QUOTE(TakoC @ Nov 22 2013, 03:50 PM)
Correct me if I'm wrong. But once US reduce their QE, I think all banking stock will be the most severely affected?
I dunno the exact rationale, but here's iFAST/FSM's research view:
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4044HOW CAN INVESTORS BENEFIT FROM THE END OF QE?Financials: Banks and Insurance Companies
One of the possible beneficiaries of the end of QE is the financial sector, as banks and insurance companies tend to benefit from higher interest rates. For banks, higher interest rates usually mean higher net interest margins (NIM), which is the difference between the interest income they receive from their assets and the interest they pay out to their lenders, a key measure of profitability. Banks also tend to lend long (owed long duration obligations) and borrow short (owe short duration obligations), so a steepening yield curve would translate into higher interest received from lending while paying less to borrow, further enhancing its NIM. Plus, given that QE will end on the back of a strengthening economy, banks will also benefit from increased lending growth which should come hand in hand with economic recovery.
Insurance companies can also benefit in this environment; insurance companies tend to have long-term liabilities and manage these liabilities by matching them with similar duration assets. Suppressed long-term yields, thanks to the Fed’s monetary easing, meant that the return received from treasury assets may not have been sufficient to cover insurance companies’ liabilities in the past. With an approaching end to QE, which will lead long term rates higher, these companies can receive higher yields from treasury assets, affording more flexibility to manage their liabilities. In addition, a discount rate is used to value their long-term liabilities (to get the “present value” of liabilities). Rising rates will push up this discount rate, in turn leading to a decline in the value of their liabilities and boosting their balance sheet position.