QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 24 2013, 11:31 AM)
I do not see it rise too far.
Just normalise back what it should be.
I do not see how quality bond yield can above 4-5% when there is no central banks around the world is hiking interest, nor concern about inflation.
" Quality Bonds" , not sure which ones u refer to but ( a bit long winded ) :-
(July 23):
Borrowing costs for Malaysia’s Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd. look set to rise for its planned sukuk as a government guarantee and a drought in new issuance fail to shield the company from a global increase in yields.
The state-owned public transport operator plans to sell 1 billion ringgit ($315 million) of debt due in 10 to 15 years in August, which Asian Islamic Investment Management Bhd.
predicts will have to offer a 50 basis-point premium over non-Shariah- compliant sovereign notes. Ten-year government bonds pay 3.82 percent, indicating Prasarana’s new securities may yield more than the 3.77 percent it paid for that maturity in August 2012.
The world’s biggest sukuk market is experiencing its worst year for sales since 2010, with nothing apart from Prasarana’s offering confirmed in the pipeline from local-currency issuers.
Average yields on global corporate Islamic securities increased 27 basis points since the end of May to 4.18 percent amid concern an end to U.S. monetary stimulus will spur outflows from Asia, an index compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc shows.“Even though the corporate debt market is pretty dry, investors won’t chase paper like before,” Fariza Taib, a fixed- income manager overseeing 1 billion ringgit at Kuala Lumpur- based Asian Islamic Investment, said in a July 18 interview. “Still, demand will be there from insurers and pension funds that need to manage assets and liabilities.”
Malaysia’s offerings of Islamic bonds, which pay returns on assets to comply with the Koran’s ban on interest, dropped 65 percent to 19.9 billion ringgit this year, after reaching a record 95.8 billion ringgit in 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Issuance from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, fell 38 percent to $10.8 billion.
Rising Guarantees
Prasarana intends to raise 4 billion ringgit this year from sukuk to extend an overhead light railway in and around Kuala Lumpur, with a further 1 billion ringgit planned in September and 2 billion ringgit toward year-end, Mohd. Zahir Zahur Hussain, the group finance director, said in a July 17 interview.
The risk of the Federal Reserve cutting bond purchases will have a limited impact on Prasarana’s borrowing costs due to the level of local demand and state backing, Mohd. Zahir said.
Prime Minister Najib Razak’s administration is offering government guarantees for debt issuers looking to fund projects under Malaysia’s $444 billion development program to build railways, roads and power plants over the next 10 years.
Such securities totaled 147.8 billion ringgit, or 69.4 percent of gross domestic product, as of March, Chua Hak Bin, an economist in Singapore at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in an interview yesterday. That’s up from 68.5 percent and 64.8 percent at the end of 2012 and 2011, he said.
‘Red Flag’
At current trajectories, quasi-public debt, which includes government-guaranteed notes, will reach 72 percent by year-end and may test 80 percent in about two years, a level typically regarded as a “red flag,” Chua said.
“The rise in government-guaranteed debt isn’t a major concern as the funds raised are used for infrastructure development, which will spur growth in the economy,” Michael Chang, who oversees $1 billion as head of bonds at MCIS Zurich Insurance Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, said in an interview yesterday. “We would probably buy the Prasarana sukuk as we still need to extend duration.”
Prasarana priced 15-year Islamic bonds at 4 percent at the previous sale in 2012. The yield has since climbed 30 basis points, or 0.3 percentage point, to 4.3 percent, the latest prices from Bursa Malaysia show. The rate on similar-maturity 5.248 percent government notes that don’t comply with religious tenets rose 27 basis points this year to 4.06 percent, the highest since March 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Corporate Gains
The Bloomberg-AIBIM Bursa Malaysia Corporate Index, which tracks 57 local-currency Shariah-compliant bonds, climbed 2.2 percent in 2013 to 104.56. Borrowing costs on the nation’s top- rated 15-year non-Islamic notes remained stable in July, rising three basis points to 4.55 percent, a central bank gauge shows.
Global sukuk, including company debt and sovereigns, posted a loss of 0.3 percent this year, according to the HSBC/Nasdaq Dubai US Dollar Sukuk index, while JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index shows bonds in emerging markets lost 5.9 percent.
The premium investors demand to hold Shariah notes sold internationally over the London interbank offered rate narrowed 34 basis points to 183 basis points in July, after widening 38 points in June, the biggest increase since November 2011.
No Hindrance
Corporate sukuk in the Southeast Asian nation benefits from a higher degree of scarcity than for government debt, Nor Hanifah Hashim, fixed income head at Franklin Templeton Investments Malaysia, said in a July 5 e-mail.
Prasarana’s Mohd. Zahir said the company will proceed with its planned bond sale even if the Fed starts tapering its asset purchases. The company, which has total debt of 9.9 billion ringgit outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, sold 2 billion ringgit of sukuk in August 2012, receiving 3.6 billion ringgit in orders.
“In general, we prefer shorter-dated paper because yields have gone up,” Mohd Noor Hj A Rahman, chief executive officer at OSK-UOB Islamic Fund Management Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, said in a July 19 interview. “We would only buy Prasarana sukuk if yields are attractive.”
This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 24 2013, 11:41 AM