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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 11:26 PM)
Thanks!  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif

I hope the drop in transaction is not because of the buyer has difficulty in getting loan.  unsure.gif
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U r right. Buyers can't get loans. But many of these buyers are so called "investors"
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 11:29 PM

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Deleted...

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 3 2014, 11:30 PM
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 3 2014, 11:37 PM)
Boss depend la. If bank b nice and hav sui sui gem, y not??? brows.gif

Gd to c some slowing down. Next round go Dev can take time 6c6c not tiab kopi. Slow slow nego price with Dev for unsold units. Gd le like tat. Dun like balloting or sold out in a day kinda projects. Sure got many flippers.

U le boss. Big plan or small plan for 2014???
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rclxms.gif thumbup.gif
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(goldchris @ Jan 4 2014, 07:40 AM)
Lolx bunch of youngster today just waitting for luxury condo apartment price come down only, and dreaming for investor to financial crush, ei come on outside still have lot of affordable house la, i curently rent out one of my apartment at flora damansara, and the purchase price range of that house only from 150k-200k plus with 3 bedroom, kepong sentral also  affordable, there are still more affordable house. U want high end and low price mana ada? may be you will said in term of security it going to very bad, but ei brother I tell you people who live in Jalan perkasa Big Bungalow also kena rob almost every two month la. this is not an excuse la, just you yourself being picky only ma, same as if you no money dont get a girl freind la, why you want drag someone suffer with you.

Beside a lot youngster today will complain ei the house below 300k is haunted house? semua you cakap la, cakap pandai go earn money la, later you really will kena haunted

DONT WATCH TOO MUCH KOREAN DRAMA, TAT MAKE YOU BRAIN FREEZE AND FOREVER DREAMER
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Haha. I am a weirdo here. I dun watch tv.

Mind sharing with me your strategies at this time ? I agree with u that there are still plenty of "investors" out there. But they are not helping in term of price.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 4 2014, 09:33 AM)
Reference to research as below:
http://www.oricpub.com/HSSR-1-2-17%2B.pdf

GNI has increase 49% since 2009-2012. Trend predicted in the research can be a good reference, depending on one view. Sufficient reference and analysis is quoted to make it a viewable paper.

Thanks
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Thanks for sharing. It is for usual reading only. That reminds me if u look in the wrong place,u will try to explain complex situation with simplstic answer.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(goldchris @ Jan 4 2014, 09:52 AM)
LOLX ''OTAKU'' ke haha, hmm wat strategy u want?lolx. if ur are DDD but BBB then wait price drop lo lolx, if only DDD wo,  then believe the student research post above la lolx, the research seem like predict 1.2mil property will drop to 900k according to the graph good good. If u just want house plenty of choice still out there la lolx, i list above alr wat drool.gif

wah i just saw 120k also got no house meh?
http://www.propwall.my/damansara_perdana/f...ara/classifieds
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Strategy will mean whether u buy or sold recently. R u holding or going to sell ? Buying mid or high range, and thought ?
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(goldchris @ Jan 4 2014, 10:09 AM)
Lol y i need to sell? bukan investor also lolx? wat are u talking about? wat strategy u want war ke?LOL la u, u truly weirdo as u said ur self, nah bukan saya cakap punya, buy bubble stay la live in bubble, 100% high end with transparent glass somemore fom top to bottom, high class dao
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If u r for your own stay, there is no issue for u. Looking at the propwall ads that u show, 200k apt will not be hit badly even if there is any crash. For 200 k, the monthly instalment is abt 1000. U will pay roughly abt the same rent as well. When I mention price coming down, I dun mean all ranges. U probably bought recently. Dun worry, not all will be affected equally.


gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 3 2014, 10:35 PM)
After reading all the discussions and articles and news with open heart. It suddenly dawn on me that the truth is already there. Here is my view:

For flippers: good luck to u. Your life ahead will be tough
For investor: prepare for -ve COCR in the next few years if u bought last yr
For house seeker: sorry, price will come down slowly. The wait will test your patience
For renter: you will hv more choices and lower rent as time goes.
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The above is my stand.

I m not a bubble burst person.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 11:41 AM

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I think this forum is a good portal for every one to engage in getting good info. The info may make u make intelligent decision. Everyone has their stands, of course. The most important thing is not to let your stand cloud your minds. Talk with evidence and observation, and not your emotion. In that way, we are will benefit.
Prop market is cyclical. An intelligent decision made previously may turn out to be foolish if dun change.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 4 2014, 11:32 AM)
50 percent of the flippers at least are early 30 to 40 of which are with low holding power.. I tink not more than 5 months holding already gone.. 50 percent exit will be good... in fact very loww and often joinly purchase with family and mostly GF .. both of which no cash reserve to hold for years to come.. of course.. their selling price would not go down..  the crash I suspect will be perpetrated by these low end flippers.. when they start selling lower than market rate..

please for those capable exclude your self automatically.. majority flippers does not have these holding power especially gen y and x.. however there are owayls exception O &G .. lecturers with PHD and etc..
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Evidence shows that they are still very active in the market. Look at the loan application.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 4 2014, 12:08 PM)
For flippers: no different from gambling in the current market. Holding power is the key to survive in this adverse condition.
For investor: prepare your cash to reenter market in the more attractive prices.
For house seeker: sorry, price is very unlikely to come down as long as the second group exist unless the incident in 1997 is repeated again.

For renter: you will hv more choices and lower rent as time goes. Are you sure? More and more people are immigrating to city nowadays.
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Flipper: for existing flipper, it is not too bad as they still enjoy dibs. It is when it is vp, then selling out might not find taker. That is y I said future will be tough for them. For new flipper, if they dun evaluate well the effect of new rules. They will be in bad shape as well.

Investor: most hv stopped buying and waiting to pick up dead chicken

House seeker: we r more like singapore and hk. It is stagnant now or slowly coming down. Of course, it is not all segments and price ranges. For high end, u can nego to get disc even now. For super high end, the developer will sell to u at disc and no downpayment. E.g. Try mahshing cheras lagenda and shah alam semi dees, and many others. But not even for own stay as it is small ghost village, dun mention about investment.

Renter: when vps are issued for the projects starting 2011, u will see. In fact, for high end condo in mk, or damansara, those gui lo renters are in upper hands, ask this and that. Furthermore, rental came under pressure is not from me. Check citi bank prop report for q3 2013.

As in some taiko above said, every segments are different. If u go thru from scratch and do some calculations on instalments, interest, rental, returns, u will come out with some realistic conclusions. In fact, I encourage u to do that to dispute my views. I m very very open as I wish to learn. For me, being wrong and lose face means nothing to me.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(goldchris @ Jan 4 2014, 03:08 PM)
doh.gif i bought long alr bro, 8 year since I bought my first of course having a better one now, the fact is i dont see you realise reality is reality, some taiko tell some pretty true story gen Y pandai complain barang naik, compalin house expensive yet like my junior colleague capable to makan Old town, Bee, Makoko(forget wat name liao japanese restaurent lol), chili rush, nando for everyday lunch, until end of the month no saving hopeless genY and go back home stick with running man hehe haha end up sleep coffin lo
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Agreed with your observations on many Gen Y. They feel alot more financially secure than gen x. For gen X, they rarely get financial securities from parents, as many parents pun takda. So many gen x ended up saving more and investing more. There is no right and wrong. Many gen Y got parents who hv houses waiting for them.

U will be surprised many so called investors are gen x. I am a number and evidence person. All my views are from certain numbers, calculations, and published evidence.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 4 2014, 03:29 PM
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(1282009 @ Jan 4 2014, 03:18 PM)
I'm categorised as your 2nd+4th category. What's COCR? For me, I never expect profit from rental but if the rental can cover 70-80% of my installation, I will consider it as a bonus. Like some always say, it's not when you buy but when you sell that matters the most.
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Cocr = cash on cash return. Showtime has very good explanation on this previously. Learn this, u will understand how flippers make more money than drug dealers during good time.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 4 2014, 03:25 PM)
Think again...which is more preferable  if both ready to move in unit (subsale) and under construction project offered at the same prices? Let's assume u do not own any unit now and are paying rental every month, can u afford to pay for the monthly bank interest also if u go for the new project that come without DIBS?

I would rather to go for a subsale unit where I just need to pay monthly instalment and no need to help other to pay for their installment. So why should the existing flippers worry if they are financially strong?
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If one is financially strong, they will buy their own. In that case, subsales or new doesn't make any difference. It is only personal preference.

If u understand how flippers make big money, u will understand they leverage high.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 4 2014, 03:33 PM)
Moreover, I doubt that there will be new flippers coming in after government interventions and stricter mortgage requirements...the new comer shud be called "investors" instead of "flippers"

Just my 2 cents...
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Now, u have come to your senses. U r right, flippers are being restricted now. So, when new flippers vanishing, what happen to the old flipper's high ends ?

And as for investors, there are plenty here. They r waiting to pick up dead chicken.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 4 2014, 08:12 PM)
Just back from a residential and a commercial property launch.  Buying interest are still quite healthy at both launches.  Many people are just holding back due to Budget 2014.  I dun think they are flippers because DIBS is gone and RPGT has been increased.
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Care to share how u perceived the healthy interest ?
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 4 2014, 09:55 PM)
Based on number of agents/visitors and sales chart in the showroom, keeping in mind the selling points and launch period.

Those with poor sales can be easily identified e.g. almost empty carpark, few sales agents with almost no visitors, poor sales performance even after months of launch etc.
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thumbup.gif

Commercial launch aside, how do u feel about the mix of prospects for residential? Investors/own stay 50/50 ? Looking at the loan application figures, I suspect that there are quite a lot of investors in the market.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 4 2014, 10:32 PM)
For JB, residential now probably left mostly long term investors (>5 years) and those buying for own stay.  Flippers are mostly out, which is good news.

Not too clear about KL, but I guess high end condos not could be oversupplied and could have price correction, if Singapore can serve as a reference after the cooling measures were implemented there.
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I hv the same view about kl high end condo and landed. For semid and bungalow, i dun see even investors.
gspirit01
post Jan 4 2014, 11:18 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 4 2014, 11:15 PM)
Most of the time there is onli 1 direction after a long consolidation.
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Boss, reading your post at night can not sleep lah. Nid to think. tongue.gif
gspirit01
post Jan 5 2014, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 5 2014, 06:39 PM)
below is latest "market" situation - from developers' perspective mostly.

u decide what they are really saying.

well, wat wud they say if it's actually hothothot bbbb like some are still saying?
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Thanks for sharing.

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