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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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yang1976
post Dec 25 2013, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 25 2013, 11:31 AM)
Realistic assessment. However for people with vested interest, will have their vision only on positive outcome even if unrealistic.
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In given non-financially strong person or lack of capability to acquire will makes it looks unrealistic bcos fear of loosing , once lost they have nothing much for next bet. Those already made it, next steps seem easy with whatever they have gained previously since they can play the game over and over again. Today as long as gaining a spot on good proj even the projected ROI may not be as good as yrs ago yet still doable for seasoned investors who know which proj is best for the money in future.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 25 2013, 12:36 PM
plumberly
post Dec 25 2013, 12:38 PM

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I had a look at PropertyGuru web site last night and I think my mind is playing tricks on me, the prices appear to be slightly lower than 6 months ago. Ha. May be they are the same as 6 months ago but with the bubble burst forecast/hope in some people's mind, one will "see" what one hopes to see. Ha.

Your view on recent RE prices?

Cheerio.


cranx
post Dec 25 2013, 01:01 PM

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WCT addresses softening property market
23 December 2013


link to full article
http://realestatesmalaysia.blogspot.com/20...perty-mart.html

QUOTE
WCT Holdings Bhd is taking steps to prepare the construction and property development group for the anticipated softening of the property market.

Managing Director Taing Kim Hwa says: “WCT is mindful of and concerned about the potential softening of the property market, which may result in the slower take-up of properties.

“In order to mitigate this, the company will focus on seizing a strategic property land bank to support further expansion to its property portfolio in developed  and mature areas such as Klang Valley, Iskandar Malaysia, Penang and Kota Kinabalu.”

WCT has been involved in property development for close to two decades.  This is carried out mainly by wholly-owned subsidiary unit WCT Land Sdn Bhd, which is also involved in property investment and property management.

WCT has property projects in Petaling Jaya, Shah Alam and Klang in Selangor, as well as Iskandar Malaysia in Johor.  They include the Skyz Jelutong Residences at Bukit Jelutong, Shah Alam; Paradigm Residences in Petaling Jaya; the Medini Signature in Iskandar Malaysia; and The Landmark at Bukit Tinggi 2, Klang.

Taing tells FocusM that for next year, WCT’s property unit will focus on strengthening its market presence in the local property market.

“With a strong 17-year track record in property development, WCT will continue to strengthen its market presence in the local property market and expand on the quality land bank aimed at creating the opportunity for the provision of diversified, high-quality and reasonably-priced properties.

“Moving forward, the group will continue to leverage on its real estate development expertise and tract record in the developments of the Bandar Bukit Tinggi Klang township, d’Banyan luxury homes and 1Medini, to create more value for future development projects,” he adds.

In Budget 2014 unveiled in October, the government announced that the RPGT would be increased to 30% for properties disposed of within three years, and to 20% and 15% for properties disposed of within the fourth and fifth years, respectively.

Although the move is seen as part of measures to stablilise the property market, analysts expect demand for property to soften due to increased restrictions to curb speculation.  Other measures include imposing higher minimum prices for foreigners, ban on DIBS (developer interest-bearing scheme) and tighter bank lending.

“We have expected property demand to soften post-Budget 2014 as sentiments are affected …(Nevertheless), the demand for prime locations, affordable housing and landed properties should remain resilient,” says Hwang DBS Vickers in a mid-November research report.


Challenging outlook for banks in 2014
22 December 2013


link to full article
http://realestatesmalaysia.blogspot.com/20...ks-in-2014.html

QUOTE
The banking sector will find it a challenge to post higher earnings growth next year, given concerns that economic activities could be impacted by a pullback in fiscal spending and that loan growth could slow.

The banking industry is very closely related to the macro economy and most people are forecasting slightly slower growth all around.  I think we will also have to manage through bouts of financial market volatility, basically because of the quantitative easing tapering (by the US Federal Reserve) and so on.  So, one must be agile there,” Datuk Seri Nazir Razak, CEO of CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, tells The Edge.

Asked where growth would come from, he says: “We can always grow by eating market share.  We can drive new products.  I mean this year, CIMB has done very well in consumer banking.  How?  We have cut down costs, we’ve grown in new segments like ASB (Amanah Saham Bumiputra unit trust), we have grown back in SME banking and in hire purchase, and wealth management.”

At least four banking analysts say they expect loan growth to come down in 2014 – probably for the first time in two years – as a result of Bank Negara Malaysia’s ongoing moves to tighten consume lending as well as the government’s recently announced measures to cool the property market that kick in next year.

These will drag down growth in consumer loans, especially residential mortgages, says CIMB Research’s Winson Ng.  He expects overall loan growth to slow to 9.5% to 10.5% in 2014 compared with an estimate growth of 10% to 11% this year.


Some analysts, including Ng, however, believe bank earnings will likely grow at a stronger pace of 11.6% next year compared with an estimated 9% this year.

“The improvement in earnings will come from an expected narrower margin contraction and smaller increase in overheads.  But ….. we remain “neutral” on the sector because the improvement is anticipated to be small and growth will merely recover to 2012 levels,” Ng says.

While most research houses have a “neutral” call on the banking sector, at least two – Alliance Research and RHB Research – are taking a contrarian view with an “overweight” call.

Malaysia’s economy is expected to stay flat or at best post marginally higher growth next year.  Nomura Equity Research, for instance, sees Malaysia’s GDP growing 4.5% next year compared with 4.3% this year.

Cheah Kim Yoong, banking analyst at Alliance Reseach, expects loan growth to slow to 9% next year from 10.5% this year.  Last year, loan growth was 10.4%.

“The rule of thumb is that loan growth is twice your GDP growth rate.  In the last two years, it was more than twice because of easy credit, but now it should go back to normal or just below (GDP), given the loan tightening measures.


This post has been edited by cranx: Dec 25 2013, 01:04 PM
kevyeoh
post Dec 25 2013, 01:57 PM

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penang properties get auctioned off? haha...
nice xmas joke...
smile.gif


QUOTE(teng_08 @ Dec 24 2013, 10:34 AM)
Yep, with the ban on DIBS and RPGT increase, those who bought multiple units for investment purpose will be having a hard time ahead. But of course this does not apply to the super rich ppl smile.gif
It'll be interesting to see if properties in Penang gets auctioned off...
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gspirit01
post Dec 25 2013, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 25 2013, 12:38 PM)
I had a look at PropertyGuru web site last night and I think my mind is playing tricks on me, the prices appear to be slightly lower than 6 months ago. Ha. May be they are the same as 6 months ago but with the bubble burst forecast/hope in some people's mind, one will "see" what one hopes to see. Ha.

Your view on recent RE prices?

Cheerio.
*
I am tracking some prop from several months back. Condo psf has been dropping! Landed is stagnating or dropping somewhat. However, there are some who actually increase their sell prices, despite their prop have been listing for sometimes. Can't understand the rationales behind. If it is not selling until now, how would increasing their sell prices help ?
plumberly
post Dec 25 2013, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 25 2013, 03:17 PM)
However, there are some who actually increase their sell prices, despite their prop have been listing for sometimes.  Can't understand the rationales behind.  If it is not selling until now, how would increasing their sell prices help ?
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Maybe these are the super rich ones who want to project a healthy increasing RE market while others are fearful. Ha.
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 25 2013, 03:49 PM

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Some ads too cheap to blif = bad agents (X)

Some ads too expensive = bad owners (X)


negisf
post Dec 25 2013, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 25 2013, 03:17 PM)
I am tracking some prop from several months back.  Condo psf has been dropping! Landed is stagnating or dropping somewhat.  However, there are some who actually increase their sell prices, despite their prop have been listing for sometimes. Can't understand the rationales behind.  If it is not selling until now, how would increasing their sell prices help ?
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I'm also tracking landed in setia alam area..
Prices still increasing about 10k average since the last 6 months..
Example, late last year, Nov-Dec 2012, newly completed 20x70 is around 600-630k.
But now those prices shoot up to above 700k,, resting around 730k-750k,


QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 25 2013, 03:49 PM)
Some ads too cheap to blif = bad agents (X)

Some ads too expensive = bad owners (X)
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Yup. Some agent posted units that has lower than others prices.
But when I called, they said that unit sold out. Propose me a higher price same type unit.
But when I check back the posting date, it's only like 2-3 days ago..
I meant got so fast mou sold out? This is not something few hundred dollar ler..
But few hundred thousand
SUSjolokia
post Dec 25 2013, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 25 2013, 03:17 PM)
I am tracking some prop from several months back.  Condo psf has been dropping! Landed is stagnating or dropping somewhat.  However, there are some who actually increase their sell prices, despite their prop have been listing for sometimes.  Can't understand the rationales behind.  If it is not selling until now, how would increasing their sell prices help ?
*
Old tricks lah ! If cannot sell increase the price, still cannot sell increase some more, ignorant people would think "wah keep on increasing better buy fast before increase some more, every couple months increase later sure can untung kaya raya..lol

I saw a few iproperty unit price up, up, up later lelong ..wakakaka

Those asking for heaven price properties advertised more than a year also no taker, no need to bother with those dreamer, let them keep on dreaming. ..zzz

Previously seller market it was if u can't afford to pay there r other who can afford, now is buyer market if u not willing to cut price there r other who r willing.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 25 2013, 04:24 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 25 2013, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 25 2013, 04:20 PM)
I saw a few  iproperty unit price up, up, up later lelong ..wakakaka
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Boss how to know the lelong unit is actually the one ads up up and up in price har???
SUSjolokia
post Dec 25 2013, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 25 2013, 05:00 PM)
Boss how to know the lelong unit is actually the one ads up up and up in price har???
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Case 1 saw the photo look familiar call up agent to confirm address, Happened to know the neighbour "my relatives" told the house no tenant for nearly 2 years, but alway wanna sell above market price, later went auction,.

Case 2 owner is my colleague friend neighbours.

Case 3 happened to know the agent confirm the unit went auction.





ManutdGiggs
post Dec 25 2013, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 25 2013, 05:51 PM)
Case 1 saw the photo look familiar call up agent to confirm address,  Happened to know the neighbour "my relatives" told the house no tenant for nearly 2 years, but alway wanna sell above market price, later went auction,.

Case 2 owner is my colleague friend neighbours.

Case 3 happened to know the agent confirm the unit went auction.
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Icic. The world is just so small. laugh.gif
plumberly
post Dec 25 2013, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 25 2013, 05:51 PM)
Case 1 saw the photo look familiar call up agent to confirm address,  Happened to know the neighbour "my relatives" told the house no tenant for nearly 2 years, but alway wanna sell above market price, later went auction,.

Case 2 owner is my colleague friend neighbours.

Case 3 happened to know the agent confirm the unit went auction.
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Wah, you really have your finger on the RE pulse! Ha.


Awareness

then

Knowledge

then

Skill

then

Mastery !!!


Keep it up! And share! Ha.
mirzan007
post Dec 25 2013, 07:16 PM

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if the property goes auction what actually will happen to the owner? declare bankrupt or just blacklisted (ctos)?
Kevin Chan
post Dec 25 2013, 07:39 PM

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QUOTE(mirzan007 @ Dec 25 2013, 07:16 PM)
if the property goes auction what actually will happen to the owner? declare bankrupt or just blacklisted (ctos)?
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http://bankruptcy.lawyers.com/foreclosures...w-It-Works.html
SUStat3179
post Dec 25 2013, 07:42 PM

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O mai, so many people here salivating to the prospect of a property firesale next year....

I wonder whether they would qualify for a loan when it does happen...
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 25 2013, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 25 2013, 07:42 PM)
O mai, so many people here salivating to the prospect of a property firesale next year....

I wonder whether they would qualify for a loan when it does happen...
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Tok is foc ma brows.gif
Wiredx
post Dec 25 2013, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 25 2013, 07:42 PM)
O mai, so many people here salivating to the prospect of a property firesale next year....

I wonder whether they would qualify for a loan when it does happen...
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Just a few months back u were salivating too bro
SUStat3179
post Dec 25 2013, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 25 2013, 07:44 PM)
Just a few months back u were salivating too bro
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Yeah man, I am salivating even now... biggrin.gif
forever1979
post Dec 25 2013, 08:42 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 25 2013, 09:01 AM)
The weakness in such shop-offices is the design that require customers to climb up and down the staircase.  The developer should design for a few common lifts at the spacious lobby and common corridors at each floor leading to individual units.  This ease access for customers and tenancy rate in the building.  The other very odd design is lack of rubbish chute for high-rise.
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Your idea is good, but by having common lift, it will incur extra service /maintenance charge to the owner.
I have come across many such shoplots, when it come to auction, many interested bidders turn off because of the huge outstanding service charge due to the JMB.

Those retail lot is actually charging > RM1.0psf for the service charges for maintenance lift and common area. If the shoplot do not have the huge crowd, it will not be viable.

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