Compare the early morning chart...



with this one just taken...



See the volume and the fall? Isn't it gathering momentum? 

Take out the bigger zoom chart to see where we are at...

Chart I no expert to comment.. that one i leave it to you.

Fundamentals ...

Last few quarters JTiasa is not doing very well, revenue is about the same, profit is almost none in Q3. Margins has fallen to 2.2%. Overall the CURRENT profit picture is not good. But overall profit for FY13 is pretty bad at 2-2.5 cents per share.

But for the future trend in which KKY is arguing on lets see...

Jtiasa's Bussiness is 35% plywood, 37% logs and 12% CPO

Average CPO selling price in FY12 is 3,151, FY 13 is 2,177. This is a big profit drop causing the CPO margins to deteriorate from 43% to 7%.

Average plywood & Log selling price  in FY12 is 1,950&480, FY13 1,775&571. Margins for wood products dropped form 9% to 4%.

Plywood & logging business is sunset. KKY is talking about the palm oil business so let us analyze.

It has a palm oil plant able reserve land of 70.9k ha. Total planted is 62k, matured is 48k. Reserve land for planting is very limited, hence limiting future growth.
Age <4 years is 26.3%
Age 4-7 years is 61.8%
Age >8 years is 11.9%

Growth rate of FFB production is estimated to be raised from 700k in FY 13 to 900k in FY14.

Current yields are very poor at 15 ton/ha and OER of 14.13% is downright pathetic. No wonder Jtiasa cannot make much money with it's palm oil plantation, due to it's poor CPO productivity rate. Good plantation companies should be achieve yield of at least 21-23 tpha and oer of 22-23%.

Jtiasa is expecting it's palm oil to hit yield of 27 tpha when fully matured, but I know the soil in Sarawak is Peat Soil and NO company can achieve more than 18-20 tpha.

Lets say next year their palm oil did go up from 700k FFB to 900k FFB (yield increase from 15tph to 17tph). Assuming thier OER increased slightly to 15% & selling price higher at 2,200.

Estimated total gross sale will be 900,000t x 0.15 x 2200 = 297 million
lets say margin improve now to 10% total PAT will be 29.7 million
Wood business remains challenging so margin same PAT = 32 million which is not significant.

FY14EPS will be about 3-3.5 sen unless palm oil prices improve back to >3k I don't see how the business can justify such high price for stock even with future growth built in.

Psst, there are palm oil plantation with super growth, OER of 22.5%, yield of 24tpha in good volcanic soil selling at PE 12x. Isn't that a better deal?