Like it or not, all of us here are a subset of the whole population. If you believe in statistics, our views here actually do reflect what is the major trend in the market. What I observed so far:
The usual optimistic investors here are not buying in the near future, and waiting for things to get clearer or dead chickens of at least 15 to 20% discount.
The pessimistic investors here are expecting prices to come down, or even a crash. So, they are not buying.
What I can conclude now is that prop prices now are stagnant, pending for next trend. As nobody is taking any action. In fact, future is being shaped now by future buyers and sellers. If people are not buying or supporting at this point, won't the collapse of overcommitted flippers trigger a reverse trend ? For my observation of trading, trading trends are like running train. When it goes up, nothing can stop it rises. Only when it runs out of momentum, it stops. When it comes down, it will run over anyone, anything in its way.
It is simpler to see this in stock market. Buyers and sellers set their prices. Only when one crosses over, deal is made. Flippers are like highly geared speculators. When they are forced sold, it wipes out all queued buys. In this case, queued buys (optimistic investors waiting for dead chicken) won't be there unless there is at least 15-20% discount. All human tries to protect their resources. When prices do reverse, the instinct is to wait for things to settle down, even now. Hence, I doubt that when dead chicken is shown, whether there is anyone picking it up.
Does anybody know that losing a lot of money is actually as painful as cutting yourself bleeding ?
http://www.webmd.com/balance/news/20070502...ally-be-painful