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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V134, CI step into 1800, are you happy?

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plumberly
post Jul 31 2013, 08:30 AM

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https://research.stlouisfed.org/pageone-economics/

Found this while reading an email this morning. Seen FRED before but I was not so interested then. Mainly US data but some international data if you searched hard enough.

Enjoy!
plumberly
post Aug 1 2013, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Aug 1 2013, 04:02 PM)
biggrin.gif all the while I dun think the Fitch's negative outlook is accurate................
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Typical political crisis response - it's OK, not that bad, we will work on it, etc. etc.

The bad situation did not happen in the last few months but for years now. Did nothing/very little in the past and now the good news is, remedial actions will be in the coming budget! Wah!

Sorry for being so cynical.
plumberly
post Aug 21 2013, 08:42 AM

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FYI

Asia’s debt conundrum reawakens ghosts of 1990s crisis

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/af96c30a-09...l#axzz2cYjnRNIk

Does not matter which side of the coin you believe in, interesting read.

I am more on the cautious side. I believe that the past few years of growth was not on solid foundation but on QE $.

Cheerio.
plumberly
post Aug 21 2013, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 21 2013, 10:58 AM)
I do think it is a bit over-cooked.
Fundamental at current moment is way better than prior 1997.

For me, media seems over-cooked a lot of thing nowadays, either over-optimistic or over-pessimistic.

Before 2008 global crisis, over-optimistic, nothing could happen, subprime is just small matter. But the real result, big shake up on financial.
Those believe continue to bullish, suffer.

When global crisis hit, over-pessimistic, like end of the world,
Those sell at bottom, make bargain hunter rich and gain 100%, 200% afterwards.

When Europe crisis hit, over-pessimistic, no future, Euro breakup etc.
But FTSE, CAC, Dax, all recover well nowadays, and not far from all time high.

So now talk about Asian financial crisis again?

Yes, Asian household debt issue is alarming, and could dampen the economy further, slow down, even a mild recession, but it is not a straight forward answer it must lead to crisis.

Just my cheap 2 cents.
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Noted and thanks for the history 101. Ha.

Dr Neoh (ex MU) in his book (Stock Performance in M'sia & Spore) raised the observation that newspapers in this region were reluctant to raise negative economic news which might stir up panic though the news were true. I guess there was an unwritten rule for publishers from the govt not to stir up panic etc.

I think that unwritten rule is still here now as I heard some newspaper /magazine article writers are requested not to write on negative news of panic potential. They have to keep their license to operate. So, have to read and deduce in between the lines now. Ha.

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 21 2013, 12:33 PM
plumberly
post Aug 22 2013, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Aug 22 2013, 01:44 PM)
Scary chart of the day... looks like we back to 1997...

user posted image
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Is that for Malaysia?
plumberly
post Aug 22 2013, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Aug 22 2013, 01:50 PM)
Indonesia...

Remember.. it ll started with one country.. then everything falls apart in 1998 it was Thailand which got the ball rolling...
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Thanks.

Indonesia is about the 16th largest in GDP term (c.f. Malaysia is at around 31st). So, potential tsunami is there if it falls.

(% of total global GDP)

Attached Image

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 22 2013, 02:02 PM

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