Bro, I am in a multinational F&B company. We have access to a lot of food retail information, so I can strongly disagree with your statement about makan out.
The data showed that the Eating Out market is actually shrinking across board (breakfast, lunch & dinner) compared to the past 2 years.

Just to share.

Dessert market very wide categorization, bro. It depends on which subsegments you are looking at.
Some is up, some is down. But overall quite low growth.
Besides the softening EO market, the biggest problem is the low barrier of entry. It is highly competitive.
Easy to start, hard to sustain.

Unfortunately even the big boys are struggling. I m one of them so I know. But dont take my words on it. Read the financial reports of those listed big boys. Observe how many promotions are being offered.

In general all is down except foodcourt.
You can get these info from agencies like euromonitor or mindshare.

Well said.

We have to look at things in perspective.

Cars' prices in Malaysia are expensive in relative to our general incomes when compared to other countries.
That being said, its prices are low as a percentage of our income when compared to properties.
If someone has an annual salary of RM72k, then a Vios is probably worth about a year's salary.
But that same someone might need to fork out five or six times the amount for a property.
Thus, the burden from property loans are five or six times higher than a car's loan.

Secondly, who said cars prices never crash? It 'crashed' the moment the first purchaser signed the forms.
Except for my first Proton, I had never purchased a brand new car before. I would go for subsales, especially for those around one year old European cars.

Yes, you are right when you said it is smarter (from purely financial point of view) to purchase property than car.

However the pyschological part cannot be applied on property. People know Apple's products are more expensive, yet there are die hard fans who is willing to pay due to various reasons. One of the most important reason is the relative price versus income. It might be RM500 more expensive compared to other brands, but that RM500 is minor in contrast to RM72k annual income. So people will just think, "What the heck, it's only RM500 more. Let's do it!"

It's the same for cars versus properties. It is not financially wise to pay RM50k more for a car, but people are more willing to do it because the total mortgage could be only 1-2 years worth of the salary. But to pay RM200-300k more, now that's another story. People will feel more fearful to commit to a loan worth 10 years of their salaries compared to 1-2 years' worth.

Secondly, I always talk about affordability. For someone earning RM72k, it might NOT be financially wise to purchase a RM100k car compared to purchasing a RM300k property. This is something I agree. But wise or not, he still can afford the RM100k car. But he can't afford, even if he wants to, buy a property worth RM700k.

And there is a mismatch between affordability and prices in the property market. How many million ringgit properties are in the market, and what is the percentage of people who can actually 'afford' them?

You can swap 7 RM100k cars for one RM700k properties, but in the first place who would have brought 7 cars at one go?

Ok, you think a person earning RM6k can 'afford' a RM700k property. Let's do a rough calculation:
Gross Salary at RM6000.
After EPF etc, RM5200

Food = RM900
Electricity, water, telephone =RM300
Travelling =RM450 (no car, only travel by taxi and bus)
Household groceries/cleaning etc=RM150
Insurance=RM250
General entertainment/expenses=RM200
Total RM2250
Balance RM2950.

Based on the month mortgage payment of RM2950 above, the amount of loans he could probably get is roughly only around RM620k, which is at already very low prevailing rate of BLR-2.4%.

Remember, for above I didn't factor in:
1) Car installment, which is a necessity in Malaysia, unfortunately.
2) Saving or investment for rainy days
3) Children's education and parent's pocket money
4) Income tax payment and other assessment fees

If die die also must do, I'm sure that person can buy a RM700k property. At the current interest rate, at least. What will happen if the rate adjusts upward? I remember those days when BLR shoot up from 6 point something % to 8-9% within 2 years. I think it was back in 1996-97. For those too young to remember, yes, it is real.

In the above scenario, RM700k loan is NOT 'affordable' to someone earning RM6k in the real sense of the word. To me, something is 'affordable' when you can own it, and still live a fairly comfortable and good quality life.

Maybe many youngsters who came out to work in the past 10 years are so used to easy credit and low interest environment, so they feel everything is 'affordable'.
Perhaps that explains why our debt level is soaring in the past few years.

Actually, I do find Rooney's and AgentDiary's explanations made more sense.
It is also a good gauge on the level of knowledge and experience of these guys, so that we know whose opinions and advices can be followed, or throw into trashcan.

It is important to look at things in its context.

Property in Malaysia boomed in the past few years. No doubt.
Anyone who purchased anything back in 2008-early 2010 made quick and abnormal profits. We acknowledge.
But economy is dynamic. Strategies that worked 2 years ago might, or not, work now or next year.
When someone are pointing out signs of bubble and its probability of bursting, they are merely interpreting the available data. If you dont understand the info, data and graph, just go learn instead of argue. Even if you understand, doesnt mean u have to agree.
More importantly, not all those pointed to signs of bubble are those who can't afford a home or missed the boat.

From personal experience, I made good money in the past few years from property. But I know economy dynamics will change, thus I balanced my investment portfolio by selling some properties early this year. Yea, that put me in DDD camp.

The way I see it, there is a time for wealth protection, and there is a time for wealth accumulation. My view is 2009-2012 was a period for wealth accumulation from property. From 2013-2018, the game is about wealth protection.
It's like u've won RM30k at the roullete table in the first 15 games. So you're thinking.. "Shud I go on, since I'm on a roll here?"
Some will say "Yes" if they want to accumulate more wealth. Some will say "No" to protect their wealth.

For now, I think there is more compelling reasons to be cautious than to continue. Maybe i can make this choice because my path to more wealth is not limited to properties.

Just my 5cents.

I would use another word instead of 'fragile'.
It's 'insecure'.
There are so many 'insecure' forummers lately.

Just yesterday someone posted a question about Scott Garden. I made a statement about at night noises from the pubs can be heard even from Casa Desa abt 500m-1km away.

Wah lau eh.. straight away two fellas (I suspect with vested interest) attack that statement, calling it an exaggeration. These fellas probably had no education, since it is common knowledge sounds travel further and louder at night.
Luckily, two other forummers who lived in Casa Desa supported my statement.

Of coz, then those fellas turned and twisted to talk about how satisfied their local and oversea tenants are, etc, etc. You can check out the thread yourself.

My point is you can see the defensiveness of these fellas when someone said something negative or perceived negative about properties.
If the market is so good and strong, if the properties is doing so well and prosperous, why they even feel the need to defend it? Why so insecure about their own investment, right?

Less surrounding noises, cooler air and stratosphere is closer to earth.

Wah.. kochin kor, I am not pyhsicist leh, just an accountant.

From what I know, sound travels through cold, dense air more slowly than through warmer, less dense air. So, during daytime, it's warmer near the ground and colder above; sound bends up and away from the ground (and us). But at night, it's colder near the ground and warmer above so the sound waves bend down. When u standing at point A at daytime u might not hear it, but at night time u can hear it at the same spot. This is further aided by less noises from other sources.
Therefore, it appears that particular sound is travelling further and louder, if you put it in layman's term.

AppreciativeMan,
Yea, u will claim it is an exaggeration. But never state the reason why u claim so. How to have credibility in your words?
Especially after two other forummers who stayed in Casa Desa confirmed you can hear the pubs noises from Casa Desa, you still in denial.

Dude, go Google Map lar.. it's stated the distance between Tesco Scott Garden to Casa Desa is 750m. That's close enough for 1km.

Exaggeration is when it's 100m or 200m but stated as 1km.
Approximation is when it's 0.7 or 0.8km but stated as 1km.

When people said that house is worth a million ringgit, they could mean RM980k, or RM1.05mil. Not need to be exactly RM1,000,000, right?
You expect every forummers to be super precise in everything?

Very interesting character. LOL.

Well it is obvious u miss the gist of the statement. At casa desa u can hear the noises from scott garden. So that is no exaggeration.
Yea I might not be 100% accurate about the distance. Any reasonable intelligent people wud know it is an estimation because how do u give a 100% accurate distance? From which specific unit at what block to which pub? This is what I meant not reading in context.
Thirdly, do they even teach rounding up in school anymore? Lol.
Ok I wasted enuf time on this guy.
Thank u for your opinion.

Ladies and gentlemen, today I present to you a prime example of 'taking things out of context'.

My original statement was pertaining to Scott Garden was:
"And damn noisy at night due to the pubs. My frens staying in Casa Desa 1km away also can hear the music, especially on weekend nights."
You can see the post in Scott Garden thread.

Of course, any reasonable reader would understand the gist of the statement is the noise can be heard from Casa Desa. Is it exactly at 1km? Or that 1km is just an approximation to add some context to the gist of the sentence? Why I used 'music' when it could have been noises from the crowd? Another exaggeration, perhaps? Or when I said weekend nights, do I meant Saturday or Sunday? Does that means nothing can be heard on Wednesday?


Now, it is been further shortened and intepretated as '1km away also can hear the music'.
It's like saying 'the doctor who treated my father is a woman.'
And been intepreted as '.. my father is a woman'.

If some people dont have good comprehensive skills, they will be confused by the semantics.

I said I won't spent more time on this.. but it's damn funny lar.

Hahahaa.. ok i really stop this time.

This post has been edited by cockee: Aug 15 2013, 02:23 PM

This is a good point.

Sometimes it is easy to blame the purchasers for being poor, for not working hard enough or being choosy.
At times, that can be true.

Not everyone wanna stay nearer to CBDs because of glamour, but due to transportation issues.
It is easy to ask people to stay in rundown flats, without thinking about the security and environment for family especially those with young children.

Bro Rooney.. u should NOT splurge on IWCs.. splurge on Rolex instead.
My friend who is into quite expert about timepieces did some research and found that of all second-tier priced timepieces, Rolex maintains or increases their value best in long term.

But i do understand youngster like u like IWCs more than Lolex. Uncles like me.. on the other hand (no pun intended) prefer classic brands.. LOL.

Dude I bought proton bcos at that time bcos I could only afford proton. But that doesnt mean back then I dun think proton is overpriced for its quality. It s becos lack of choices due to circumstances.
Acknowledging it is overpriced doesnt mean I m negative and did nothing about it. Now I drive a Beemer and I still think Beemer in Malaysia is overpriced. In fact I think all cars in malaysia is overpriced. So is that negativity or simply acknowledging a financial fact?
If u r investing u need to acknowledge not every investment bring positive return. Some are good and some are toxic assets.
Just because ppl have contrary view to u doesnt make us negative.

This post has been edited by cockee: Aug 16 2013, 07:47 PM

Taiko, you are real big timer here.
Yes, property will rise in long run. That's hard to dispute.
Anyone who had bought in the past 5 years sure making profit. Those accumulated for the past 10 years made bigger profit. And those accumulated since 25 years ago sure now making tycoon-level profit.

For taikor like you, you definitely can hold and get reasonable average yield due to the low average base price, since you bought some long long ago.

Many of us labelled DDD is looking at the CURRENT pricing level, and expressing doubt on its yield and appreciation, and the holding power of the market.

If I may use gold as an analogy; even tho the price dropped like 20% since its peak last year, those who invested in gold since 15 years ago will still be profiting. But those who entered the market in 2012 will be sweating.

Same like you boss; whether the price up or down 15% also wont impact you so much, because your base prices are much lower. But not everyone in the market is like you, especially in the past 5 years when property became THE investment vehicle of choice. Imagine if a young ciku earning RM6k now owing bank a RM1.2 mil because he want to flip it at RM2 mil in 3 years time. Isn't that different from your situation?