Military Thread V10, Merry X'Mas and Happy New Year 
Jan 5 2014, 12:50 PM
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Trouble for the Twin-Engine Giants?
Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:45AM |
By ANDREW CHUTER, AARON MEHTA and PIERRE TRAN
LONDON, WASHINGTON AND PARIS — When Brazil selected Saab’s Gripen fighter last month for the F-X2, it underscored just how little remaining market space remains for the highly capable, but highly priced, dual-engine fighters from Boeing, Eurofighter and Dassault.
For countries looking to upgrade their fighter capabilities, there are seven major competitors from the Western market — the Saab Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, Boeing’s F-15 Strike Eagle and F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Falcon and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
The F-15 and F-16 both have long-term customer bases around the globe, some of whom are starting to look at a next-generation replacement. The Gripen, a single-engine platform, is lighter and more affordable than the competition. The single-engine F-35 is highly advanced but expensive and, for some potential customers, not yet an option from the US government.
That leaves the trio of Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet, all modern dual-engine, highly capable fighters, to battle over a limited market. Brazil’s late-December selection of the Gripen as its fighter replacement was just the latest blow to those competitors.
“With defense budgets tightening, Brazil’s selection of Gripen has re-emphasized there are very few nations out there who really need large, expensive, two-engine jets to meet their requirements,” said Keith Hayward, the head of research at Britain’s Royal Aeronautical Society.
“They’re head to head, they’re in the same size class,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis with the Virginia-based Teal Group. “Twin-engine heavyweights are rare. Market customers are rare. There just aren’t that many of them.
Delays in Asia
Outside of the gulf region, Boeing, Dassault and Eurofighter are targeting Malaysia as the main prize in what is a rapidly shrinking list of priority markets. Saab is also competing in the market.
But the fighter program for the Southeast Asian nation is pretty much on ice for the next couple of years due mainly to economic and political factors.
National elections held in May returned Najib Razak as prime minister. What that means for French hopes to sell the Rafale to the Asian nation is unclear, as Najib was the defense minister who approved an order for four Franco-Spanish Scorpene attack submarines. That deal drew corruption allegations during the election campaign, so it remains to be seen if the Najib government will opt for the French fighter, the Paris-based specialist said.
The likely delay is giving the contenders breathing space to look at a range of purchasing options for the customer, including possibly leasing fighters.
Last year, Saab announced it had put forward leasing proposals with the Gripen, and Boeing has a 10-year deal on the table, according to industry sources who asked not to be named.
West of Malaysia lies Dassault’s major trump card. In early 2012, India selected the Rafale for its Medium, Multi-Role Combat Aircraft competition, under which the growing South Asian power plans to purchase 126 fighters.
Dassault received preferred bidder status over Eurofighter on cost grounds. But despite the selection, the two sides have been trying to nail down an elusive final agreement for much of the past two years.
A revised Typhoon bid for New Delhi is waiting in the wings from the Airbus Defence and Space, BAE and Finmeccanica consortium in the hopes that Indian negotiations with the French fail.
Eurofighter officials said, though, that export opportunities exist for Typhoon outside the Middle East and Southeast Asia and point to Denmark, Canada, Poland, Bulgaria and even South Korea as potential customers.
The Koreans have recently selected the F-35 for their fighter requirement, but Eurofighter and Boeing, whose F-15K model the Korean Air Force already uses, continue to promote the idea of a mixed fleet of jets as the best solution for the South Korean military.
Saab Aims for Growth
While its twin-jet rivals scramble for orders, Saab’s fortunes have been transformed of late by selection of the Gripen E by Switzerland and most recently Brazil.
Both of those deals still need to signed and sealed, but they are underpinned by a recent Swedish government order to upgrade 60 Air Force C versions of the fighter to the latest standards. Saab has already secured work for its Gripen factories until 2026 on the Swedish upgrade.
The 36-aircraft deal sets Brazil up as “arguably Saab’s most important export customer,” Teal Group’s Aboulafia said.
“They came close to being an orphan aircraft, and instead they’ve had a series of planes that have expanded their export market presence,” he said. “They’re building something. They’re not going to be the next F-16, but they’ve been able to keep the line alive and reinvent the family — that’s a pretty good achievement, especially since we’re talking about Sweden here, which isn’t exactly a major military power.”
The 22 Gripens earmarked for the Swiss will take new build work out to 2022 and possibly further once Brazil and other potential customer orders are taken into account.
The initial Brazilian requirement is for 36 jets, but the expectation is that number could grow to around 100 or even more if a Sea Gripen version is developed to meet Brazilian Navy aircraft carrier ambitions.
Ulf Nilsson, head of the Gripen program at Saab, said a Sea Gripen has been mentioned but not in any great detail. As to the Brazilian Air Force purchase, Nilsson said the only number they have seen so far is for 36.
“I don’t have any figure for the total number and how they might want to continue, but obviously there are hopes for a second batch of Gripens,” he said.
Regardless of the final number for Brazil, Gripen’s selection would have knock-on effects in other markets, Nilsson said.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a game changer, but it is an important step for us, and it certainly gives Saab a better opportunity to look at the world market and the potential to grow strongly around our current customers. Brazil opens up the possibility to grow in South and Central America while Asia and Eastern Europe continue to be interesting regions for us,” he said.
The jet has already been sold or leased to Sweden, the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Thailand and the UK’s test pilot school.
Nilsson said Saab saw Malaysia and Indonesia as potential customers for the Gripen.
“Interest in Gripen has never been bigger. It’s been growing in the last year, and obviously the recent selection will help further for the future, particularly as we know other countries have been looking at which fighter Brazil opts for,” Nilsson said.
Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:45AM |
By ANDREW CHUTER, AARON MEHTA and PIERRE TRAN
LONDON, WASHINGTON AND PARIS — When Brazil selected Saab’s Gripen fighter last month for the F-X2, it underscored just how little remaining market space remains for the highly capable, but highly priced, dual-engine fighters from Boeing, Eurofighter and Dassault.
For countries looking to upgrade their fighter capabilities, there are seven major competitors from the Western market — the Saab Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, Boeing’s F-15 Strike Eagle and F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Falcon and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
The F-15 and F-16 both have long-term customer bases around the globe, some of whom are starting to look at a next-generation replacement. The Gripen, a single-engine platform, is lighter and more affordable than the competition. The single-engine F-35 is highly advanced but expensive and, for some potential customers, not yet an option from the US government.
That leaves the trio of Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet, all modern dual-engine, highly capable fighters, to battle over a limited market. Brazil’s late-December selection of the Gripen as its fighter replacement was just the latest blow to those competitors.
“With defense budgets tightening, Brazil’s selection of Gripen has re-emphasized there are very few nations out there who really need large, expensive, two-engine jets to meet their requirements,” said Keith Hayward, the head of research at Britain’s Royal Aeronautical Society.
“They’re head to head, they’re in the same size class,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis with the Virginia-based Teal Group. “Twin-engine heavyweights are rare. Market customers are rare. There just aren’t that many of them.
Delays in Asia
Outside of the gulf region, Boeing, Dassault and Eurofighter are targeting Malaysia as the main prize in what is a rapidly shrinking list of priority markets. Saab is also competing in the market.
But the fighter program for the Southeast Asian nation is pretty much on ice for the next couple of years due mainly to economic and political factors.
National elections held in May returned Najib Razak as prime minister. What that means for French hopes to sell the Rafale to the Asian nation is unclear, as Najib was the defense minister who approved an order for four Franco-Spanish Scorpene attack submarines. That deal drew corruption allegations during the election campaign, so it remains to be seen if the Najib government will opt for the French fighter, the Paris-based specialist said.
The likely delay is giving the contenders breathing space to look at a range of purchasing options for the customer, including possibly leasing fighters.
Last year, Saab announced it had put forward leasing proposals with the Gripen, and Boeing has a 10-year deal on the table, according to industry sources who asked not to be named.
West of Malaysia lies Dassault’s major trump card. In early 2012, India selected the Rafale for its Medium, Multi-Role Combat Aircraft competition, under which the growing South Asian power plans to purchase 126 fighters.
Dassault received preferred bidder status over Eurofighter on cost grounds. But despite the selection, the two sides have been trying to nail down an elusive final agreement for much of the past two years.
A revised Typhoon bid for New Delhi is waiting in the wings from the Airbus Defence and Space, BAE and Finmeccanica consortium in the hopes that Indian negotiations with the French fail.
Eurofighter officials said, though, that export opportunities exist for Typhoon outside the Middle East and Southeast Asia and point to Denmark, Canada, Poland, Bulgaria and even South Korea as potential customers.
The Koreans have recently selected the F-35 for their fighter requirement, but Eurofighter and Boeing, whose F-15K model the Korean Air Force already uses, continue to promote the idea of a mixed fleet of jets as the best solution for the South Korean military.
Saab Aims for Growth
While its twin-jet rivals scramble for orders, Saab’s fortunes have been transformed of late by selection of the Gripen E by Switzerland and most recently Brazil.
Both of those deals still need to signed and sealed, but they are underpinned by a recent Swedish government order to upgrade 60 Air Force C versions of the fighter to the latest standards. Saab has already secured work for its Gripen factories until 2026 on the Swedish upgrade.
The 36-aircraft deal sets Brazil up as “arguably Saab’s most important export customer,” Teal Group’s Aboulafia said.
“They came close to being an orphan aircraft, and instead they’ve had a series of planes that have expanded their export market presence,” he said. “They’re building something. They’re not going to be the next F-16, but they’ve been able to keep the line alive and reinvent the family — that’s a pretty good achievement, especially since we’re talking about Sweden here, which isn’t exactly a major military power.”
The 22 Gripens earmarked for the Swiss will take new build work out to 2022 and possibly further once Brazil and other potential customer orders are taken into account.
The initial Brazilian requirement is for 36 jets, but the expectation is that number could grow to around 100 or even more if a Sea Gripen version is developed to meet Brazilian Navy aircraft carrier ambitions.
Ulf Nilsson, head of the Gripen program at Saab, said a Sea Gripen has been mentioned but not in any great detail. As to the Brazilian Air Force purchase, Nilsson said the only number they have seen so far is for 36.
“I don’t have any figure for the total number and how they might want to continue, but obviously there are hopes for a second batch of Gripens,” he said.
Regardless of the final number for Brazil, Gripen’s selection would have knock-on effects in other markets, Nilsson said.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a game changer, but it is an important step for us, and it certainly gives Saab a better opportunity to look at the world market and the potential to grow strongly around our current customers. Brazil opens up the possibility to grow in South and Central America while Asia and Eastern Europe continue to be interesting regions for us,” he said.
The jet has already been sold or leased to Sweden, the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Thailand and the UK’s test pilot school.
Nilsson said Saab saw Malaysia and Indonesia as potential customers for the Gripen.
“Interest in Gripen has never been bigger. It’s been growing in the last year, and obviously the recent selection will help further for the future, particularly as we know other countries have been looking at which fighter Brazil opts for,” Nilsson said.
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