site last night and I think my mind is playing tricks on me, the prices appear to be slightly lower than 6 months ago. Ha. May be they are the same as 6 months ago but with the bubble burst forecast/hope in some people's mind, one will "see" what one hopes to see. Ha.

Your view on recent RE prices?

Cheerio.
*
I am tracking some prop from several months back. Condo psf has been dropping! Landed is stagnating or dropping somewhat. However, there are some who actually increase their sell prices, despite their prop have been listing for sometimes. Can't understand the rationales behind. If it is not selling until now, how would increasing their sell prices help ?
gspirit01
post Dec 26 2013, 12:33 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 26 2013, 10:17 AM)
Should be 288 residency.
I know owner only getting key on November or December but I saw it on Auction list already,  anyway I am not interest that particular condo.

I know u have some unsold unit & dead worry price will tumble, no need to white washing the present senario. .lol
*
My guess that the owner buy more than one prop at many locations. When one falls, it is like dominos!

Just my guess.
gspirit01
post Dec 26 2013, 08:01 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 26 2013, 07:37 PM)
Saw this a few minutes ago (from Bank Negara).

[attachmentid=3786889]

Having one housing loan is already a concern for me, my salute to those with 3 or more housing loans!

If you have the 2013 report from BNM, please share. Thanks.
*
Tq for sharing! Looks like many people were trapped!
gspirit01
post Dec 27 2013, 10:17 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 24 2013, 09:36 AM)
If dead chicken is coming, would you pick it up ?

Assuming there is a crash of price by 25%, and the price stop falling and maintaining for the next 3 yrs (Optimistic assumption, in reality, the price will keep falling!):

1st yr, 0% up
COCR (w/rent) =  -40%

2nd yr, 0% up 
COCR (w/rent)  =  -48%

3rd yr, 0% up 
COCR (w/rent)  =  -46%
*
Somebody must be brave and hv deep pocket to pick up dead chicken!
gspirit01
post Dec 28 2013, 11:55 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
For monthly rm6200/mon.

Quick est:

Epf n income tax - 600 + 500
Car loan - 800
500k loan - 2500

Remain - 1800 for everything else. Taugh life in big city!

If working for people, 6200 is for manager and above. Poor middle income.

50% of household should live in apt or condo:
http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/03/28/av...me-hits-rm5000/

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Dec 28 2013, 12:03 PM
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 01:46 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Like it or not, all of us here are a subset of the whole population. If you believe in statistics, our views here actually do reflect what is the major trend in the market. What I observed so far:

The usual optimistic investors here are not buying in the near future, and waiting for things to get clearer or dead chickens of at least 15 to 20% discount.

The pessimistic investors here are expecting prices to come down, or even a crash. So, they are not buying.

What I can conclude now is that prop prices now are stagnant, pending for next trend. As nobody is taking any action. In fact, future is being shaped now by future buyers and sellers. If people are not buying or supporting at this point, won't the collapse of overcommitted flippers trigger a reverse trend ? For my observation of trading, trading trends are like running train. When it goes up, nothing can stop it rises. Only when it runs out of momentum, it stops. When it comes down, it will run over anyone, anything in its way.

It is simpler to see this in stock market. Buyers and sellers set their prices. Only when one crosses over, deal is made. Flippers are like highly geared speculators. When they are forced sold, it wipes out all queued buys. In this case, queued buys (optimistic investors waiting for dead chicken) won't be there unless there is at least 15-20% discount. All human tries to protect their resources. When prices do reverse, the instinct is to wait for things to settle down, even now. Hence, I doubt that when dead chicken is shown, whether there is anyone picking it up.

Does anybody know that losing a lot of money is actually as painful as cutting yourself bleeding ?

http://www.webmd.com/balance/news/20070502...ally-be-painful
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 02:21 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 30 2013, 02:00 PM)
I do get your point there but I would rather say, that if there is dead chicken, will there be anyone capable of picking it up. With the current economic slowdown, a lot of people would be either not be having enough cash or those who have would rather be saving them from rainy days. Business people who experience slowdowns in their business would rather be thinking of conserving or maintaining their cash flow so as to equip their business for any uncertainties coming. The crash in 1996 did result in a lot of "underpriced" properties as people were to heavily invested in stock markets and heavily in debt and therefore had to sell of their properties to cover on their losses. But would the same situation arise now as I dont see a similar scenario like that in 1996 happening again.?
*
My personal view is that, this round will be different from any events occurred before. Even "if" prices do crash, it does not affect so widely as in 1996, as the degree of population involvement is not as great. The people participating in this properties boom since 2008 is not as many as in 1996, where we have foreign speculators in stock markets, properties speculators, stocks contra, 2nd board stocks, etc. But the mechanism of price movement will be the same. Other than people in property market and politicians, I have not heard anybody saying that Malaysia economy is very good since 2008!


gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 02:29 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 30 2013, 02:10 PM)
In actual fact, if the GDP in a country is growing, someone (bosses and those in senior management) is still making more money.  Just don't be a 9-5 worker stuck at the lower rungs of the corporate ladder.  If prices are raised, the extra money enters whose pockets?
*
I do believe that GDP is growing. However, GDP figures can be directed into certain direction. In Malaysia, I think, I am not economist, it is directed into infra. But, I wonder whether the money has triggered down or not.


gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 07:49 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(Martinis @ Dec 30 2013, 07:27 PM)
Yawn......Price drop already or not?
*
lol rclxms.gif

Will pm u when it does.
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 08:04 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Anybody read sinchew today ? Total households in malaysia it says is 6.9 mil. Existing house supplies is 4.67mil. Hmm, dun know whether they meant the supplies is available supplies or total supplies or total housings?
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 08:12 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 30 2013, 08:06 PM)
I m a repoman myself.. just seize one double storey in taman jinjang.. selling 660k.. originally bought 430k.. he cant stand anymore long... just waiting to get the best deal.. let him rot and finish him off.. 3 weeks from now will auction.. guys

more to come..
*
It is actually very difficult for him. If the going rate is 660k, he has to sell it for, let say, 560k. It is a loss of 100k for him and not gain of 130k. Majorities won't sell. Very interesting psycology.
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 08:36 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(fast_coder @ Dec 30 2013, 08:28 PM)
why wouldn;t he want to sell lower than market? and let the bank foreclose ?
tq
*
Money made, realised or unrealised, is considered owned. Taking an actual loss is psychologically painful. Unless one is professionally trained, normal people is just not built to cut loss. So, the poor guy is trapped until the last minutes, when our cruel repoman above is taking action on him.
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 08:41 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 30 2013, 08:30 PM)
2 millions household lived under the bridge or on top of trees ...lol

Many house not registered like in pendalaman East Malaysia, some kampung many house registered under 1 address.

Anyway how do they defined household ? eg if I am married my parents live with me & I have 3 kids living in same house considered 1 or 2 household ?

Or shall we build like Spain where numbers of house equal to 80% of population ...lol

Anyway read this

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...d-and-lived-in/
*
I hv no idea how they define household. But the author do say it is enuf for all household in malaysia.
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 08:47 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 30 2013, 08:41 PM)
This thread has element of sadism and vengence.
Appalling.
*
I do feel that is happening as well. Y were they made? It is like how hate-rich was created during china communism era, in another form. The word "flipper" is badly hated in this thread.
gspirit01
post Dec 30 2013, 09:19 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 30 2013, 08:55 PM)
Hmm I am educated one.. those instructions are all based on clients request strictly from the number of police all the way to demanding and etc.. u try default and  talk to to the colection debt bank officer..

they say they are like you.. flippers just merely doing business in legal way.. I there to collect the loans and money u have spend together with their projected profit.. intetest..

The better would be revolution.. you have shaped us tothis.. so flippers those low end and flippers wannabe.. me and my team are carrying work legally.. ok
*
Noted. Luckily I am not a flipper. sweat.gif
gspirit01
post Dec 31 2013, 11:32 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Dec 31 2013, 11:04 AM)
heard my friend said all his singaporean friends. love Klang valley property very much and keep sapu kl city property.
non of them like iskandar or johor property.
*
We discuss this previously. Foreigners' buying accounted 16% of kv prop buying last year.
gspirit01
post Dec 31 2013, 01:26 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 31 2013, 12:16 PM)
Whole of kv or just klcc area? Most foreigners units will be tenanted, will there be enough tenants to fulfill all flippers vacant units?
*

16% of all transactions. There are few news in sinchew business page 2 about recent star prop expo and iskandar. May worth reading.
gspirit01
post Jan 1 2014, 07:29 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Happy New Year to all of you!
gspirit01
post Jan 1 2014, 09:38 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
I think the two camps here won't be agreeing with the other party ever. In fact, alot of views here are from personal stands, as opinion is already formed by taking positions(buy or sell or hold). In fact, it is like blind men touching the elephant, all of them are partially right.

I think only some concrete numbers will tell the truths. Instead of argueing whether u r right or wrong, why dun you start with household incomes, house/condo supplies, etc, to see whether this prop market will be up or down. If u r blessed with first hand info with people around u, judge their abilities to further invest or start selling, then you get a clear pictures.

When the price curve is in the middle, no one can tell for sure it is going up or down. Only when the price is beyond the reach of most, it will stagnate and fall! Is this prop market beyond reach yet ? Let the number tell u.

12 Pages « < 3 4 5 6 7 > » Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0248sec    0.36    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 7th December 2025 - 04:20 PM