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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V134, CI step into 1800, are you happy?

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cherroy
post Jul 24 2013, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 24 2013, 09:53 AM)
my curiosity until what extend the MGS interest rate will hike to what level,  the reits will continue depress  shocking.gif

I wonder how retail can purchase MGS to joy the ride?  smile.gif
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Bonds are in sliding mode across since the word "tapering" surface.

It is price of bonds go down, that sending yield higher.
You don't "enjoy" your bond, when bond yield rising.

cherroy
post Jul 24 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jul 24 2013, 10:54 AM)
Bond Yield is planned  for a rise.

The trend is upward, just gradually maybe hmm.gif
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I do not see it rise too far.
Just normalise back what it should be.

I do not see how quality bond yield can above 4-5% when there is no central banks around the world is hiking interest, nor concern about inflation.

cherroy
post Jul 25 2013, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Jul 25 2013, 05:09 PM)
noob question. why axreit go from rm1 in 2009 to rm3 plus today, but others like arreit or tower-reit or quill capita can't match the performance?
what's the fundamental strength behind axis? has this fundamental changed lately?
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Very simple.

Axreit DPU is improving over the time, from last time around 13~14 to now around 18 cents.
Somemore, Axreit has shown it has the ability to expand its portfolio that improve DPU and asset base without needing any cent from shareholders nor any dilution effect.

Somemore its portfolio is diversified across, so less rely on single or two tenants, or related party.
cherroy
post Jul 26 2013, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jul 26 2013, 02:36 PM)
IF bursa re introduces short sellings in aggressive manner , then no more excuses  laugh.gif
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Short selling?

Hope people won't be get burn then.

Short selling can be worst than long.

As in long position, the most you loss is how much you pay for the stock.
Aka if you buy Rm1.00, the most you loss is Rm1.00

If you short a stock at Rm1.00, then stock fly to Rm10, you lose Rm9. whistling.gif

Anchovies try to short a stock to make money?
Shark can in return push up the stock price and trap all the anchovies.
Wasn't last time we have second board stock that traded at Rm100? even though fundamental doesn't suggest it worth at that price.
Can shark can hold on the price, and make those short seller life miserable, disregard the fundamental issue of the stock? whistling.gif

Short selling may not something good for anchovies especially low liquidity stock that can be easily influenced by shark one.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 26 2013, 02:45 PM
cherroy
post Jul 26 2013, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Jul 26 2013, 02:55 PM)
that why must always cut loss lo.

but the same can goes the other way too. A good fundamental stock can be short by sharks and force price stay low tongue.gif
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It is a silly move to depress a good fundamental stock by sell short by shark.

Imagine BAT being severe shorted by shark and plunge to Rm10, how nice.... biggrin.gif
Doing charity? laugh.gif


cherroy
post Jul 26 2013, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(ctrl_alt_del @ Jul 26 2013, 04:41 PM)
More like introducing unfair games for retailers.
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How many retailers are winning in derivatives? whistling.gif

I only saw a lot of Ikan bilis bakar last time out when CWs are hot time...

Short selling can be 10x difficult to win as compare long, and its risk is way bigger than long.

Mind can be short-circuited as well when seeing market green green time... joking only. laugh.gif

It is not for weak hearted anchovies.
cherroy
post Jul 26 2013, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Jul 26 2013, 05:04 PM)
but shorting is extremely useful during bear market smile.gif
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I played a lot of short in FKLI before.
It is way more "risky" than long.

You may think it is easy to win by short in bear market, but once market turns time, one can be like "ant on the hot pan".

And we do not have any bear market for the last 3~4 years already, so basically (generally or average) most short in the market ended in loss for the last few years.

On average bear market is shorter than bull.
So basically, it gives idea which side have better chance to win.

Short is good for those knowing what they are doing, what their strategy, and in specific period of time.

We have people find difficulty to win in ordinary buy and hold strategy, and want to profit through short is way harder than former.
cherroy
post Jul 29 2013, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(cckkpr @ Jul 29 2013, 09:51 AM)
If the shares are registered in your name and you have a e-dividend account, you should get it on the same day.
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I think it should be next day, as most use Giro to transfer the e-dividend, so take 1 day to clear.
Correct me if I am wrong.
cherroy
post Jul 29 2013, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(cckkpr @ Jul 29 2013, 02:06 PM)
The dividend monies are parked with the bank earlier together with the list of shareholders. So when the due date comes, a click will suffice and the monies should be there.
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Giro or interbank transfer need 1 day for clearing, won't be instant.
cherroy
post Jul 30 2013, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 30 2013, 08:26 PM)
any way retail can buy bond ?
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If want to buy directly, can approach investment banker.
They do offer such a service.

There are more and more retailer bonds in the market nowadays, even for overseas banks/corporate bond.

Having said that, I do not think bond is a good target at the moment.
When yield is rising across, bond price may have some difficult time eventually, affect existing bond fund performance.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 30 2013, 09:57 PM
cherroy
post Jul 30 2013, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2013, 06:26 PM)
Those bond funds NAV are moving downwards too. So that's just because of the market value? As they not necessarily selling their bond holdings right? As those are low risk funds, they mostly will hold the bond to receive steady interest income right? If this is the case, we may consider to buy at low?  notworthy.gif

http://www.publicmutual.com.my/application...formancenw.aspx
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Bond fund NAV is based on market price/valuation of the bond.

For eg.
A 10 years bond can be issued at Rm1.00, with yield 8% previously.
Now can become Rm1.05, due to low interest rate environment.
So bond fund NAV will be based on Rm1.05.

You hold it until mature, the bond will return to you at Rm1.00, so it doesn't necessary you must gain when hold on maturity.
As current pricing of bond is taking account into the maturity situation already.
cherroy
post Jul 30 2013, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Jul 30 2013, 10:00 PM)
From Business Times today,
"The government sold RM4.5 billion of 2020 securities today at 3.889 per cent, according to data published on the central bank’s website. Demand exceeded the amount on offer by 1.91 times.

The ringgit was little changed at 3.2253 per dollar in Kuala Lumpur, compared with 3.2260 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It earlier fell as much as 0.4 per cent to 3.2379, the weakest level since July 2010. The currency lost two per cent in July and 5.2 per cent this year."

Maybe, the bloodbath could be averted.
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Investors just demand a higher rate, it doesn't mean there is no demand.
Quite norm, considered that worldwide bond yield is rising across.

I do not see any major concern on this.

The major concern is gov need to reduce its budget deficit.
cherroy
post Jul 30 2013, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 30 2013, 10:09 PM)
i thought rate increase...those reits shift to bond for better yield?

1) why you said bond is not a good move ?
2) why you said bond price may have some difficult time ?
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Bond price rise when you have low interest rate, low FD rate, low gov bond yield.

Bond price drop when people expected other asset class may provide better return.
If gov bond now is 3.9%, you think a corporate bond that offer 4%, people want to buy?
surely risk and reward is not correct.
Investors now may demand the corporate bond at 5% to justify the risk they are taking.
So the corporate bond price will drop and become a % yield.

Bond like QE, cheap interest rate, liquidity, which make the bond price rising.

Bond doesn't like tightening, hike in interest rate.
cherroy
post Jul 30 2013, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 30 2013, 10:20 PM)
Hi Cherroy,
is the time keeping cash/fd the best ? while waiting the whole world financial investment gradually correction aka QE tapering?
Cheer,
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If QE tapering does send bond/reit and stock market into a big correction, then the answer is yes.

Waiting at bottom to collect cheap price.

But nobody has the crystal to know it.
The tapering issue may overcooked, as I do not see Fed will raise interest rate for the near term of coming 2-3 years down the road.
Unless the new Fed chairman has other idea. tongue.gif

Same with local front interest rate, I do not see BNM raise rate when export is slowing, GDP number is at modest growth.
Unless RM facing severe headwind issue, which I do not forsee it for near term as well.
cherroy
post Jul 30 2013, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(ctrl_alt_del @ Jul 30 2013, 10:12 PM)
Time to reimpose capital control again?
tongue.gif
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RM is not freely traded at overseas since 1997, so don't need capital control to prevent rampant outflow or speculative activity.
Somemore, BNM foreign currency reserves stood at more than USD100 billion now, situation is not the same with 1998.

There is reason why RMB still reluctantly to be open freely traded at overseas, like USD.
As if when your currency can be opened and freely traded outside your border, you may not have proper control on it.
Hedge fund, speculators that come with billions of funds can easily pounds on your currency and make worst the situation.
cherroy
post Jul 31 2013, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 31 2013, 03:50 PM)
Wont be surprise to see index back to single digit towards the end.

Window dressing day afterall yawn.gif
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Always dressing, how boring,
when is the day of undressing then? biggrin.gif
I am waiting that day.

Joking only.
cherroy
post Jul 31 2013, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2013, 05:01 PM)
their boss said, just empty all reits!! yield? what yield? sell them all!!!  flex.gif
maybe can see 1.20 soon.  drool.gif
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Like BKawan last few week ago, sell at 30% discount? drool.gif
cherroy
post Jul 31 2013, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 31 2013, 05:08 PM)
sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

Bring it on 1.23

Accumulation mode.

Very soon we shall see mall reits back to 5-6% yield, while office reits back to 6-7%.  nod.gif
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Last time out, reit was selling at 7~8%, when I started buying time.
So back to future? tongue.gif


cherroy
post Jul 31 2013, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2013, 05:11 PM)
keep accumulating "undervalued" stocks loh. and they still continue to be undervalued for dunno how long.  cry.gif
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That's why I said again and again.
Cash in the pocket (dividend) is the most realistic one.

One can buy an undervalued stock that give zero dividend, it can forever undervalued, due to whatever reason.
Price no up, no dividend, what investors can do?
Just like can buy a house at Rm100K which is undervalued, but nobody want to rent, nobody want to buy higher than 100k, so everyday just can watch "undervalued". tongue.gif
cherroy
post Aug 1 2013, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ Jul 31 2013, 11:44 PM)
This means the person who bought the house never did enough homework. House location good, price cheap. Looks undervalued, but nobody wants to rent and nobody willing to pay higher to buy from you. Meaning it's a haunted house la. Then he can change strategy, turn the haunted house into a tourist spot. Charge $$ for people to take walk in the house.

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This option is not available for anchovies, unless one can privatise the company, then it is similar to changing the haunted house into tourist spot. thumbup.gif



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