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TSlcchong76
post Aug 8 2014, 07:09 AM

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QUOTE(feralee @ Aug 7 2014, 08:44 AM)
Now after the BI, any latest research on this stock?

biggrin.gif
*
Waiting for quarterly result. smile.gif
cablesguy
post Aug 8 2014, 10:34 AM

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Bro,

Whats your take on CIMB with the merger and all? Price has gone down considerably , i sold all my shares @ 7.46 shortwhile back now thinking to buy back since price is hovering below RM7

Tx
TSlcchong76
post Aug 12 2014, 10:35 AM

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Recently, I am less active in my blog. Let me share some of non-work related activities that I have done and am currently doing:
1. Spending more time with my family smile.gif

2. Reading Inferno (Robert Langdon)

3. Reading Why Moats Matter: The Morningstar Approach to Stock Investing

4. Finished preparing my presentation material for this workshop: Investment Analysis by Industry – Telecom & Utilities
- This is a workshop conducted by Wealth Creation Code. I am their guest trainer.
- They have some other courses as well, such as 10 Steps of Selecting Winning Stock and Value Growth Investment

5. Finished It’s Earnings That Count: Finding Stocks with Earnings Power for Long-Term Profits
- I will put the ideas in this book into application. This is also related to the next activity.

6. Updating my excel template:
- Remove some obsolete and useless data – This will be transparent to you unless you use Compare Files in Excel 2013 to find the differences.
- Tidy up format and classification in Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement
- To fix some of spotted inconsistencies in the classification and naming. This is highest priority at this moment
- To prepare my excel to put ideas in It’s Earnings That Count: Finding Stocks with Earnings Power for Long-Term Profits into application. This will be a longer term project. I expect to release a beta version in November (or earlier).

7. As I will occasionally do workshop for WCC, I will change few spreadsheets, so that I can easily copy the contents in excel and paste into my presentation file.

8. I have another 8 major improvements in the backlog – I will gradually roll out these improvements in the next 4-6 months.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 16 2014, 02:11 PM

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GTRONIC Analysis:-

Excel – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/pe...is-16-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%:
– FY13-EPS (EPS: 1.051) – Buy below 24.89, sell above 29.87 (MOS: 24%)
– R4Q-EPS (EPS: 0.822) – Buy below 19.48, sell above 23.37 (MOS: 3%)
– FY14-EPS (EPS: 0.875) – Buy below 20.72, sell above 24.87 (MOS: 9%)
– FY15-EPS (EPS: 0.922) – Buy below 21.85, sell above 26.22 (MOS: 14%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22.64): 0.796
– Absolute DCF:
– PETGAS’s DCF is declining in long term due to heavy capex. In theory, DCF is not suitable for PETGAS
– However, based on its decline rate at -2%, PETGAS still worth RM29-34 based on 5-Y projection.
- Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade).
- Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability.
- I will continue to hold PETGAS.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (8 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1706157

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

This post has been edited by lcchong76: Aug 16 2014, 09:34 PM
TSlcchong76
post Aug 16 2014, 09:37 PM

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GTRONIC Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/gt...is-16-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– 3Y DCF: 3.59 – 3.91 (MOS: -38% -> -27%)
– Absolute EY%:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.19): Buy below 3.19, sell above 3.81 (MOS: -30%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.213): Buy below 3.57, sell above 4.27 (MOS: -16%)
– FY14 (EPS: 0.236): Buy below 3.96, sell above 4.73 (MOS: -5%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.279): Buy below 4.69, sell above 5.60 (MOS: 11%)
– GTRONIC is already fully or over valued.
- PAT margin also expanded by +2.6ppts to 19.1% in 2Q14 from 16.5% in 2Q13. This is a result of better economies of scale, productivity improvement and effective cost control programme.
- Shariah status – Globe could be trade at a premium given the ample domestic liquidity and strong participation by domestic institutions.
- GTRONIC has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. This was shown in its latest quarterly results announcement. With a growing cash pile, the company mostly will continue its attractive dividend payouts. I believe that there is still slight room for the stock to appreciate further with expectation on another solid year ahead in FY15, although the stock price has already advanced by +46.7%ytd.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (5 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1702209

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GTRONIC.
TSlcchong76
post Aug 19 2014, 09:43 PM

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How do I maintain the financial data?
TSlcchong76
post Aug 24 2014, 09:23 AM

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AHEALTH Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/ah...is-24-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– Absolute EY%
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.32) – Buy below 3.14, sell above 3.91 (MOS: 3%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.266) – Buy below 2.6, sell above 3.24 (MOS: -17%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Buy below 3.52, sell above 4.39 (MOS: 13.6%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.38) – Buy below 3.72, sell above 4.64 (MOS: 18.3%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.79): 0.311
– DCF
– 5Y DCF: 4.64 – 5.28 (MOS: 18% – 28%)
- In 2013, RM 30 million was spent to acquire and retrofit a 50,000 square feet industrial building to support growing business volumes at Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd in Singapore.
– Thus, FY13 FCF is lower if compare to previous years.
- As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. Being in the industry that sells generic drugs and consumer healthcare products, the general demand for Apex’s products is unlikely to decrease in the period of economic downturn. The group will continue to launch 4 to 8 generic products per year, secure more agency lines, and expand the sales coverage of its wholesale business.
- I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715313

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 24 2014, 10:37 PM

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AIRASIA Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/ai...is-24-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– Absolute EY% Valuation
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.13) – Buy below 1.55, sell above 2.16 (MOS: -10.6%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.283) – Buy below 3.38, sell above 4.7 (MOS: 49.2%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.205) – Buy below 2.45, sell above 3.41 (MOS: 29.9%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.265) – Buy below 3.16, sell above 4.4 (MOS: 45.6%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.39): 0.144
- I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings.
- On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view.
- Besides, further decline in pax yield and lower contributions from the overseas associates are expected for FY14 and FY15.
- AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014)
- Analysts expect 2H14 to be better as the losses of its overseas associates in Indonesia and Philippines bottoming out in 2Q14. AirAsia would benefit from MAS’ restructuring should the latter trim down common routes which AirAsia also operates.
- I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715569

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 12:50 AM

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ARMADA Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/ar...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.147) – Buy below 3.09, sell above 4.25 (MOS: 23.4%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.127) – Buy below 2.67, sell above 3.67 (MOS: 11.3%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.165) – Buy below 3.46, sell above 4.76 (MOS: 31.5%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.197) – Buy below 4.13, sell above 5.69 (MOS: 42.7%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.26): 0.113
- With four FPSO job wins (C7, Kraken, 15/06, Madura) in 18 months, its order backlog is currently MYR31b. Following the Madura FPSO, ARMADA’s orderbook could rise to RM35bn. This includes the LOI the Angolan FPSO project worth RM9.5bn which is pending negotiations of commercial terms and the final award is expected to come by month end.
– This should keep Bumi Armada Bhd busy for the next eight years
– Assuming a net margin of 20%, this would mean a profit of RM800 million per year.
- I am not comfortable with financial positions of ARMADA despite increasing revenue and PATAMI. Besides, its net profit declined YoY for 3 consecutive quarters.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715577

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA.
TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 11:08 AM

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COASTAL Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/co...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Fair value: 5.82 – 6.61 (MOS: 19% – 28%)
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Buy below 2.05, fair value 2.5 (MOS: -104.9%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.365) – Buy below 2.39, fair value 2.92 (MOS: -75.7%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.358) – Buy below 2.35, fair value 2.87 (MOS: -78.9%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.402) – Buy below 2.63, fair value 3.22 (MOS: -59.5%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.13): 0.641
- COASTAL’s business naturally is cyclical, and the shipbuilding division is currently riding the cyclical uptrend. Besides, I think that O&G sector started to slow down. Therefore, I won’t take 5-Y DCF valuation as consideration.
- Looking at the current stock price (5.13), investors/traders assumed 0.641 EPS which much higher than R4Q and FY15 estimation. I believe that the current stock price already factored in the future earnings.
- I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716197

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 08:16 PM

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DELEUM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/de...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.33) – Buy below 2.72, fair value 3.35 (MOS: 34%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.137) – Buy below 1.13, fair value 1.38 (MOS: -59.7%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.142) – Buy below 1.17, fair value 1.44 (MOS: -53.6%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.171) – Buy below 1.41, fair value 1.73 (MOS: -27.5%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.21): 0.218
– 5-Y DCF:
– 2.51 – 2.84 (MOS: 12% – 22%)
- The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14.
- I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715565

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 09:02 PM

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DIALOG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/di...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY% valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide FY14 Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide R4Q Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Buy below 1.64, fair value 2.01 (MOS: 9.5%)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.069) – Buy below 2.01, fair value 2.47 (MOS: 26.3%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.82): 0.051
- Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued. At this price, I have around 10% (FY15) – 26% (FY16) MOS.
- Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014.
- Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending.
- The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14.
– Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG.
- DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.
- I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1717097

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 10:02 PM

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GAB Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/ga...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– 10.02 – 11.55 (MOS: -35% – -17%)
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Buy below 11.38, fair value 14.2 (MOS: 4.9%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.656) – Buy below 11.38, fair value 14.2 (MOS: 4.9%)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.62) – Buy below 10.76, fair value 13.42 (MOS: -0.6%)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.704) – Buy below 12.22, fair value 15.24 (MOS: 11.4%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.5): 0.624
- At the current price, GAB is still fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark.
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014)
– In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14.
- GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending.
- 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low.
- I may accumulate GAB if GAB prices declines below 12.00.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716397

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 11:10 PM

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DAYANG Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/da...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.181) – Buy below 2.95, fair value 3.53 (MOS: -4.7%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.174) – Buy below 2.83, fair value 3.39 (MOS: -9.2%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.259) – Buy below 4.22, fair value 5.05 (MOS: 26.7%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.291) – Buy below 4.75, fair value 5.69 (MOS: 34.9%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.7): 0.19
- DAYANG’S longer-term prospects are strong given that c.77% of its RM4.5b orderbook extends until 2018. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings.
- DAYANG is currently undervalued. I am seriously considering to buy DAYANG, but I already have quite a few O&G counters in my portfolio. Thinking……

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (22 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1717757

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 25 2014, 11:50 PM

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GASMSIA Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/ga...is-25-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Buy below 2.74, fair value 3.43 (MOS: -3.9%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.138) – Buy below 2.82, fair value 3.54 (MOS: -0.7%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.149) – Buy below 3.05, fair value 3.81 (MOS: 6.7%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.164) – Buy below 3.36, fair value 4.2 (MOS: 15.3%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.56): 0.139
- With barely any change in its profit margin spread under the new tariff, FY14 is expected to be another strong year with full-year earnings impact from the 40MMScfd gas supply which started from July 2013 and another new additional 30MMScfd commencing Jan 2014 from the Melaka RGT.
- However, it may not be easy for GASMSIA to sustain profit margin spread going forward given the dynamic of LNG prices. Nonetheless, forward business volume will be supported by the last portion of the 40MMScfd additional gas supply from the Melaka RGT which will be coming on-stream in Jan 2015.
- Moving forward, price revision every six months for subsidised volume could hand some compensation to GMB should LNG price rising.
- Volume growth in 2015 requires further
1) price hikes or
2) deferment of the reduction in regulated gas quota (from 382 to 300mmscfd) for GMB to preserve spreads.
These events require approval from the Energy Commission and/or PETRONAS. There are substantial regulatory risks involved.
- GASMSIA is typical a defensive stock, but current dividend yield is 3.8%. Besides, GASMSIA is just slightly undervalued. Looking at my current portfolio, I am keen to buy GASMSIA, but I don’t want to over-expose to the O&G industry.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715781

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA.

Hitammetalic
post Aug 26 2014, 03:20 PM

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Wow ur good
TSlcchong76
post Aug 26 2014, 08:06 PM

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MYEG Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/my...is-26-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– 3.29 – 3.77 (MOS: 15% – 26%)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.126) – Buy below 2.5, fair value 2.84 (MOS: 1.6%)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Buy below 3.17, fair value 3.6 (MOS: 22.2%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.8): 0.125
- Looks like DCF and EY% valuation derived similar fair values.
- This is a no-brainer business and fully blessed by our beloved Government.
- I will advice to my family member to accumulate more shares of this stock.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (25 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1719837

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of MYEG.

TSlcchong76
post Aug 26 2014, 09:04 PM

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PCHEM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/pc...is-26-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– 8.86 – 10.03 (MOS: 28% – 36%) – The assumption is PCHEM just need to grow its FCF with 4% CAGR in the future five years. I think this is achievable.
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.393) – Buy below 5.79, fair value 7.39 (MOS: 13.5%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.298) – Buy below 4.39, fair value 5.61 (MOS: -14.1%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.43) – Buy below 6.34, fair value 8.09 (MOS: 20.9%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.465) – Buy below 6.85, fair value 8.75 (MOS: 26.9%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.4): 0.34
- I do not expect that earnings in FY14 will match that of FY13 despite the end of major turnaround activities. There will be other smaller planned maintenance exercise which will not severely impact overall group earnings. However, I think that this is a short term problem. In long term, growth drivers of PCHEM are still intact.
- My family member accumulated some shares yesterday at 6.42, and will continue to hold and accumulate.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (11 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1706501

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of PCHEM. She bought this stock below 6.00 last time. From now on, I will keep track this stock for her.
TSlcchong76
post Aug 26 2014, 11:26 PM

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UCHITEC Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/uc...is-26-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.106) – Buy below 1.08, fair value 1.32 (MOS: -8%)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.115) – Buy below 1.18, fair value 1.44 (MOS: 0.9%)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.116) – Buy below 1.18, fair value 1.45 (MOS: 1.6%)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.125) – Buy below 1.28, fair value 1.57 (MOS: 8.6%)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.43): 0.114
– UCHITEC is fully valued.
- UCHITEC has low earning visibility/predictability.
- Although its dividend payout maintains above 80%, its Dividend Yield has been declining from 10% to 7%.
– On one hand, at 1.41, you are still able to enjoy 7% dividend yield
– On the other hand, is it possible for UCHITEC maintain high dividend payout while its net profit and free cash flow has been declining since 2008?
- Though 1H14 earnings rose 8.3% yoy, EBITDA margin declined by 3.5% pts on the back of lower shipment volumes and higher labour and utilities costs. Management is guiding for flat shipment volume in the 2H due to uncertainty in global economy and industry demand.
- I will consider UCHITEC as a turnaround stock, and place it in my Watch List.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (19 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1713941

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UCHITEC.

Suicidal Guy
post Aug 27 2014, 06:49 PM

On my way
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Senior Member
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Joined: Feb 2006
QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Aug 26 2014, 08:06 PM)
MYEG Analysis:-

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/my...is-26-aug-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5-Y DCF:
    – 3.29 – 3.77 (MOS: 15% – 26%)
  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:   
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%)
    – Forward:   
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.126) – Buy below 2.5, fair value 2.84 (MOS: 1.6%)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Buy below 3.17, fair value 3.6 (MOS: 22.2%)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.8): 0.125
 
- Looks like DCF and EY% valuation derived similar fair values.
- This is a no-brainer business and fully blessed by our beloved Government.
- I will advice to my family member to accumulate more shares of this stock.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (25 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1719837

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of MYEG.
*
Hi Chong,

Nice work there. Do you care to explain a little on the bolded part? How did you get the "buy below", "fair value" and "MOS" and what does it all mean?

Thanks in advance.



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