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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment
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gspirit01
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 Jan 8 2014, 10:25 PM
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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 8 2014, 06:55 PM) Yes, this is what I heard also. They even mention the second "increasing" wave this year. Meaning property price still not to the limit. Don't know what will happen after Q4? Unless there is a new policy change, the prices will be stagnant or decreasing. If you are interested, the napic Q3 report is out. For area like KL,prices is on the down trend even before 2014 Budget. Before Budget, Johor was very hot, selangor is on the up trend, and Penang is maintaining. Second "increasing" wave this year is definitely not accurate. All major developers revised down or maintain their sales target, except Mahsing. If you are a flipper, it is definitely a good time to do a personal financial stress test. Without the new policies in 2014 Budget, areas like Johor and selangor will be definitely overheated. There are really many speculators in the markets. This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 8 2014, 10:29 PM |
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gspirit01
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Jan 8 2014, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(liquidz @ Jan 8 2014, 10:43 PM) Just keep ur eyes on Iskandar. If there is bubble in Malaysia, Iskandar will be the first place to get hit. Anyhow, I don't think bubble will come but only minor price adjustment even in worst case. Actually by numbers, bubble is already here. Whether it burst or not, your guess is as good as mine. There are just too many conflicting factors. But you are right, Iskandar is more unhealthy than other places, as it depends very very heavily on Singaporeans, which is affected by the new rulings. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 9 2014, 06:19 AM
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QUOTE(brother love @ Jan 8 2014, 11:42 PM) Dont blindly believe wat u read, many posters actually from developer or wit vested interest in many poperty forums....dont even trust the local papers...speak to the person on the ground tat r involved in the industry...many expensive newly completed projects difficult to sell...Nadayu at Kajang....Valencia....Msuites by Mah Sing, some bought Rm620k bout 3 yrars ago, now selling Rm680-700k..if u factored in the 30% RPGT, it doesnt look like easy money anymore, taking so much risk buying overpriced poperty just to end up making maybe Rm40-50k after minus everything Yeah, so many are stucked with higher priced prop now. As for your above case, the saler made in gross profit, but he lost money in net. 50k is not enuf to cover all expenses for 3 yrs. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 9 2014, 08:00 AM
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TS, a developer used your theory in another way. Sry, it is mandarin. http://www.nanyang.com/node/590257?tid=691根据一项统计显示，大马的房价，世界排名第99位，但租金却是第9位。 有关统计显示，我国每年投资租金回报率介于5%至6%、土地年收益约4%至6%，普遍高于贷款利率，两者相加，投资回酬达9%至12%，足以以房养贷。 尽管大马的房价自2009年3月全球金融危机在亚洲告终以来，普通上涨40%，然而根据世界银行和联合国人居中心，针对大马每户居民的平均房价与年收入比做出的“房价收入比”显示，马来西亚是4，还是处于合理健康的房价水平。 房价收入比指的是平均房价和平均年收入的对比。以此指标计算，大马是本区域其中最低的，甚至比国民人均所得远较大马低很多的曼谷，马尼拉、雅加达还低。 联合国人居中心过去针对数十个经济发展不同的主要城市研究得出，合理房价的房价收入比应该是介于3至6之间；世行专家则认为4至6之间；也即是说，国际上公认、居民可以承受的住房价格，也即是房价的合理价格水平，应该是相当于3至6年的平均收入。 因此，按此标准，当房价收入比超过5的时候，这个城市的房屋购买力极低；若超过6的话，则被国际公认为属于房地产泡沫区。 |
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gspirit01
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Jan 9 2014, 06:43 PM
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Anybody listened to bfm's interview with imoney person in charge this morning ? It is on renting vs. purchase properties. Very very insightful!
Those who want to invest property should not miss this one.
This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 9 2014, 06:44 PM
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gspirit01
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Jan 9 2014, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(cody99 @ Jan 9 2014, 01:01 PM) On other point of view.... just look at MYR currency power and gold price. This will give a hint of inflation rate. The best way go against inflation is investment. And property investment is getting very very popular... Thus, it pull a pool investor interest. On the other hand, if it is oversupply; it will give negative impact to the economic. How I wish that it is this simple! Here are some of the factors affecting the housing price: 1. Credit availabilities 2. Interest rate 3. Inflation 4. Market sentiments 5. Rental yields 6. Average household incomes 7. Supply and demands 8. Gomen policies 9. Hot money . . . |
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 08:05 AM
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I was talking to someone in the front line. The market is really actually slowing down. It is very different from last year.
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(cody99 @ Jan 10 2014, 08:50 AM) I agree with BTimes. If you look at MYR currency trend to rest of the world... It is saying Central Bank generating money faster then ever. On the other hand; Developer is another type of business try to maximized thier investment like what all business does. Back to the topic: it boilds down to supply and demand Too many for house owner. Too few for investors. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 10 2014, 05:42 PM) That is the problem. You do not have any track records in CCRIS. If your salary is low, some banks don't even want to consider your case. No loan does not mean a good thing. What is your net salary ? If it is botherline case, bank will definitely reduce their risk by reducing LTV I think in his case, it may not be that reason. If this happens to all banks, then it is something new. Otherwise, they will just tell u that u dun hv much credit history. And at least one of them will try to get the business. QUOTE I am first time buyer. Been to those 3 banks to apply loan (local bank). Then the loan officer said 90% financing is no more, now maximum is 80% even for first house. I was like shocking and asking since when. Then they said starting this year. This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 10 2014, 05:55 PM |
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 05:54 PM) U r entitled for more than 500k loan for 30yrs, unless your age is too old. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 06:03 PM) I am only 26 la anney.. Where got old.. Beats me. Can't think of any other reason! |
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 10 2014, 06:30 PM) Ya, BNM still hasn't changed the ruling. 1st and 2nd residential prop still 90%. Most probably it is because of the 10% discount developer offering which is taken into consideration by the banks, so bank said it is 80% now I think this is probably the reason or his prop is valuated lower. But i was wondering y all the bank officials told him that way. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 10 2014, 07:05 PM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 10 2014, 06:56 PM) Other financial reasons I can think of is his RM8k salary include a large portion of commission which is not fixed. Other months his income could be RM4k only or even less. So the bank only consider his worst monthly salary when offering the loan. If this is still not the reason, then it must be non-financial reason. It could be his attitude is bad, talk impolitely and pissed off all the loan officers. Or his look is so bad that the bank officer refuse to offer a good deal  just joking. Otherwise, the other reason will be he is just trolling here Non fixed income was another one that i thought as well. How I wish I got 8k+ when I was 26. Here is the podcast of the interview that I listened to while I was driving yesterday. Superb information! http://www.bfm.my/ringgit-sense-property-b...ent-140109.htmlI like the part when the interviewee commented that, other than sentimental reason, there isn't much reason to buy prop when it is so expensive. Enjoy! |
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 10:54 AM
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Actually gst effect is kind of complicated. For construction materials, instead of 10% sales and services tax, developers will be paying 6% gst. However, as other consumables, eg petro, and labors, etc, still subject to new tax. Chances are there is net increase, but not to 6%.
For affordables or cheaper prop, since it is in high demand, seller will increase price. For high end, it will maintain or decrease as the demand is not there. E.g., 500k below and own stay should be ok. For investment and high end, similar can be said.
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 11:47 AM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 11 2014, 11:11 AM) Contractors are not paying SST now for construction material or labour cost. So the effect is the full 6%. For supply side, it is not complicated but a straight forward case. They are bound by the tax law to charge developer 6% and developer can't ask question. If you ask developer as a businessman, they will take the opportunity to increase more than 6% if the market allows me to. I think for labors, sst is not paid. But for materials, like steel bars, concrete, cements, I thought sst is paid on factory side ? But knowing contractors, their competition is very intense. Except for specialists, like pipejacking, etc, contractors r cutting margin for jobs. But u r right, developers will increase price if they hv the options. That is y i said it can get complicated. Only few new launches are profitable for investment after factoring all the new taxes. I think the best strategy is still wait and see. If the sales and bookings is bad, how to increase price? This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 11 2014, 11:49 AM |
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 11 2014, 12:31 PM) SST has very specific and limited application. The principal of charging is "if it is not specified, it is not taxable". GST is the other way round "if it is not specified, it is taxable" Steel bars, concrete, cements are all basic building material. As far as I know, the only raw material that the manufacturers paid SST is plastics which is 10%. But plastics is only a negligible cost in their production chain. So, the effect of GST on construction industry has very wide implication. As you said, the margin of suppliers are already very thin. So if the suppliers don't pass on the GST cost to the developer, they cannot survive. So on the supply side, developers' cost will increase is without question As to whether the developer's cost can be passed down to home buyers, it depends on the specific market. Heck, if the market is still hot, the increase will be more than 6% I think the gomen is trying to hit down the prop price, at the expense of flippers and developers. If gst is used as a reason to increase the prop price beyong existing level, the gomen will come out with something new again. They try to implement gst in 2015 and not immediately, probably wants to see the impact as well. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 04:57 PM
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QUOTE(JustcallmeLarry @ Jan 11 2014, 04:17 PM) Nope i am asking will these crazy prices drop this year??? I don't know about Penang. However, high end properties in KL and selangor are dead since last year. Whether it will drop or not "this year", maybe flipping a coin will be just as accurate. Nobody knows for sure, including so called "experts", what the market will be in the near future. Majorities of the investors are taking a look and see strategy. What I knew from people around me is that, if they are not financially strong, holding several properties on hand now making them "shaking legs"! |
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 05:13 PM
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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Jan 11 2014, 05:08 PM) High end means around how much$? To some ppl rm1m = high end oso...  If "experts" all so 'chun' hor, all turn "li ka shing" oledi....  Those more than 700K subsales are extremely slow in KL and selangor. Some bungalow and semi D more than 1.5 mils are not moving at all. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(JustcallmeLarry @ Jan 11 2014, 05:49 PM) So if it's ur money will your buy property in Penang this year or wait? I dun know Penang Property well enough to comment this. But if it is in KL and selangor, I will wait, as the price is stagnant now. |
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gspirit01
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Jan 11 2014, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Jan 11 2014, 05:56 PM) R u property agent?  I am tracking prices to buy. Not an agent. Trying to upgrade my house due to wife's demand. I like stock market investment better. Other than the past few years, I never feel that residential prop investment is a good investment. Of course, commercial is another story. |
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