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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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OPT
post Dec 24 2013, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM)
No one selling, no one buying & no one occupying - is that a good market?
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...means ghost sell, ghost buy and ghost stay...in cantonese brows.gif
katijar
post Dec 24 2013, 08:45 AM

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but but ... asking price still increasing ... how?
SUSjolokia
post Dec 24 2013, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Dec 24 2013, 07:55 AM)
Or it means that there is an oversupply in the market.
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Obviously over supply ? Spain property market in the making. shakehead.gif

QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 24 2013, 08:26 AM)
When you say price has gone up to 700K are you refering to word of mouth, asking prices, sale prices or valuation prices? Because all 4 are different.
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No difference ! people like to "hear" their property price go up, though paper/sound of gain. laugh.gif
QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM)
No one selling, no one buying & no one occupying - is that a good market?
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Very Good ! Jolly Good thumbup.gif

Dead Chicken coming brows.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 24 2013, 08:46 AM
kurtkob78
post Dec 24 2013, 08:56 AM

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even before the increase in rate there were many prop auctions. with the increase, this percentage will obviously increase.

furthermore, with the increase in cost of living, many will not be able to service the loan especially those who commit too much to acquire overpriced prop
yang1976
post Dec 24 2013, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 24 2013, 08:45 AM)
Obviously over supply ? Spain property market in the making.  shakehead.gif
No difference ! people like to "hear" their property price go up, though paper/sound of gain.  laugh.gif

Very Good ! Jolly Good  thumbup.gif

Dead Chicken coming  brows.gif
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If you find lelong dead chicken, it is slaughtered chicken, not free ya, it will costs you as well, so make sure you got money to buy dead checken.

If chicken not dead, plenty peacocks are in the making smile.gif
gspirit01
post Dec 24 2013, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM)
More properties to be auctioned next year[SIZE=7]

Read all about it here:-
http://www.propertyguru.com.my/en/property...m_content=links
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Thanks for sharing. That is what I thought as well. Removal of DIBS really kills!
SUSNew Klang
post Dec 24 2013, 09:28 AM

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Any good dead chicken that I can buy cheap? Must be good area freehold landed
SUSjolokia
post Dec 24 2013, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 24 2013, 09:19 AM)
Thanks for sharing.  That is what I thought as well.  Removal of  DIBS really kills!
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Not true lah ! HBA r a bunch of dreamer.

According to developer & REHDA next year properties market will back to full boom, people realised that there is no price drop, so people will continue to BBB & price will UUU for sure, after SPM results all those students will move into KV to work & study, they would sapu all current house either buy or rent, so no worry of oversupply.
People r dead worry over GST will cause house price further going up, so sure buy on 2014, then according to some minister price of goods will drop after GST, people have more spare money sure buy more properties to goreng.

Developers say it took 60 years to build enough house for Malaysia to equalise develop nation, so at lease 60 years property booming.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 24 2013, 09:35 AM
gspirit01
post Dec 24 2013, 09:36 AM

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If dead chicken is coming, would you pick it up ?

Assuming there is a crash of price by 25%, and the price stop falling and maintaining for the next 3 yrs (Optimistic assumption, in reality, the price will keep falling!):

1st yr, 0% up
Original Price = MYR 1,000,000
Downpayment = MYR 100,000
Loan Amount = MYR 900,000
Sell Price = MYR 1,000,000
Interest Paid = MYR 40,203
Principal Paid = MYR 14,519
Monthly Payment = MYR 4,560
Total Instalment = MYR 54,722
Other Fees = MYR 40,000
Total Outlay = MYR 194,722
Principal Remain = MYR 885,481
Rent Collected = MYR 30,000
Total Profit/Loss = -MYR 65,684
%profit with rent/outlay = -34%
%profit w/o rent/outlay = -49%
COCR (w/rent) = -40%

2nd yr, 0% up
Original Price = MYR 1,000,000
Downpayment = MYR 100,000
Loan Amount = MYR 900,000
Sell Price = MYR 1,000,000
Interest Paid = MYR 79,739
Principal Paid = MYR 29,705
Monthly Payment = MYR 4,560
Total Instalment = MYR 109,444
Other Fees = MYR 40,000
Total Outlay = MYR 249,444
Principal Remain = MYR 870,295
Rent Collected = MYR 60,000
Total Profit/Loss = -MYR 90,034
%profit with rent/outlay = -36%
%profit w/o rent/outlay = -60%
COCR (w/rent) = -48%


3rd yr, 0% up
Original Price = MYR 1,000,000
Downpayment = MYR 100,000
Loan Amount = MYR 900,000
Sell Price = MYR 1,000,000
Interest Paid = MYR 118,577
Principal Paid = MYR 45,589
Monthly Payment = MYR 4,560
Total Instalment = MYR 164,166
Other Fees = MYR 40,000
Total Outlay = MYR 304,166
Principal Remain = MYR 854,411
Rent Collected = MYR 60,000
Total Profit/Loss = -MYR 112,989
%profit with rent/outlay = -37%
%profit w/o rent/outlay = -57%
COCR (w/rent) = -46%

gspirit01
post Dec 24 2013, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 24 2013, 09:31 AM)
Not true lah ! HBA r a bunch of dreamer.

According to developer & REHDA next year properties market will back to full boom,  people realised that there is no price drop, so people will continue to BBB & price will UUU for sure,  after SPM results all those students will move into KV to work & study,  they would sapu all current house either buy or rent,  so no worry of oversupply.
People r dead worry over GST will cause house price further going up, so sure buy on 2014, then according to some minister price of goods will drop after GST, people have more spare money sure buy more properties to goreng.

Developers say it took 60 years to build enough house for Malaysia to equalise develop nation,  so at lease 60 years property booming.
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Haha, I think I belong to that dreamer group as well. I have tried to work out the math, starting from salary -> getting loan -> VP -> loan paying. Can't see how these people can afford to buy. Maybe rich parents can help out ?
SUSNew Klang
post Dec 24 2013, 09:47 AM

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Dream big. 1M prop.
katijar
post Dec 24 2013, 09:48 AM

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many old landed in oledi > 1 mil lor...
gspirit01
post Dec 24 2013, 10:01 AM

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Sry, made an error in 3rd rent total:

3rd yr, 0% up
Original Price = MYR 1,000,000
Downpayment = MYR 100,000
Loan Amount = MYR 900,000
Sell Price = MYR 1,000,000
Interest Paid = MYR 118,577
Principal Paid = MYR 45,589
Monthly Payment = MYR 4,560
Total Instalment = MYR 164,166
Other Fees = MYR 40,000
Total Outlay = MYR 304,166
Principal Remain = MYR 854,411
Rent Collected = MYR 90,000
Total Profit/Loss = -MYR 112,989
%profit with rent/outlay = -37%
%profit w/o rent/outlay = -67%
COCR (w/rent) = -53%

SaProp
post Dec 24 2013, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(forever1979 @ Dec 24 2013, 05:22 AM)
yes, the occupancy rate is very annoying.
My fren who stays in a landed in Kota Kemuning, I think he bought the house 4 yrs ago about RM400k plus, move in 1 year ago, i just when there recently, looks like < 50% occupy. and I believe many places is like that.
But the price has just shoot up to RM700K.

It shows that either the seller cannot sell due to higher asking price or some really means for own stay.
but surprisingly there is no auction for all these houses or condo and it show those property owners are really cash flow strong.
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Not true for today kota kemuning is <50% occupancy, I stay here about 10 years, initial stage which is more than 5 years ago yes, but today, i would say more than 95% occupacy, and majority are owner stay, majority of those who invest already sold off due to recent hike.
Showtime747
post Dec 24 2013, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 24 2013, 12:07 AM)

A financial wizard  notworthy.gif  Higher profit margin than typical illicit drug dealer profit margin of 100%; Can't think of any other business could be better than property flipping. Investment bankers, hedge funds, illicit drug dealers are in the wrong business and should learn from sifu here  rclxms.gif  thumbup.gif
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Although we don't like it, but the flippers could make much more in % wise. With DIBS and zero entry cost, flippers could buy a studio for RM300k. Their cost is maybe RM8k (stamp duty for S&P and loan). Upon VP, they flip it for RM400k. Their profit is RM100k. Their capital is RM8k. Their margin is hence 1250%. In effect, they use RM8k to turn it into RM100k ohmy.gif

But as always, everything good or bad, will come to an end. Flippers can't do that anymore nowadays
teng_08
post Dec 24 2013, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM)
More properties to be auctioned next year[SIZE=7]

Dec 23, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.my

Next year’s hike in real property gains tax (RPGT) rates and the ban on Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) will likely see more property being auctioned in 2014, according to National House Buyers Association (HBA) secretary-general Chang Kim Loong.

“I will not be surprised if there will be a lot of properties for auction next year. I won't be surprised because a lot of people who bought into properties for investment, they are now caught out with RPGT and DIBS,” he said in a SunBiz interview.

He noted that in case the property market slows down and buyers who acquired properties with DIBS are not able to pay their loans, ending up with their property being foreclosed; these buyers will not be able to repay their debts even after their properties have been auctioned while banks will not be able to recover the loan’s full amount.

“Assuming there is a slow down in the market, do you think the bank will finance 100 percent of DIBS at RM600,000 for a unit that is actually priced at RM500,000 without DIBS? The banks will also not be able to recover the RM600,000 (after the property is auctioned off) because they hiked it up in such a way for interest purpose,” explained Chang.

Notably, the banning of DIBS including any of its permutation is expected to stabilise the property market as well as bring speculation to a more realistic level since property prices will now be more reflective of the market value.

“From the last discussion I had with the Valuation and Property Services Department, they said the market has slowed down to a more moderate level and they expect that there will be a saturation point next year,” he said.

“I hope it becomes a reality and to a certain extent, first time house buyers will be able to buy into properties.”

Read all about it here:-
http://www.propertyguru.com.my/en/property...m_content=links
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Yep, with the ban on DIBS and RPGT increase, those who bought multiple units for investment purpose will be having a hard time ahead. But of course this does not apply to the super rich ppl smile.gif
It'll be interesting to see if properties in Penang gets auctioned off...
icemanfx
post Dec 24 2013, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM)
More properties to be auctioned next year[SIZE=7]

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It take 2 to 3 years from first classified as npl to auction. Don't expect hike in numbers in auction til 2015 or 2016.
icemanfx
post Dec 24 2013, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 24 2013, 10:11 AM)
Although we don't like it, but the flippers could make much more in % wise. With DIBS and zero entry cost, flippers could buy a studio for RM300k. Their cost is maybe RM8k (stamp duty for S&P and loan). Upon VP, they flip it for RM400k. Their profit is RM100k. Their capital is RM8k. Their margin is hence 1250%. In effect, they use RM8k to turn it into RM100k  ohmy.gif

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Investment bankers, illicit drug dealers, hedge fund managers, etc are all in the wrong business, should learn from from sifu n flippers here.
SUSjolokia
post Dec 24 2013, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(teng_08 @ Dec 24 2013, 10:34 AM)
Yep, with the ban on DIBS and RPGT increase, those who bought multiple units for investment purpose will be having a hard time ahead. But of course this does not apply to the super rich ppl smile.gif
It'll be interesting to see if properties in Penang gets auctioned off...
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Penang lan all si beh u lui "very loaded" one, typhoon haiyan come also will not let property go auction one.
All those auction r isolated case only, pua tang zhui "wannabe" flipper from mainland maybe...lol
kennytkg
post Dec 24 2013, 10:52 AM

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wow

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