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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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gspirit01
post Jan 5 2014, 10:36 PM

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If anyone is interested in housing bubble in the US, maybe you should read this book on property chapter. http://www.cite.com.my/product_info.php?products_id=245748


gspirit01
post Jan 5 2014, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 5 2014, 10:55 PM)
Guys check out bandar mahkota cheras section 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and 8.. many movements there 4 auction double storey old one 20 x 65 at 350k.. subsale 420 k to 480 k all negotiable..hmmm sg long as well
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Thanks ! That area started softening since last year.
gspirit01
post Jan 5 2014, 11:57 PM

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Just to share with you what I read in the book that I glanced thru today. The property bubble, if any, depend on three things. 1. Availabilities of easy credits, 2. Interest rate, 3. Inflations.

So, the first one is controlled, the second one is being raised soon, and the third one will be tough to contain. But anyway, except the third factor, looking at the above, bubble will be contained, if any. This means that property price will be stagnant/slow/decrease.
gspirit01
post Jan 6 2014, 06:42 AM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 6 2014, 01:17 AM)
expecting 10mil population by 2020 from current 7.2mil.. sui boh?

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2013...world-business/
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It depends on who do the projection. Frankly speaking, I know people who actually nid to do this sort of projection in their job. Sometimes, they can be over optmistic.
gspirit01
post Jan 6 2014, 08:06 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jan 6 2014, 06:55 AM)
Quite easy when u noticed that they add sepang and now seremban into kv.

later they add melaka or ipoh as kv or worst bring in 3 mil poor bangla n ask 200k rich hinis balik tong san

Now u see? We got 20mil population.
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I didn't notice that one. I tho they will fill up all empty space with high plot ratio.
gspirit01
post Jan 6 2014, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 6 2014, 11:10 AM)
Our KLCC is actually a very shitty area. What is so advantageous about living in KLCC, that can attract the rich expats, really?

Luxury development?
Other areas also have luxury developments - Bangsar, MK, PJ

Easy access to amneties?
Nope! Imagine if you live behind KLCC, there aren't any good grocery supermarkets nearby even. No post office (to pay bills). No parks for sports (KLCC park sucks). There is a gym, and LRT, which you can find everywhere else.

Lots of nightlife?
NOPE! KLCC area nightlife SUCKS! Nearest with good nightlife (barely acceptable) is Pavillion, and you can't walk, need to drive. Beach Club closed down and the P Ramlee area is on a decline now. Good food? Nope not really. No happening clubs in KLCC aside from Zouk which is still not really walking distance (and apparently relocating soon).

Other areas have more nightlife. MK has lots of pubs, Bangsar too. 1st Avenue in PJ is now happening.

So really, what is so good about KLCC??

Nothing, really if you properly do your research.

The only advantage is its near to KLCC work and offices. But so what, does everyone work in KLCC? Most big companies already moved out. Remaining large employers that hire a lot of expats maybe Petronas or Citibank but even then those are on downtrend. And who wants to live next door to office? So your boss can ask you to come back to the office on Saturdays or stay late at night cos convenient for you? LOL!
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rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

I agreed with u!
gspirit01
post Jan 6 2014, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 6 2014, 12:09 PM)
Sharing a very useful site for those who like numbers and charts, covering every aspect of Malaysian economy.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/indicators
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Thanks for sharing. Infact, i was on this site last night calculating whether there is a bubble or not. EPU website has alot of info as well.
gspirit01
post Jan 6 2014, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 6 2014, 02:17 PM)
I would say there's always a bubble somewhere in the world.

As to whether the bubble is close to popping/bursting or not, is anyone's best guess.  brows.gif
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thumbup.gif rclxms.gif
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 07:05 AM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 6 2014, 11:18 PM)
Nice one, if u know how to read mandarin. http://cforum.cari.com.my/portal.php?mod=view&aid=44509
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Thanks for sharing. A post before the above is also very interesting.

http://cforum.cari.com.my/portal.php?mod=view&aid=44406
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Jan 7 2014, 01:47 PM)
property bubble makes people think they are "rich" therefore they spend on luxury items ... Logical?
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It is not logical, it is a fact proven by psychologists. Forgot where I saw the source previously. Try google.
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 06:06 PM

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Looking at all those threads and replies, i realised that i previously way undersestimated the "demands" for prop investment. I was right, with many people here, that the price spikes were due to investment speculation. However, I never realised until recently that how ignorant these so called investors are on the prop investment knowledge. Everywhere I see,

"Wah, invest prop make so much lah!"
"This one can invest or not ?"
"Prop price can go up only nia"
"This one sure go up"

Come on lah, at least learn how to evaluate lah. If can't calculate loan interest, principal remains, rental yield, how can one evaluate ? Many masters already stopped buying or buy only when there is a good deal. All those half cooked can't wait to jump in. sweat.gif
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 7 2014, 05:43 PM)
There is a shortage - of affordable housing. There is an oversupply of high-priced condos. Building more high end condos will not solve the shortage.
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U are right. Even developers think this way now.
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 7 2014, 05:43 PM)
There is a shortage - of affordable housing. There is an oversupply of high-priced condos. Building more high end condos will not solve the shortage.
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Not only that, we hv too many "investors" in the market. All these high ends were affordable just 3 or 4 yrs back.
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 07:21 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 7 2014, 06:29 PM)
When i read people is trying to refinance their newly bought house to cash in to flip another house, i know Bubble burst shouldn't be too long.  whistling.gif
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I read this as well. Some of them bought their house less than 5 yrs. This will mean they will be paying two "new" house, instead of one new, one old. rclxub.gif
gspirit01
post Jan 7 2014, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 7 2014, 09:51 PM)
Guys.. anyone bavk from work KL ah.. today mini land slide at mahemeru.. must be a pain right.. from pwtv toviva mall requires 1 hour 30 minutes...
Today I bet sure many cursing like hell.. either heading to rawang direction or even to the south setemban link..

Thanks to our friendly developers.. now everyone can flip.. (formerly thanks to Tony Fernandrz.. now everyone can fly) those staying semenyih will need at least 3 hours to reach from Klcc.. look at this the dev and flippers told you how near semenyih.. seri pajam and echo hill( which highly will be echoing among thrmsrlves once completed).. only 45 minutes away.. come on.. u flippers try it..

also dont forget our friendly neighbourhood.. ya KL SOUTH which is equally far.. prudent house owners.. open eyes big big.. flippers dun just simply buyy.. drstroying market when you guys flip..

the rise in construction matetisls were perpetrated by you all.. the contractors after seeing you bagging 350 k.. of course they will share some.. in actual fact even cinstruction price up.. it still does not justified the flip ftom 440k to 780k when the units you F lippers bought is already COMPLETED...

however.. affordable housing is what we needd
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Someone has the photo for the slide!

https://forum.lowyat.net/uploads/attach-53/...-1389103942.jpg
gspirit01
post Jan 8 2014, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jan 8 2014, 09:20 AM)
From what I read, office RE market is now on a downward trend with demand < supply.

Like to know whether some one in this forum has some data on the relationship among office, industrial and residential RE markets. Do they all go in the same direction (not all at the same time)? Which is the leading one among the 3?

Thanks.
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U may try to do the study using the napic report. Should be tough to tell.

QUOTE
Fundemental in RE. Condo has high rental, low appreciation.  Landed has low rental, high appreciation.  But this is just general. Just dont compare condo in Maluri or Cheras with landed in Batang Kali. Make a fair comparison.  My father house in Batang Kali is a 2 storey, the house in Shamelin is 3 bedroom flat. The flat has higher rental and higher price than the 2 storey house.  But 2 storey house in Keramat is easily 0.5 Million 


I hv been wondering about this for a long time as well.

Side topic, sinchew has a front page in business section on prop today. The house index has come down 5% in 3rd quarter 2013.
gspirit01
post Jan 8 2014, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 8 2014, 10:59 AM)
Nooo.... there are some people who still believe that there is "shortage" in the property market that will continue to drive up demand and prices. Good luck to them.  rclxms.gif
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They are not different from the trend followers in the stock markets. Really good luck to them!
gspirit01
post Jan 8 2014, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 8 2014, 11:15 AM)
Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered.

wink.gif
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If it is really like stock market, the chances of speculate and win might be slim.
gspirit01
post Jan 8 2014, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 8 2014, 12:10 PM)
But speculators and buyers need to have a lot of cash in hand for this to happen. But the problem is, its seems like the other way round. shakehead.gif
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Not really. They can use leverage.
gspirit01
post Jan 8 2014, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Jan 8 2014, 01:08 PM)
i read online news,

in Q2 2013, transaction down but value maintain (meaning price still UUU) ... can shed some lights on it?
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It means the transacted values is higher, although fewer people are buying. This may mean that the new properties are priced higher or there is an increase in properties price. But at average 269K per transaction in Q3, the transaction is probably done outside the prime areas, like KL, selangor, penang, johor.

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