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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 2 2014, 11:02 PM)
KL average household size is about 3.72 (2010), which I extrapolate to about 3.5 in 2014 based on the decreasing trend over 30 years.  Re-calculating using the article's data, KL needs about 800k houses cumulatively from current period to 2020 (6 years), so it needs a supply of 133k new houses per year.  The article quotes 100k supply per year.  Taking away some exaggerations, the demand and supply in terms of units approximately balance now.  The issue is affordability.  So demand for low to mid end housing should be healthy but high end ones are likely to suffer from oversupply, as what we have been seeing in recent years.
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It is kv, not kl. Kl has 1 over millions only. Kv has much bigger area.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(lilzany @ Jan 3 2014, 12:12 AM)
i think there are still some property millionaires that do post here.

personally i don't prefer flip. many here do though. sure you can flip 30 properties and win but if from 31-36 is u have a complete loss than it is game over for you.

in the stock market nobody wins forever, so is properties.

i have been in this forum a while and people still sell despite sharp capital gain hoping to hunt the next property with a sharp capital gain. why don't just keep it for rent?
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Our previous calcs show that to flip, the breakeven rise in price is more than 10% after 1 yr with new rules. So, the flip game is really over.

gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 09:42 AM

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It is actually very difficult to guess the no of houses required. For now, it just mean that 28 mil people made up of 6.93 mil households that live in 4.5mil houses. So, there are more than 1 household in 1 house. Maybe 2 brothers with families live in a big house, or people with families staying with parents.

The actual house needed will be how many of these household move out and move where. Some will go to big cities, like kv. But then, they might stay together, etc. or they might migrate, or stay back in kampoung, etc. how to estimate ? Even town planners are estimating.

Average 2.5 person per house is just bull. It means that majorities are not married or many people own more than 1 house.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Jan 3 2014, 09:44 AM
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(Jaxisme @ Jan 3 2014, 10:28 AM)
Another thing to remember is when ppl mention KL composite (or any stock market index) is X% in 97 and up 200% in 2013 etc.

Unlike property, the make up of the stock index changes over time - as in the shares included in the calculation changes over time.  The companies whose share price fallen really badly means their market cap reduces to a point where they are no longer included in the index calculation.

Eventho on paper it sounds good that shares index has increased by XX% over this period, it isn't always the case - esp if you picked a loser.
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+1

You know it as well!

rclxms.gif

gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 10:17 AM)
He can say everyting under the sun.. or till the moon come down.. in actual fact.. many properties are sold and still vacant..  those numbet will never be able to absord the properties AFFORTIBILITY is the ISSUE MY FRIEND... so long we argue di.. still wany BBB .. why even waste time here when the market is so good... all those unrebutted arguements

still posting unconstructive arguements.. come on..
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For many people here, affordability is not an issue. It is just not worth to jump in at this point.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 10:36 AM)
Mr Bear, if someone cant afford to own a house doesn't mean others cant afford as well...a young couple in KV with average total income of 6-7k can easily afford to buy a 500k condo in many areas of KV or Selangor.
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7k --> take home 6k

Car loan -- > .5k
450K loan -- > 2.25k

Left 3 k for everything. Tough life! If with kids, hardly enuf.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(Baohulu55 @ Jan 3 2014, 11:14 AM)
Always have economist mentioned bubble market
But until now , nothing happen but the price is going up day by day
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When BBW get bz, it is burst. Now, it is just stagnant.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 01:49 PM

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I don't know how people get their info on BBB mode. From what I see so far, people are mostly WWW(wait wait wait) mode. Of course you have some speculators who are not careful in analyzing current situation.

Old way:
1. go for prop with DIBS
2. put in low dp
3. complete and sell.
4. big profit.

this has gone on for sometimes. I think many speculators are not financial savvy enough to evaluate the effects of new rules.

But more experienced investors, most are wait and see now.

Will there be a crash ? Who knows ? But there are more pressure on the sell side rather than buy side.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 02:34 PM

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For those who are in BBB mode. Please share your view here. State:

What you buy:
Price range:
Purpose of buying:
Expected Profit:

I sincerely want to learn from you.

For me, I won't buy for now.
Reason: I don't know whether market will crash or not. But I know prices are stagnant and plenty of subsales. Rental will be pressured. Also, mostly are too expensive to make anymore profit.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Jaxisme @ Jan 3 2014, 02:36 PM)
Yes I kinda agree, if the market turns or bnm new guidelines are enforced, it will make banks offload npl- which means call in their loans by forcing the buyers to sell.  yes this will happen here and there but not in big numbers.  Overall I don't think it will cause a price collapse or crash.  it will cause price to stagnate or down 2 / 3% - hardly noticeable, and taking into acc inflation (3%?), so in real terms probably down 5%.  so that's a likely scenario.

What I meant in my previous post, was IF ppl are hoping for price cash in the order of 20 - 30%, the banks will have to force sell these units in big numbers ie en masse.  And you know one banks does it - others will follow as no one wants to be the last person to get out of a burning house. I don't think the bank will do this and the govt will do what they can to stop this.

Anyone has any statistic of the level of npl in Msia banks?  or statistic on mortgage arrears (no of months in late payments) ...  this will give a better guide.  If we can see the number late repayments increasing rapidly then it may worrying - especially in the current low interest rate environment which will not last forever.
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I think these numbers are confidential. Actually, maybe you can gauge by family debts over income, or some other indicators to shed some lights on this.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 03:29 PM

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zzzz Whenever I see a UUU or BBB person, I ask him what he had bought recently and reason. I get no reply.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 3 2014, 05:54 PM)
This is good for the property market as it ensures only buyers with good financial background are allowed to loan for property purchase.
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Thanks for sharing!

I summarized below:

Analyst: price down
Developer: price moderately up or maintain, transaction increase
Media: don't know
Bank: prudent lending, affordability is an issues.

Stands:
Analyst: more impartial
Developer: extremely partial
Media: take and publish
Bank: impartial and by law.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Jan 3 2014, 10:15 PM)
In Namibia, Home Buyers Are Entering Bidding Wars for Scarce Housing.
Africa's Namibia is now ranked fourth globally in terms of housing-price increases

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000...234591680049328
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Interesting! Thanks for sharing. It is a real shortage, caused by infra insufficiency, and market boom for financial and mining. Also read that there are speculation on the affordable houses. But the high ends are dropping in price.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:35 PM

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After reading all the discussions and articles and news with open heart. It suddenly dawn on me that the truth is already there. Here is my view:

For flippers: good luck to u. Your life ahead will be tough
For investor: prepare for -ve COCR in the next few years
For house seeker: sorry, price will come down slowly. The wait will test your patience
For renter: you will hv more choices and lower rent as time goes.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 10:41 PM)
Dear Mr Bear, i would like to apologize for my rude behavior. oops.gif Trust me, there are plenty of sub sale units in the Kepong/ Jalan Ipoh/ Puchong/ Cheras with price below 250k.  It is very unlikely to get a new landed unit below 400k in KV nowadays.
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New units below 400k will be available in plenty numbers in the next few years. They are smaller.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 10:46 PM)
Townhouse u mean? Is townhouse considered as a landed property?
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Condo. It is the next trend.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 10:51 PM)
I m not choosy..200k yes I know bout it if it is old.. anyway.. I need to fast in this topic.. guys look after bt times for shall you... he is highly speculative.. will corrupt youngster for sure..
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Stock market style of crash won't be here any time soon. As much as i dun want to admit, there are plenty of "investors" in the market. In fact, the market is dominated by them. Price will come down. But at a slow pace.

Don't worry, the investors are not winning. They are losing on -ve cocr in the next few years. For high ends, the market is extremely slow, or dead for certain areas.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jan 3 2014, 10:55 PM)
Sadly, there is still no technology that will mass produce completed buildings in factory and deliver it to the site as finished goods. We still need labour to put the building up at site. 

I know the price of property is sky high now until it is just unreasonable. But we all know the cause is demand and supply mechanism --> easy bank credits, property developer which introduce DIBS etc, and everybody thought property price will not come down, if you don't buy it now, you never will afford. That has distort the market until it reaches this skewed speculative state

The price inflation is a phenomenon in free market. In normal property market, price will increase slowly in tandem with inflation. With the government intervention, speculative demand will be curbed and naturally, the price will adjust itself back to the normal level in time
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It is adjusting now, but slowly.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 11:18 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 11:10 PM)
I choose not to go to temple and ask Ang Gong... can someone here please enlighten me about the price of property in KV after adjustment? In long term, i believed that the price of the properties will head to north instead of south...but how to identify a good entry point for property investment?
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When it makes financial sense. For those season investors, a lot of them stopped buying since 2010. In 2011 and 2012, the prices went up very fast, but the transaction has dropped greatly.
gspirit01
post Jan 3 2014, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jan 3 2014, 11:17 PM)
Hope so. But I don't know whether it will go stagnant then down, or stagnant then up. Still anybody's guess
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It will be down. But down how much how fast, no one can tell. In fact, investors are losing money on high end now. But, in struggling, they will keep on increasing their price to make up for lost interest.

If u read the earlier nanyang post, u sum up every parties views, u will know the trend.

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