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> Personal Financial Management V3, It's all about managing your $$$

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sonicbull
post Feb 17 2014, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Feb 17 2014, 04:02 PM)
Lets play a game. Say you have RM 7000/mth to invest.

How would you allocate your investment(s) and in what frequency?

Other info: You have house loan at BLR-2.4% and car loan at 2% p.a. Your family is well provided and don't ask you for anything else.

Lets see how you grow this cash! Begin!
*
My answer in general...
After monthly repayment of the loans, the remaining cash
'Agressive':I will invest in a mixture of 10%fd, 30%mutual funds & 60%stocks.
If I have a business plan:I will save up enough capital in a fd/savings account to start the business.
Balance lifestyle: 5%fd, 50%vanguard etf, 45%stocks & mutual funds.

kaiserwulf
post Feb 18 2014, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(sonicbull @ Feb 17 2014, 09:38 PM)
My answer in general...
After monthly repayment of the loans, the remaining cash
'Agressive':I will invest in a mixture of 10%fd, 30%mutual funds & 60%stocks.
If I have a business plan:I will save up enough capital in a fd/savings account to start the business.
Balance lifestyle: 5%fd, 50%vanguard etf, 45%stocks & mutual funds.
*
Just curious... Why want to pay for 4.2% house loan when you get 6% or more investing in other stuff (as you mentioned MF and stocks)

Separately, is it wise to pay off 2% car loan when it penalizes you when you opt for early settlement.

Others any comments on his choice?
kaiserwulf
post Feb 18 2014, 08:01 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Feb 17 2014, 04:09 PM)
FD would be the only choice I guess. You could choose for something like OCBCs smart savers account. By depositing
RM 700 a month you would be getting around 2.75%p.a.
*
It's 7000/mth bro...
wongmunkeong
post Feb 18 2014, 08:52 AM

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QUOTE(sonicbull @ Feb 17 2014, 09:38 PM)
My answer in general...
After monthly repayment of the loans, the remaining cash
'Agressive':I will invest in a mixture of 10%fd, 30%mutual funds & 60%stocks.
If I have a business plan:I will save up enough capital in a fd/savings account to start the business.
Balance lifestyle: 5%fd, 50%vanguard etf, 45%stocks & mutual funds.
*
no expert here yar, just curious.
When U mentioned "30%mutual funds & 60%stocks"
U meant 30% bond funds or equity funds?
IF U meant equity funds.. er. then one would be 90% into equities (30% +60% stocks)?
Very aggressive indeed.

that 10% in FD - what if market collapses within 6 mths or 1 year.
how would one take advantage with monthly i keep my Fixed Income (FD or Bonds IMHO) at only 10% monthly?


Based on Kaiserwulf's "game" criteria:
Say you have RM 7000/mth to invest.
How would you allocate your investment(s) and in what frequency?
Other info: You have house loan at BLR-2.4% and car loan at 2% p.a. Your family is well provided and don't ask you for anything else.

My personal additional assumptions: mortgage = FlexiMortgage +do NOT have EPF a/c +not a biz owner.
IF biz owner, i'd suggest own biz be part of "Equities excluding REITs or Properties" if my biz is in trading/services

I would:
A. $7K - channel 50% to build emergency buffer, 50% for investments.
Once emergency buffer hits 6 months expenses or 8% of my net worth (keep topping up bit by bit if it is too far from 8%), 100% will be channeled to investments

B. Investments
1. Asset allocation of:
a. Fixed Income: 1/3 - to hold dry powder for FEAR / major value buys
b. Equities excluding REITs or Properties: 1/3
c. Real Equities (REITs & Properties): 1/3

2. Sub-asset allocation:
a. Fixed Income:
11.11% to local cash equivalent in FlexiMortgage
22.22% to local developed bond funds. Heck if BLR goes up, may even move this portion into FlexiMortgage
Note: since FI is just to hold dry powder for usage, local bond funds & FD/MM is good enough. Dont want to complicate things

b. Equities excluding REITs or Properties:
20% in Developed Markets ETF like URTH (including US) or a mix of ETFs like VEA (dev mkt exUS) +SPY (US)
13.33% in Emerging Markets ETF like a EEM or mix of CIMBA40 (ASEAN) +CIMBC25 (China)
yes yes CIMBA40 has SG in it, which is a Developed Mkt.
Again - point is not too nitty gritty, "close enough"

c. Real Equities (REITs & Properties):
REITs: Based on value hunting in SGX (0% tax on dividends for individuals) & MY (local expertise mar)
Criteria: net DY% >=7%pa & Price/NAP <=0.9 & D/E or leverage <=33% (buy for DY%)
OR Price/NAP <0.7 & D/E or leverage <=33% (buy depressed price for flipping)
Properties: Based on value hunting similar to above reasoning.


3. Execution:
With the Asset & sub-asset allocation done +specific vehicles identified, i would execute once every 4 or 6 MONTHS.
Why 4 or 6 months?
a. More cost effective purchases of ETFs, yet "timely" enough as done at least 2 to 3 times a year
b. Forces a review of Asset Allocation & sub-allocation at least 2 to 3 times a year

If AFTER the new injection of funds, any of the Equity classes or sub-classes varies 20% or more, FORCE a rebalance.
eg. 20% is for Developed markets, thus
if Developed markets hit <=16% force buy to hit back 20%
if Developed markets hit >=24% force sell to hit back 20%

If AFTER the new injection of funds, both Equity classes varies 40% or more, FORCE a VALUE BUY - spend down Fixed Income % down to 10% and bump up Equities & Real Equities equally.
IF DONE - do not buy into Equities anymore until Fixed Income rebuilt back to approximately 33.33%, then Execute as usual biggrin.gif

Why?
Approximately every year, about 10%+/- fall is expected
Once in 4 to 6 years, about 20%+/- fall is expected
Once in 8 to x years, major falls is expected (think 1997-1998 ASEAN currency crisis, 2008 credit crunch)
Statistics from statistical & equities company - sorry, can't recall which/where

Whew.. that's it.
All logical criticisms & suggested solutions are welcomed. The above is actually part of my "possible" Trust's asset management rules tongue.gif

Just a thought notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Feb 18 2014, 08:55 AM
crest
post Feb 18 2014, 08:53 AM

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Hi guys, i found this a good read for our personal finance management from Li Ka Shing, HK richest man. do read up wink.gif

http://e27.co/li-ka-shing-teaches-buy-car-house-5-years/
dEviLs
post Feb 19 2014, 10:04 AM

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Dear all, I have a scenario here and needs some advice.

Currently my outstanding home morgage loan amount stands in the region of RM185k, with IR of BLR-2.1%. As I'm expecting a lump sum of fund coming my way (around 400k), would I be better off :

1. To settle the loan in full;
2. Place a huge sum like RM100k into the loan account to save interest; or
3. Invest elsewhere but I am not convinced that it's a good timing to invest in risky assets now

Appreciate any opinion, thanks biggrin.gif
kaiserwulf
post Feb 19 2014, 10:07 AM

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Nice breakdown WMK. I am just curious why the percentages since we have the game case of RM 7000/mth. 11.11% = RM 770 approx. Any reason for this number?

I like your 8% guideline for emergency cash. RM 500k networth = RM 40 000. Decent but not overboard.

Networth is asset + EPF - liability?

Also... anybody else with their personal breakdowns?

QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 18 2014, 08:52 AM)
no expert here yar, just curious.
When U mentioned "30%mutual funds & 60%stocks"
U meant 30% bond funds or equity funds?
IF U meant equity funds.. er. then one would be 90% into equities (30% +60% stocks)?
Very aggressive indeed.

that 10% in FD - what if market collapses within 6 mths or 1 year.
how would one take advantage with monthly i keep my Fixed Income (FD or Bonds IMHO) at only 10% monthly?
Based on Kaiserwulf's "game" criteria:
Say you have RM 7000/mth to invest.
How would you allocate your investment(s) and in what frequency?
Other info: You have house loan at BLR-2.4% and car loan at 2% p.a. Your family is well provided and don't ask you for anything else.

My personal additional assumptions: mortgage = FlexiMortgage +do NOT have EPF a/c +not a biz owner.
IF biz owner, i'd suggest own biz be part of "Equities excluding REITs or Properties" if my biz is in trading/services

I would:
A. $7K - channel 50% to build emergency buffer, 50% for investments.
Once emergency buffer hits 6 months expenses or 8% of my net worth (keep topping up bit by bit if it is too far from 8%), 100% will be channeled to investments

B. Investments
1. Asset allocation of:
a. Fixed Income: 1/3 - to hold dry powder for FEAR / major value buys
b. Equities excluding REITs or Properties: 1/3
c. Real Equities (REITs & Properties): 1/3

2. Sub-asset allocation:
a. Fixed Income:
11.11% to local cash equivalent in FlexiMortgage
22.22% to local developed bond funds. Heck if BLR goes up, may even move this portion into FlexiMortgage
Note: since FI is just to hold dry powder for usage, local bond funds & FD/MM is good enough. Dont want to complicate things

b. Equities excluding REITs or Properties:
20% in Developed Markets ETF like URTH (including US) or a mix of ETFs like VEA (dev mkt exUS) +SPY (US)
13.33% in Emerging Markets ETF like a EEM or mix of CIMBA40 (ASEAN) +CIMBC25 (China)
yes yes CIMBA40 has SG in it, which is a Developed Mkt.
Again - point is not too nitty gritty, "close enough"

c. Real Equities (REITs & Properties):
REITs: Based on value hunting in SGX (0% tax on dividends for individuals) & MY (local expertise mar)
Criteria: net DY% >=7%pa & Price/NAP <=0.9 & D/E or leverage <=33% (buy for DY%)
OR Price/NAP <0.7 & D/E or leverage <=33% (buy depressed price for flipping)
Properties: Based on value hunting similar to above reasoning.
3. Execution:
With the Asset & sub-asset allocation done +specific vehicles identified, i would execute once every 4 or 6 MONTHS.
Why 4 or 6 months?
a. More cost effective purchases of ETFs, yet "timely" enough as done at least 2 to 3 times a year
b. Forces a review of Asset Allocation & sub-allocation at least 2 to 3 times a year

If AFTER the new injection of funds, any of the Equity classes or sub-classes varies 20% or more, FORCE a rebalance.
eg. 20% is for Developed markets, thus
if Developed markets hit <=16% force buy to hit back 20%
if Developed markets hit >=24% force sell to hit back 20%

If AFTER the new injection of funds, both Equity classes varies 40% or more, FORCE a VALUE BUY - spend down Fixed Income % down to 10% and bump up Equities & Real Equities equally.
IF DONE - do not buy into Equities anymore until Fixed Income rebuilt back to approximately 33.33%, then Execute as usual biggrin.gif

Why?
Approximately every year, about 10%+/- fall is expected
Once in 4 to 6 years, about 20%+/- fall is expected
Once in 8 to x years, major falls is expected (think 1997-1998 ASEAN currency crisis, 2008 credit crunch)
Statistics from statistical & equities company - sorry, can't recall which/where

Whew.. that's it.
All logical criticisms & suggested solutions are welcomed. The above is actually part of my "possible" Trust's asset management rules tongue.gif

Just a thought  notworthy.gif
*
Pink Spider
post Feb 19 2014, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 18 2014, 08:52 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
Wong Seafood,

Care to comment a bit?

Just did a calculation of my investment portfolio...and the discovery...

Equities and equity funds: 82%
Bond funds (excluding MM and cash and FDs as emergency reserves): 18%

KLSE stock portfolio 2:1 diversified UT equity funds
wongmunkeong
post Feb 19 2014, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Feb 19 2014, 10:07 AM)
Nice breakdown WMK. I am just curious why the percentages since we have the game case of RM 7000/mth. 11.11% = RM 770 approx. Any reason for this number?

I like your 8% guideline for emergency cash. RM 500k networth = RM 40 000. Decent but not overboard.

Networth is asset + EPF - liability?

Also... anybody else with their personal breakdowns?
*
Hey KaiserWulf (sounds like the old Spectrum48K game tongue.gif - my age is showing bwhahaah),

Reasoning for the %s?
a. the big pix asset allocation of 1/3 1/3 1/3: simple asset class diversification in equal amount.
+Also found in the Talmud though tongue.gif. I ain't Jewish but the tests done on such general asset allocation by statistical organizations are very encouraging - google it
+the 33% in FI allows for a "great save" / great lelong triggered purchase of the 2 types of Equities
+the split of Equity types into "business" and "real estate" is for big pix equity diversification
where biz can hit home runs OR gets slaughtered,
WHILE "real estate" has yearly rental yields +capital appreciation (assumed as rising with inflation) thus even if market crumbles the yearly rental yields feed me

Simple analogy - think soccer / football - this formation of equal weight to "Defense", "Mid-field" and "Strikers"


b. The % in the sub-classes within each Asset class
1. Fixed Income:
If i've a flexi mortgage - i may even forgo bond funds as long term CAGR of bond funds are about 5%pa, and my flexi mortgage is saving me (thus "making me") 4.x%pa at such low interest times. It can only go up.

If no flexi mortgage, 11% in FD/MM is derived from 1/3 of 1/3 smile.gif and the balance in bond funds 2/3 of 1/3
Why? Generally bond funds get higher CAGR than MM. However, have to factor in that black swan thinggy of interest rate spikes.
Anyhow, didnt spend much time here coz FI is more of dry powder keeping for non-programmatic purchases (ie triggered by the 2 FORCED asset reallocation mentioned)


2. Equities exREITs & Properties:
Developed Mkt slight overweight due to longer term stability (think reliability) VS Emerging Mkts (higher frequency of dips). Statistically true though i can't recall where i got the few info from heheh tongue.gif. google = best friend.


Yup, net worth = assets - liabilities, where if one has EPF a/c it is part of assets
note though i generally dont count "fake assets" like cars, bikes, 100" tv, etc into the assets.


kaiserwulf
post Feb 19 2014, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 19 2014, 11:27 AM)
<<advice>>
*
Looks good rclxms.gif What's the annual return for 2013 following that if I may ask?

'i assume you are practicing that already' so its not too difficult to count.
wongmunkeong
post Feb 19 2014, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 19 2014, 10:20 AM)
Wong Seafood,

Care to comment a bit?

Just did a calculation of my investment portfolio...and the discovery...

Equities and equity funds: 82%
Bond funds (excluding MM and cash and FDs as emergency reserves): 18%

KLSE stock portfolio 2:1 diversified UT equity funds
*
Total investments (including EPF and EPF-invested into funds/stocks boh?):
Fixed Income: 18%
Equity: 82%

no right wrong thing wor bro Pink.
just opinions, like noses - everyone has one (unless surgically removed to spite face or accidents tongue.gif)

Thus IMHO for a 30yr+ old:
A bit on the aggressive side

a. visualize: If 1997 or 2008 happens again, how would U respond? (not react yar - react = auto fear/greed heheh)
If U want to respond by buying spree - yr 18% enough ka? to average down yr cost, where yr Equity lost 40% - 80%
yes yes - happens once a blue moon.. but blue moons seem to happen more often than 10yrs these past 2 decades heheh.

b. then again, to balance (a.) - how much U willing to "lose out" as opportunity cost to hold back for (a) and also for Fixed Income to be a ballast / stabilizing factor to your investment return?


bottom line = we ALL KNOW equities go up long term
problems:
1. can we hold and stomach the wild swings of being ultra heavy in equities?
ie. "fear selling"

2. can we OUT LAST the dips or market irrationality?
ie. not forced to sell to meet requirements, "need selling"

my apologies Pink - no clear 1 or 0 answer as each sees the above and have own thoughs + management
heck some dont even bother hehe

me - my personal approach is to manage it is by:
3. having emergency buffer + investment assets strictly separated, thus i can make my Fixed Income to ZERO or near that if necessary to buy ultra depressed equities

4. have equal weightage on major asset classes + use a programmatic investment as 1 of my approach,
coz i admit i dont have crystal balls to see future

5. the smaller % (Vs 4. above) approach of opportunistic investing is to satiate my known "tweak it better" nature which needs to be scratched on & off tongue.gif.

just a thought notworthy.gif
wongmunkeong
post Feb 19 2014, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Feb 19 2014, 11:52 AM)
Looks good rclxms.gif What's the annual return for 2013 following that if I may ask?

'i assume you are practicing that already' so its not too difficult to count.
*
i am currently doing the 1/3 1/3 1/3 and the programmatic + FORCED rebalancing.
+ started INTENTIONALLY moving into Developed mkts last year (as per shared game's response).

however:
a. i'm not doing ETFs yet (i dont have $7Kpm free for investment lar tongue.gif), just stocks & funds +flexi mortgage.
b. i keep pumping monthly savings into "investment assets" monthly (Fixed income - flexi-mortgage until channeled into equities)
c. my tracking is per transaction-based with & distribution pro-rated into all holdings as at the ex-date

Thus, due to (a.) (b.) (c.), i can only easily share:
1. Each transaction's CAGR
2. Each group (Stock name or fund name) CAGR (ie. taking each transaction's CAGR into account per stock or per fund)
3. total net worth growth pm & pa

I think (1.) & (2.) is too long/complicated to list, thus my net worth or ROE growth?
note i didnt buy new home & i dont count cars, 100" TVs, etc. as assets:
2010: 37.05%
2011: 18.91% (index futures exploration soured, profits hit)
2012: 28.35%
2013: 15.20% (complicated pregnancy & birth cost impacted savings for investments since had to rebuild emergency buffer)

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Feb 19 2014, 01:00 PM
Pink Spider
post Feb 19 2014, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 19 2014, 11:57 AM)
Total investments (including EPF and EPF-invested into funds/stocks boh?):
Fixed Income: 18%
Equity: 82%
EPF excluded

2. can we OUT LAST the dips or market irrationality?
ie. not forced to sell to meet requirements, "need selling"

me - my personal approach is to manage it is by:
3.  having emergency buffer + investment assets strictly separated, thus i can make my Fixed Income to ZERO or near that if necessary to buy ultra depressed equities
thumbup.gif
My 12 months emergency buffer is excluded from the FI 18:82 EQ calculation, which only takes into account my "investment assets" i.e. stocks and mutual funds meant for investment. Even my cash in trading trust account and in Cash Management Fund are excluded. I don't incorporate those cash into the equation cos those are like my "working capital", go up and down depending on my monthly cash flows and how much I went drinking in a particular month.

Wait, do I read wrongly...YOU WILL USE YOUR EMERGENCY BUFFER TO BUY ULTRA DEPRESSED EQUITIES???
shocking.gif
*
First of all, thanks for the long-winded detailed reply notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Feb 19 2014, 07:55 PM
wongmunkeong
post Feb 19 2014, 08:08 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 19 2014, 07:53 PM)
First of all, thanks for the long-winded detailed reply notworthy.gif
*
older ppl get longer winded mar laugh.gif
anyhow, no - i wont touch my emergency funds for investments.
when i said that i'm even willing to go "fixed income" 0% and up my Equities in extreme value, i mean "fixed income" portion of my investment assets.
Pink Spider
post Feb 19 2014, 08:12 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 19 2014, 08:08 PM)
older ppl get longer winded mar  laugh.gif
anyhow, no - i wont touch my emergency funds for investments.
when i said that i'm even willing to go "fixed income" 0% and up my Equities in extreme value, i mean "fixed income" portion of my investment assets.
*
Ok, let me recap, do correct me if I got your lecture points wrong...

- if emergency buffer are sufficient and clearly distinguished from investment assets, u can go gung-ho with your investment assets when ka-boom comes i.e. go 0% FI 100% EQ
- 18% seems like too low allocation to fixed income, I might not have enough dry powder to go firing all cylinders when armageddon comes
wongmunkeong
post Feb 19 2014, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 19 2014, 08:12 PM)
Ok, let me recap, do correct me if I got your lecture points wrong...

- if emergency buffer are sufficient and clearly distinguished from investment assets, u can go gung-ho with your investment assets when ka-boom comes i.e. go 0% FI 100% EQ
Yup

- 18% seems like too low allocation to fixed income, I might not have enough dry powder to go firing all cylinders when armageddon comes
Yup BUT if 1997/1998 or 2008 DOESNT happen for a few decades... then U win big for being in 18% or less throughout those decades. Just pray U rebalance BEFORE kaka happens tongue.gif

*
on the 2nd point - yes, time in market ... else miss uptick ..
U may also want to check the statistics IF bad drops were avoided how much more one will "make"
Then, knowing we CAN'T avoid for sure those bad drops... if one has enough $ aside to take advantage leh? smile.gif

Simple view (may be wrong yar, pls poke):
33.33% Equities exREITs * 40%+/- drop ('ala 2008 KLCI) = 13%+ loss
33.33% REITs * 20%+/- drop ('ala 2008 KLCI) = 6%+ loss
Total loss: 19%+ to 20%+

If one has >20% +1/2 (ie 30%+/-) around & buys into extreme fear AND can hold (here's where Emergency Buffer comes in), imagine in 3 to 5 years time...

FYI - the above is one of the reasons i find it funny when ppl scream blood / cry when market falls 5% to 10%. No feel lar - not worth time & effort to force a rebalance, especially when i'm doing programmatic value averaging every 3 months or 4 (depending on vehicles).

Just a thought notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Feb 19 2014, 08:35 PM
Pink Spider
post Feb 19 2014, 08:37 PM

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Wokie seafood wongmunkeong!

*redo portfolio structure calculation to incorporate Cash Management Fund and cash in trading trust account*
kaiserwulf
post Feb 19 2014, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 19 2014, 12:55 PM)
I think (1.) & (2.) is too long/complicated to list, thus my net worth or ROE growth?
note i didnt buy new home & i dont count cars, 100" TVs, etc. as assets:
2010: 37.05%
2011: 18.91% (index futures exploration soured, profits hit)
2012: 28.35%
2013: 15.20% (complicated pregnancy & birth cost impacted savings for investments since had to rebuild emergency buffer)
*
Your CAGR each year is better than WB!

I will be starting rebalancing portfolio after my upcoming wedding. Your sharing is very insightful. Trying to keep cashflow and reserves right for this since I am paying for marriage solo!
wongmunkeong
post Feb 19 2014, 09:22 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Feb 19 2014, 09:08 PM)
Your CAGR each year is better than WB!

I will be starting rebalancing portfolio after my upcoming wedding. Your sharing is very insightful. Trying to keep cashflow and reserves right for this since I am paying for marriage solo!
*
bwhahaah - pls pls - when WB was small like moi, his CAGR was astronomical compared to mine.

Keep in mind, net worth or ROE is investments' returns + man at work, not just investments' returns smile.gif
Keep cost low, profit higher - thus, i found that balancing both making & saving = turbo.
yes yes, i'm slow to catch-on that way laugh.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Feb 19 2014, 09:37 PM
wongmunkeong
post Feb 20 2014, 07:42 AM

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Just to share:

For those into value investing via ETFs, there is a webpage that shows ETFs' PE ratios. The below link shows for non-leveraged ETFs

http://etfdb.com/compare/lowest-pe-ratio/no-leveraged/

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