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 REIT V5, Real Estate Investment Trust

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SKY 1809
post Oct 20 2013, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Oct 20 2013, 10:44 AM)
you read their report...they hv nice gross profit..but their net profit very huge drop. must find up is long turn or short term...compare last year annual report.
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I think it might be better to park money in those reits having some transparency aka full disclose kinda reports ...One I like is Sunreit ..updating investors on and off on thier " The Malls " they acquired and how long it is going to take before yield sets , so u do not have to make so many " calculative risks"

Francis is kinda Apple maps , at times showing a diff direction than what u think what they intend to do , and also at the dispense of ikan bilis..........at times

Not saying it applies to new comers , hard time for seniors to do the " guesstimate " on their directions as well.

Just another 2sen opinion......

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Oct 20 2013, 04:19 PM
SKY 1809
post Oct 20 2013, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Oct 20 2013, 04:18 PM)
that why i buy my wife sunreits....their report nice..to read.
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Ya, Think like a boss of the company , if u do not like the management , sell and dump their shares , and not just any ordinary ikan bilis.......subject to bullies....

Good luck always...
SKY 1809
post Dec 3 2013, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Dec 3 2013, 10:23 AM)
No la.. Coz i am old lady mah... also have paid lots of TUITION FEES over the years...
Insurance savings scheme... well, i am firm believer in "SLOWLY BUT SURELY" .. like EPF
is the foundation of most retirees as money goes in cannot come out.

1/5 of wealth is in INSURANCE COMPANIES... now slowly liquidating out the investment link policies as
it is finally making some money.

however, all the ENDOWMENT policies, I still continue for OLD AGE. I agree total ripped off, as of today, all endowment policies even after 10 years is still negative. So, i have to wait till maturity.
Endowment/Saving policies, investment for lazy me lor.. last time, i dun do research, Seller says GOOD, then buy lor...
Now stuck with it, just keep and continue pumping in money...
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Perhaps it is time for you to look outside " the world of reits " ........could be windows of opportunity out there...

Big reits esp shopping malls, small and medium size businesses could be moving out slowly to smaller malls cos of the high cost factors.......everything naik. but can u pass over the costs to shoppers, not an easy answer ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 3 2013, 10:46 AM
SKY 1809
post Dec 3 2013, 01:33 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 3 2013, 01:00 PM)
I would rate REIT between equity and bond.. it is higher risk than bond but relatively less volatile than equity.
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Well, Asset Allocation Model recognizes risks for classes of assets change over a period of time.

Even Cash carries high risk during the hyper Inflation period, less risky during a recession generally

Even Bonds could be high risk in specific crisis period of the economy like the one just happened in Euro .

Volatility is likely to increase due the " high speed trading " with a touch of a button . Billions of Bonds could be sold within a short time.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 3 2013, 01:40 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 3 2013, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(funnybone @ Dec 3 2013, 03:04 PM)
This is an investment decision that you have to decide on yourself. Reason being:
1) Those that already invested and holding on to their REITs would of course hope it pans out and will say its a good investment
2) Those that have not enter and already dispose off their REITs will say the REITs has reached its maximum value and will fall from here on.

You only need these facts:
1) Increase of assessment rates no doubt will be a concern, but if the building has value, this will not affect much
2) REITs will give you consistent dividends but can be reduced if the market is not favorable. Check the industry type of these REITs and you can read about them in economical books. All economic cycles are similar
3) In the end there are always risk, that's why it is called investment. Market sentiment can be affected by investors' perception, crashes can come if suddenly some scandals broke out etc. These factors can't be predicted only can be mitigated.

You just have to trust on your judgement after looking at all these factors. That's the best you can do and if you're confident, you can proceed to invest. Basically all REITs in MY is more or less the same. Just read their DY history.
Good luck.
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Yes Investments always associate with risks, so an advice to check your own risk profile .

Let say after checking , and u belong to the Moderate risk group, then u invest accordingly.

But again , risks of the asset classes would not stand still throughout your time frame of investments . The only diff is ASB, whereby a guarantee is given for the capital sum invested.....


Meaning to say , REITS could suffer losses and even going bust too, so u still need to monitor and form your own judgments from time to time. So I beg to differ on your statement as such :-

" Market sentiment can be affected by investors' perception, crashes can come if suddenly some scandals broke out etc. These factors can't be predicted only can be mitigated."

"Basically all REITs in MY is more or less the same. "

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 3 2013, 03:59 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 3 2013, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(funnybone @ Dec 3 2013, 04:05 PM)
I do value your input but what I'm trying to show is sometimes no matter how sound your research or monitoring there are bounds to be some factors that are beyond our control. Just for a simple example, if suddenly there is a scandal of the building materials being used for a particular REIT's buildings and there are cracks being formed. What do you think will happen to the REIT's price overnight? Companies can fall overnight from what we seen in real life examples like Enron, Worldcom and even banks that are considered one of the safest haven to invest in.
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" Companies can fall overnight from what we seen in real life examples like Enron, Worldcom and even banks that are considered one of the safest haven to invest in"

Did I say banks are considered the safest of all times ?

I beg to differ on this point . In fact , as I say earlier risk changing every now and then , from time to time . And U can read the latest report from S & P about our banks and what problems they might face later. In fact, risk changed the moment such reports surfaced. Malaysian personal debt problems have been mentioned many many times, not an overnight thing...not just S& P mentioned that.........in fact everywhere . BNM reports etc..

I am saying u still need to monitor their ( banks ) reports from time to time , then to blame others if things fail....

I am quite sure u could spot some fishing things out of Enron reports , rather solely blaming people like the Auditors.

If let say u have doubts like many do about China red chips, then making a decision to avoid them .........

Not all companies fall because of natural disasters , mostly man created ill intentions...........so u have to aware of.

Not impossible to know too if u pay attention to .

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 3 2013, 04:33 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 3 2013, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 3 2013, 04:50 PM)
One thing that difficult to fake is always real cash, and dividend that already given to shareholders.
Profit figure, balance sheet may can twist and turn within the law of accounting,
but hard cash in bank, and real money dividend to the shareholders cannot be twisted.

There is reason, why investors give premium price to those dividend stocks.
Don't need to worry about accounting scandal, if company give all or most of the profit made to the shareholders.
As there is no place to hide if company give those profit to shareholders.
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But investors are happy with mere 3% dividend yield and expecting no capital growth , may as well park the money into FDs .

Let says REITs give 3% yield, u invest because u are happy with the trusted management ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 3 2013, 05:00 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 3 2013, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 3 2013, 05:02 PM)
But have to watch those dividend given is come from the rental collected, aka the reit doesn't need to borrow to give the dividend.
As sometimes, if tenant no pay on time also a concern.
If reit merely 3% yield, I am the first one to dump it.  tongue.gif
At least must 5-6% yield aka, 2-3% more than FD can offer to justify the risk taken.
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Frankly speaking , good idea to park some money into reits , from profits made from share investing too.

5 to 6 % is still good then, not saying reits walls would not collapse easily , but has a purpose.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 3 2013, 05:08 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 4 2013, 12:37 AM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ Dec 3 2013, 11:09 PM)
CMMT in reit world is considered fast n furious lor smile.gif

felix, our bro gark not bad hor...
not in msia also so updated
really pui fook
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Ya , in fact better than the American spy ........ yawn.gif
SKY 1809
post Dec 4 2013, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 11:43 AM)
yesterday someone key in wrong selling price... laugh.gif
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Not always " wrong key in" , could be a forced sell from a bank margin account.
SKY 1809
post Dec 4 2013, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 02:14 PM)
could be also.. but if force sell, then should sold at best price right? Why sell something 10-12 cents lower then buy queue...

but we will never know... tongue.gif
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If u are familiar with banks lelong houses . then u know what I mean.

Extremely cheap at times but no way u can get it without insiders help.......

New system allows u to throw in bulk without a given price. So see who is the lucky winner or buyer.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 4 2013, 03:09 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 4 2013, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 05:43 PM)
No need for BNM interest rate hike. Most REIT use revolving credit, MTN and fixed rate instruments, those are affected by MGS yield. Some even have sukuk or bonds, which is even more affected by MGS yields.

BNM can keep interest rate low, but as yields goes up, REIT's cost of capital will increase as well.  wink.gif
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Most of our funds are imported from US ...... U think it is possible they continue to provide us cheap rates or money ..

And BNM does not have power to print money like Fed Ben, so who controls who hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Dec 4 2013, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ Dec 4 2013, 07:43 PM)
hmmmm stareit is rights meh? i thought PP only?
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No ghosts , this time hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 12:42 PM)
Very true... price NOT EQUAL value...  rclxms.gif
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Yields also not equal hmm.gif

Let say FD yields 3% x 5 yrs = 15 % low

1) REITS yield 5% x5 = 25% High
( but Minus Capital loss = 15% hidden ) net is 10% over 5 years

Many foumers still say REITS are far better than FDs in yields ...........but I say it depends on the timing (how long ago ) u buy ......

BTW FD yield is almost certain and could be better in the future , but can REITS break the 4 % barrier ?

That is why most forumers say reits investors say Capital loss is secondary, is it really true ? or rather self assured.......

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 01:02 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 5 2013, 01:20 PM)
got forumers say reits capital loss is secondary? who?  rclxub.gif
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Well first thing first, it is often said that Capital element like Capital Gain is only secondary when investing in reits.......

In a way, new comers may think there is very low chance of a capital loss aka part of a Capital element ......

Though there seemed to be unspoken words ( or rather hidden ) of Capital Loss Concern here to show, BUT actually many actions taken by the forumers proved that they were relatively unconcerned about Capital Loss in the first place........

One good example is whenever REITS traded at Peak Prices ( few months ago ) and just drop a mere 3 SEN or so, many jumped in joy of going to sapu at 3sen opportunity gain ........in other words , no fear of further Capital Loss at all.

( Well, concern starts to surface after maybe after a 15 to 20% drop from the peaks hmm.gif )

Gark and I sounded out about the impact of Fed Tapering, but mostly forumers regarded as noises....( so no concern , right ? )

What I say is more of the actions taken by the forumers than the actual spoken words .....spoken by them

In my stock analysis , I learn about unspoken words ( hinting ) of CEO in the reports too to judge the future Directions of a company .

My apology if I offend any one of you ...... notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 02:17 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 02:53 PM)
That's why hmmm.... lets look at further out.... tongue.gif

Previous peaks was 5%.. so no.. we are not at the peak, but already near multi year average.. there still could be further downside, but the risk is lower now compared to buying near the bottom during 2011-2012.  rolleyes.gif

[attachmentid=3754556]
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MGS is not the sole threat to reits, other threats like the jumps in BLR and FD rates . A jump in inflation ( sounds familiar to anyone of u, GST , fuel subsidy etc ) . Gvt accounts Deficits ?

well just the possibilities , not saying it will.....

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 05:41 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 04:56 PM)
MGS yields do influence BLR and FD rates, although that is the decision by BNM. If the MGS yields is high, cost of capital will be high, similar to raising interest rate. Inflation rates is mostly passed on to the consumer in REIT via adjustment of rental. In times of low inflation, poor econcomy, you might see the rental rates will be stagnant or stay still.

Govt deficit and trade balance also affects MGS yield as high deficit and negative trade balance will cause MGS yield to be higher. So will 'tapering' as it affects US bond yields which in turn affect MGS yield.

Yes, you are correct that in a sense that looking at MGS is not possible the answer to everything, but but serve as general guideline of where the REIT market is heading.  Like all investment, never put all your eggs in one basket, keep a diversified portfolio as 'hot sectors' rotates. icon_rolleyes.gif
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What I mean about inflation impact is BNM uses it as a tool to adjust our lending rates . And I believe Inflation is quite active from now on........

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 05:01 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 05:04 PM)
Yes for BNM to adjust interest rates they will need to see the impact from MGS yields, monetary policy,  inflation, state of the economy, trade deficits etc etc. Everything is connected to each other and everything influences everything. Thats what makes macro economics so hard to predict.  laugh.gif

For example in Indonesia interest rates have been steadily rise from 5.25% to now 7.5%, the 10 year govt yield is actually leading the way and moving ahead of the interest rate rise. (ie spike before BI adjust the rate to correct the 'imbalance')

Therefore we use govt yield as a 'yardstick' only...  tongue.gif

IF tapering really happens, we would likely to have deflation as assets are being pulled rather than inflation.. which is when QE started.  tongue.gif
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Well our MGS or papers more or less tapered at 6% and below, but BLR could go as high or even higher than 10% ....

For investment purpose, MGS rates are used , for bank lending purposes , BLRs are important......


Honestly, if MGS rates overtake BLR ( u say it happens in Indonesia ) , signs of incoming mini crisis .......... That is why Indo Govt is working very very hard on this problem.......to solve.

Now our Gvt also says it is time to listen to Investors aka Fitch, Moody , S & P.........

That is why I have some reservations on Indo stock market, . partly also due to my lacking in familiarity of it.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 06:04 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 06:14 PM)
Yes, i did before see a graph of asset value vs tapering.. but i can't seem to remember where. The drop will be gradual and not overnight crash. Less demand (from FOC QE money) will slowly affect asset price.

NTA of reits MIGHT reduce, therefore low D/A reits is safer IMHO, higher D/A reits might need to raise capital. This can be seen in SGX reits in 2008-2009.

This is exactly happen to USA in 2008, in the end the house is cheaper than their loan, end up a lot of people abandon paying loan and let the bank take their houses.
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Anyway these are all theories, sometimes the economy moves in ways we cannot anticipate.  wink.gif
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Asset Deflation associate more with Advance Economies than let say with emerging economies , probably due to HIGH GEARING per se. Through Gearing , assets can be produced in masses . And with Easy Credits, making it worse...

The end result, risk goes up after something " wrong " happened to Gearing along the way i.e cashflow problems

My reason for higher yields for Singapore reits cos they are of higher risks ( economy class/ gearing ) , and hence faster Asset deflation problems .

What do you think ? Sounds Logic ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 07:51 PM
SKY 1809
post Dec 5 2013, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 5 2013, 09:27 PM)
But I thought Singapore's debt is only for currency/inflation control? Singapore's gomen has been in profit all these years as its "gearing" is just to generate more money, just like WB takes easy cash from its own insurance assets to leverage more investments and generates more profit than its capital capable of. I do not know much detail of Singapore's economy condition actually, just read some articles only. So you think Singapore's economy class is weak?  hmm.gif
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Singapore Govt is rich, but I refer to Singapore REITs which I think ( might be wrong ) as weak.

What I know of WB bought lot of abandoned properties at the time when market shunned it.

What I say generally Gearing and easy credits are popular tools to build wealth in Advance Economy aka the private sectors , not saying it is bad.

But when economy takes a bad turn, cashflow problems may surface . So asset deflation becomes more severe when everyone is looking for buyers .......if they cannot find more Gearing.....

Certainly some companies are cash rich like Apple, but not generally across the board type.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Dec 5 2013, 09:44 PM

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