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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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Showtime747
post Jan 1 2014, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 1 2014, 03:08 PM)
Basically it is leverage, using a small knife to cut a tree trunk, can be very profitable in the bull market, likewise downfall is equally severe.
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Previous few years you just need RM8k-10k to buy a RM400k property. Upon VP, sell for RM600k. From RM10k cash you invest, you earn RM200k. COCR = 2000%. Better than drug dealer tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 1 2014, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 1 2014, 03:22 PM)
2.5 m new voters doesn't mean these r all new youngsters just that previously most youngsters don't bother to registered as voters they thought not point voting as no changes can ever be made, until 2008 they noticed the possibility is there,  therefore more go & registered, many of my friends & colleage in their 30's who had never voted only registered months before GE.
Using new young voters as guide to potential properties purchaser is totally misleading.
Ask yourselves do you have as much children's as your parents or grandparents ? most if not all of us have less, so whey got so many new young buyer's.
Percentage of Chinese in population also getting less & less, as I said so many Chinese school is in the verge of closing down due to low number of enrolment.
Our voter's very long life one many exceed 100 years old ..hehe I'll take with grain of salt if someone use voters as guide.
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Ok, let's see stats on Malaysia Demographics

http://www.indexmundi.com/malaysia/demographics_profile.html

0-14 years: 29.1% (male 4,433,911/female 4,186,635)
15-24 years: 17% (male 2,552,709/female 2,487,366)
25-54 years: 41.3% (male 6,195,754/female 6,027,160)
55-64 years: 7.4% (male 1,112,529/female 1,069,036)
65 years and over: 5.3% (male 739,696/female 823,596) (2013 est.)

Malaysia is still a relatively young country. Only 12.7% are over 55 years old. If you look at those 15-24 y/o there are about 5 million of them ! Too bad there is no breakdown for 25-33 (Gen Y)

Anyway, my point is that DIBS + Zero entry cost has played a big part in creating new demand, hence explaining why although income growth is stagnant, but demand for properties keep soaring up for the last few years
Showtime747
post Jan 1 2014, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 1 2014, 03:40 PM)
Opposition??? Maybe. But be end sure make rakyats look stoopid with Bangla.
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I am optimistic. We may be stupid, but not for long. Look at the demographics

15-24 years: 17% (male 2,552,709/female 2,487,366)

Lets say those currently 16-21 will be eligible for voting in GE14. There will be RM5m / 10 x 5 = RM2.5m new young voters in GE14. Young voters with internet are not as easily fooled as their grandparents. Assuming 75% of these young voters will not vote for bee end. The % of voters Bee End gets will reduce from 47% to 43%. While opposition % will increase from 51% to 55%

If GE14 is still not enough to change due to gerrymandering, then wait for GE15. Another 2.5 million new voters. Same assumption 75% goes to opposition. Bee End % will reduce to 40%. And opposition support will increase to 58%

Ah Jib Kor better do things right. If not in 10 years time (if not 5), right things will be done to him tongue.gif
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post Jan 1 2014, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 1 2014, 04:01 PM)
According to cencus done in 2010,  during 2001 those below 15 r  32.7% by 2010 is was 27.2% a reduction of 5.5% youngsters.


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Very close to my link. If you look at the latest link until July 2013, those below 15 is 29.1%
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post Jan 1 2014, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Elway @ Jan 1 2014, 04:08 PM)
this is based on the assumption that the youngsters you quoted will all vote for opposition.

You will be surprised at the number of university students who LOVE gomen... The internet helps to educate... and also to misinform.

Anyway, even with these young people entering the workforce, is there any guarantee that they will search for their own home instead of saving up and staying with their parents? Perhaps a more conservative estimate should be used in terms of calculating future demand, especially with the new LTV rules
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It is an interesting discussion, but politics belongs to RWI. I'm sorry for posting my above post here tongue.gif

As for property demand, I agree with you. Demand from this group of young people will be substantially reduced from now on. Back to the usual demand and supply without DIBS etc
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post Jan 2 2014, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Jan 2 2014, 10:20 PM)
If u talk about the majority, no. only a certain % can survive.

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Why do you say so ?
Showtime747
post Jan 2 2014, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Jan 2 2014, 10:56 PM)
i can be very sure that the majority has no quality, hence cant survive. if there is a slowdown, then those borderline case may not survive too
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You are saying that banks didn't follow BNM guideline to give out loans ?
Showtime747
post Jan 2 2014, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 2 2014, 10:33 PM)
People who think property in year 2014 is CCC may have mental "jammed". All building material cost increased, how property price can drop? However, I'm not deny there will have some adjustment in property price. But it still will return back to normal and even higher. By using KLSE share market as example, 20 years ago composite index 900++ points. 10 years  ago 1200++ points. And now 1800++ points. Year 2018 will reach 2000++ points.

Just my 2 cent

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KLSE at one point dropped to 200+ ? So property market also can fall to bottom right ?
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post Jan 2 2014, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Jan 2 2014, 11:10 PM)
im sorry. no

wut i mean is, the quality of the our workforce.
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I don't get you. If banks give out loan according to guideline, that means borrower has ability to service the installment. As long as they have jobs, their loan will be alright. Only if economy crash, then people will lose jobs. And eventually default on housing loan.

Are you saying those manage to get loan from bank are bad workers, and they will later be fired and lose jobs ?
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post Jan 5 2014, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 5 2014, 10:39 AM)
See, no one will ever admit theyre bull. But their arguments indicate they go in one direction.
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Very true tongue.gif
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post Jan 7 2014, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Jan 7 2014, 09:20 AM)
I don't know what garbage talk is that.

How can buying a prop be likened to chew pig bones (啃猪骨头) ?  whistling.gif
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Its a proverb man. Chew pig bones means a job nobody likes to do. He is saying buying expensive house is a suffering. But if he doesn't suffer now, his children will in the future

Although I don't agree with him. tongue.gif
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post Jan 10 2014, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 05:26 PM)

The new condo is in shah alam. Financially i am really good without any car or house loan before. zero monthly commitment
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That is the problem. You do not have any track records in CCRIS. If your salary is low, some banks don't even want to consider your case. No loan does not mean a good thing.

What is your net salary ? If it is botherline case, bank will definitely reduce their risk by reducing LTV
Showtime747
post Jan 10 2014, 06:22 PM

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Ya, 8k+ shouldn't be a problem to get 90%. Try foreign banks. They have better appetite

Unless you are saying 80% of gross price. Then yes, because starting 1/1/2014 bank can only offer loan based on net price. Good to hear banks follow strictly BNM ruling to reduce speculation. Only eligible people with at least 15% of purchase price can buy property. This should be the proper way in property investment. Previously fresh grads with 3-4k salary already able to buy property doh.gif
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post Jan 10 2014, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 10 2014, 05:54 PM)
I think in his case, it may not be that reason. If this happens to all banks, then it is something new. Otherwise, they will just tell u that u dun hv much credit history. And at least one of them will try to get the business.
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Ya, BNM still hasn't changed the ruling. 1st and 2nd residential prop still 90%. Most probably it is because of the 10% discount developer offering which is taken into consideration by the banks, so bank said it is 80% now
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post Jan 10 2014, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 10 2014, 06:43 PM)
I think this is probably the reason or his prop is valuated lower.  But i was wondering y all the bank officials told him that way.
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Other financial reasons I can think of is his RM8k salary include a large portion of commission which is not fixed. Other months his income could be RM4k only or even less. So the bank only consider his worst monthly salary when offering the loan. If this is still not the reason, then it must be non-financial reason. It could be his attitude is bad, talk impolitely and pissed off all the loan officers. Or his look is so bad that the bank officer refuse to offer a good deal tongue.gif just joking. Otherwise, the other reason will be he is just trolling here tongue.gif
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post Jan 11 2014, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 11 2014, 07:10 AM)
For project vp after April 2015, most if not all developers have already factored in gst. What price increase next year?
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Ah Jib only announced GST in Oct 2013. What he mean is new projects to be launched from now on will factor in the GST cost and hence increase in price. Because construction need at least 2-3 years to VP, so GST in Apr 2015 surely will affect projects launch now. However, whether the actual price will include the hidden GST cost depends on the market demand lah. If still hot, then sure price increase by 6%. If market bubble burst, then how to increase price ? Developer will either delay the launch, or absorb the extra cost tongue.gif
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post Jan 11 2014, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 11 2014, 10:54 AM)
Actually gst effect is kind of complicated. For construction materials, instead of 10% sales and services tax, developers will be paying 6% gst. However, as other consumables, eg petro, and labors, etc, still subject to new tax. Chances are there is net increase, but not to 6%.

For affordables or cheaper prop, since it is in high demand, seller will increase price. For high end, it will maintain or decrease as the demand is not there. E.g., 500k below and own stay should be ok. For investment and high end, similar can be said.
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Contractors are not paying SST now for construction material or labour cost. So the effect is the full 6%. For supply side, it is not complicated but a straight forward case. They are bound by the tax law to charge developer 6% and developer can't ask question. If you ask developer as a businessman, they will take the opportunity to increase more than 6% if the market allows me to.
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post Jan 11 2014, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 11 2014, 11:47 AM)
I think for labors, sst is not paid. But for materials, like steel bars, concrete, cements, I thought sst is paid on factory side ? But knowing contractors, their competition is very intense. Except for specialists, like pipejacking, etc, contractors r cutting margin for jobs.

But u r right, developers will increase price if they hv the options. That is y i said it can get complicated.  Only few new launches are profitable for investment after factoring all the new taxes. I think the best strategy is still wait and see.  If the sales and bookings is bad, how to increase price?
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SST has very specific and limited application. The principal of charging is "if it is not specified, it is not taxable". GST is the other way round "if it is not specified, it is taxable" tongue.gif Steel bars, concrete, cements are all basic building material. As far as I know, the only raw material that the manufacturers paid SST is plastics which is 10%. But plastics is only a negligible cost in their production chain. So, the effect of GST on construction industry has very wide implication. As you said, the margin of suppliers are already very thin. So if the suppliers don't pass on the GST cost to the developer, they cannot survive. So on the supply side, developers' cost will increase is without question

As to whether the developer's cost can be passed down to home buyers, it depends on the specific market. Heck, if the market is still hot, the increase will be more than 6% tongue.gif
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post Jan 12 2014, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 12 2014, 10:11 AM)
Why are you feeling so negative and bitter?  unsure.gif
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Because he everyday meet people with financial trouble. He foreclose houses. He bankrupt people. How not to be gloomy. He is the Dr Doom of LYN tongue.gif

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post Jan 12 2014, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 12 2014, 11:39 AM)
Haiy my friend.. take dat all aside.. ask yourself.. will u buy a studio in kl for 600k for stay or investment.. for landed.. are u going to buy 750k outskirt say kajang.. for stay.. thereafter see d market in general can absord or not..
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No I won't buy now. I will wait to see how is the situation first. 1. It could go down. 2. It could be stagnant. 3. It could continue to go up. Nothing is certain in this world. Just when you expect market will burst, it goes up instead. Or just as you expect the market to continue to go up, it goes down instead. Keep the possibility open. Don't take extreme view. Anything is possible in investment.

A lot of DDD camp here love to see the market collapse and flippers suffer. Also a lot of UUU camp and flippers here love to see DDD continue to miss the opportunity. But at the end of the day, no matter how hardworking you post in LYN, the market won't be affected simply because of what we post here. The market has its own life and won't be influenced by our comments

So chill bro. Take the middle road and go by the flow thumbup.gif

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