So peace to all and please stop all unnecessary personal attacks.
All opinions are welcomed but would appreciate if thoughts written here have been carefully crafted in advance.
Cheers!
V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...
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Jul 18 2013, 09:02 AM, updated 13y ago
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
Ramadhan month, the holy month.
So peace to all and please stop all unnecessary personal attacks. All opinions are welcomed but would appreciate if thoughts written here have been carefully crafted in advance. Cheers! |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:15 AM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
wondering what will be the outcome of Fennel's take up for tmrw.
900 units. "affordable" pricing. don't think the preview will end up all 900 units gone for their VIP gua??? |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:16 AM
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All Stars
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warming here....
u will come at a point some up up up camp saying this again in V12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Anytime is a good time to buy - Properties prices will always go up in the long-term - The market cannot collapse because of demand from foreigners - Mickey mouse units are the trend of the future ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- read more here why they said that? http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-...-151909308.html This post has been edited by tikaram: Jul 18 2013, 09:17 AM |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:40 AM
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Property prices already reached it's climax and peak as at today.
Projects sale are still going strong even though some projects are repeatedly overprice to up to 30%. Easy entry and free S&P is one of the key to many to believe the price will keep going up. Only those Semi D and Bungalow are harder to move. Condo n linked houses are overall still doing well. Subsales demand had been soften up, not entirely due to prices but also affordability, harder to get loan than before and the asking price trend are following Singapore where asking is always higher than market value. Demand is still good for highrise below RM 600 psf and standard linked houses below RM 800k. Again, semi D n bungalow moving are relatively slow. Anyhow, the demand is still there. |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:44 AM
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Look at Penang Island property new launch and sub sales, they are dying! Wonder why agents there always targeting oversea market. If u all noticed, hardly any penang props were promoting or interacting here. Other website as well. What are the magic agents there using?
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Jul 18 2013, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 18 2013, 09:16 AM) warming here.... u will come at a point some up up up camp saying this again in V12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Anytime is a good time to buy - Properties prices will always go up in the long-term - The market cannot collapse because of demand from foreigners - Mickey mouse units are the trend of the future ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- read more here why they said that? http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-...-151909308.html |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:54 AM
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BTW, what is NON UUU AND DDD CAMPER? cant google search this
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Jul 18 2013, 09:58 AM
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We are BACK! haha. Anyway Rooney back to the topic. Why would I claim it's rubbish regarding the corruption topic. It's because you said that we should stop buying because of corruption? So should we stop eating because of corruption? Should we stop going to shopping malls because of corruption? Should we stop buying cars because of corruption?
I'm just being rational and what you have just pointed out did not make any sense to me at all. btw I'm always chilling la.. No project currently.. my whole department sedang goyang kaki atm... have to chill and relax and waste some time debating with you folks. |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:02 AM
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Sounds like got gang gang debuting here, not sure which is BN and which is PKR
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Jul 18 2013, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 18 2013, 09:16 AM) warming here.... taikor, ur link seem like not working wor u will come at a point some up up up camp saying this again in V12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Anytime is a good time to buy - Properties prices will always go up in the long-term - The market cannot collapse because of demand from foreigners - Mickey mouse units are the trend of the future ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- read more here why they said that? http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-...-151909308.html |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:04 AM
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Jul 18 2013, 10:05 AM
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im new here so apa itu 'For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...' ?
This post has been edited by SpeechLess11: Jul 18 2013, 10:05 AM |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:08 AM
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Jul 18 2013, 10:13 AM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
does this forum provide the TS to block individuals from posting in the topic for not compliance to the TS' rules?
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Jul 18 2013, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 18 2013, 10:06 AM) okay thanks!a wise man once say 'if 90% people approve a proposal, that proposal can throw into rubbish'. duno can apply to property or not. - proposal = flat -> condo -> landed |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:31 AM
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suddenly all gone? Where, im aiming the ECO BUSINESS PARK. Should be the best BBB in town
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Jul 18 2013, 10:34 AM
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I agree we buy properties and invest, but I don't agree we buy properties and speculate. This is the biggest difference, prices now have reached its peak, watch out.
I m offloading to buy more subsale, yeah! |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 18 2013, 09:58 AM) We are BACK! haha. Anyway Rooney back to the topic. Why would I claim it's rubbish regarding the corruption topic. It's because you said that we should stop buying because of corruption? So should we stop eating because of corruption? Should we stop going to shopping malls because of corruption? Should we stop buying cars because of corruption? Wahlaueh... really dunno when to give up huh?I'm just being rational and what you have just pointed out did not make any sense to me at all. btw I'm always chilling la.. No project currently.. my whole department sedang goyang kaki atm... have to chill and relax and waste some time debating with you folks. Actually when I was reading your statements (above) some one here came to mind... Amayayaya came to mind... he/she mentioned that he/she didn't buy a car because the prices too high... (due to corruption)... same principal applies... Again... the world doesn't revolve around you and different people have different opinions... Amayayaya don't like to buy house but buy car... others buy car don't buy house... no right or wrong... just what they do they think its right so they do it... that's all... And your questions above are actually contradicting what you mentioned earlier... corruption is because people feed it... if you know you have to pay some bribes to eat at one shopping mall you'd still go? or do you find an alternative?... Hope you realise that you're own statements are going round in circles... Chill, relax and let it go man... oh oh... here it comes... |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:46 AM
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Jul 18 2013, 10:47 AM
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So then where is the logic that only UUU feeds corruption? |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(Selectt @ Jul 18 2013, 10:41 AM) lol this i gotta agree. the first person, i hope to ban is ronney. seems like his every post has intention to crash the market. Unfortunately my posts does not drive the market... why so scared? Even If I don't say it doesn't mean it won't happen (or will happen)... relax la, make sure you're not financially overstretched then you won't be so uptight with negative news...This is something I have yet to accept... my house bought in 2004 for approximately 900K+ is now asking for 2.5 - 3M+... that's more than 300% increase over 10 years... Wow!!! Please don't waste time asking me where I stay, cos its very P&C .... |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:53 AM
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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 10:42 AM) Wahlaueh... really dunno when to give up huh? Give up? That's not my tag line. Contradicting? My message is straight forward man... I'm just telling you if you are so holy and mighty might as well don't makan out right? Nearly all eatry shops have to pay them in order for them not to come kacau every week. Amaya is right.. the corruption for AP... local cars... dealers... are hell lot worst COMPARED to property. I just don't understand why you can't think straight and want to associate this to property?Actually when I was reading your statements (above) some one here came to mind... Amayayaya came to mind... he/she mentioned that he/she didn't buy a car because the prices too high... (due to corruption)... same principal applies... Again... the world doesn't revolve around you and different people have different opinions... Amayayaya don't like to buy house but buy car... others buy car don't buy house... no right or wrong... just what they do they think its right so they do it... that's all... And your questions above are actually contradicting what you mentioned earlier... corruption is because people feed it... if you know you have to pay some bribes to eat at one shopping mall you'd still go? or do you find an alternative?... Hope you realise that you're own statements are going round in circles... Chill, relax and let it go man... oh oh... here it comes... This post has been edited by kidmad: Jul 18 2013, 10:55 AM |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:53 AM
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Jul 18 2013, 11:00 AM
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QUOTE(iwin_wai @ Jul 18 2013, 10:46 AM) To me it's always the potential.. I only purchase subsale unit.. and also ensure that they are free from Banggala.. African.. or puak puak yg buat kacau. The only drawback is everytime you purchase a subsale you need to prepare at least 15% of the total purchase price. |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 18 2013, 10:53 AM) Give up? That's not my tag line. Contradicting? My message is straight forward man... I'm just telling you if you are so holy and mighty might as well don't makan out right? Nearly all eatry shops have to pay them in order for them not to come kacau every week. Amaya is right.. the corruption for AP... local cars... dealers... are hell lot worst COMPARED to property. I just don't understand why you can't think straight and what to associate this to property? wow... very persistent... why because like I said in my previous posts (twice), don't expect everyone to accept your opinions and don't always think that you're right... you must listen to others sometimes and reflect on your statements and actions... Everyone has the right to their opinion... and its good to keep a broad mind... oh and to relax la... don't be so uptight. Btw, you're assuming that corruption for cars is worst than property... Sigh... okay la... you win, you win... corruption is fed by people (as stated by you), there is corruption in property (as stated by you) but corruption in cars is worse (as stated by you) but please do not stop buying properties (as stated by you)... I.e. its not okay to feed corruption through buying cars, but its okay to feed corruption through buying house... okay. I accept.. please buy... and to avoid being banned.... I hereby announce... boleh-land market will not crash... will only up up up... |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 11:03 AM) wow... very persistent... lol are you assuming things or am I the one? My family owns a restaurant and if you do own one. You would know... Please talk about your own portfolio la.. Don't talk about the property your parents bought a decade ago. I'm not accepting others opinion? lol I'm quite sometime being in the forum and have been gaining loads of knowledge from people from different sub forum.. why because like I said in my previous posts (twice), don't expect everyone to accept your opinions and don't always think that you're right... you must listen to others sometimes and reflect on your statements and actions... Everyone has the right to their opinion... and its good to keep a broad mind... oh and to relax la... don't be so uptight. Btw, you're assuming that corruption for cars is worst than property... Sigh... okay la... you win, you win... corruption is fed by people (as stated by you), there is corruption in property (as stated by you) but corruption in cars is worse (as stated by you) but please do not stop buying properties (as stated by you)... I.e. its not okay to feed corruption through buying cars, but its okay to feed corruption through buying house... okay. I accept.. please buy... and to avoid being banned.... I hereby announce... boleh-land market will not crash... will only up up up... One thing I do know your the only one being sarcastic in every post and just can't accept the fact the property value had gone up all these years where you longer be able to afford one on your own. Once again. I don't assume things. I only talk about what had happened to me and what I do know which is a fact. I don't spread rumors and slender like you. After the GOLD guy GURU working for a large finance corporation here comes a football fanatic trying to educate others to stop buying. |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 11:03 AM) wow... very persistent... Bro, I believe you were the one that blame ONLY the UUU people feeds corruption. Of course la the UUU will take exception on that. And the point is everybody is feeding corruption. Nothing to do with property. why because like I said in my previous posts (twice), don't expect everyone to accept your opinions and don't always think that you're right... you must listen to others sometimes and reflect on your statements and actions... Everyone has the right to their opinion... and its good to keep a broad mind... oh and to relax la... don't be so uptight. Btw, you're assuming that corruption for cars is worst than property... Sigh... okay la... you win, you win... corruption is fed by people (as stated by you), there is corruption in property (as stated by you) but corruption in cars is worse (as stated by you) but please do not stop buying properties (as stated by you)... I.e. its not okay to feed corruption through buying cars, but its okay to feed corruption through buying house... okay. I accept.. please buy... and to avoid being banned.... I hereby announce... boleh-land market will not crash... will only up up up... And yeah corruption on car purchase is worst than property. Because it so embedded in the lives of Malaysian that everybody accepts it and no one wants to do anything about it and if anybody does, people think they are weird. That is how bad corruption on car purchase. |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:13 AM
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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 11:03 AM) I accept.. please buy... and to avoid being banned.... I hereby announce... boleh-land market will not crash... will only up up up... |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:17 AM
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QUOTE(greenstuff @ Jul 18 2013, 11:13 AM) Bro, you are not alone. I agree with most of your statements. Some people is disrespectful enough to say banning someone because he has different view from others, at the end of the day we are just speaking out the truth and aware of current situation. But doesn't mean you will stop buying and wait for crash, those that think buying 850psf at ulu place and hope to sell 1k psf are the one need to worry. Dont worry, we need not to show ppl how much we have hehehe Why would you say so? I've been here since 2007 I never did see anyone talking about banning anyone also. And we are also still discussing and debating why it won't go down in terms of paper value. When you say disrespectful.. In what sense the UP camps are disrespectful? Do you mean replying in a sarcastic manner is a good way? |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 11:03 AM) I accept.. please buy... and to avoid being banned.... I hereby announce... boleh-land market will not crash... will only up up up... switching camp? so decided to move to chelsea liao? kekeke. PS: it's not you who's being nonsensical. it's those who keeps labeling others either DDD or UUU which i despise. and it doesn't help a bit in terms of making up their own definition of these groups too. |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:20 AM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
gentlemen and ...
with all due respect to your enthusiasm of the topic debated, a caution of your constant labeling of others please. without the mod, i can still suspend this thread on my own. let's hope that i need not resort to that please. cheers! |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:30 AM
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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 18 2013, 11:17 AM) Why would you say so? I've been here since 2007 I never did see anyone talking about banning anyone also. And we are also still discussing and debating why it won't go down in terms of paper value. When you say disrespectful.. In what sense the UP camps are disrespectful? Do you mean replying in a sarcastic manner is a good way? Not you la bro, you have your right points ad I respect you too. What was I referring to is this one QUOTE(Selectt) lol this i gotta agree. the first person, i hope to ban is ronney. seems like his every post has intention to crash the market. |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:58 AM
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1,423 posts Joined: Aug 2012 From: Kuala Lumpur |
No one can stop property price keep increasing for next 5-10 years, due to all mega rail project by government!
1) MRT Line 1 2) MRT lines 2 3) MRT lines 3/ Circle Line 4) HSR/ High Speed Rail ( KL- singapore rail) Plus with coming increase of GST tax... No one can deny the price stagnant/ goin downward! Accept the fact and only the community will accept you!! Good luck guys!! |
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Jul 18 2013, 11:59 AM
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I concur to drop the DIBS, the mother of speculation! Hate it
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Jul 18 2013, 12:19 PM
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Oh my, this thread also serious business. I just kena flamed for nothing by CLOUDTREE buyes just because im Non CT buyers and cares to share. What happen to forum nowaday. Mod should send regards on reminders.
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Jul 18 2013, 12:38 PM
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1,830 posts Joined: Aug 2010 From: Kuala Lumpur |
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Guess BNM don't want the price to come down yet? Would anyone shed some light on whether BNM is doing a good job managing property market? |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(Helius @ Jul 18 2013, 12:58 PM) No one can stop property price keep increasing for next 5-10 years, due to all mega rail project by government! no one can stop property price keep going south.1) MRT Line 1 2) MRT lines 2 3) MRT lines 3/ Circle Line 4) HSR/ High Speed Rail ( KL- singapore rail) Plus with coming increase of GST tax... No one can deny the price stagnant/ goin downward! Accept the fact and only the community will accept you!! Good luck guys!! 1) Median salary KV folk per month still low meaning only can afford < 220k house 2) Mrt lines going to make more land available at ulu place and people can now option to use mrt but no need to stay in pantai / bukit jalil. 3) HSR also allow people live in seremban but work in kl. why buy the overprice 600k smallbox condo...jam jam jam whereby u can live in dsl 250k house in seremban & no jam jam jam by using HSR. 4) many people already in high debts. Got price no value |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:05 PM
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Jul 18 2013, 01:16 PM
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QUOTE(property101 @ Jul 18 2013, 01:38 PM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Guess BNM don't want the price to come down yet? Would anyone shed some light on whether BNM is doing a good job managing property market? for every 0.25% increment, it might increase the loan repayment for hundred...it's not a small amount to most of us... i personally never think that increase the OPR is an intelligent move to reduce the house price. if wanna stop house price speculation, gov can impose high rpgt or even no house trading for house <5 years... This post has been edited by tnchsg: Jul 18 2013, 01:19 PM |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(Chris Chew @ Jul 18 2013, 09:40 AM) Property prices already reached it's climax and peak as at today. agreed. the problem nowadays is dat everyone jump in to buy property regardless the price. All uncle, aunties almost everybody just die hard wanna become landlord. I dun see this as a gd sign. When everyone think dat the property can make money & jump in means the market is in the other way round. I dun mean the price will drop just the market will be slow down. I dun mean investor must stop buying but i think there is need to adjust strategies accordingly.Projects sale are still going strong even though some projects are repeatedly overprice to up to 30%. Easy entry and free S&P is one of the key to many to believe the price will keep going up. Only those Semi D and Bungalow are harder to move. Condo n linked houses are overall still doing well. Subsales demand had been soften up, not entirely due to prices but also affordability, harder to get loan than before and the asking price trend are following Singapore where asking is always higher than market value. Demand is still good for highrise below RM 600 psf and standard linked houses below RM 800k. Again, semi D n bungalow moving are relatively slow. Anyhow, the demand is still there. |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 18 2013, 11:08 AM) lol are you assuming things or am I the one? My family owns a restaurant and if you do own one. You would know... Please talk about your own portfolio la.. Don't talk about the property your parents bought a decade ago. I'm not accepting others opinion? lol I'm quite sometime being in the forum and have been gaining loads of knowledge from people from different sub forum.. Yup my own property One thing I do know your the only one being sarcastic in every post and just can't accept the fact the property value had gone up all these years where you longer be able to afford one on your own. Once again. I don't assume things. I only talk about what had happened to me and what I do know which is a fact. I don't spread rumors and slender like you. After the GOLD guy GURU working for a large finance corporation here comes a football fanatic trying to educate others to stop buying. Apologies if you're sensitive and feel that I'm sarcastic. You're right... have bought in 2004 at that price, I don't think this level of current asking prices is sustainable. Truth, I've just paid off the last installment for my house and this has freed me up slightly (some other commercial commitments)... Now waiting for some good buys for investment... but my opinion is... prices will drop... my opinion. No intention, just sharing opinion... if you don't like it please ignore it, I'm not forcing you to read it... Don't be so up tight |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 18 2013, 11:11 AM) Bro, I believe you were the one that blame ONLY the UUU people feeds corruption. Of course la the UUU will take exception on that. And the point is everybody is feeding corruption. Nothing to do with property. Bro, I didn't blame anyone... it was a question... please refer back... thanks...And yeah corruption on car purchase is worst than property. Because it so embedded in the lives of Malaysian that everybody accepts it and no one wants to do anything about it and if anybody does, people think they are weird. That is how bad corruption on car purchase. And you're wrong... I know people who don't accept it... my relatives that are millionaires prefer to buy second-hand car rather than reconditioned imports or brand new because they know that the extra they are paying is going to corrupted people... Of course they are not like you, take public transport, but they buy cheaper second hand cars... And they also have same perception of property... all the extra going where? to all the middle men flip flip flip... so now their funds are in stocks and cash (FD)... They seldom eat out and even when they do they take advantage of the discounts because they've got like hotel/ club memberships, CC from every bank, vouchers, etc, etc... You'll be surprised how much they save from discounts... Just my circle of network la... not implying the whole boleh-land or world... |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 01:47 PM) Yup my own property No, no, no! I like your opinions, I, too, been long waited for the price to drop! Apologies if you're sensitive and feel that I'm sarcastic. You're right... have bought in 2004 at that price, I don't think this level of current asking prices is sustainable. Truth, I've just paid off the last installment for my house and this has freed me up slightly (some other commercial commitments)... Now waiting for some good buys for investment... but my opinion is... prices will drop... my opinion. No intention, just sharing opinion... if you don't like it please ignore it, I'm not forcing you to read it... Don't be so up tight I, the first time property buyer, unable to get a landed at a reasonable price; I can get subsales, but it would end up the same cost I buy a new unit because of the high renovation cost nowadays. |
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Jul 18 2013, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(phengeon @ Jul 18 2013, 02:47 PM) agreed. the problem nowadays is dat everyone jump in to buy property regardless the price. All uncle, aunties almost everybody just die hard wanna become landlord. I dun see this as a gd sign. When everyone think dat the property can make money & jump in means the market is in the other way round. I dun mean the price will drop just the market will be slow down. I dun mean investor must stop buying but i think there is need to adjust strategies accordingly. agree...even the market collapse, it will still depend on the area, property type and the price... do you think the 100 or 200psf property (low cost or medium cost) market will collapse if the bubble burst?? NO, i don't think they will, as there are so many poor and lower medium class in this country who need this type of property... i strongly believe that these 800 or 1000psf high rise condo will bear the brunt of market collapse...there are really overpriced...even at the superb premium area, i still have the same thought...do you agree with me? in klang valley, for hot hot area, 300 - 400psf should be reasonable for landed property. this is just my 2 cents of thought |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:05 PM
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376 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
QUOTE(tnchsg @ Jul 18 2013, 01:57 PM) agree... Ya. High end will always kena first. Look at monkiara, klcc. Wats the definition for high end? To me a level dat most of the ppl can't afford is high end dy.. I personally think those < 600k wont be affected even if market slow down (or may be benefited?)even the market collapse, it will still depend on the area, property type and the price... do you think the 100 or 200psf property (low cost or medium cost) market will collapse if the bubble burst?? NO, i don't think they will, as there are so many poor and lower medium class in this country who need this type of property... i strongly believe that these 800 or 1000psf high rise condo will bear the brunt of market collapse...there are really overpriced...even at the superb premium area, i still have the same thought...do you agree with me? in klang valley, for hot hot area, 300 - 400psf should be reasonable for landed property. this is just my 2 cents of thought |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:05 PM
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633 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 02:56 PM) No, no, no! I like your opinions, I, too, been long waited for the price to drop! i would say you might pay up more renovation for the new property..I, the first time property buyer, unable to get a landed at a reasonable price; I can get subsales, but it would end up the same cost I buy a new unit because of the high renovation cost nowadays. i bought my 2nd house from a seller at 275k (he bought at 200k) after 3 years. but the owner had put on the grille, plaster ceiling, kitchen cabinet, replace the wooden floor of the whole 2nd floor and staircase, aircond, down light installed... sometimes you will find it cheaper for 2nd house as you can save from renovation. expensive of purchasing the 2nd hand house is the lawyer fee, stamp duty, loan moving cost.... |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:07 PM
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2,294 posts Joined: Sep 2011 |
sorry if this sounds stupid, i am noob in finance/economy. but just a wild imagination...
What if China raise interest rate (since there is credit crunch)? Will large amount of hot money/QE flow into China? other countries fight for QE fund by raising interest rate ... which lead to bubble pops? |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:07 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 01:56 PM) No, no, no! I like your opinions, I, too, been long waited for the price to drop! common perception.I, the first time property buyer, unable to get a landed at a reasonable price; I can get subsales, but it would end up the same cost I buy a new unit because of the high renovation cost nowadays. 1. buying under con is cheaper than sub sale: Fact or Myth? 2. reno cost for undercon is cheaper than sub-sale: Fact or Myth? i.e. from your quote, what is wrong with having same cost of sub sale but renovated to your whims and fancies? |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:10 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(kochin @ Jul 18 2013, 01:53 PM) lmfao. Agreed, everybody cool down... this forum is meant for all opinions, true, false, good and bad and we should all read and accept what we want... I you don't accept is, just state your own alternative opinion and relax... don't be so uptight... (I feel that the responses to opinions about down is more heated than responses to up... my feeling la)two gentlemen fighting over you. guess that's a first for you? kekeke. if it's two ladies i can understand lah. can selectt and greenstuff boss please chill it. this is the exact same reason why the thread is going to the drains. rise to the occasion and F&F. move forward guys. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:11 PM
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247 posts Joined: Jun 2010 |
debbie, i agree to buy subsale too. by the time ur house VP, its totally bare! even a drill on the wall cost u more than repairing it. and inflation is scary, so all renovation materials will be pricer. most importantly, u saved up 3/4 years living cost by renting from others and enjoy paper gain of the said property
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Jul 18 2013, 02:12 PM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(tnchsg @ Jul 18 2013, 02:05 PM) i would say you might pay up more renovation for the new property.. Case by case. So far what I have seen, the subsales that I like will normally take more renovation cost.i bought my 2nd house from a seller at 275k (he bought at 200k) after 3 years. but the owner had put on the grille, plaster ceiling, kitchen cabinet, replace the wooden floor of the whole 2nd floor and staircase, aircond, down light installed... sometimes you will find it cheaper for 2nd house as you can save from renovation. expensive of purchasing the 2nd hand house is the lawyer fee, stamp duty, loan moving cost.... QUOTE(kochin @ Jul 18 2013, 02:07 PM) common perception. Uncle, you hve so many properties, your financial is stronger than mine. I would love to have the unit renovated to my desire but I will also need to take into considerations for furniture. Remember, I'm a first time buyer, I have nothing, right.1. buying under con is cheaper than sub sale: Fact or Myth? 2. reno cost for undercon is cheaper than sub-sale: Fact or Myth? i.e. from your quote, what is wrong with having same cost of sub sale but renovated to your whims and fancies? |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:14 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 01:56 PM) No, no, no! I like your opinions, I, too, been long waited for the price to drop! I, the first time property buyer, unable to get a landed at a reasonable price; I can get subsales, but it would end up the same cost I buy a new unit because of the high renovation cost nowadays. True that after renovation costs its the same BUT... I feel that sub-sale locations better (i.e. nearer than new developments) like damn ulu locations which people try hard to boost by say oh... LRT la, school la, this la that la... ulu is ulu... my opinion la. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:14 PM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(greenstuff @ Jul 18 2013, 02:11 PM) debbie, i agree to buy subsale too. by the time ur house VP, its totally bare! even a drill on the wall cost u more than repairing it. and inflation is scary, so all renovation materials will be pricer. most importantly, u saved up 3/4 years living cost by renting from others and enjoy paper gain of the said property Just to clarify, the subsale I meant is a unit that has been long staying by an owner or tenant; not subsale that you are referring to (someone bought it before it started built and sold to another buyer after the unit completely built/VP). |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:19 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(kochin @ Jul 18 2013, 02:07 PM) common perception. I know one thing la, the threads you open very fast and furious... maybe you should consider opening a F&B business... you got luck for high traffic... ... ....1. buying under con is cheaper than sub sale: Fact or Myth? 2. reno cost for undercon is cheaper than sub-sale: Fact or Myth? i.e. from your quote, what is wrong with having same cost of sub sale but renovated to your whims and fancies? or is it because I'm your patron??? Agree to your renovate to whims and fancies... when I read those ads with ... 500K renovation cost I pui hou soi... they expect me to pay for their taste in renovation...??? hehe |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:19 PM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 02:14 PM) True that after renovation costs its the same BUT... I feel that sub-sale locations better (i.e. nearer than new developments) like damn ulu locations which people try hard to boost by say oh... LRT la, school la, this la that la... ulu is ulu... my opinion la. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:23 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 01:55 PM) It was a question implying the up campers are the one to be blamed.Hey it is like me asking here.."What do the down campers want? The economic tank and the whole of Malaysia jobless. I hope not" Chage the "down campers" to "up campers" and change the "economic" word to "corruption". That will be your sentence. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:25 PM
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633 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 03:12 PM) Case by case. So far what I have seen, the subsales that I like will normally take more renovation cost. of course you have to find the subsale house which the renovation is suit to your preference. you can't buy a bali style house and want to make over to modern style, it will definitely cost you a lot....Uncle, you hve so many properties, your financial is stronger than mine. I would love to have the unit renovated to my desire but I will also need to take into considerations for furniture. Remember, I'm a first time buyer, I have nothing, right. one of the good of buying a subsale house is you can see the present and future development, its future potential rather than listen to what the sales guy talk of the future of the new property. most important you can have a good sleep since the first day of paying the downpayment. if you buy a new property from an unknown, small property company, you will feel the pain... |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:30 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(tnchsg @ Jul 18 2013, 02:25 PM) of course you have to find the subsale house which the renovation is suit to your preference. you can't buy a bali style house and want to make over to modern style, it will definitely cost you a lot.... these are the real benefits of buying subsale. wysiwyg. one of the good of buying a subsale house is you can see the present and future development, its future potential rather than listen to what the sales guy talk of the future of the new property. most important you can have a good sleep since the first day of paying the downpayment. if you buy a new property from an unknown, small property company, you will feel the pain... u can even walk away if you dun like the neighbors! u can't get all that when buying new. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:31 PM
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1,407 posts Joined: May 2010 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 02:19 PM) I'm considering for properties in Rawang, Kajang and Cyberjaya now... The properties in these areas are much cheaper and reasonable. you should have alot of choices if you have the budget since all this are consider new develepmentIf for own staying, abit ulu is ok but if for investment, better stick within town area for the place you mentioned. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:32 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 18 2013, 02:23 PM) It was a question implying the up campers are the one to be blamed. Its how you interpret it my friend... you can always think "no"... like when I read your question I think... "No... that's not what I want." Its your position and emotions that cause you to jump straight away. Relax and open/ broaden your mind... don't be so up tight... I'm sure even in worst case scenarios many have contingency plans IF (big IF, so that people not so uptight) market crashes... not that I'm saying it will, and not that I'm saying it won't... just saying in the event... IF...Hey it is like me asking here.."What do the down campers want? The economic tank and the whole of Malaysia jobless. I hope not" Chage the "down campers" to "up campers" and change the "economic" word to "corruption". That will be your sentence. Relax la |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:32 PM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:35 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 02:19 PM) I'm considering for properties in Rawang, Kajang and Cyberjaya now... The properties in these areas are much cheaper and reasonable. Sorry, whats budget again?(See! I'm trying to help down camper find a property to buy, all of you should be thankful!) This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jul 18 2013, 02:36 PM |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:37 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 02:32 PM) Its how you interpret it my friend... you can always think "no"... like when I read your question I think... "No... that's not what I want." Its your position and emotions that cause you to jump straight away. Relax and open/ broaden your mind... don't be so up tight... I'm sure even in worst case scenarios many have contingency plans IF (big IF, so that people not so uptight) market crashes... not that I'm saying it will, and not that I'm saying it won't... just saying in the event... IF... Very cunning of you to imply that I was the one emotional. But between you and me, we know what you implied.Relax la |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:38 PM
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1,407 posts Joined: May 2010 |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:41 PM
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633 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 03:19 PM) I'm considering for properties in Rawang, Kajang and Cyberjaya now... The properties in these areas are much cheaper and reasonable. cyberjaya?? i don't know how cheap or reasonable the price is as 2 days ago, my friend just bought a studio unit from cyberjaya at 500k (-15% discount, hence no downpayment and dibs)...the psf price is far higher than rm500psf...i don't think >rm500psf is consider reasonable and cheap lo... but you might able to find other cheaper property in cyberjaya la... This post has been edited by tnchsg: Jul 18 2013, 02:43 PM |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:42 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 18 2013, 02:37 PM) Very cunning of you to imply that I was the one emotional. But between you and me, we know what you implied. Its very simple... end of the day, everyone can say what they want... people say oh prices going up, no more land, fresh grads will start buying, char kuay teow cooks earn 10K, foreigners come snatching up properties, LRT, MRT... god knows what other Ts OR... Europe crisis, debt levels up, BNM increase interest rates, bla bla bla... you just have to be smart enough to filter out the BS... that's all... no one forcing you believe and no one forcing you to think or accept... only the weak follow the strong, in mind, emotion, financial and even physical... |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:43 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
Aiseh Rooney, sui liaw la.. all of a sudden from all gloomy to someone who own a million dollar property and finish paying it already adding on with few commercial lots? Haha your the man... so all these while trying to stop others from buying. that's all just a plot to make you richer?
well to be honest i do not know what to say but the twist and turn from you turn out to be amusing. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:45 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 18 2013, 02:19 PM) I'm considering for properties in Rawang, Kajang and Cyberjaya now... The properties in these areas are much cheaper and reasonable. You looking at landed debbie? Cyberjaya doesn't have much choice. CyberHeight.. Cyberia Townvilla perhaps? or if budget allow D'Melor.. but the maintenance is approx RM600 monthly. But i love that place.Avoid domain, cresent ad cyberia condo's... You would not like it for own stay.. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:47 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(tnchsg @ Jul 18 2013, 02:41 PM) cyberjaya?? i don't know how cheap or reasonable the price is as 2 days ago, my friend just bought a studio unit from cyberjaya at 500k (-15% discount, hence no downpayment and dibs)...the psf price is far higher than rm500psf... I wonder who will be staying.. at RM500 psft it's pretty expensive for cyberjaya.. Houses here are really abuden. Adding on no international school.. My colleagues are more willing to stay in SK, Ampang, or anywhere near MidValley than to stay in cyberjaya. It's easier for their kids to commute to those international school.i don't think >rm500psf is consider reasonable and cheap lo... but you might able to find other cheaper property in cyberjaya la... Unless rent out to single expat la.. Still have quite a number of them here. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:50 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 18 2013, 02:43 PM) Aiseh Rooney, sui liaw la.. all of a sudden from all gloomy to someone who own a million dollar property and finish paying it already adding on with few commercial lots? Haha your the man... so all these while trying to stop others from buying. that's all just a plot to make you richer? It's okay Maddie... like I said... no one forcing you to believe anything... you'll be very surprised how many gloomy millionaires (heard the saying the richer they are the stingier they get??? That's like wanting the best quality for the cheapest price) are waiting to pounce when the market crashes (not that I'm saying it will or it won't) ... I'm also worried about the competition... well to be honest i do not know what to say but the twist and turn from you turn out to be amusing. Relax okay, else fat cat gonna shut it down. |
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Jul 18 2013, 02:52 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 18 2013, 02:50 PM) It's okay Maddie... like I said... no one forcing you to believe anything... you'll be very surprised how many gloomy millionaires (heard the saying the richer they are the stingier they get??? That's like wanting the best quality for the cheapest price) are waiting to pounce when the market crashes (not that I'm saying it will or it won't) ... I'm also worried about the competition... Haha im always relax knowing that your part of us welcome to the family lo. LOL Relax okay, else fat cat gonna shut it down. Fat Cat is just joking perhaps regarding to the shutting down thingy. |
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Jul 18 2013, 03:07 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
our neighbor already issued official warning (2 months ago) to its citizen, as usual Malaysia is 'not affected' and remain bullish ...in pseudo
Singapore Indonesia Always hard to resist laughing when seeing people simulating rate high budget by 25 or 50 basis point. Totally defeat the purpose! They should take into account 200 basis point or higher. Keep laughing if you think it's an outrageous scenario. |
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Jul 18 2013, 03:09 PM
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324 posts Joined: Apr 2013 |
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Jul 18 2013, 03:11 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 18 2013, 03:07 PM) our neighbor already issued official warning (2 months ago) to its citizen, as usual Malaysia is 'not affected' and remain bullish ...in pseudo Its already taken into account because in the end I need a house to live in. Singapore Indonesia Always hard to resist laughing when seeing people simulating rate high budget by 25 or 50 basis point. Totally defeat the purpose! They should take into account 200 basis point or higher. Keep laughing if you think it's an outrageous scenario. So if the interest rate increase will you start buying? |
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Jul 18 2013, 03:28 PM
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376 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
Can any sifu here share ur views on the strategies at the current market? Those who say market uuu do u think dat we can buy now n flip in next few yrs? Those ddd would u prefer rental play?
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Jul 18 2013, 04:03 PM
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213 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
walau, so many posts in just a short while, bravo.
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Jul 18 2013, 04:10 PM
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1,322 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(nilambanting @ Jul 18 2013, 09:44 AM) Look at Penang Island property new launch and sub sales, they are dying! Wonder why agents there always targeting oversea market. If u all noticed, hardly any penang props were promoting or interacting here. Other website as well. What are the magic agents there using? are you from Penang? If yes then please share your information about Penang new launch are dying.If you are not, I suggest you to understand better |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:18 PM
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2,294 posts Joined: Sep 2011 |
(吉隆坡17日訊)國內經濟受內需照拂料續保持強勁,通貨膨脹增長溫和不足為患,經濟分析師相信,國家銀行年底前將升息25個基點或0.25%,從3%調高至3.25%。
Interest rate might up .25% to 3.25%, according to analyst. sos: http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/440811 |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:20 PM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
hi guys want to ask regarding loan offer
how you guys proceeed? submit to all bank then wait for the bank approval? if all bank approve decide which one to go for signing the offer right? how long does the bank offer letter valid? anyone can advice? how bout appeal case pity those banker need process the same thing |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:25 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(katijar @ Jul 18 2013, 05:18 PM) (吉隆坡17日訊)國內經濟受內需照拂料續保持強勁,通貨膨脹增長溫和不足為患,經濟分析師相信,國家銀行年底前將升息25個基點或0.25%,從3%調高至3.25%。 bnm just said no change a wk or two ago.Interest rate might up .25% to 3.25%, according to analyst. sos: http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/440811 wil be surprised if u turn now. they actuality shud incr. see how bad the rm is now? chicken shortage, 24 new lessen to import, people can't get good price chicken to eat for raya. while bbb to profit from low rates! |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:35 PM
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247 posts Joined: Jun 2010 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 18 2013, 05:25 PM) bnm just said no change a wk or two ago. Msia gomen like Msia culture, also like to change rule like flipping roti Canai wil be surprised if u turn now. they actuality shud incr. see how bad the rm is now? chicken shortage, 24 new lessen to import, people can't get good price chicken to eat for raya. while bbb to profit from low rates! Since so many bbb, I d like to see what the market response when more and more rules are implemented |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:40 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
Hi guys...
MIDDLE CAMP reporting... M camp is also means Make Money Camp regardless of Up or Down. |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:41 PM
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Senior Member
4,440 posts Joined: Jan 2010 From: Kuala Lumpur |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:56 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:56 PM
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Senior Member
2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:57 PM
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2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 18 2013, 05:41 PM) face the reality, don't wait for price drop |
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Jul 18 2013, 05:58 PM
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376 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
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Jul 18 2013, 06:01 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
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Jul 18 2013, 06:03 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Jul 18 2013, 05:56 PM) huh?? since when I comment on taman kajang perdana... I only comment that its below market buy...aisey... sei ling chat... you recover from your wounds but haven't learn your lesson zit? |
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Jul 18 2013, 06:28 PM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
China still ok.
Attached File(s)
_2013.7.18__CN_June_Home_Prices.pdf ( 290.3k )
Number of downloads: 52 |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:35 PM
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3,936 posts Joined: Dec 2010 |
Very explanation.
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 18 2013, 05:41 PM) |
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Jul 18 2013, 09:53 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
Well dont need the Star to tell you guys that.
It has been my and probably a few others points as well all along. |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:18 PM
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Senior Member
5,488 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
欠管理费锁水禁停车 3大疑问待研判
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « This post has been edited by kh8668: Jul 18 2013, 10:19 PM |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:24 PM
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376 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:28 PM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 18 2013, 10:18 PM) Boss, I can onli describe those dare to buy or dare to stay but oso dare to hutang maintenance fee as farkers. 3rd world mentality is damaging the strata props by demanding top class service w/o paying. Wtf. |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:44 PM
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24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 18 2013, 10:18 PM) interesting iconic case indeed. i tot a new law with more teeth is already in place?if the "no need to pay" side wins, u bet nobody will pay anymore, esp investors. bye-bye gng, fng, all become ff... |
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Jul 18 2013, 10:45 PM
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1,266 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 18 2013, 09:16 AM) warming here.... Bro stop been sarcastic la. Read thru V11. Seem that you are still buying and the most bullish fr ddd camp. Be more constructive la in your post.u will come at a point some up up up camp saying this again in V12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Anytime is a good time to buy - Properties prices will always go up in the long-term - The market cannot collapse because of demand from foreigners - Mickey mouse units are the trend of the future ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- read more here why they said that? http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-...-151909308.html |
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Jul 19 2013, 12:18 AM
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276 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 18 2013, 10:44 PM) interesting iconic case indeed. i tot a new law with more teeth is already in place? This is when no gangster management which treat residents as thei prisonner and can do whatever they want, demand high management fee n spent money on their cronies project.happens everywhere.if the "no need to pay" side wins, u bet nobody will pay anymore, esp investors. bye-bye gng, fng, all become ff... |
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Jul 19 2013, 12:46 AM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...prices-to-drop/
“The same thing applies to other cities like Singapore and Hong Kong – your first property will usually be a 700 sq ft condo and later as your income and family expands, you can go for bigger units in better locations,” says the writer of How You Can Get Rich from the Property and Stock Markets: What the Rich Invest In and How You Can Do the Same! and How You Can Become a Multi Millionaire Real Estate Investor." I can't understand why people keep on telling the bolded part. My understanding is very simple - Eg. Year 2000 - income RM2500 - 700sf condo RM500K Year 2020 - income RM4500 - 700sf condo RM1mil The speed of income rise can't align with property price. |
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Jul 19 2013, 06:16 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 19 2013, 12:46 AM) http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...prices-to-drop/ Dont just look at income la debbie. Population. Demand and supply. Factor all that. Inflation. Macam macam adee..“The same thing applies to other cities like Singapore and Hong Kong – your first property will usually be a 700 sq ft condo and later as your income and family expands, you can go for bigger units in better locations,” says the writer of How You Can Get Rich from the Property and Stock Markets: What the Rich Invest In and How You Can Do the Same! and How You Can Become a Multi Millionaire Real Estate Investor." I can't understand why people keep on telling the bolded part. My understanding is very simple - Eg. Year 2000 - income RM2500 - 700sf condo RM500K Year 2020 - income RM4500 - 700sf condo RM1mil The speed of income rise can't align with property price. Year 2000. What's the population in kl? Year 2020. What's the expected populatin in kl? And you still haven answered r u willing to buy a rundown flat of 600 sq ft for 100k in d middle of kl that is still in d market right now? That means u dont want too. Also means you and actually everyone is picky. So how can good property in good location is going to be cheap? Ask yourself that. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 19 2013, 06:18 AM |
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Jul 19 2013, 08:56 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 19 2013, 12:46 AM) http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...prices-to-drop/ Somethings can listen and follow, others is a whole bunch of BS (in my opinion, which does not drive the market and or represent anyone else, unless of course you agree... those that don't agree... no one is forcing you to read you willing read it yourself... “The same thing applies to other cities like Singapore and Hong Kong – your first property will usually be a 700 sq ft condo and later as your income and family expands, you can go for bigger units in better locations,” says the writer of How You Can Get Rich from the Property and Stock Markets: What the Rich Invest In and How You Can Do the Same! and How You Can Become a Multi Millionaire Real Estate Investor." I can't understand why people keep on telling the bolded part. My understanding is very simple - Eg. Year 2000 - income RM2500 - 700sf condo RM500K Year 2020 - income RM4500 - 700sf condo RM1mil The speed of income rise can't align with property price. And I totally don't agree to the response to your post.. saying that if you're looking for cheap everyone is also looking for cheap... I believe that this is a intentional misrepresentation of your statements... I believe that you're talking about price being more affordable. This disclaimer stuff is very tiring.. |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:11 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
I am sorry..a 600 sq ft for 100k is not affordable?
Haven't I been talking about affordability all along? And don't try to be cunning again and say i am emotional or wutever. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 19 2013, 09:12 AM |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:22 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
Sigh...
You mentioned cheap in your post instead of affordable... and I think Debs was meaning affordable... 600sq ft in the middle of town for 100K, if you solely base your decision on price then its affordable... see this is a typical sales guy trick... that's the selling point... so you have to read the smaller writing and in between the lines la and in this case, to also consider the surroundings, condition of the place, remaining tenure, refurbishment work/ cost required, etc, etc... Once you put all that in then you rethink whether its affordable or not... Please try harder next time... don't even have to be cunning la... you're a walk in the park This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jul 19 2013, 09:23 AM |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:24 AM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 19 2013, 07:16 AM) Dont just look at income la debbie. Population. Demand and supply. Factor all that. Inflation. Macam macam adee.. Year 2000. What's the population in detroit? Year 2000. What's the population in kl? Year 2020. What's the expected populatin in kl? And you still haven answered r u willing to buy a rundown flat of 600 sq ft for 100k in d middle of kl that is still in d market right now? That means u dont want too. Also means you and actually everyone is picky. So how can good property in good location is going to be cheap? Ask yourself that. Year 2020. What's the expected populatin in detroit? http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyin...iles-bankruptcy |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:27 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 19 2013, 09:22 AM) Sigh... See trying to be cunning again and say it is my fault. U telling me u don't get what I meant and it is my fault is it?You mentioned cheap in your post instead of affordable... and I think Debs was meaning affordable... 600sq ft in the middle of town for 100K, if you solely base your decision on price then its affordable... see this is a typical sales guy trick... that's the selling point... so you have to read the smaller writing and in between the lines la and in this case, to also consider the surroundings, condition of the place, remaining tenure, refurbishment work/ cost required, etc, etc... Once you put all that in then you rethink whether its affordable or not... Please try harder next time... don't even have to be cunning la... you're a walk in the park I use the word CHEAP that means it is MORE than AFFORDABLE. Understand? |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:31 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 19 2013, 09:24 AM) Year 2000. What's the population in detroit? KL is not detroit and detroit is not KL. Year 2020. What's the expected populatin in detroit? http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyin...iles-bankruptcy Detroit is a city that specialized in building cars, KL is not. KL wants to be a financial hub and doing a good job by attracting foreign banks. |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:34 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 19 2013, 09:24 AM) Year 2000. What's the population in detroit? Year 2020. What's the expected populatin in detroit? http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyin...iles-bankruptcy Came across that this morning but lazy to post it here, you know la, some here very 7 ungrateful... But looking at that news... hmmm.... Speechless, I don't recall reading news this terrible in the previous recessions... Well there's only one thing we can do in boleh-land.... buy buy buy!!! ROFLMAO!!! |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:44 AM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 19 2013, 09:22 AM) Sigh... You read my mind!You mentioned cheap in your post instead of affordable... and I think Debs was meaning affordable... 600sq ft in the middle of town for 100K, if you solely base your decision on price then its affordable... see this is a typical sales guy trick... that's the selling point... so you have to read the smaller writing and in between the lines la and in this case, to also consider the surroundings, condition of the place, remaining tenure, refurbishment work/ cost required, etc, etc... Once you put all that in then you rethink whether its affordable or not... Please try harder next time... don't even have to be cunning la... you're a walk in the park Where can I press LIKE button??? |
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Jul 19 2013, 10:19 AM
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551 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 19 2013, 09:24 AM) Year 2000. What's the population in detroit? KL is the heart of Malaysia. If KL dies, you die I die everybody die. Very different situation to compare to Detroit.Year 2020. What's the expected populatin in detroit? http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyin...iles-bankruptcy |
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Jul 19 2013, 10:56 AM
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527 posts Joined: Dec 2007 |
Some how i felt that this thread is becoming more and more like an arena for pointless arguments and personal attacks~~
This post has been edited by terryble: Jul 19 2013, 10:56 AM |
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Jul 19 2013, 12:02 PM
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72 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
If you can earn from 500 K RM++ per year. Your dream city to live will be KL or Singapore? I do think you don't what to move out from here, KL. So many people from many country saying good about Singapore but they don't want to stay there too. That is a big matter I think for far future of Singapore.
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Jul 19 2013, 12:06 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Maximo1 @ Jul 19 2013, 12:02 PM) If you can earn from 500 K RM++ per year. Your dream city to live will be KL or Singapore? I do think you don't what to move out from here, KL. So many people from many country saying good about Singapore but they don't want to stay there too. That is a big matter I think for far future of Singapore. Yeah not many open space. That is what I said, if a Malaysian works in Sgpore.. at least if not all of them, the majority would have bought property somewhere in Malaysia. If it is not KL, then Johor. |
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Jul 19 2013, 01:31 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
wtf?!
v12 oledi 12 pages in about 24 hours? btw, fennel berapa sales take up liao? |
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Jul 19 2013, 02:28 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 19 2013, 02:02 PM) Nicely interepreted and straight forward. However, boss reading too much is not sthg u can b proud of. A lot of big bosses dun hav tis cert or tat cert. But sadly and truely they are those hiring many with tis cert and tat cert. So I reckon u r tat kinda big boss status. Guys, what's your take for Mirage by the Lake? Considering i'm planning to work in CBJ for quite sometime was thinking whether would it be good.. It's 1000sft @ rm9xxk though.. and the package is offering cash rebate as high as 10%... |
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Jul 19 2013, 02:40 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
BBB Mode Just Like The Minions
![]() (source: from fennel thread) This post has been edited by accetera: Jul 19 2013, 02:41 PM |
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Jul 19 2013, 02:48 PM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
I just wonder should I opt for aution units instead. The price is much cheaper...
This post has been edited by debbieyss: Jul 19 2013, 02:52 PM |
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Jul 19 2013, 03:14 PM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
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Jul 19 2013, 03:22 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 19 2013, 02:48 PM) The price you see is only the reserve price before bidding.Auction property is "as is". Riskier than normal listed properties where you can inspect. Some are tenanted which dont want to vacate the house. See your luck whether you can get good transaction or not |
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Jul 19 2013, 03:25 PM
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1,801 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 19 2013, 02:48 PM) For a first time house buyer, I think it's not advisable to touch auction prop.....Moreover, auction prop are not necessary cheap..... And if its real cheap, likelihood it will also means this is not a 'good prop' too...... What's more u don't get to see the prop..... This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Jul 19 2013, 03:27 PM |
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Jul 19 2013, 03:26 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 19 2013, 03:58 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
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Jul 19 2013, 05:22 PM
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203 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 19 2013, 02:28 PM) Guys, what's your take for Mirage by the Lake? Considering i'm planning to work in CBJ for quite sometime was thinking whether would it be good.. It's 1000sft @ rm9xxk though.. and the package is offering cash rebate as high as 10%... |
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Jul 19 2013, 09:30 PM
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Senior Member
2,694 posts Joined: Feb 2007 From: KL |
Latest news today:
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/commentary/...ehold-debt.html Brief summary: - household debt is at it's all time high in 2012, 83% of GDP - income didn't increase - in Asia, it has been noted that Korea, China and Malaysia are the most leveraged economies in terms of magnitude and growth and hence most vulnerable. Be prepared for the bubble to burst guys. |
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Jul 19 2013, 10:01 PM
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24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(hazairi @ Jul 19 2013, 09:30 PM) Latest news today: few will bother with this until it all breaks down.http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/commentary/...ehold-debt.html Brief summary: - household debt is at it's all time high in 2012, 83% of GDP - income didn't increase - in Asia, it has been noted that Korea, China and Malaysia are the most leveraged economies in terms of magnitude and growth and hence most vulnerable. Be prepared for the bubble to burst guys. politicians and cronies will be laughing their asses off at the stupidity of us all. meanwhile, keep dancing, party on... pigss become pigssm? This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 19 2013, 10:15 PM |
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Jul 19 2013, 11:04 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 19 2013, 11:13 PM
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4,458 posts Joined: Nov 2008 From: Kuala Lumpur |
Why say fennel is undercon?
What does undercon mean? |
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Jul 19 2013, 11:37 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:00 AM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
woah....so fast another section is up. Don't panic investor and flipper. There are still room to play and fry. Just take your time.....so that we can have a greater bubble to be burst. I would like to see a down to earth property price in future.
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Jul 20 2013, 12:13 AM
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633 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
prediction of up and down is a guessing game, never know when it will be happened, how it will happen, and its seriousness...
just believe at your own analysis, do not follow the trend, follow your needs and capability, what ever decision being made, don't regret... the down turn of property market being talked for many years ago, i think before i bought my 1st property 6 years ago...and i had my 3rd properties now... the market still at the up trend of certain hot area, but the risk of burst is getting higher and higher now just like gold, when everyone / analyst saying that the price will keep its momentum and up, unfortunately it dropped so drastically. This post has been edited by tnchsg: Jul 20 2013, 12:17 AM |
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Jul 20 2013, 06:39 AM
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1,266 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
Home Flippers Come Roaring Back
http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/...ntl=us&.lang=en Any home flippers in this thread? This post has been edited by CloudAtla$: Jul 20 2013, 06:40 AM |
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Jul 20 2013, 08:57 AM
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1,614 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:50 AM
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247 posts Joined: Jun 2010 |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:58 AM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
Hundreds of ppl are lining up at THE FENNEL.
Buy RM800k++ condo like buying Happy Meal+Minions. Happy Fennel Meal. |
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Jul 20 2013, 11:10 AM
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869 posts Joined: Dec 2009 |
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Jul 20 2013, 11:47 AM
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2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:12 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:17 PM
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13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 20 2013, 12:12 PM) Sentul @ rM800k wor... if bubble burst the first one kena hit would be this kind of project leh... Mirage by the lake was nice as well.. but rm900k for a condo in cyberjaya.. that's very expensive.. More ppl were toking bout 400k dpc dslh back in may 2002. But ended up all sapued. And thise complaining and laughing back then r now hiding. |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:20 PM
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1,946 posts Joined: Aug 2009 |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:21 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 20 2013, 12:17 PM) More ppl were toking bout 400k dpc dslh back in may 2002. But ended up all sapued. And thise complaining and laughing back then r now hiding. but then they are competing with lotta other which is much more affordable. Imo what they are selling is lifestyle instead of a place to stay leh. Unless those cash rich old uncle also buys into it la. Else kinda hard to sustain if you are just asking Gen Y to buy em. rm800k you need a nett income of rm9k - 10k. Not easy leh. |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:37 PM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 20 2013, 12:21 PM) but then they are competing with lotta other which is much more affordable. Imo what they are selling is lifestyle instead of a place to stay leh. Unless those cash rich old uncle also buys into it la. Else kinda hard to sustain if you are just asking Gen Y to buy em. rm800k you need a nett income of rm9k - 10k. Not easy leh. Tis I agree with u. I blif most buyers r thise looking to upgrade or buying for kids. Very few ll choose tis for investment. Or at least I wont. |
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Jul 20 2013, 12:59 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 20 2013, 12:37 PM) Tis I agree with u. I blif most buyers r thise looking to upgrade or buying for kids. Very few ll choose tis for investment. Or at least I wont. Yah man... if they are really doing it for investment purpose. I think it's really a gamble. The location is really off my radar completely. |
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Jul 20 2013, 01:07 PM
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633 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 20 2013, 01:12 PM) Sentul @ rM800k wor... if bubble burst the first one kena hit would be this kind of project leh... Mirage by the lake was nice as well.. but rm900k for a condo in cyberjaya.. that's very expensive.. i absolutely agree with you...for the property above rm400psf, i will labelled it as expensive, especially condom property...these type of condom property is just like the front line soldier in a war..first to die..and i foresee that the the late comer will definitely easily get 50%discount for these types of condom / service apartment when the bubble blown up.. |
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Jul 20 2013, 06:45 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
It is just unbelievable... just sharing what I posted in The Fennel thread hence i put a spoiler here (see it if you want)... there are people who skip lunch because of this ok!!
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « This post has been edited by accetera: Jul 20 2013, 06:45 PM |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:02 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 20 2013, 06:45 PM) It is just unbelievable... just sharing what I posted in The Fennel thread hence i put a spoiler here (see it if you want)... there are people who skip lunch because of this ok!! Thanks for sharing accetera. Were you there to queue as well? Was it all sold out?» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:12 PM
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13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 20 2013, 10:02 PM) I acknowledged the recent hot weather. But wonder wats it so hot bout tis fennel???Buy 1 get 1 free kinda product??? Dun think so. Its no doubt vely near to kl city but at 800+k with 1+k sf, its a lil overpriced for sentul. With almost the same distance, royal regent look more promising thou I like the fennel design vely muchi. However if its an almost sold out project, it mean many out there stil willing to fork out $$$ for props. With tis price tag I blif not many fliipers were in the queue. |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:16 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 20 2013, 10:12 PM) I acknowledged the recent hot weather. But wonder wats it so hot bout tis fennel??? ya wor. your absolutely right. if it's really sold out i really dorno what to say. Was there any rebate for this??? YTL won't be giving out ma right...Buy 1 get 1 free kinda product??? Dun think so. Its no doubt vely near to kl city but at 800+k with 1+k sf, its a lil overpriced for sentul. With almost the same distance, royal regent look more promising thou I like the fennel design vely muchi. However if its an almost sold out project, it mean many out there stil willing to fork out $$$ for props. With tis price tag I blif not many fliipers were in the queue. Somehow i get to know a few project.. u pay deposit RM5k.. rebate 10% nvm.. still giving out cash back.. |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:18 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
I was not in the queue, but as mentioned in the thread, many people including myself would just trust YTL. Just that... is like buying branded goods.
Right or wrong, it is just YTL. And as mentioned and coincidentally, I saw their presentation before about the future Sentul and was quite impressed. YTL properties are way beyond my affordability so just passed on... This post has been edited by accetera: Jul 20 2013, 10:20 PM |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:21 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 20 2013, 10:18 PM) I was not in the queue, but as mentioned in the thread, many people including myself would just trust YTL. Just that... is like buying branded goods. Thanks for sharing hurmm.. Hope to know more about it as well. If they are really bringing up sentul area perhaps can really think about Sentul.. but not from YTL for sure... Right or wrong, it is just YTL. And as mentioned and coincidentally, I saw their presentation before about the future Sentul and was quite impressed. YTL properties are way beyond my affordability so just passed on... |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:28 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 20 2013, 10:21 PM) Thanks for sharing hurmm.. Hope to know more about it as well. If they are really bringing up sentul area perhaps can really think about Sentul.. but not from YTL for sure... YTL is certainly not for ordinary joe. Just like how many of us would go for YTL's brought-in Truefitt & Hill haircut wor... Btw, along the way coming from The Fennel's long queue, one would soon noticed what could be Malaysia's first Louis Vuitton global store. One of the region's largest. Now renovation under way until next year... |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:29 PM
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13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 20 2013, 10:21 PM) Thanks for sharing hurmm.. Hope to know more about it as well. If they are really bringing up sentul area perhaps can really think about Sentul.. but not from YTL for sure... However 700psf is not too expensive if its not in sentul. I dislike tis part of kl. |
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Jul 20 2013, 10:58 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 20 2013, 11:08 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
I do think sentul has a good future. But ytl cant do it alone.
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Jul 20 2013, 11:10 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 20 2013, 11:16 PM
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377 posts Joined: Feb 2006 |
QUOTE(Nomos @ Jul 20 2013, 11:08 PM) I agree especially with all the MRT, KTM and LRT passing by the heart of Sentul. All YTL or whichever developer have land in this area needs to do is to really develop it. I heard YTL is building a small mall opposite Saffron I think with link to KTM station.Anyhow.. those hundreds lining up for Fennel today and VIP that bought a ton yesterday may know something we all don't. Anyways can't contemplate on any props now... bullet dah habis |
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Jul 20 2013, 11:16 PM
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Senior Member
4,342 posts Joined: Apr 2010 From: The place that i call home :p |
If ytl sentul one day become dijaya tropicana in pj.....then also not bad mah ....... It did have its criteria to be on par ..........
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Jul 21 2013, 07:09 AM
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1,946 posts Joined: Aug 2009 |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 20 2013, 10:12 PM) I acknowledged the recent hot weather. But wonder wats it so hot bout tis fennel??? i think many ppl think that no point keep money in bank. money will get smaller especially when Jib gor announced high income (high inflation?) by 2018. so we are 2 years earlier for high income high prices era. i think more parents willing to fork otr thier saving to buy prop for their children. 1000 today maybe will become 500 in 2018. everything start naik harga now. Buy 1 get 1 free kinda product??? Dun think so. Its no doubt vely near to kl city but at 800+k with 1+k sf, its a lil overpriced for sentul. With almost the same distance, royal regent look more promising thou I like the fennel design vely muchi. However if its an almost sold out project, it mean many out there stil willing to fork out $$$ for props. With tis price tag I blif not many fliipers were in the queue. beside prop what else can we hedge to inflation? |
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Jul 21 2013, 07:37 AM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(lucerne @ Jul 21 2013, 07:09 AM) i think many ppl think that no point keep money in bank. money will get smaller especially when Jib gor announced high income (high inflation?) by 2018. so we are 2 years earlier for high income high prices era. i think more parents willing to fork otr thier saving to buy prop for their children. 1000 today maybe will become 500 in 2018. everything start naik harga now. I agree with this.. Money will most likely shrink faster than we were used to in the past.beside prop what else can we hedge to inflation? |
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Jul 21 2013, 08:40 AM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 20 2013, 10:18 PM) I was not in the queue, but as mentioned in the thread, many people including myself would just trust YTL. Just that... is like buying branded goods. One of the factors is these people has the confidence of a brand that made them money in the past. YTL has created a group of fansRight or wrong, it is just YTL. And as mentioned and coincidentally, I saw their presentation before about the future Sentul and was quite impressed. YTL properties are way beyond my affordability so just passed on... Another factor is that each area be it high income area or low income area, there are some rich people living there who need a better home. While they stayed there all their life, they do not wish to move to unfamiliar area like KLCC or Mont Kiara In Sg buloh we have Valencia/Sierramas. Klang/Shah Alam we have Setia Alam/Bkt Tinggi. Segambut Dalam we have Mon't Kiara. Kepong we have Desa Park City. So may be Sentul people need some projects like YTL |
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Jul 21 2013, 08:52 AM
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1,946 posts Joined: Aug 2009 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jul 21 2013, 08:40 AM) In Sg buloh we have Valencia/Sierramas. Klang/Shah Alam we have Setia Alam/Bkt Tinggi. Segambut Dalam we have Mon't Kiara. Kepong we have Desa Park City. So may be Sentul people need some projects like YTL where is the potential "WONG" project? maybe can target now.. |
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Jul 21 2013, 11:11 AM
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Senior Member
3,625 posts Joined: Nov 2007 From: Hornbill land |
Today RM600k.
2014 RM750k 2015 RM700k I bet if this scenario happens, during 2015 many people will say 'you seeeee!!! property market crash already! told you liao'. |
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Jul 21 2013, 11:27 AM
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Senior Member
2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
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Jul 21 2013, 12:42 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 21 2013, 12:49 PM
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Senior Member
2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
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Jul 21 2013, 01:00 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 22 2013, 02:32 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
It is not about good luck and timing too. 2010 u guys still talk about bubble right?
It was a judgement call for me. I took the risk and bought the apartments becuase bubble was not making sense to me back then given the information that I have, and I dont think there is one now. |
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Jul 22 2013, 02:36 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 22 2013, 02:32 PM) It is not about good luck and timing too. 2010 u guys still talk about bubble right? bro to say there is no bubble that's not true.. bubble is building up everyday it's whether can the market still support it.. Looking at the progress right after election... it isn't really a good sign man... but to have it blow out of a sudden it's impossible la. let's monitor the subsale market. as long as the subsale market is still going on.. we are safe.. but the moment the sub sale isn't moving then we would need to be really cautious by then. again if you buy within your capability your gonna be safe.It was a judgement call for me. I took the risk and bought the apartments becuase bubble was not making sense to me back then given the information that I have, and I dont think there is one now. |
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Jul 22 2013, 02:45 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 22 2013, 02:36 PM) bro to say there is no bubble that's not true.. bubble is building up everyday it's whether can the market still support it.. Looking at the progress right after election... it isn't really a good sign man... but to have it blow out of a sudden it's impossible la. let's monitor the subsale market. as long as the subsale market is still going on.. we are safe.. but the moment the sub sale isn't moving then we would need to be really cautious by then. again if you buy within your capability your gonna be safe. I concur with this - proceed but with great caution. Dont be overzealous. |
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Jul 22 2013, 02:49 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 22 2013, 02:36 PM) bro to say there is no bubble that's not true.. bubble is building up everyday it's whether can the market still support it.. Looking at the progress right after election... it isn't really a good sign man... but to have it blow out of a sudden it's impossible la. let's monitor the subsale market. as long as the subsale market is still going on.. we are safe.. but the moment the sub sale isn't moving then we would need to be really cautious by then. again if you buy within your capability your gonna be safe. yeah the correct word should be I believe, if there is a bubble, it will not burst soon or at least this year. I dont see it happening this year.2010 how many people convince me not to buy property and saying there was a bubble and how many people I tried to convince to buy Amaya with me but they didn't take it? roughly 10 person. I didnt want to buy Amaya alone, it would be nice to have somebody I know bought with me. But none took the offer because of the bubble rumors. |
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Jul 22 2013, 03:15 PM
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Junior Member
396 posts Joined: Mar 2005 From: Boleh Land |
Definitely market kinda over-gearing now. Doubt market will crash, just slow down and stagnant for a few year.
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Jul 22 2013, 03:30 PM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
stagnant stages is dangerous.
its just need some negative "things" to trigger that hard landing. |
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Jul 22 2013, 03:40 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 22 2013, 03:30 PM) stagnant is good.. It gives us a better chance to plan and prepare.. it's uncertainty which generates risk. I wish government would set a cap to property appreciation... those appreciated 200% or more is way beyond reach imo. If government would cap the appreciation base on the original purchase price the bubble would be controllable and it would not encourage speculation.. |
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Jul 22 2013, 03:41 PM
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377 posts Joined: Feb 2006 |
http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/prope...s-last-weekend/
Hmm.. maybe times are better now or we underestimate the number of well-to-do folks in Malaysia? |
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Jul 22 2013, 05:12 PM
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396 posts Joined: Mar 2005 From: Boleh Land |
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Jul 25 2013, 08:43 AM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 22 2013, 04:40 PM) stagnant is good.. It gives us a better chance to plan and prepare.. it's uncertainty which generates risk. I wish government would set a cap to property appreciation... those appreciated 200% or more is way beyond reach imo. If government would cap the appreciation base on the original purchase price the bubble would be controllable and it would not encourage speculation.. did i said stagnant is bad?I said stagnant is dangerous...example...see how long the economy in japan? ...long stagnant and what it has become now? This post has been edited by tikaram: Jul 25 2013, 08:44 AM |
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Jul 25 2013, 08:58 AM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/78058?tid=6
大馬5月出口跌5.8% 國際經濟情勢嚴峻,新興市場開始體力不支,原產品死氣沉沉更令“雙油”淪陷,大馬5月出口惡化,按年暴跌5.8%到553億7千萬令吉,低於預測,並連續4個月跌跌不休,明顯較市場預期的跌幅沉重。 May 2013 Export drop 5.8%... Export continue drop like for the past 4 months 2013 and expected continue to drop for 2013, further with no evident of not droping. .OMG! This post has been edited by tikaram: Jul 25 2013, 09:01 AM |
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Jul 25 2013, 09:05 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 25 2013, 08:43 AM) did i said stagnant is bad? tikaram why would you compare a ciku with an orange again? Please get back to the basis use a benchmark which you can realistically compare with. I said stagnant is dangerous...example...see how long the economy in japan? ...long stagnant and what it has become now? btw you said stagnant it's dangerous... so in your definition dangerous = bad? |
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Jul 25 2013, 09:17 AM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 25 2013, 10:05 AM) tikaram why would you compare a ciku with an orange again? Please get back to the basis use a benchmark which you can realistically compare with. okok spponfeed u.btw you said stagnant it's dangerous... so in your definition dangerous = bad? japan is good example for stagnant ma. a hot super sexy chick is generally dangerous in society. She is bad in the eyes of female but she is good in eyes of male. the same go to property. |
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Jul 25 2013, 09:20 AM
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All Stars
10,722 posts Joined: Nov 2011 |
wow...
OMG again RPGT could be 30% ... 3rd property LTV could be 40% .... got to pay cash? This post has been edited by tikaram: Jul 25 2013, 09:20 AM |
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Jul 25 2013, 09:24 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(tikaram @ Jul 25 2013, 09:17 AM) okok spponfeed u. Well if that's the way you want to play your words. Can't help.japan is good example for stagnant ma. a hot super sexy chick is generally dangerous in society. She is bad in the eyes of female but she is good in eyes of male. the same go to property. But again please go through the Japanese Economy and how the props had turned out to be today.. KV is no where near them. In Japan Execs would not be able to afford a home unless they are living an hour away from the main cities. In Malaysia? Please use a proper comparison. |
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Jul 25 2013, 09:59 AM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
Anyway, by looking at the recent responce fr fennel, I think there r stil ppl chasing props regardless of gd or bad props. As long as the loc is OK then many r actually ready to kill it off.
My fren bot 7 units by using diff names. According to him, due to limited time for choosing units, and oso afraid tat units chosen hav oledi been taken, they just make sure they point at wateva is the smallest size when its their turn. Reckon tis felo oso playing some flipping game which is no gd for the project. And he has started to call up some frenz to make kopi lui. Cash rich ppl stil many here. Just tat the strategies applied might not benefit the entire prop market in the long run. And the grey area is no dev is able to control the buyers fr buying more than 1 unit. The onli hope is the gov hav to make up the mind to amend the regulation to stop all tis nonsense. High LTV and high RPGT seems to b very gd tools now. |
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Jul 25 2013, 10:06 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 25 2013, 09:24 AM) Well if that's the way you want to play your words. Can't help. First he wants to compare KL with Detroit...then Japan...what's next, Timbuktu? Everywhere I see, see people buying properties in real life and in forums. Because they all need a house to live in, and they are all, as I see it buying within their means. Can't buy in KV, buy in Kajang, can't buy in Mont Kiara, buy in Sri Petaling. Any good launches in KL, buy Fennel. Market is still there.But again please go through the Japanese Economy and how the props had turned out to be today.. KV is no where near them. In Japan Execs would not be able to afford a home unless they are living an hour away from the main cities. In Malaysia? Please use a proper comparison. |
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Jul 25 2013, 10:10 AM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 25 2013, 09:59 AM) Anyway, by looking at the recent responce fr fennel, I think there r stil ppl chasing props regardless of gd or bad props. As long as the loc is OK then many r actually ready to kill it off. veli lich and powderful frens u hv boss.My fren bot 7 units by using diff names. According to him, due to limited time for choosing units, and oso afraid tat units chosen hav oledi been taken, they just make sure they point at wateva is the smallest size when its their turn. Reckon tis felo oso playing some flipping game which is no gd for the project. And he has started to call up some frenz to make kopi lui. Cash rich ppl stil many here. Just tat the strategies applied might not benefit the entire prop market in the long run. And the grey area is no dev is able to control the buyers fr buying more than 1 unit. The onli hope is the gov hav to make up the mind to amend the regulation to stop all tis nonsense. High LTV and high RPGT seems to b very gd tools now. satu kali tikam 7 bijik. actually veli dilemma also lah. developer not much difference from any other businesses. like char kuey teow. if a customer order 100 plates, he will fry 100 plates for him and ask other customers to wait or come another day. just like a developer would also sell 100 units to a single purchaser if the purchaser is able. of course both scenarios also the seller should verify the capability of the buyer to pay lah. |
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Jul 25 2013, 10:41 AM
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633 posts Joined: Feb 2009 |
because everyone also fear of the house price to be gone up without stop or the good loan of buying offer to be stopped anytime by BNM, hence everyone rush for that...
so might regret nowadays for those who believed the property will drop few years back, and it isn't.. some might need a house now, else no green light from the in-law not to go for married.... thousand of reasons... pity our generation nowadays who live in the city with cukup makan income... |
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Jul 25 2013, 10:57 AM
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4,440 posts Joined: Jan 2010 From: Kuala Lumpur |
Question to all:
Do you think there is going to be a major property slump in Malaysia sometime in 2015-2017? Please give your reasons. |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:00 AM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:07 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 25 2013, 10:57 AM) Question to all: I don't have a reason but if there is a property slump, it is not going to be major. When major I mean at most probably 20%. But 20% is still very conservativeDo you think there is going to be a major property slump in Malaysia sometime in 2015-2017? Please give your reasons. |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:13 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(tnchsg @ Jul 25 2013, 11:01 AM) if i am a bumi investor, i will never buy bumi lot for flipping, there is no resell value at all... Correct I know one bumi investor who only buys non bumi lots for investing. Malay reserve land much worse, if you buy on that land you can only sell to malays only. If you got no chinese market, then it is not worth it. Same as the feng shui issue, if feng shui not good, no chinese wants to buy then the house just dont appreciate. gov put this requirement just to make the ordinary houses become extra expensive (to compensate the bumi discount) and create more vacant units... bumi discount should really award to 1st or 2nd time bumi house buyer, in order to help them... But then indirectly this helps in a way to curb speculation and bubble, especially on the bumi lots. I bet you guys haven't thought about this. Let me put the idea here in then. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 25 2013, 11:14 AM |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:13 AM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(kochin @ Jul 25 2013, 10:10 AM) veli lich and powderful frens u hv boss. I'm not sure how he had gotten so many units when ytl announced onli 1 unit per head. As long as I know he was there with few relative to register under diff names. satu kali tikam 7 bijik. actually veli dilemma also lah. developer not much difference from any other businesses. like char kuey teow. if a customer order 100 plates, he will fry 100 plates for him and ask other customers to wait or come another day. just like a developer would also sell 100 units to a single purchaser if the purchaser is able. of course both scenarios also the seller should verify the capability of the buyer to pay lah. Regarding capability, dev ll lose nothin cos they r able to resell at higher price if the spa is not signed. Further to tat, admin fee is oledi mentioned up front tat its chargable. So should not hav any arguement on tat. Well, I hav just met up a valuer chatting bout the market scenario. He was surprise to c the responce fr tis fennel as well. And I was told tat quite a number of valuers r now getting some extra pocket $$$ to sign off higher value for the sellers. So its not surprising if the market kaboom, banks might start to take legal action on valuers if the valuers r appointed by them. |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:14 AM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:18 AM
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Senior Member
4,440 posts Joined: Jan 2010 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 25 2013, 11:14 AM) Onli minor in 17/18. Share market ll react 1st Based on what reasoning? |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:21 AM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 25 2013, 11:18 AM) I would say based on the example of 1998 Asian financial crisis where KLCI went as low as 200++ and property hardly move. I mean that is what I would give.Now I have to get off my lazy ass and get back to work. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 25 2013, 11:24 AM |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:33 AM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 25 2013, 11:18 AM) Dev might b over confident now with the launching price. Eventhou I dun touch resi, but I can feel the pain with some of the highly priced resi. Commi, no prob. U ll c more chain retailers either local brands or foreign brands renting. Its just the matter of roi. Could b as low as 3%. Unless the loc is very lousy. |
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Jul 25 2013, 11:59 AM
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1,801 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 25 2013, 09:59 AM) Anyway, by looking at the recent responce fr fennel, I think there r stil ppl chasing props regardless of gd or bad props. As long as the loc is OK then many r actually ready to kill it off. Boss, I bet quite a substantial group of buyers are stronger supporter or fans of YTL...... If really ask them detail of project, I won't be surprise lots of them can't even answer u...... My fren bot 7 units by using diff names. According to him, due to limited time for choosing units, and oso afraid tat units chosen hav oledi been taken, they just make sure they point at wateva is the smallest size when its their turn. Reckon tis felo oso playing some flipping game which is no gd for the project. And he has started to call up some frenz to make kopi lui. Cash rich ppl stil many here. Just tat the strategies applied might not benefit the entire prop market in the long run. And the grey area is no dev is able to control the buyers fr buying more than 1 unit. The onli hope is the gov hav to make up the mind to amend the regulation to stop all tis nonsense. High LTV and high RPGT seems to b very gd tools now. |
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Jul 25 2013, 10:18 PM
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VIP
9,137 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Wouldn't be around much, pls PM other mods. |
This topic will remain close until after I have reviewed the recent pages and complains.
Any "deserving posts" will get the deserved warning or suspension. Am little bit tied up with work this past weeks but I will try and go through this topic over the weekend. |
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Jul 26 2013, 10:33 PM
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263 posts Joined: Aug 2011 |
Guys, seem like the bubble prophecy is getting stronger by days. Now seem like media and bank negara also losing their cool recently. So my question here on this thread will be will the Prophecy that we are debating for so long will finally reach Malaysian shore? This is not from me..but from the STAR column itself, I am quite disturb to go through of it. How do you think, and any of you already start making precaution steps? Mind to share for the good of all?
link Dude, where’s my mortgage? Posted on July 26, 2013 - Featured, Investment. Will Bank Negara’s recent loan regulations herald a local credit crunch and bursting of the bubble? These are interesting times, said a property consultant over lunch recently. The pumping of liquidity by the US, UK, Europe and Japan into their economies, and by extension into the world, by the trillions of dollars, has been on an unprecedented scale. It’s like being part of a mass global experiment, the results of which we’re not quite sure, but will surely be of massive consequences. So far, quantitative easing seems to have worked. The US is showing positive figures and we have not seen the collapse of capitalism. The “we are the 99%”-ers have not taken over from the purported 1% Illuminati controlling the world’s wealth and economy. Nor has the US fallen off a fiscal cliff. The Occupy movement still continues but seems to have lost momentum–Alex Wong/Getty Images/AFP In Malaysia, we have smugly ridden out the turmoils. While the property market has frozen for several years in the UK, banks still push you credit cards here (I just picked up a cool suitcase, Ikea freebies and travel miles upon approval) and people don’t think twice about eating out on RM50 per person. In terms of property, launches have been aplenty, and panel bankers line up to serve you. Prices in some places have doubled since 2008 and we can even now take over parts of London… Malaysia boleh! What, me worry? If you were to read Bank Negara’s latest Financial Stability and Payment Systems Report 2012, everything sounds hunky dory. The percentage of impaired (or non-performing) loans dropped last year to 1.5% for household loans, down from 1.8% in 2011 and 2.3% in 2010. “Indicators of aggregate household resilience are sound with total and liquid household financial buffers remaining stable,” goes the report. “More importantly, indicators in the banking sector continue to support the sound overall credit quality of household loans from the banking system.” All very controlled and dependable, just like our iron banking lady, Tan Sri Zeti Aziz, it seems. Special advisor to Consumers Association of Penang (CAP) Dr Lim Mah Hui (left) and CAP president S.M. Mohamed Idris showing charts on the comparison of household debt and disposable income as well as the debt service ratio in Malaysia. Yes, Bank Negara may have lost a bit of cool recently by admitting that profligate loans have encouraged households to accumulate excessive debt. Housing, car, credit card and personal loans have increased “at a strong pace”–12% per year over the last few years–and now represents 81% of our national income. This is risky because if interest rates rise and the economy falters, people will lose jobs and find it difficult to pay their debts; banks then would be out of money which they owe to deposit holders or other banks. To counter this, Bank Negara recently announced it would limit mortgage tenures to 35 years. It may also curb developer interest-bearing schemes (DIBS)–where property builders pay for buyers’ loan interests during construction. Luckily, all these are calculated moves to slow down rather than crash a vibrant property market, aren’t they? Over the last couple of weeks, however, we’ve been hearing phrases which would not normally be mentioned crop up: bad words like “interest rates increase”, “capital flight”, and “price correction”. Do we possibly see the tide turning? Interest rates won’t rise, or will they? Bernanke testified in Capitol Hill recently that there is a risk that Congressional fiscal policy “will restrain economic growth over the next few quarters by more than we currently expect.”–Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP Economy watchers have for some time placed any increase in interest rates beyond the immediate future, next year at the earliest. Low interest rates have provided cheap and easy credit and mortgages in Malaysia have grown steadily. Last year, more than half of all household loans–56%–were for buying properties, said Bank Negara’s report. The proportion of them taking multiple loans, furthermore, had risen, “signaling a resumption in demand for housing credit for investment purposes”. After all, advertisements tout property as a means of achieving wealth and financial freedom. Gurus tell you that if you stretch your loans out, your monthly instalments will come out lower than your rentals (“positive cash flow”), and with enough properties, you may even quit your job! Recently however, US Federal Reserve chief, Ben Bernanke (the American Tan Sri Zeti) indicated that it might begin tapering off quantitative easing as long as labour markets continue to improve. Although he’s qualified this in several aspects, US interest rates have risen in response, making the dollar and US assets possibly attractive propositions again. Many thus anticipate funds, which had flowed into emerging markets during the financial crisis, to flow back to the US and Europe again. Manulife Asset Management Services Bhd chief investment officer Jason Chong indeed hinted that there may be a possible mass-exit of foreign investors from the Malaysian bond, money or equity markets. To stem this capital flight, and also to protect attendant currency falls, India and Indonesia have increased interest rates up to 2%. Bank of Canada has also said that it would “gradually normalize” borrowing costs over time as the slack in the economy disappears and inflation picks up. Brazil, meanwhile, increased rates 0.5% to battle inflation. Here in Malaysia, Standard Chartered made the recent, bold prediction that rates might increase by 0.25% as early as November. What would be its impact? For me, it means an increase in monthly instalments of RM100 per month. Imagine if I had three mortgages and my instalments went up on all of them? If I were a professional landlord, I could now be cash flow negative with my dreams of financial freedom soured. Another development to tighten funds would be the Basel III reforms, which require the world’s banks to have enough cash in their vaults and not to lend out too much, to avoid further banking failures. Bank Negara is confident that our banks would have no problem meeting the requirements by 2018, but it would surely mean a constraint on lending. Already, word on the ground from property sales people goes that some banks are starting to approve only 80% loans for those already servicing another residential property loan. Potential correction The figures show noticeable spikes in the Malaysian House Price Index and Index of Units Launched by Price for properties priced above RM1mil from late 2010. Investors have also started talking about a “potential correction” in the property market, that runaway property prices indicate the top of a property cycle. “There are risks faced by Malaysian banks in relation to high household debt and a potential correction in the country’s property market, but we think there is a low likelihood of these risks playing out in the next 12 to 18 months,” said credit ratings firm Moody’s in Singapore recently. The property life cycle, as drawn out by real estate blogger AgentDiary, postulates that Malaysia is at the top of the cycle, with characteristics including transaction price peak and the “property price never drops” rhetoric. You wouldn’t have known it from the primary market. YTL Land & Development Bhd’s preview of its Fennel project in Sentul East, priced at RM700 per sq ft, sold out two blocks within two days. Low Yat Group’s Tribeca project on Jalan Imbi has managed to sell at prices ranging from RM1,800 to RM2,400 per sq ft to mainly foreign buyers. Even at stratospheric prices between RM1,800 to RM2,400 per sq ft, Low Yat Group sold almost half its apartments in its Tribeca project on Jalan Imbi. Arcoris Mont’Kiara by UEM Sunrise Bhd, meanwhile, managed to chart about 90% of sales before its show units debuted to the public. The majority of Tribeca’s units were sold to foreign buyers, from the likes of Indonesia, China and Taiwan, however, while Arcoris’ developers gave significant rebates as sales incentives. Arcoris Mont’Kiara has seen nearly complete take-up, as packaged with significant incentives. Property investor Michael Tan reckons that if there were to be a bubble bursting, it could happen within the next couple of years, when many projects bought during the 2010 to 2012 property bull run are completed: “Many were sold on DIBS, so buyers didn’t fork out any cash until completion, not to mention all the attractive rebates. But when the properties come on stream, many will be looking to flip or rent out, and that will be the first test: whether they can find buyers or tenants.” In terms of housing affordability, the ratio of average house prices in Malaysia, in relation to household income, comes in at about four. In rapidly emerging markets, this is still acceptable, noted valuer Elvin Fernandez has said. However, the figure rises to six, seven or even eight in certain areas of the country, he adds, and this is similar to the ratios that were seen in American houses prices “before they crashed down towards the figure of three during the sub-prime crisis, and three is some kind of gravitational pull for house prices”. A return to Danaharta? Mitraland Group chairman Dato’ Johan Ariffin (left) and group CEO Chuah Theong Yee believe that regulation of the property market will benefit the industry in the long run. Datuk Johan Ariffin, previous senior GM for Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd’s property division, and now chairman of property developer Mitraland Sdn Bhd, doesn’t believe there will be a return to the last Asian Financial Crisis however. So many loans defaulted then that the government formed Danaharta to buy them out from cash-poor banks. “No, it’s a different landscape today,” says Johan who also sits on the board of Maybank and Sime Darby Properties. “Then, it was a currency thing, many people had overgeared and businesses had borrowed too much. Today, our banks are much stronger, they have been recapitalised and are very well run compared to 12 years ago. It would take a lot for something to affect the whole system.” One thing’s for sure, restrictions cool buyer sentiments, such as when the 70% loan cap for the third home and net income rule were announced in 2010 and last year, respectively. Bank Negara’s regulations may dampen sales but they will weed out speculators, says Dato’ Johan Ariffin, chairman of Mitraland Group which develops projects such as 16 Quartz in Taman Melawati, pictured. “While it may have taken us three months to hit 60% sales in the past, today it takes us six months to do it, because your buyers come, they are interested but they can’t qualify for a loan then you have to find new buyers,” says Johan. This means that developers must have enough funds to tie them over a delay in sales. “In our cash flow planning, we already anticipate and make provision for a longer initial sales period. This just means less speculators and more genuine buyers.” So is everything really under control then, as Bank Negara intimates? Are we just having a controlled slowdown rather than a crash? As a property watcher said over breakfast, you never know. Just like in the late ‘90s, the Asian Financial Crisis took most of us by surprise. We are living in one of history’s largest financial experiments, though, and whether Malaysian property sees a harsh or soft ride towards fundamental values will surely be affected by its outcome… Watch this space. |
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Jul 26 2013, 10:56 PM
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for me,
bubble is not prophecy but a cycle. 100% will come just the matter of time. Based on the wind i heard, before property bubble, there will be bubble for stock first...so kick ur ass out of property when stock is not doing good... |
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Jul 26 2013, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(SpeechLess11 @ Jul 26 2013, 10:56 PM) for me, You means loading off all the properties before it get crashes? do you think its a bit too aggresive? what if it doesnt burst but just correction?bubble is not prophecy but a cycle. 100% will come just the matter of time. Based on the wind i heard, before property bubble, there will be bubble for stock first...so kick ur ass out of property when stock is not doing good... |
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Jul 26 2013, 11:05 PM
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QUOTE(iwin_wai @ Jul 26 2013, 11:01 PM) You means loading off all the properties before it get crashes? do you think its a bit too aggresive? what if it doesnt burst but just correction? from somewhere i read,cash king = winner during bubble time if you know how to use it but of coz, im just a small potato so dun take my word seriously...LOL let's wait for daigor reply... This post has been edited by SpeechLess11: Jul 26 2013, 11:27 PM |
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Jul 26 2013, 11:20 PM
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Jul 27 2013, 01:17 AM
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9,137 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Wouldn't be around much, pls PM other mods. |
Topic CLEANED and reopened.
and pls tone down on the sarcastic flaming and taunting antics! |
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Jul 27 2013, 06:00 AM
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This thread been closed, reopen, thn close again. Same cycle again after awhile. Wft. By the way, who really think whatever discussed here will influence the market?
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Jul 27 2013, 08:30 AM
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We know that GST has impact on property price.
Imho, GST will not be implemented in Malaysia before next election due to political reason. Here are some points need to consider:- 1). Assume GST implementation is announced in Year 2014 Budget (25/10/2013, budget day). 2). Debating, 2nd and 3rd reading, pass the bill...it will be finalised in March 2014. 3). From the Custom webside, it needs 18 months to 24 months to implement after passing the bill 4). Take 18 months preparation and education to the public, it will be around Oct Year 2015. Therefore, the probable date to implement is 1/1/2016 5). 1/1/2016 is too close to Year 2018(election year), so the gov't may discard the implementation of GST b/4 next election. This post has been edited by Denis: Jul 27 2013, 08:38 AM |
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Jul 27 2013, 09:39 AM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
Just the beginning of Q3 and we witness one of the strongest BBB for fennel project.
From remix thread, it seems remix 2 also super BBB. What is BNM gonna do next? |
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Jul 27 2013, 10:01 AM
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The topic reopened..then i saw a few new posts then i went in again and some disappeared already...did I imagine that?
Anyway i had a meeting in my bank 2 days ago. They highlighted the household debt is 80% of gdp...well we need to watch out, but dunt believe should not concern us dat much...yet. In the meantime, if dont have a house buy one. No need to think about it. Let say interest rate increase, would only then we want to buy? Doenst make sense. Only if dont hav one u buy for investment..maybe should think twice. |
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Jul 27 2013, 10:04 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(CloudAtla$ @ Jul 27 2013, 06:00 AM) This thread been closed, reopen, thn close again. Same cycle again after awhile. Wft. By the way, who really think whatever discussed here will influence the market? It wont influence the market but if one was an avid forumer, it will influence the buy and sell beahviour of that particular forum visitor. I know. Not me laa, a fren i know. However that doesnt mean that it is not good. |
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Jul 27 2013, 02:10 PM
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6,779 posts Joined: Dec 2005 From: Kuala Lumpur |
hi guys, need your advice. the apartment i stay already 20 years but we still have not gotten our strata title. land office said that this developer still not yet given them master title. what should i do to deal with this issue? the developer said by this year but already 20 years. doesn't make sense right? just worry, this developer use the geran to pinjam money and went bankrupt.
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Jul 27 2013, 07:14 PM
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Jul 27 2013, 08:43 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 27 2013, 10:01 AM) The topic reopened..then i saw a few new posts then i went in again and some disappeared already...did I imagine that? That's a very interesting statement (Bold sentence)... Let me ask u a question, how long is the usual housing loan take up by most people? 20 - 35 years? Maybe for the next year or so, the interest might stay low but how if it increases just by a 1- 2% n stays tat high for the remaining years.. I guess the damage for the next coming years will be much higher.. So suggesting buying property based on current interest rate might nt be such a gud idea... However for own stay it shouldn't b an issue if u buy within ur capacity now... if u stretch too much, even for own stay might end up in deep shit..Anyway i had a meeting in my bank 2 days ago. They highlighted the household debt is 80% of gdp...well we need to watch out, but dunt believe should not concern us dat much...yet. In the meantime, if dont have a house buy one. No need to think about it. Let say interest rate increase, would only then we want to buy? Doenst make sense. Only if dont hav one u buy for investment..maybe should think twice. |
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Jul 28 2013, 05:39 AM
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QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 27 2013, 08:43 PM) That's a very interesting statement (Bold sentence)... Let me ask u a question, how long is the usual housing loan take up by most people? 20 - 35 years? Maybe for the next year or so, the interest might stay low but how if it increases just by a 1- 2% n stays tat high for the remaining years.. I guess the damage for the next coming years will be much higher.. So suggesting buying property based on current interest rate might nt be such a gud idea... However for own stay it shouldn't b an issue if u buy within ur capacity now... if u stretch too much, even for own stay might end up in deep shit.. Factor in the increase salary that we should be expecting as the years gone by, increase interest rate should not be an issue, factor in the potential combine income with your spouse when you get married too if you are single. How mane basis points will BNM increase? If they want to increase, might be just another 25bps. It should be alright for everybody in my opinion. Can,t be increased 1% or 2%. Cant believe the FED will be doing that. That will be suicidal for US. That was why Bernanke took back his statement last time, but the damage was done, long term yield increased. But as I said, expect that your income should increase in d future. Do we expect in 10 yrs our income should be the same as what u are getting now? Me myself expect that it should be increasing next year. And if i am married, if there is trouble, which i dont think so, my wife can chip in a bit. |
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Jul 28 2013, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Jul 27 2013, 02:10 PM) hi guys, need your advice. the apartment i stay already 20 years but we still have not gotten our strata title. land office said that this developer still not yet given them master title. what should i do to deal with this issue? the developer said by this year but already 20 years. doesn't make sense right? just worry, this developer use the geran to pinjam money and went bankrupt. Same issue with my parents' property many many years ago where one developer (hint: man owns a football club in a premier league) never released the master and strata titles instead use them as collateral for his own financing. All the owners banded together and took unified legal action. Although successful, it was a long drawn process. |
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Jul 28 2013, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 22 2013, 02:49 PM) yeah the correct word should be I believe, if there is a bubble, it will not burst soon or at least this year. I dont see it happening this year. I am assuming it is the Amaya Condo in Saujana.2010 how many people convince me not to buy property and saying there was a bubble and how many people I tried to convince to buy Amaya with me but they didn't take it? roughly 10 person. I didnt want to buy Amaya alone, it would be nice to have somebody I know bought with me. But none took the offer because of the bubble rumors. What was the asking price of Amaya then at 2010? What is the asking price of the same unit in 2013, assuming that there is one? Thanks in advance for sharing info. |
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Jul 28 2013, 02:19 PM
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6,779 posts Joined: Dec 2005 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(Hollow21 @ Jul 28 2013, 10:13 AM) Same issue with my parents' property many many years ago where one developer (hint: man owns a football club in a premier league) never released the master and strata titles instead use them as collateral for his own financing. All the owners banded together and took unified legal action. Although successful, it was a long drawn process. i see, so bad they all. i think i gotta voice this up to the rest of owner to let them know and join effort to do something about it. |
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Jul 28 2013, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(hondaracer @ Jul 28 2013, 01:12 PM) I am assuming it is the Amaya Condo in Saujana. No it is amaya maluri in taman maluriWhat was the asking price of Amaya then at 2010? What is the asking price of the same unit in 2013, assuming that there is one? Thanks in advance for sharing info. If 719 sq ft last time cheapest 300k. Now its 500k. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 28 2013, 03:15 PM |
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Jul 28 2013, 03:14 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 28 2013, 05:39 AM) Factor in the increase salary that we should be expecting as the years gone by, increase interest rate should not be an issue, factor in the potential combine income with your spouse when you get married too if you are single. How mane basis points will BNM increase? If they want to increase, might be just another 25bps. It should be alright for everybody in my opinion. Can,t be increased 1% or 2%. Cant believe the FED will be doing that. That will be suicidal for US. That was why Bernanke took back his statement last time, but the damage was done, long term yield increased. But as I said, expect that your income should increase in d future. Do we expect in 10 yrs our income should be the same as what u are getting now? Me myself expect that it should be increasing next year. And if I am married, if there is trouble, which i don't think so, my wife can chip in a bit. I like ur take on the matter... But wat I am more worried about is "Wat happen in 2008"... All this while I am attached to big MNC's, wic r making hell a lot of money, but back in 2008 everyone was having the same thought as you increase salary that we should be expecting as the years gone by but ended up, 2008 no bonus and no increment Most of us when we take loans, we assume everything gone be fine n work as usual so we tend to over leverage and when things go the other way round, we might end up at the wrong end... I am nt married so im nt sure on the wifey thing but most of my friends, their spouse own separate property... so it really depends on the situation I guess... This post has been edited by all blacks: Jul 28 2013, 03:31 PM |
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Jul 28 2013, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 28 2013, 03:14 PM) I like ur take on the matter... But wat I am more worried about is "Wat happen in 2008"... All this while I am attached to big MNC's, wic r making hell a lot of money, but back in 2008 everyone was having the same thought as you increase salary that we should be expecting as the years gone by but ended up, 2008 no bonus and no increment Are u saying 2008 or 1998?Most of us when we take loans, we assume everything gone be fine n work as usual so we tend to over leverage and when things go the other way round, we might end up at the wrong end... I am nt married so im nt sure on the wifey thing but most of my friends, their spouse own separate property... so it really depends on the situation I guess... Because to tell you d truth, 2008 was good for me. Good bonus and increment as well. I dont believe 2008 had any effect in Malaysia..well in banks. I dunno about other industry. If it is 1998, might be a different story but for 1998 to happen again is actually quite remote. The banks is fully prepared nowadays for it not to happen again. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 28 2013, 06:06 PM |
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Jul 28 2013, 09:48 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 28 2013, 06:05 PM) Are u saying 2008 or 1998? Im talking bout 2008 bro... Im from IT/Consulting background n would say most of the US based multinational companies suffered badly which indirectly hit UK companies too as business was quite bad since most of the revenue was flowing from US region.. Tats including semiconductor field as well as my frens were working in that industry.. I am assuming u r attached to a local bank? or even if an international bank I guess ur KPI would be based on ur regional or maybe only Malaysia performance? if tats the case u wouldn't have felt it.. Thanks to our weak RM, even though we were doing quite well here but the revenue was too small n even that went to 0 when local based MNC companies started to feel the impact..Because to tell you d truth, 2008 was good for me. Good bonus and increment as well. I dont believe 2008 had any effect in Malaysia..well in banks. I dunno about other industry. If it is 1998, might be a different story but for 1998 to happen again is actually quite remote. The banks is fully prepared nowadays for it not to happen again. This post has been edited by all blacks: Jul 28 2013, 09:49 PM |
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Jul 28 2013, 11:25 PM
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QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 28 2013, 09:48 PM) Im talking bout 2008 bro... Im from IT/Consulting background n would say most of the US based multinational companies suffered badly which indirectly hit UK companies too as business was quite bad since most of the revenue was flowing from US region.. Tats including semiconductor field as well as my frens were working in that industry.. I am assuming u r attached to a local bank? or even if an international bank I guess ur KPI would be based on ur regional or maybe only Malaysia performance? if tats the case u wouldn't have felt it.. Thanks to our weak RM, even though we were doing quite well here but the revenue was too small n even that went to 0 when local based MNC companies started to feel the impact.. Yeah if u r based in us and uk, then it will affect u. But u know, a malaysian from citibank in usa managed to get a job in our bank. Yeah, malaysian banks need prioritising hiring malaysians. BNM requirement. In that sense, malaysian working abroad were kind of lucky during that time. usa banks were downsizing but malaysia were more than happy to accept them.Yeah generally local banks in malaysia wasnt affected. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 28 2013, 11:26 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 09:12 AM
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let's said Malaysia property price really do drop (eg. 10% or more), normally how it takes how many year to pick up back ?? Based on statistics ?
When is out previous property slow down/ crash the most recent one? It take how long to raise back ? |
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Jul 29 2013, 12:06 PM
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Moon yuen,
Malaysia property never drop b4 one ... |
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Jul 29 2013, 12:37 PM
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Jul 29 2013, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(moon yuen @ Jul 29 2013, 09:12 AM) let's said Malaysia property price really do drop (eg. 10% or more), normally how it takes how many year to pick up back ?? Based on statistics ? Unlike stock mkt where you can track the index by technical chart, property is rising and dropping every moment.When is out previous property slow down/ crash the most recent one? It take how long to raise back ? Good mkt - 80% up 20% drop Bad mkt - 20% up 80% drop Assume average drop 10%, based on my analysis the component shd be like this :- Commercial shoplot (- 15%) Factory (- 20%) Condo / service apt (- 20%) Landed (0% to - 7%) Office lot (- 25%) Empty land (development) (+ 10% to +15%) Since landed has the biggest transacted volume, it would give a heavier weight to the index. In the above scenario, 4-6 yrs to rebound If landed drop 20% (in general), it's a disaster, highrise wd drop 40%-50% already. This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jul 29 2013, 12:55 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 01:09 PM
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Anybody heard this? Diesel is missing all over Malaysia.
And what type of gasoline do the machinery that works on property? Diesel right? This is a precursor to increase in diesel price ladies and gentlman.... and I guess property will go down???? I mean I want to hear from people who say that property is going to go down camp. Is it possible for property going down? IMO this is infaltion at its best. Property is going up because of cost push inflation AND combine with demand pull inflation, be realistic. Chicken goes up, fish goes up, vegetables go up, sugar go up and only property goes down? Hmmh another point talking about economy, during the 2008 crisis in the US, interest rates went down to almost 0%. But some of us here are arguing that property price will go down because we cant service the loan due to increase interest rates, therefore more default.Learn from US, Japan etc..but really? Let say the economy is really in a bad shape in Malaysia, are we going to increase intrest rates? But then US didn't do that. My take is always, Malaysia is different from the rest of the world. But the negative thinking people will say...just wait, Malaysia will crash soon. Dont buy anyhthing yet, learn from US, detroit, japan..bla..bla..bla. Well, they can keep on waiting. |
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Jul 29 2013, 01:15 PM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 01:09 PM) Anybody heard this? Diesel is missing all over Malaysia. Yes diesel is being speculated to shortage. To b fair, maybe props is not goin up, but rm goin down.And what type of gasoline do the machinery that works on property? Diesel right? This is a precursor to increase in diesel price ladies and gentlman.... and I guess property will go down???? I mean I want to hear from people who say that property is going to go down camp. Is it possible for property going down? IMO this is infaltion at its best. Property is going up because of cost push inflation AND combine with demand pull inflation, be realistic. Chicken goes up, fish goes up, vegetables go up, sugar go up and only property goes down? Hmmh another point talking about economy, during the 2008 crisis in the US, interest rates went down to almost 0%. But some of us here are arguing that property price will go down because we cant service the loan due to increase interest rates, therefore more default.Learn from US, Japan etc..but really? Let say the economy is really in a bad shape in Malaysia, are we going to increase intrest rates? But then US didn't do that. My take is always, Malaysia is different from the rest of the world. But the negative thinking people will say...just wait, Malaysia will crash soon. Dont buy anyhthing yet, learn from US, detroit, japan..bla..bla..bla. Well, they can keep on waiting. |
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Jul 29 2013, 01:28 PM
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up or down is relative.
if up % less than inflation, consider down. |
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Jul 29 2013, 01:29 PM
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so, i guess, time to increase interest rate to control inflation
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Jul 29 2013, 01:35 PM
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QUOTE(katijar @ Jul 29 2013, 01:29 PM) only if the FED does that. Dont think it will be soon. And for a cost push inflation, I doubt it will work. The best thing to control the inflation is to reduce oil price. But of course this government will never do such thing. |
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Jul 29 2013, 05:09 PM
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6,779 posts Joined: Dec 2005 From: Kuala Lumpur |
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Jul 29 2013, 05:34 PM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:29 PM
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Jul 29 2013, 06:35 PM
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QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 28 2013, 03:14 PM) I like ur take on the matter... But wat I am more worried about is "Wat happen in 2008"... All this while I am attached to big MNC's, wic r making hell a lot of money, but back in 2008 everyone was having the same thought as you increase salary that we should be expecting as the years gone by but ended up, 2008 no bonus and no increment i feel that too tho not me but my co also kena....people were either slashed off or slashed pay, no bonus or increment.Most of us when we take loans, we assume everything gone be fine n work as usual so we tend to over leverage and when things go the other way round, we might end up at the wrong end... I am nt married so im nt sure on the wifey thing but most of my friends, their spouse own separate property... so it really depends on the situation I guess... Back in 1998...my mom told me ppl who are in the higher earning bracket were the 1st to go....they can hire 2-3 fellas with 1 fella's pay. So yeah.....be happy with your increment now...until they cant take it anymore and there u go, out the door. That message was always clear in my mind, altho never happen to me before, doesnt mean it wont but i am still lowly paid LOL! so maybe later only my turn la. This post has been edited by mIssfROGY: Jul 29 2013, 06:44 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:41 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
crude oil rise over 10% past 1 month, at the same time RM drop nearly 8% against USD. Double blade wound to our govt coffer.
dilemma to raise price now as still too near after GE13 and just a week to go b4 Raya. I speculate petrol company have problem to bring in supply without increase the subsidies quota. QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 01:09 PM) Anybody heard this? Diesel is missing all over Malaysia. And what type of gasoline do the machinery that works on property? Diesel right? This is a precursor to increase in diesel price ladies and gentlman.... and I guess property will go down???? I mean I want to hear from people who say that property is going to go down camp. Is it possible for property going down? IMO this is infaltion at its best. Property is going up because of cost push inflation AND combine with demand pull inflation, be realistic. Chicken goes up, fish goes up, vegetables go up, sugar go up and only property goes down? Hmmh another point talking about economy, during the 2008 crisis in the US, interest rates went down to almost 0%. But some of us here are arguing that property price will go down because we cant service the loan due to increase interest rates, therefore more default.Learn from US, Japan etc..but really? Let say the economy is really in a bad shape in Malaysia, are we going to increase intrest rates? But then US didn't do that. My take is always, Malaysia is different from the rest of the world. But the negative thinking people will say...just wait, Malaysia will crash soon. Dont buy anyhthing yet, learn from US, detroit, japan..bla..bla..bla. Well, they can keep on waiting. |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 01:09 PM) Anybody heard this? Diesel is missing all over Malaysia. but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive?And what type of gasoline do the machinery that works on property? Diesel right? This is a precursor to increase in diesel price ladies and gentlman.... and I guess property will go down???? I mean I want to hear from people who say that property is going to go down camp. Is it possible for property going down? IMO this is infaltion at its best. Property is going up because of cost push inflation AND combine with demand pull inflation, be realistic. Chicken goes up, fish goes up, vegetables go up, sugar go up and only property goes down? Hmmh another point talking about economy, during the 2008 crisis in the US, interest rates went down to almost 0%. But some of us here are arguing that property price will go down because we cant service the loan due to increase interest rates, therefore more default.Learn from US, Japan etc..but really? Let say the economy is really in a bad shape in Malaysia, are we going to increase intrest rates? But then US didn't do that. My take is always, Malaysia is different from the rest of the world. But the negative thinking people will say...just wait, Malaysia will crash soon. Dont buy anyhthing yet, learn from US, detroit, japan..bla..bla..bla. Well, they can keep on waiting. in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo. U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:48 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
u mistake between fed fund rate and mortgage rate. At this moment, US 30 yrs ARM is about 4.6%. We have even lower 30 yrs rate at 4.2%.
QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 29 2013, 06:43 PM) but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive? in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo. U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:50 PM
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QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 29 2013, 06:43 PM) but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive? this has been said umpteen times, but seems nobody cares.in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo. U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt and the rebuttal is always - msia is special, msia is diff, more rich people than poor. many a lot richer than u think, like or imagine (but debt keeps going up like mad, why?). even hawkers and teachers earn 10k pm. banks and oil&gas 30k pm. plus those in sg, shanghai, london, billions in bank accounts ready to buy. so, how can anyone not have moolah to buy anything? u must be lazy or and negative. feel like giving up? This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 06:52 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:52 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
agree.
we are in fact very similar to other bubble countries. Jim nailed it right! QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 29 2013, 06:50 PM) this has been said umpteen times, nobody cares. and the rebuttal is always - msia is special, msia is diff, more rich people than poor. many a lot richer than u think, like or imgine (but debt keeps going up). even hawkers earn, teachers earn 10k pm. banks and oil&gas 30k pm. plus thsioe in sgm, shanghai, london, billions ready to buy. so, how can anyone not have moolah to buy anything? u must be lazy or and negative. feel like giving up? |
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Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM
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QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 29 2013, 06:43 PM) but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive? Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down.in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo. U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt This is to the fact like iceman said, we hav a different economic theory cant compare wit US. If ever interest rate went close to 0% here, i believe property investor would rejoice. And we still hav huge KWSP to bailout anybody, as what we went through 1998. There will never be the lehman brothers incident here. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 29 2013, 06:55 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 07:00 PM
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forget about low interests rate entirely, it wont happen, never again.
No fire sale as far as I remember in 98, people was so scare and depressed. I bough a car (99) and interests rate was about 10% and max 5 yrs. hahaha, what a pathetic time then, most people were very very depressed. Don't think Malaysia will be that bad in the coming storm, as the coming storm epicenter is not here, it's up North, China. QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM) Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down. This is to the fact like iceman said, we hav a different economic theory cant compare wit US. If ever interest rate went close to 0% here, i believe property investor would rejoice. And we still hav huge KWSP to bailout anybody, as what we went through 1998. There will never be the lehman brothers incident here. |
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Jul 29 2013, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM) Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down. think u already know the diff between 1998 and now is additional >rm500billion in debt, private and gomen combined. world bank, imf, adb have been warning msia there is little room left to play in the event of a crisis with with such debt levels. well, if u say msia can take it, can take another 500bn, no diff, then there is nothing more to say. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 07:09 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 07:14 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 29 2013, 07:08 PM) think u already know the diff between 1998 and now is additional >rm500billion in debt, private and gomen combined. Thats why i said. We still hav epf as a safeguard. I was imagining the cyprus incident happening here. And if it is that bad, our epf that is in trillions, can still save us. No doubt are epf saving might slash 50%, but better than when Malaysia really in deep shit. Again for this to happen is very small chance.world bank, imf, adb have been warning msia there is little room left to play in the event of a crisis with with such debt levels. well, if u say msia can take it, can take another 500bn, no diff, then there is nothing more to say. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 29 2013, 07:16 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 07:21 PM
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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 07:14 PM) Thats why i said. We still hav epf as a safeguard. I was imagining the cyprus incident happening here. And if it is that bad, out epf that is in trillions, can still save us. if it is about epf to save us...the suspicion is >60% of epf funds already loaned out to bn aligned outfits, i.e. cronies big and small with questionable performance. if the condo-cow thing is examplary, you can decide how much or what epf can or will do. one can dispel all this rumurs, but me, i like to err on my side to think there is already enough evidence that epf wun do ziltch except bailing out the greedy in a next crisis. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 07:22 PM |
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Jul 29 2013, 08:08 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 29 2013, 07:21 PM) if it is about epf to save us... Yes i understand. My thought d same, but opposition is almost half in d parliament, they cant use epf for their personal use anymore without anybody knowing it. Becuase any kind of wrong bailout signals will depress the market. Gov should know this. BNM cant play hanky panky, believe they will be stern because financial institution is govern by international law, with basel and stuff.the suspicion is >60% of epf funds already loaned out to bn aligned outfits, i.e. cronies big and small with questionable performance. if the condo-cow thing is examplary, you can decide how much or what epf can or will do. one can dispel all this rumurs, but me, i like to err on my side to think there is already enough evidence that epf wun do ziltch except bailing out the greedy in a next crisis. |
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Jul 30 2013, 10:35 AM
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2,293 posts Joined: Mar 2008 |
I m newbie in property....
People suggest government to raise interest rate to reduce speculation... But, then these people also mentioned that property buble is forming...[/B] Do rise of interest rate speeden up the property bubble ? Will our government do that ? It's a fact Malaysia household debt is increasing.(NEW HIGH) With the rise of interest rate, can they continue serve the debt ? Personally, I think property price now is insane... I really hope for a market adjustment. But, will market react the way I think.... I don't know... I don't hope property market to be collapsed, that means Malaysia in big trouble lo. Economy recession ?? Who wan this? |
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Jul 30 2013, 11:22 AM
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24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(moon yuen @ Jul 30 2013, 10:35 AM) I m newbie in property.... People suggest government to raise interest rate to reduce speculation... int rate rise of 0.5-1% won't do much to reduce speculation. incr rpgt back to 30% will. several new articles here to read on the "bubble" subject: http://www.kinibiz.com/story/issues/40319/...e-building.html about int rates, i think gomen is under great pressure to raise rates but that will have big consequences for everything, not just prop. tat's why been resisting. caught between a rock and a hard place. the trouble now rm is at 15 yr low against sgd, 3 yr low against usd, going lower against many other major curr. gomen debt borrowing costs going higher and higher. http://www.todayonline.com/business/ringgi...gapore-dollar-0 much of our food, among other essentials, is imported, how can people esp the low to mid income not suffer from skyrocketing food prices if the curr is weak? chicken also become luxury meat. still got money to buy house? |
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Jul 30 2013, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 29 2013, 06:50 PM) this has been said umpteen times, but seems nobody cares. LOL ya i can see that...and the rebuttal is always - msia is special, msia is diff, more rich people than poor. many a lot richer than u think, like or imagine (but debt keeps going up like mad, why?). even hawkers and teachers earn 10k pm. banks and oil&gas 30k pm. plus those in sg, shanghai, london, billions in bank accounts ready to buy. so, how can anyone not have moolah to buy anything? u must be lazy or and negative. feel like giving up? my colls were just talking about...if we dont buy now we will never be able to buy.... then i said, yes but must buy within budget, dun buy something u cant afford... but they looked at me like "wer got houses within budget these days...its normal to pay 700K for a house in semenyih. Want to get cheap house...still got in ipoh. old rundown Bungalow only few mil++" I was like |
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Jul 30 2013, 11:52 AM
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2,155 posts Joined: May 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM) Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down. oh i tot danaharta came to save the day back in 1998?This is to the fact like iceman said, we hav a different economic theory cant compare wit US. If ever interest rate went close to 0% here, i believe property investor would rejoice. And we still hav huge KWSP to bailout anybody, as what we went through 1998. There will never be the lehman brothers incident here. I tot there were few lehman brothers incidents back in 1998? They had to merge the banks .....i assumes it same as lehman brothers on a smaller scale.....haha KWSP....seriously? really.....hopefully then.. |
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Jul 30 2013, 11:56 AM
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21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 29 2013, 06:54 PM) This is to the fact like iceman said, we hav a different economic theory cant compare wit US. If ever interest rate went close to 0% here, i believe property investor would rejoice. And we still hav huge KWSP to bailout anybody, as what we went through 1998. There will never be the lehman brothers incident here. In other countries, car price is about 3 to 12 months of income and house price is about 7 years of household income. Most household debt in Malaysia are property, car and credit cards.Believe real inflation rate is higher than official inflation rate and the most effective way to curb inflation rate is to increase bank interest rate. If U.S. QE is tapering off, bank interest rate is almost certain will rise. High household debt is vulnerable to hike in bank interest rate. If real income doesn't keep up with inflation rate and there is a rise in interest rate, those with high household debt will face a double whammy. |
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Jul 30 2013, 11:57 AM
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What i can say is the malaysian media was very masterful in spinning issues back in 1997/98
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Jul 30 2013, 12:02 PM
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2,155 posts Joined: May 2005 |
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Jul 30 2013, 12:42 PM
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QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 30 2013, 12:02 PM) what was the real deal back then? It was a coming of age time for me as well but i do know there was more panic than what was alluded to in the press. One large firm (which i joined some years later) had to change major business strategies almost overnight to survive, rolling heads along the way. Yeah i did have friends whose parents called back from uni because business wasnt good anymore. The govt kept blaming the west for our self-induced problems and a large number of people bought that idea.Too young to know whats going on...just know few of my skoolfrens have to stop skool overnite coz parents went bankrupt....so sad. |
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Jul 30 2013, 12:53 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 30 2013, 11:52 AM) oh i tot danaharta came to save the day back in 1998? Yeah. I am talking epf can still be used, gov can just say..yeah we will use epf to nationalize banks and all income from the bank after that will be rakyats income. Same as what happened in US. EPF fund is huge. Cyprus slash deposits in banks to save their country. And we hav EPF. I tot there were few lehman brothers incidents back in 1998? They had to merge the banks .....i assumes it same as lehman brothers on a smaller scale.....haha KWSP....seriously? really.....hopefully then.. US admitted that they made a mistake by not bailing out lehman. Watched "too big to fail" movie. |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:01 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 30 2013, 11:56 AM) In other countries, car price is about 3 to 12 months of income and house price is about 7 years of household income. Most household debt in Malaysia are property, car and credit cards. Yeah malaysia is different. House is actually quite comparable but cars are just crazy. Instead or complaining about property, all of us should band together and complain about car price in malaysia.Believe real inflation rate is higher than official inflation rate and the most effective way to curb inflation rate is to increase bank interest rate. If U.S. QE is tapering off, bank interest rate is almost certain will rise. High household debt is vulnerable to hike in bank interest rate. If real income doesn't keep up with inflation rate and there is a rise in interest rate, those with high household debt will face a double whammy. I was sitting having bukak puase with frens las week , talking about cars. One saying he wante to buy 200k worth of car. Yup, never complain about cars. Malaysians hav accepted this. Just complain about property. We should change the peoples mindset. Cheap cars can help everybody. |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:04 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
Real Estate Home Appreciation - Last 12 Months
Last Updated: 7/17/2013 Home prices continued to skyrocket all around the country in May. The Northeast saw its median price rise to $269,600, up from $245,100 and up 12.3 percent from the year before. Home prices in the Midwest increased to a median of $159,800 in May, up from $148,700 in April. Compared with May 2012, the median there was up 8.2 percent. In the South, the median home price rose to $183,300 from $167,800 in April and jumped 15.0 percent from the previous year. The median home price in the West climbed to $276,400 in May from $265,400 the month before. It was up 19.9 percent from one year earlier. |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:09 PM
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21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 01:04 PM) Real Estate Home Appreciation - Last 12 Months Comparatively, landed property in Malaysia is more expensive than in the U.S, means higher standard living than the U.S Last Updated: 7/17/2013 Home prices continued to skyrocket all around the country in May. The Northeast saw its median price rise to $269,600, up from $245,100 and up 12.3 percent from the year before. Home prices in the Midwest increased to a median of $159,800 in May, up from $148,700 in April. Compared with May 2012, the median there was up 8.2 percent. In the South, the median home price rose to $183,300 from $167,800 in April and jumped 15.0 percent from the previous year. The median home price in the West climbed to $276,400 in May from $265,400 the month before. It was up 19.9 percent from one year earlier. |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:15 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
The above article refers to housing price in the US.
Now i am doing car comparison. Bear with me here. Let's say a house in US is 200k usd. A toyoto camry is around 20k usd. You need to exchange 10 toyota for 1 house. Let's say malaysia. A house is 500k RM. A toyoto camry is 100k RM. You need to exchange 5 toyota for 1 house. You guys see what i am getting here? People still buy cars even cars in malaysia are exorbitantly priced. And foe expat who wants to live in malaysia as 2nd housing scheme. Goverment of malaysia hav this policy that this expat can buy car in malaysia tax free. Can u believe it? They like to torture their own citizens but the gwailos can have it cheap. Our government are just idiots. This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 30 2013, 01:19 PM |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:18 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 30 2013, 01:09 PM) Comparatively, landed property in Malaysia is more expensive than in the U.S, means higher standard living than the U.S I think this is the whole of US. If you want to compare klang valley, then maybe u hav to compate with new york. And new york prices are crazy. You guys can google it urself.I mean u hav to in malaysia, we still hav affordable ones in kedah, kelantan, terengganu etc etc.. |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:22 PM
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21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 01:15 PM) The above article refers to housing price in the US. Or there is room for house price to double to worth 10 Toyota!Now i am doing car comparison. Bear with me here. Let's say a house in US is 200k usd. A toyoto camry is around 20k usd. You need to exchange 10 toyota for 1 house. Let's say malaysia. A house is 500k RM. A toyoto camry is 100k RM. You need to exchange 5 toyota for 1 house. You guys see what i am getting here? People still buy cars even cars in malaysia are exorbitantly priced. |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:38 PM
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2,155 posts Joined: May 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 12:53 PM) Yeah. I am talking epf can still be used, gov can just say..yeah we will use epf to nationalize banks and all income from the bank after that will be rakyats income. Same as what happened in US. EPF fund is huge. Cyprus slash deposits in banks to save their country. And we hav EPF. if epf comes n save the day and lets say sailang all $$$ in there...who going save us when we retire (or the current ones that are going to retire)? US admitted that they made a mistake by not bailing out lehman. Watched "too big to fail" movie. Btw i tot epf $$ cannot simply use geh? |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:41 PM
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3,833 posts Joined: Oct 2006 From: Shah Alam |
you can always buy 2nd hand card under 20k. you have the choice to do that. If still cannot afford one can buy motobike. pay 4k installment for 10 years.
But do you have a choice to buy a house say under 100k?. No because we cannot find this price anymore. developers also seems only build and targetting high end market. Now 1000psf seem to be the normal price for the developers. So i dont think cars price is the issue now. The issue is the house price |
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Jul 30 2013, 01:42 PM
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2,155 posts Joined: May 2005 |
QUOTE(Nomos @ Jul 30 2013, 12:42 PM) It was a coming of age time for me as well but i do know there was more panic than what was alluded to in the press. One large firm (which i joined some years later) had to change major business strategies almost overnight to survive, rolling heads along the way. Yeah i did have friends whose parents called back from uni because business wasnt good anymore. The govt kept blaming the west for our self-induced problems and a large number of people bought that idea. Thankie for the info! |
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Jul 30 2013, 02:32 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jul 30 2013, 01:38 PM) if epf comes n save the day and lets say sailang all $$$ in there...who going save us when we retire (or the current ones that are going to retire)? Of course cannot but if gov wants we cant do much and if it there is no choice, what to do.Btw i tot epf $$ cannot simply use geh? |
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Jul 30 2013, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jul 30 2013, 01:41 PM) you can always buy 2nd hand card under 20k. you have the choice to do that. If still cannot afford one can buy motobike. pay 4k installment for 10 years. you have a valid point hereBut do you have a choice to buy a house say under 100k?. No because we cannot find this price anymore. developers also seems only build and targetting high end market. Now 1000psf seem to be the normal price for the developers. So i dont think cars price is the issue now. The issue is the house price |
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Jul 30 2013, 02:45 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jul 30 2013, 01:41 PM) you can always buy 2nd hand card under 20k. you have the choice to do that. If still cannot afford one can buy motobike. pay 4k installment for 10 years. Car loan forms a bulk of household debts. A used car for 20k is still expensive when in US we can get for a couple of thousand. Remember how much did sam witwicki bought bumblebee in transformers 1? U think we can get such car in malaysia at dat price? But do you have a choice to buy a house say under 100k?. No because we cannot find this price anymore. developers also seems only build and targetting high end market. Now 1000psf seem to be the normal price for the developers. So i dont think cars price is the issue now. The issue is the house price And lots of malaysians do buy car 1st hand. And i hav given example of a 100k rundown flat in d middle of KL that many younsters dont want to buy. There are choices of flats at 100k 600sq ft. Check back my past posts. I believe car price is an issue. People go bankrupt because of this. cannot pay for their car more than cannot pay for the house. I mean thats waht i see from the list of bankruptcy reason, anybody can prove me wrong? An excerpt from an article Malaysia Insolvency Department (MID) state director Zalina Yacob said yesterday that the main cause for bankruptcy was failure to fulfil hire-purchase agreements. Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/05/16/24.../#ixzz2aVbX1Z7b |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:10 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
House prices at any point in time, like that of any other asset with a built in cycle, depends largely on irrational sentiment and emotion. Fundamentals only tell you what the price OUGHT TO BE, not what the price WILL BE at any given point in time. Fundamentals in the US were largely constant, but the price for certain houses fell as much as 70% during the crash, way below the cost price of the house, and way lower than the fundamentals would indicate. Sentiment is a fickle b*tch, both on the way up, and on the way down.
What we are seeing in Malaysia is a newfound positive public sentiment towards purchasing housing at the highest possible end of affordability, and this is encouraged by prolonged historically low interest rates and a sustained period of consistent outsized gains, which has led to, rightly or wrongly, a perception among many ordinary Malaysians of reduced/zero risk, guaranteed outsized returns and a fear of being priced out in the future. How many Malaysians who hold millions worth of property and mortgage debt are invested in other asset classes? So long as this sentiment lasts, many ordinary Malaysians will continue to bet their next 35 years of earnings on houses which they can barely afford, fundamentals be damned. Again though, sentiment is fickle, and I think there is a relative lack of sophistication in the average Malaysian investor who tends to decide based on limited anecdotal experience instead of statistics and dispassionate macro analysis. Such investors are just as quickly inclined towards fear on the way down as they are to greed on the way up. I have a theory that the mentality of those who disregard macro analysis is analagous to the mentality of those going to a casino, or those buying lottery tickets. Let me elaborate. Statistical data and mathematical analysis necessarily lead to the conclusion that an average person who gambles at a casino is more likely to lose money than gain. Logically therefore, nobody in their right mind should go to a casino. However, there are necessarily people who have had personal experience winning money, and due to the logical fallacy called hasty generalisation, they will tell you that your theory is wrong based on their own limited experience. (i.e. I have won the last 5 times, and my friend has won the last 5 times, and his friend has won the last 5 times, and therefore I believe I will continue to win) There are those who read, understood and agree with your data will tell you that they are exceptionally skilled or lucky (i.e. I am different, I am special, your theory does not apply to me). Ultimately though, regardless of all the theorizing and discussion the casinos are still packed with very wealthy and educated people, and the casino owner laughs all the way to the bank. Caveat: Macro analysis at the layman level at least will not help you predict the future, and any prediction made by experts with any degree of specificity is usually wrong. Asset markets are inherently unpredictable, and the rules of the game may change at any time with a simple announcement of a new government policy, whether here, China, the US or elsewhere. Nonetheless, my analysis leads me to the conclusion that based on current conditions, people, especially the overleveraged, should start diversifying away (not exiting completely of course) from the property market which is looking increasingly vulnerable. |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:14 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 02:45 PM) I believe car price is an issue. People go bankrupt because of this. cannot pay for their car more than cannot pay for the house. I mean thats waht i see from the list of bankruptcy reason, anybody can prove me wrong? I do agree with you on that car prices are stupid. Nevertheless, it is a false comparison. Mortgage debt is seldom a cause of bankruptcy during a rising market, as the debtor can simply sell off his house for a price higher than his mortgage debt in lieu of defaulting. On the other hand, in a falling market, your house depreciates in the same way as your car. A rising market obscures the flaws, and a falling market exposes them all. That's precisely why nobody knew about the dangers of the subprime problem in the US - it simply wasn't leading to significant levels of defaults until prices stopped appreciating.An excerpt from an article Malaysia Insolvency Department (MID) state director Zalina Yacob said yesterday that the main cause for bankruptcy was failure to fulfil hire-purchase agreements. Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/05/16/24.../#ixzz2aVbX1Z7b |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:19 PM
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Hire purchase bankruptcies my guess is due to loose lending practices of banks, and not much to do with car prices per se. Many lower income workers aspire to own cars at great sacrifice to quality of life (an attitude that is not sustainable in the long run). Again my guess - a large bulk of bankruptcies comprise this group, who are also not likely to own a mortgage or property in the first place. So its not exactly fair to compare house purchasing habits to car purchasing statistics imho.
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Jul 30 2013, 03:25 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 30 2013, 03:14 PM) I do agree with you on that car prices are stupid. Nevertheless, it is a false comparison. Mortgage debt is seldom a cause of bankruptcy during a rising market, as the debtor can simply sell off his house for a price higher than his mortgage debt in lieu of defaulting. On the other hand, in a falling market, your house depreciates in the same way as your car. A rising market obscures the flaws, and a falling market exposes them all. That's precisely why nobody knew about the dangers of the subprime problem in the US - it simply wasn't leading to significant levels of defaults until prices stopped appreciating. Correct, but if car price are cheaper then probaby a bulk of your income can be put on property. And the reason subprime reason is more complicated than just a simple defaulting. They call it subprime because they are giving out people who cannot afford to buy. In Malaysia that is not the case. Controls are there to manage these. We can go many angles here, but believe evrybody made up their minds already. And there are cheap rundown homes out there, look around, you'll find it. It is just that people want to buy a Ferrari instead of a rundown proton. |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:28 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Nomos @ Jul 30 2013, 03:19 PM) Hire purchase bankruptcies my guess is due to loose lending practices of banks, and not much to do with car prices per se. Many lower income workers aspire to own cars at great sacrifice to quality of life (an attitude that is not sustainable in the long run). Again my guess - a large bulk of bankruptcies comprise this group, who are also not likely to own a mortgage or property in the first place. So its not exactly fair to compare house purchasing habits to car purchasing statistics imho. It doesnt matter if loose lending is the case, if they were cheap, we will always have extra disposable income that can go to other places. |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:28 PM
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just to share
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/07/qe.html the chart basically shows the impact of the begining of QE tappering (Early Stage).....Bonds yield started to rise, Share prices started to correct and property prices started to adjust. Once QE confirm exiting the market, bond, share, property prices will see major correction Last stage, after the draining of QE.....interest rate will hike......this is when Gold, Property, stocks market will be hitting hard.....bear market. If US is draining the QE in early 2014 coupled with the oversupply of high rise.....i think property correction may come earlier than expected. Now we fear the recovery of US...... |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:35 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 03:28 PM) It doesnt matter if loose lending is the case, if they were cheap, we will always have extra disposable income that can go to other places. I know, and i too always believe car prices are distorting our disposable income in a bad way. However knowing malaysians, if car prices are cheaper they'll stretch to the max (with the current lending system) and buy the nicest one they can |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:39 PM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 30 2013, 03:10 PM) House prices at any point in time, like that of any other asset with a built in cycle, depends largely on irrational sentiment and emotion. Fundamentals only tell you what the price OUGHT TO BE, not what the price WILL BE at any given point in time. Fundamentals in the US were largely constant, but the price for certain houses fell as much as 70% during the crash, way below the cost price of the house, and way lower than the fundamentals would indicate. Sentiment is a fickle b*tch, both on the way up, and on the way down. Well said What we are seeing in Malaysia is a newfound positive public sentiment towards purchasing housing at the highest possible end of affordability, and this is encouraged by prolonged historically low interest rates and a sustained period of consistent outsized gains, which has led to, rightly or wrongly, a perception among many ordinary Malaysians of reduced/zero risk, guaranteed outsized returns and a fear of being priced out in the future. How many Malaysians who hold millions worth of property and mortgage debt are invested in other asset classes? So long as this sentiment lasts, many ordinary Malaysians will continue to bet their next 35 years of earnings on houses which they can barely afford, fundamentals be damned. Again though, sentiment is fickle, and I think there is a relative lack of sophistication in the average Malaysian investor who tends to decide based on limited anecdotal experience instead of statistics and dispassionate macro analysis. Such investors are just as quickly inclined towards fear on the way down as they are to greed on the way up. I have a theory that the mentality of those who disregard macro analysis is analagous to the mentality of those going to a casino, or those buying lottery tickets. Let me elaborate. Statistical data and mathematical analysis necessarily lead to the conclusion that an average person who gambles at a casino is more likely to lose money than gain. Logically therefore, nobody in their right mind should go to a casino. However, there are necessarily people who have had personal experience winning money, and due to the logical fallacy called hasty generalisation, they will tell you that your theory is wrong based on their own limited experience. (i.e. I have won the last 5 times, and my friend has won the last 5 times, and his friend has won the last 5 times, and therefore I believe I will continue to win) There are those who read, understood and agree with your data will tell you that they are exceptionally skilled or lucky (i.e. I am different, I am special, your theory does not apply to me). Ultimately though, regardless of all the theorizing and discussion the casinos are still packed with very wealthy and educated people, and the casino owner laughs all the way to the bank. Caveat: Macro analysis at the layman level at least will not help you predict the future, and any prediction made by experts with any degree of specificity is usually wrong. Asset markets are inherently unpredictable, and the rules of the game may change at any time with a simple announcement of a new government policy, whether here, China, the US or elsewhere. Nonetheless, my analysis leads me to the conclusion that based on current conditions, people, especially the overleveraged, should start diversifying away (not exiting completely of course) from the property market which is looking increasingly vulnerable. |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:40 PM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
QUOTE(teohkpin @ Jul 30 2013, 03:28 PM) just to share Seriously, I been thinking that it could be the free flow fund moving back to US. As with the end of QE, investor would like to hands on US dollar.http://www.danielloh.com/2013/07/qe.html the chart basically shows the impact of the begining of QE tappering (Early Stage).....Bonds yield started to rise, Share prices started to correct and property prices started to adjust. Once QE confirm exiting the market, bond, share, property prices will see major correction Last stage, after the draining of QE.....interest rate will hike......this is when Gold, Property, stocks market will be hitting hard.....bear market. If US is draining the QE in early 2014 coupled with the oversupply of high rise.....i think property correction may come earlier than expected. Now we fear the recovery of US...... |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:41 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 03:25 PM) Correct, but if car price are cheaper then probaby a bulk of your income can be put on property. And the reason subprime reason is more complicated than just a simple defaulting. They call it subprime because they are giving out people who cannot afford to buy. In Malaysia that is not the case. Controls are there to manage these. We can go many angles here, but believe evrybody made up their minds already. And there are cheap rundown homes out there, look around, you'll find it. It is just that people want to buy a Ferrari instead of a rundown proton. Agreed that we do not have an apparent subprime problem. (Some would argue that there are others kinds of hanky panky which would go on in Bolehland, but that's pure speculation) The only issue is that the ability of property buyers to repay their loans is not tested in a rising market, so the financial resilience of property buyers cannot be determined simply from current mortgage default rates. My angle is that I'm not comfortable making up my mind in this market of ours, and nobody else should be. |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:43 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 03:25 PM) Correct, but if car price are cheaper then probaby a bulk of your income can be put on property. And the reason subprime reason is more complicated than just a simple defaulting. They call it subprime because they are giving out people who cannot afford to buy. In Malaysia that is not the case. Controls are there to manage these. We can go many angles here, but believe evrybody made up their minds already. And there are cheap rundown homes out there, look around, you'll find it. It is just that people want to buy a Ferrari instead of a rundown proton. Why do u think thats nt the case in Malaysia? There was once nt long ago, just couple of months before GE a couple of banks offered loan at 90% margin up to 50-70%% of my gross income... If I accepted the loan, I would definitely end up eating roti daily.. Luckily the deal fell through though... BNM have to play hardball on this matter n should constantly monitor these so called "controls".. I am afraid there will be more bankruptcy cases if the interest rate is increased, as I can observe that there has been irregularities in bank practices which allowed too many people to leverage on cheap credit and push it to the max.. The slightest increase could push them out of window n we need to bear in mind, it's easier to sell a car but nt a house.. House transaction takes a very long time, thus for someone to bail out within a short period of time is quite challenging.. Luckily not many lock-in type of loans anymore.. This post has been edited by all blacks: Jul 30 2013, 03:44 PM |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:48 PM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(teohkpin @ Jul 30 2013, 03:28 PM) Once QE confirm exiting the market, bond, share, property prices will see major correction When recession hit the US in 2007/8, Malaysia was not effected. Few people will buy the idea that tapering of U.S. QE will have an impact on local property price or demand.Last stage, after the draining of QE.....interest rate will hike......this is when Gold, Property, stocks market will be hitting hard.....bear market. If US is draining the QE in early 2014 coupled with the oversupply of high rise.....i think property correction may come earlier than expected. Now we fear the recovery of US...... |
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Jul 30 2013, 03:49 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
As long as banks do what they do house prices will keep rising...
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Jul 30 2013, 03:58 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(Steven83 @ Jul 30 2013, 03:40 PM) Seriously, I been thinking that it could be the free flow fund moving back to US. As with the end of QE, investor would like to hands on US dollar. It's funny, all of this. The 2007/2008 crisis was paradoxically good for our asset markets, not just because of the investor pullout in developed markets, but also because of their stimulus money which had no where to go. As I recall, the asset bubbles which led to the Asian Financial Crisis was in part due to Japanese monetary easing in the aftermath of their own property bubble back in the 80s. Deja vu anyone? Most people don't understand this relationship, and think that our surviving the 2007/2008 crisis is proof of our resilience. It isn't. It's the magic of fiat money.We are more prepared for a crisis now than back in 1997/98, but I remember being in Singapore where interest rates were at a stupid ~0% even though inflation was hitting 5%, simply because of the hugely profitable carry trade between the USD and the SGD. My colleagues were actually feeling forced into buying property as mortgage rates at 2% were lower than inflation at 5%. In that period, I note that Singapore, Indonesian and Filipino asset markets actually did even better than us. While the withdrawal of stimulus monies is expected to hurt our asset markets by restricting credit growth, I'm still of the view that the most likely scenario is that any fallout can be controlled and contained because of strong government financials, the fact that the withdrawal of QE is expected to be gradual, and I foresee Japan, GB and Europe to continue easing for a while. This post has been edited by Anon_1986: Jul 30 2013, 04:00 PM |
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Jul 30 2013, 04:01 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 30 2013, 03:43 PM) Why do u think thats nt the case in Malaysia? There was once nt long ago, just couple of months before GE a couple of banks offered loan at 90% margin up to 50-70%% of my gross income... If I accepted the loan, I would definitely end up eating roti daily.. Luckily the deal fell through though... BNM have to play hardball on this matter n should constantly monitor these so called "controls".. I am afraid there will be more bankruptcy cases if the interest rate is increased, as I can observe that there has been irregularities in bank practices which allowed too many people to leverage on cheap credit and push it to the max.. The slightest increase could push them out of window n we need to bear in mind, it's easier to sell a car but nt a house.. House transaction takes a very long time, thus for someone to bail out within a short period of time is quite challenging.. Luckily not many lock-in type of loans anymore.. Well that is actually not bad all blacks. But US case was much worst, they believe that house will just increase that you dont need to go and prove to them how much you actually make. some banks just say, o u wanna buy a house? Ok sign here and your loan is approved. If u hav trouble getting loan becuase of ur income is low. we can give u loan but at a high interest. That was the practice in US and i think UK too. At least malaysia check your income. I feel it coz it was so hard for me to get the second loan approve. But i know i can pay up. |
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Jul 30 2013, 04:25 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 30 2013, 04:01 PM) Well that is actually not bad all blacks. But US case was much worst, they believe that house will just increase that you dont need to go and prove to them how much you actually make. some banks just say, o u wanna buy a house? Ok sign here and your loan is approved. If u hav trouble getting loan becuase of ur income is low. we can give u loan but at a high interest. That was the practice in US and i think UK too. At least malaysia check your income. I feel it coz it was so hard for me to get the second loan approve. But i know i can pay up. Thats crazy.. |
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Jul 30 2013, 05:29 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
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Jul 30 2013, 05:39 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
This report doesn't sound so convincing, RPT-Fitch revises Malaysia's outlook to negative; affirms IDRs at 'A-'/'A' ...
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Jul 30 2013, 06:04 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 30 2013, 05:39 PM) This report doesn't sound so convincing, RPT-Fitch revises Malaysia's outlook to negative; affirms IDRs at 'A-'/'A' ... no surprise... reducing exports incl to slowing china, lowest cpo prices, electronics not doing well, no serious interest to incr food production, increasing debt, incr consumption, low interest rates, cont'd money outflow, more cash handouts, bigger leakages than ever, etc. etc...but build build build, more high rise, more malls, more elephants. if all that can get better rating, there'll be no poor nation on earth. this excerpt appears troubling... The state-run Employees' Provident Fund held 28.8% of Malaysian government securities at end-March 2013. The rising role of non-resident investors points to growing exposure to global investor risk appetite, but Fitch views strengths in Malaysia's external finances as a buffer against volatility. The impact of heightened market tensions on Malaysia's government debt market since June has been mild compared with some regional and rated peers, so far. Malaysia's credit fundamentals are weak by 'A' range standards. Its average income level of USD10,400 in 2012 was closer to the 'BBB' range median of USD11,300 than the 'A' median of USD18,600. Its overall level of development and standards of governance are also considered weak for its 'A-' rating. Fitch's Banking System Indicator of 'bbb' suggests the standalone strength of Malaysian banks does not weigh on the credit profile. However, Malaysia's high level of private sector leverage is a risk from a credit perspective. Credit to the private sector reached 118% of GDP at end-2012, above the 'A' median 94%. Fitch projects the divergence from the 'A' median will widen out to 2015. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 30 2013, 06:20 PM |
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Jul 30 2013, 08:52 PM
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219 posts Joined: Sep 2012 |
I was wondering if the weakening ringgit means that one should invest or stay invested in properties as a hedge for further inflation. Am my thinking right? Why should property investors sell their props and keep RM which is depreciating?
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Jul 30 2013, 08:53 PM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
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Jul 30 2013, 09:59 PM
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327 posts Joined: Jul 2008 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 30 2013, 03:10 PM) House prices at any point in time, like that of any other asset with a built in cycle, depends largely on irrational sentiment and emotion. Fundamentals only tell you what the price OUGHT TO BE, not what the price WILL BE at any given point in time. Fundamentals in the US were largely constant, but the price for certain houses fell as much as 70% during the crash, way below the cost price of the house, and way lower than the fundamentals would indicate. Sentiment is a fickle b*tch, both on the way up, and on the way down. Very well said. Especially the 'gamble in casino' example. What we are seeing in Malaysia is a newfound positive public sentiment towards purchasing housing at the highest possible end of affordability, and this is encouraged by prolonged historically low interest rates and a sustained period of consistent outsized gains, which has led to, rightly or wrongly, a perception among many ordinary Malaysians of reduced/zero risk, guaranteed outsized returns and a fear of being priced out in the future. How many Malaysians who hold millions worth of property and mortgage debt are invested in other asset classes? So long as this sentiment lasts, many ordinary Malaysians will continue to bet their next 35 years of earnings on houses which they can barely afford, fundamentals be damned. Again though, sentiment is fickle, and I think there is a relative lack of sophistication in the average Malaysian investor who tends to decide based on limited anecdotal experience instead of statistics and dispassionate macro analysis. Such investors are just as quickly inclined towards fear on the way down as they are to greed on the way up. I have a theory that the mentality of those who disregard macro analysis is analagous to the mentality of those going to a casino, or those buying lottery tickets. Let me elaborate. Statistical data and mathematical analysis necessarily lead to the conclusion that an average person who gambles at a casino is more likely to lose money than gain. Logically therefore, nobody in their right mind should go to a casino. However, there are necessarily people who have had personal experience winning money, and due to the logical fallacy called hasty generalisation, they will tell you that your theory is wrong based on their own limited experience. (i.e. I have won the last 5 times, and my friend has won the last 5 times, and his friend has won the last 5 times, and therefore I believe I will continue to win) There are those who read, understood and agree with your data will tell you that they are exceptionally skilled or lucky (i.e. I am different, I am special, your theory does not apply to me). Ultimately though, regardless of all the theorizing and discussion the casinos are still packed with very wealthy and educated people, and the casino owner laughs all the way to the bank. Caveat: Macro analysis at the layman level at least will not help you predict the future, and any prediction made by experts with any degree of specificity is usually wrong. Asset markets are inherently unpredictable, and the rules of the game may change at any time with a simple announcement of a new government policy, whether here, China, the US or elsewhere. Nonetheless, my analysis leads me to the conclusion that based on current conditions, people, especially the overleveraged, should start diversifying away (not exiting completely of course) from the property market which is looking increasingly vulnerable. |
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Jul 30 2013, 10:14 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Jul 30 2013, 10:18 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 30 2013, 03:43 PM) Why do u think thats nt the case in Malaysia? There was once nt long ago, just couple of months before GE a couple of banks offered loan at 90% margin up to 50-70%% of my gross income... If I accepted the loan, I would definitely end up eating roti daily.. Luckily the deal fell through though... BNM have to play hardball on this matter n should constantly monitor these so called "controls".. Your not telling the whole story. 50% - 70% is a huge margin.. and within this 20% margin.. if you take up the loan you will makan roti? are you talking about couple of hundreds? such variance should be huge and if it's too minimal that it forces you to makan roti.. then I have nothing much to say.I am afraid there will be more bankruptcy cases if the interest rate is increased, as I can observe that there has been irregularities in bank practices which allowed too many people to leverage on cheap credit and push it to the max.. The slightest increase could push them out of window n we need to bear in mind, it's easier to sell a car but nt a house.. House transaction takes a very long time, thus for someone to bail out within a short period of time is quite challenging.. Luckily not many lock-in type of loans anymore.. |
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Jul 30 2013, 10:30 PM
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902 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(Martinis @ Jul 30 2013, 08:52 PM) I was wondering if the weakening ringgit means that one should invest or stay invested in properties as a hedge for further inflation. Am my thinking right? Why should property investors sell their props and keep RM which is depreciating? My 1.5 cents:The weakening ringgit could be hedged through local property investment provided the property price does not weaken more than the currency. In order for property not to be weaker than the currency, the cost of building has to be increased (due to weakenning currency) but in the same time the demand has to be high too -- this could also means purchase power of the target property buyers has to increase (although currency has weakend). Therefore, it is still very much depends on the local economy. The fundamental is still demand Vs supply..... in a situation of weaken currency, would demand > or < than supply in the types of property we are investing? Perhaps, if a person does not have much confidence on this "boleh-land", should consider holding international asset (property in other countries) Or stocks (unit trusts too) invest in other countries, precious metals (gold / silver) which is insulated from local currency issue, etc........ Other daigos -- do share your thoughts too on "how to preserve our assests" Or "hedge on inflation".... |
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Jul 30 2013, 10:39 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(XtraLeoGecko @ Jul 30 2013, 10:30 PM) My 1.5 cents: at the same time that would also lead more foreigner purchasing our properties.. have you wonder why the government had not increase the cap where property above 1m or perhaps 1.2m would only be eligible for foreigners? perhaps our government is planning to keep those foreign investors in our country as well.The weakening ringgit could be hedged through local property investment provided the property price does not weaken more than the currency. In order for property not to be weaker than the currency, the cost of building has to be increased (due to weakenning currency) but in the same time the demand has to be high too -- this could also means purchase power of the target property buyers has to increase (although currency has weakend). Therefore, it is still very much depends on the local economy. The fundamental is still demand Vs supply..... in a situation of weaken currency, would demand > or < than supply in the types of property we are investing? Perhaps, if a person does not have much confidence on this "boleh-land", should consider holding international asset (property in other countries) Or stocks (unit trusts too) invest in other countries, precious metals (gold / silver) which is insulated from local currency issue, etc........ Other daigos -- do share your thoughts too on "how to preserve our assests" Or "hedge on inflation".... |
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Jul 31 2013, 12:59 AM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 30 2013, 10:39 PM) at the same time that would also lead more foreigner purchasing our properties.. have you wonder why the government had not increase the cap where property above 1m or perhaps 1.2m would only be eligible for foreigners? perhaps our government is planning to keep those foreign investors in our country as well. Singaporeans, Thais, Indonesians, Chinese, Arabs, Iranians, Russians, Brazilians, etc are all queuing and waiting to snap up property in Malaysia. |
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Jul 31 2013, 07:32 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 31 2013, 12:59 AM) Singaporeans, Thais, Indonesians, Chinese, Arabs, Iranians, Russians, Brazilians, etc are all queuing and waiting to snap up property in Malaysia. other country i cant be too sure but looking at KL alone.. it seems like the middle easterners are really filling up alot of the shop lots down town.. dont see much chinese food anymore in KL. |
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Jul 31 2013, 10:47 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...2#axzz2aaSg7UHs
For those who overlooked or missed this article |
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Jul 31 2013, 10:57 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
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Jul 31 2013, 11:11 AM
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551 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 31 2013, 10:57 AM) Means the gomen is taking steps to prevent the "crash". No more worry about "crash", right? |
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Jul 31 2013, 11:56 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(pobox @ Jul 31 2013, 11:11 AM) that article is just some fresh comments, probably prompted by yesterday's fitch downgrade.bursa taking a knock today, rm continues to slide. will bnm raise rates soon enough? |
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Jul 31 2013, 11:59 AM
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Senior Member
2,155 posts Joined: May 2005 |
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Jul 31 2013, 12:13 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 30 2013, 10:18 PM) Your not telling the whole story. 50% - 70% is a huge margin.. and within this 20% margin.. if you take up the loan you will makan roti? are you talking about couple of hundreds? such variance should be huge and if it's too minimal that it forces you to makan roti.. then I have nothing much to say. What I meant was, some bank willing to offer up to 50% of my gross salary n some were up to 70% of my gross salary.. If I accepted the one with 70% of my gross salary I sure makan roti la.. If my gross salary is 5K, juz imagine paying up to 3.5K housing loan.. Remember I still havent include my car monthly installment.. Another RM600.. Do u think u can have a decent life? if u can then bravo.. |
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Jul 31 2013, 12:15 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 31 2013, 11:56 AM) that article is just some fresh comments, probably prompted by yesterday's fitch downgrade. Previously Std Charted indicated increase of interest rate around Nov... but if current situation continues, should be sometime soon...bursa taking a knock today, rm continues to slide. will bnm raise rates soon enough? |
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Jul 31 2013, 12:29 PM
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Senior Member
3,833 posts Joined: Oct 2006 From: Shah Alam |
bnm maintains the opr in the last meeting. next meeting will be in september
This post has been edited by kurtkob78: Jul 31 2013, 12:49 PM |
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Jul 31 2013, 12:35 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 12:13 PM) What I meant was, some bank willing to offer up to 50% of my gross salary n some were up to 70% of my gross salary.. If I accepted the one with 70% of my gross salary I sure makan roti la.. If my gross salary is 5K, juz imagine paying up to 3.5K housing loan.. Remember I still havent include my car monthly installment.. Another RM600.. Do u think u can have a decent life? if u can then bravo.. I believe your story about this banks 70% margin is in your total loan, which includes the car loan too. Right? That 3.5k should have include your car loan. I mean bank checks your total loan not just the loan on the house that you are applying.And your story is if the salary is 5k. If the salary is 10k, then you hav balance 3k. If salary 20k, then balance 6k. A reasonable margin by all accounts. And seriously, if you are at 5k salary, who would want to buy a house that has to pay 3.5k monthly? |
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Jul 31 2013, 01:30 PM
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Junior Member
352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
Banks still havent came back to me for my second housing loan. Its already a week.
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Jul 31 2013, 01:37 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 31 2013, 12:35 PM) I believe your story about this banks 70% margin is in your total loan, which includes the car loan too. Right? That 3.5k should have include your car loan. I mean bank checks your total loan not just the loan on the house that you are applying. Exactly I don't think his telling the whole story. Adding on shouldn't one be finding something which his own head can wear? RM3.5k monthly you are talking about financing a 650k home loan.. Now that's not too advisable for someone who is merely making rm5k.And your story is if the salary is 5k. If the salary is 10k, then you hav balance 3k. If salary 20k, then balance 6k. A reasonable margin by all accounts. And seriously, if you are at 5k salary, who would want to buy a house that has to pay 3.5k monthly? |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:12 PM
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Junior Member
252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(Martinis @ Jul 30 2013, 08:52 PM) I was wondering if the weakening ringgit means that one should invest or stay invested in properties as a hedge for further inflation. Am my thinking right? Why should property investors sell their props and keep RM which is depreciating? Let me take a shot at your query. Any asset other than cash is theoretically a hedge against a weakening currency and inflation. However, I'd find blue chips and foreign equities a better hedge than properties, because equities are linked to profits, whereas properties are linked to debt. Here's why I think that way:Salaries lag inflation, and inflation lags interest rates which are increased to combat inflation. Ergo, property if financed largely by mortgage debt is subject to an anti-goldilocks zone, where interest rates rise before inflation falls, and before salaries rise, leading to a spending squeeze among those who are highly leveraged. If inflation is high and currency is depreciating: - Prices of goods = increasing - Salaries = lagging inflation (salaries are still paid in Ringgit) Therefore: Company profits = matching inflation (because prices increase faster than salaries, and because currency depreciation makes exports more lucrative in Ringgit terms) Therefore: Disposable household income = decreasing Assuming then that central bank then raises interest rates to combat inflation and shore up the currency: - Interest rates = increasing - Mortgage payments = increasing Therefore: Disposable household income = decreasing => increasing defaults on mortgage debt, putting pressure on housing prices On that basis I'd prefer (export based) blue chips over properties, largely because the level of mortgage debt held by households currently indicates that the market as a whole is very vulnerable to interest rate hikes. Singapore is an interesting case study for the relationship between property, mortgage debt and inflation because as a small economy that imports everything it consumes, the government is able to inflation using exchange rates instead of interest rates. Hence, over the past 4 years, property has been a very good hedge against inflation in Singapore because interest rates have not risen to combat sky high inflation. When inflation rises, Singapore uses USD to purchase SGD, allowing the SGD to appreciate, thereby making imports cheaper, and this serves to control inflation without having to increase interest rates. On the other hand, interest rates have been floating at ~0% in Singapore because of the profitable carry trade between the USD and the SGD, where US investors borrow money in USD at ~0% to put in Singapore in the expectation (announced by MAS) that the SGD will rise. This has been a substantial contributor to the Singapore property boom in the past 4 years. Hence, property and mortgage debt would be a fantastic hedge against inflation so long as interest rates do not rise in response to inflation. The key question then becomes, will interest rates in Malaysia rise in response to our impending inflation and currency depreciation? BNM traditionally uses interest rates to control inflation, so more likely yes. However, BNM has the discretion to copy Singapore by using reserves instead of interest rates to control inflation. What BNM will decide to do is a question for political scientists and psychics with their crystal balls. |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:28 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 31 2013, 02:12 PM) Let me take a shot at your query. Any asset other than cash is theoretically a hedge against a weakening currency and inflation. However, I'd find blue chips and foreign equities a better hedge than properties, because equities are linked to profits, whereas properties are linked to debt. Here's why I think that way: Anon good one however there are a few point which seems to be a flaw.Salaries lag inflation, and inflation lags interest rates which are increased to combat inflation. Ergo, property if financed largely by mortgage debt is subject to an anti-goldilocks zone, where interest rates rise before inflation falls, and before salaries rise, leading to a spending squeeze among those who are highly leveraged. If inflation is high and currency is depreciating: - Prices of goods = increasing - Salaries = lagging inflation (salaries are still paid in Ringgit) Therefore: Company profits = matching inflation (because prices increase faster than salaries, and because currency depreciation makes exports more lucrative in Ringgit terms) Therefore: Disposable household income = decreasing Assuming then that central bank then raises interest rates to combat inflation and shore up the currency: - Interest rates = increasing - Mortgage payments = increasing Therefore: Disposable household income = decreasing => increasing defaults on mortgage debt, putting pressure on housing prices On that basis I'd prefer (export based) blue chips over properties, largely because the level of mortgage debt held by households currently indicates that the market as a whole is very vulnerable to interest rate hikes. Singapore is an interesting case study for the relationship between property, mortgage debt and inflation because as a small economy that imports everything it consumes, the government is able to inflation using exchange rates instead of interest rates. Hence, over the past 4 years, property has been a very good hedge against inflation in Singapore because interest rates have not risen to combat sky high inflation. When inflation rises, Singapore uses USD to purchase SGD, allowing the SGD to appreciate, thereby making imports cheaper, and this serves to control inflation without having to increase interest rates. On the other hand, interest rates have been floating at ~0% in Singapore because of the profitable carry trade between the USD and the SGD, where US investors borrow money in USD at ~0% to put in Singapore in the expectation (announced by MAS) that the SGD will rise. This has been a substantial contributor to the Singapore property boom in the past 4 years. Hence, property and mortgage debt would be a fantastic hedge against inflation so long as interest rates do not rise in response to inflation. The key question then becomes, will interest rates in Malaysia rise in response to our impending inflation and currency depreciation? BNM traditionally uses interest rates to control inflation, so more likely yes. However, BNM has the discretion to copy Singapore by using reserves instead of interest rates to control inflation. What BNM will decide to do is a question for political scientists and psychics with their crystal balls. 1) interest rate. BNM wants to bring down the overall household debt. Increasing the % of interest will not help in fact it might drive away foreign investors which our government is looking for. Putting a higher interest rate will cause the speculators to go bankrupt over night (hopefully). What BNM aiming at the moment is to stop speculation and reduce the overall household debt. Have anyone of us wonder why until today they are still allowing foreigners to purchase any property which is above rm500k? 2) blue chip. In any case if the economy turn sour your investment will be in a negative cash flow situation. 3) blue chip investment require a large sum of money to return a certain % of ROI. With property it's the other way round. RM60k initial investment for a 400k property and there you go someone will be financing for you and in x number of years the return of appreciation + the payment made by someone else could return you a much better ROI. Of course there are risk on both method of investment.. One requires you to closely monitor the market and another requires you to continue looking for tenant. |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:41 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 31 2013, 12:35 PM) I believe your story about this banks 70% margin is in your total loan, which includes the car loan too. Right? That 3.5k should have include your car loan. I mean bank checks your total loan not just the loan on the house that you are applying. Nope.. Bank of sotong didn't include my car loan when they came out with the 70%, if im nt mistaken + car loan it was around 75%... Well there is something called as "over leverage", u can go for a hse which is worth around 7xxK for full tenure of 35 years n previously 40 years... n ur installment will be around 3.1-3.3K monthly.. Thats the reason I mentioned "cheap credit", so easy to get loan for first hse? I did mention about some FD btw, but can that boost my chances of securing higher loan by tat margin?And your story is if the salary is 5k. If the salary is 10k, then you hav balance 3k. If salary 20k, then balance 6k. A reasonable margin by all accounts. And seriously, if you are at 5k salary, who would want to buy a house that has to pay 3.5k monthly? But in my case monthly installment should be manageable since I will be living with my brother so he will chip in some money monthly, but when I am buying a property they are solely assessing my capabilities in paying back.. So in my opinion that percentage is ridiculous.. Im nt sure wat happen to the 30% margin (Total loan, car + hse)... |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:43 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 01:37 PM) Exactly I don't think his telling the whole story. Adding on shouldn't one be finding something which his own head can wear? RM3.5k monthly you are talking about financing a 650k home loan.. Now that's not too advisable for someone who is merely making rm5k. Again thats my point... "not too advisable for someone who is merely making rm5k" but doesn't stop me from taking up the loan right?BNM should never allow such scenarios at all.. Btw so many juniors in my company purchased 5xx-6xxK condo recently n their salary is less than 4K.. Tat shows how flexible BNM has been.. Most of them took 90% loan somore.. but DIBS + discount assisted them too, since many of them spend less than 40K for dp.. This post has been edited by all blacks: Jul 31 2013, 02:46 PM |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:46 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 02:41 PM) Nope.. Bank of sotong didn't include my car loan when they came out with the 70%, if im nt mistaken + car loan it was around 75%... Well there is something called as "over leverage", u can go for a hse which is worth around 7xxK for full tenure of 35 years n previously 40 years... n ur installment will be around 3.1-3.3K monthly.. Thats the reason I mentioned "cheap credit", so easy to get loan for first hse? I did mention about some FD btw, but can that boost my chances of securing higher loan by tat margin? bank of sotong is quite famous.. not only 40 years loan.. they will give you.. pre approve personal loan.. pre approve renovation loan up to 30% of property value. Yes FD boost your chances to secure a loan. If you have approx rm100k in your FD account you submit your application I think in 2 days time your loan application will be approved without much dispute on it. So in the end you bought it? Double Storey landed?But in my case monthly installment should be manageable since I will be living with my brother so he will chip in some money monthly, but when I am buying a property they are solely assessing my capabilities in paying back.. So in my opinion that percentage is ridiculous.. Im nt sure wat happen to the 30% margin (Total loan, car + hse)... |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:48 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 02:28 PM) Anon good one however there are a few point which seems to be a flaw. Country Last Previous Highest Lowest Trend Unit Reference Frequency1) interest rate. BNM wants to bring down the overall household debt. Increasing the % of interest will not help in fact it might drive away foreign investors which our government is looking for. Putting a higher interest rate will cause the speculators to go bankrupt over night (hopefully). What BNM aiming at the moment is to stop speculation and reduce the overall household debt. Have anyone of us wonder why until today they are still allowing foreigners to purchase any property which is above rm500k? 2) blue chip. In any case if the economy turn sour your investment will be in a negative cash flow situation. 3) blue chip investment require a large sum of money to return a certain % of ROI. With property it's the other way round. RM60k initial investment for a 400k property and there you go someone will be financing for you and in x number of years the return of appreciation + the payment made by someone else could return you a much better ROI. Of course there are risk on both method of investment.. One requires you to closely monitor the market and another requires you to continue looking for tenant. Australia 2.75 2.75 17.5 2.75 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Brunei 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Percent Jun-13 Monthly China 6 6 10.98 5.31 Percent Jun-13 Monthly Cyprus 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Egypt 9.75 9.75 21.4 8.25 Percent Jun-13 Monthly Euro Area 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly France 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Germany 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Greece 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Hong Kong 0.5 0.5 8 0.5 Percent Jun-13 Monthly India 7.25 7.25 14.5 4.25 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Indonesia 6.5 6 12.75 5.75 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Japan 0 0 9 0 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Laos 5 5 35 4 Percent Jun-13 Monthly Macao 0.5 0.5 8 0.5 Percent Apr-13 Monthly Malaysia 3 3 3.5 2 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Myanmar 10 10 12 10 Percent Jun-13 Monthly Netherlands 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly New Zealand 2.5 2.5 67.32 2.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Philippines 3.5 3.5 56.6 3.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Singapore 0.04 0.03 20 -0.75 Percent Jun-13 Monthly South Korea 2.5 2.5 5.25 2 Percent Jul-13 Monthly Thailand 2.5 2.5 5 1.25 Percent Jul-13 Monthly United Kingdom 0.5 0.5 17 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly United States 0.25 0.25 20 0.25 Percent Jun-13 Monthly Vietnam 7 7 15 4.8 Percent Jun-13 Monthly Well if anybody is confused, interest rate for the country is next to the mentioned "country" word. Eg Malaysia is at 3. Now ours are actually among the highest in the region. Well, my take will be even if FED increased by 25bps, BNM would not increase until next year. Then I could be wrong. And notice how low the interest rates in European and US contries. |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:51 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « bro sorry not good with the figures. Can share with me what does it represent? |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:55 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 02:46 PM) bank of sotong is quite famous.. not only 40 years loan.. they will give you.. pre approve personal loan.. pre approve renovation loan up to 30% of property value. Yes FD boost your chances to secure a loan. If you have approx rm100k in your FD account you submit your application I think in 2 days time your loan application will be approved without much dispute on it. So in the end you bought it? Double Storey landed? No wonder... Never knew FD plays such a big role.. I actually submitted only my base salary and that also can lepas dy, but per annum salary is higher due to bonuses.. Btw they did offer the reno loan which follows the BLR rate + x.x%.. but than I decided to drop the deal n yes, it was a double storey.. I juz found it nt worth it n too much of a risk.. The launching price, few years back was 50% of the current price n the owner actually wanted even more... Paying so much for a sub sale unit which also needs quite a bit of reno work wasn't a gud choice... Family advice me to pull off n I did... But im nt sure if it would have been a smart move to take up a fixed rate loan through insurance company... Since they are offering lowest ever fixed interest rate n it's kind of immune to interest rate inflation.. |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:57 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 02:51 PM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « bro sorry not good with the figures. Can share with me what does it represent? Well Malayisia is at 3% Thailand is 2.5% Indonesia just increase 0.5% to 6.5% Singapore 0.04%. I am not sure about this. I checked and it is not a typo? Philippnes is at 3.5% These are the current interest rates regionally. And then look at US 0.25% european countrues 0.5%. When BNM want to increase rates, they still have to look at the worldwide intrest rates...and indicator will always be from US FED. We can just wait, they will announce tomorrow I think. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:01 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 02:55 PM) No wonder... Never knew FD plays such a big role.. I actually submitted only my base salary and that also can lepas dy, but per annum salary is higher due to bonuses.. ING/AIA? 4.8%? to be honest buying a 700k with RM5k is really a risk but again if you are buying something around 400k I think it's worth to park your money there. Yup the moment they print the CCRISS report you got what kind of saving they also know liao. As long as you park the amount with a bank they will know. Those banker will even tell you.. for your case ah? no problem one la... you got so much cash with the bank and bla bla bla. Btw they did offer the reno loan which follows the BLR rate + x.x%.. but than I decided to drop the deal n yes, it was a double storey.. I juz found it nt worth it n too much of a risk.. The launching price, few years back was 50% of the current price n the owner actually wanted even more... Paying so much for a sub sale unit which also needs quite a bit of reno work wasn't a gud choice... Family advice me to pull off n I did... But im nt sure if it would have been a smart move to take up a fixed rate loan through insurance company... Since they are offering lowest ever fixed interest rate n it's kind of immune to interest rate inflation.. On a contrary my brother who do not have a loan with the bank. do not have a credit card. already 3 years working as a sales rep.. want to buy car also need guarantor. In such cases having a minimal debt with the banks will really smoothen up the approval process. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:03 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 02:55 PM) No wonder... Never knew FD plays such a big role.. I actually submitted only my base salary and that also can lepas dy, but per annum salary is higher due to bonuses.. I went to 3 different banks and none of them would have given me such loan. And they will take all your loans include car loan and not just that house loan itself. Frankly, if a guy in my bank approve such a loan, that guy will definitely get a warning or just be fired. Which sotong bank is this? Btw they did offer the reno loan which follows the BLR rate + x.x%.. but than I decided to drop the deal n yes, it was a double storey.. I juz found it nt worth it n too much of a risk.. The launching price, few years back was 50% of the current price n the owner actually wanted even more... Paying so much for a sub sale unit which also needs quite a bit of reno work wasn't a gud choice... Family advice me to pull off n I did... But im nt sure if it would have been a smart move to take up a fixed rate loan through insurance company... Since they are offering lowest ever fixed interest rate n it's kind of immune to interest rate inflation.. I said that you should look at the bonus, See how I am making? They dont wan't too. Then look at my increment and my potential increment in d future? Nope. We want your salary per month only. In the end I had to make a joint loan with a family member. But I am bearing it all of course. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:18 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 03:01 PM) ING/AIA? 4.8%? to be honest buying a 700k with RM5k is really a risk but again if you are buying something around 400k I think it's worth to park your money there. Yup the moment they print the CCRISS report you got what kind of saving they also know liao. As long as you park the amount with a bank they will know. Those banker will even tell you.. for your case ah? no problem one la... you got so much cash with the bank and bla bla bla. 4.8 nt tat bad rite? No CC and no loan with bank also is considered as an issue On a contrary my brother who do not have a loan with the bank. do not have a credit card. already 3 years working as a sales rep.. want to buy car also need guarantor. In such cases having a minimal debt with the banks will really smoothen up the approval process. QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 31 2013, 03:03 PM) I went to 3 different banks and none of them would have given me such loan. And they will take all your loans include car loan and not just that house loan itself. Frankly, if a guy in my bank approve such a loan, that guy will definitely get a warning or just be fired. Which sotong bank is this? I actually tried couple of the banks and the worse was the famous P.. B la.. the rest was all around the same amount.. For sotong bank few branches quoted the same amount initially (Mostly PJ n few in KL).. But in my case I produced a letter from the company which states per annum salary for this year which includes bonuses n so on... So nt an issue la since my EA form can back it up...I said that you should look at the bonus, See how I am making? They dont wan't too. Then look at my increment and my potential increment in d future? Nope. We want your salary per month only. In the end I had to make a joint loan with a family member. But I am bearing it all of course. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:20 PM
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38 posts Joined: Jul 2009 |
yeah, the loan that I took also include the loans (car, personal) + potential housing loan in the 70% DSR calculation. this sotong bank is very good to give you such package. plus reno loan summore. must be your FD amount is super high.
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Jul 31 2013, 03:28 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 03:18 PM) 4.8 nt tat bad rite? No CC and no loan with bank also is considered as an issue I dont think that sotong bank can do business like that, seriously. IF BNM knows they do this they are screwed. If you don't believe me all blacks, you can try and call BNM and ask. Maybe they give you a reward or something for highlighting this to them. If I were an auditor in BNM, this is an audit finding for me, and the bank's CEO is going to be in trouble.I actually tried couple of the banks and the worse was the famous P.. B la.. the rest was all around the same amount.. For sotong bank few branches quoted the same amount initially (Mostly PJ n few in KL).. But in my case I produced a letter from the company which states per annum salary for this year which includes bonuses n so on... So nt an issue la since my EA form can back it up... Unless of course they say you are actually earning 20k a month and 70% is actually nothing. Then different story la. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:32 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 03:18 PM) 4.8 nt tat bad rite? No CC and no loan with bank also is considered as an issue No CC and loan really hard to get financing.. need gurantor here and there. 4.8% pretty high.. monthly I think need to pay extra rm150 if not mistaken had consider it previously. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:34 PM
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Senior Member
4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 31 2013, 03:28 PM) I dont think that sotong bank can do business like that, seriously. IF BNM knows they do this they are screwed. If you don't believe me all blacks, you can try and call BNM and ask. Maybe they give you a reward or something for highlighting this to them. If I were an auditor in BNM, this is an audit finding for me, and the bank's CEO is going to be in trouble. I'm not too sure but previously I took a loan of rm225k.. they pre approve rm30k personal loan and rm60k renovation loan @ a different interest rate. I'm not too sure whether they are still doing this. Will let you know soon.. applied OCBC loan as well for my recent purchase will get the result soon.Unless of course they say you are actually earning 20k a month and 70% is actually nothing. Then different story la. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:35 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(paperbosz @ Jul 31 2013, 03:20 PM) yeah, the loan that I took also include the loans (car, personal) + potential housing loan in the 70% DSR calculation. this sotong bank is very good to give you such package. plus reno loan summore. must be your FD amount is super high. QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 31 2013, 03:28 PM) I dont think that sotong bank can do business like that, seriously. IF BNM knows they do this they are screwed. If you don't believe me all blacks, you can try and call BNM and ask. Maybe they give you a reward or something for highlighting this to them. If I were an auditor in BNM, this is an audit finding for me, and the bank's CEO is going to be in trouble. But again the 70% was from my base salary.. If they check per annum then its only around 50-60% which the officer didn't noe when I approached him.. The funny part is that, he mentioned to me that if u r degree holder + professional job the cap is higher which was 7x% percentage of ur gross salary.. I can't see how it actually helps..Unless of course they say you are actually earning 20k a month and 70% is actually nothing. Then different story la. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:36 PM
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Senior Member
595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 30 2013, 03:58 PM) It's funny, all of this. The 2007/2008 crisis was paradoxically good for our asset markets, not just because of the investor pullout in developed markets, but also because of their stimulus money which had no where to go. As I recall, the asset bubbles which led to the Asian Financial Crisis was in part due to Japanese monetary easing in the aftermath of their own property bubble back in the 80s. Deja vu anyone? Most people don't understand this relationship, and think that our surviving the 2007/2008 crisis is proof of our resilience. It isn't. It's the magic of fiat money. Yes, I do agree with the strong foreign fund we having now but at the same time.... How long it would hold on with the debt we having.....I still thinking of where can we check out about the details of the debt of our government in terms of the expire date on any place...besides that China export draw back has really again impact our export lead economy.We are more prepared for a crisis now than back in 1997/98, but I remember being in Singapore where interest rates were at a stupid ~0% even though inflation was hitting 5%, simply because of the hugely profitable carry trade between the USD and the SGD. My colleagues were actually feeling forced into buying property as mortgage rates at 2% were lower than inflation at 5%. In that period, I note that Singapore, Indonesian and Filipino asset markets actually did even better than us. While the withdrawal of stimulus monies is expected to hurt our asset markets by restricting credit growth, I'm still of the view that the most likely scenario is that any fallout can be controlled and contained because of strong government financials, the fact that the withdrawal of QE is expected to be gradual, and I foresee Japan, GB and Europe to continue easing for a while. This post has been edited by Steven83: Jul 31 2013, 03:37 PM |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:40 PM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 03:32 PM) No CC and loan really hard to get financing.. need gurantor here and there. 4.8% pretty high.. monthly I think need to pay extra rm150 if not mistaken had consider it previously. Extra RM150 isn't tat bad since u can worry less but how much was ur loan bro? I was calculating for 650 - 800K loan n the additional amount was quite high.. My dad always push me to take fixed rate since it's safer... n since he took Government fixed loan previously.. But if u take loan from the insurance company, then need to pay loan agreement fee + MRTA.. Thats the downside, but with banks u can include it into ur housing loan.. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:46 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 03:40 PM) Extra RM150 isn't tat bad since u can worry less but how much was ur loan bro? I was calculating for 650 - 800K loan n the additional amount was quite high.. My dad always push me to take fixed rate since it's safer... n since he took Government fixed loan previously.. But if u take loan from the insurance company, then need to pay loan agreement fee + MRTA.. Thats the downside, but with banks u can include it into ur housing loan.. bro for me im looking for something which would not tie me down. My previous loans were rm230k and rm240k approx both financing LO and MRTA. My recent purchase most likely will go with LO but this round will opt for MLTA instead.RM150 isn't a big deal but not willing to pay the same thing. but if you are sure that's the place you are going to stay for the next 10 years I think it's a good idea to take a fixed rate loan. As for myself I forsee myself staying max 3 years only in that place. I've been shifting quite frequent in the past 6 years. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:48 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 03:35 PM) But again the 70% was from my base salary.. If they check per annum then its only around 50-60% which the officer didn't noe when I approached him.. The funny part is that, he mentioned to me that if u r degree holder + professional job the cap is higher which was 7x% percentage of ur gross salary.. I can't see how it actually helps.. Now I see, that officer has made a mistake then. He can not do that. BNM will have an issue with this if they know. I tried to convince the loan officer, look at perannum salary with the bonus, they won't accept. At least the major flaw that I see here is they did not put in your car loan in 70%? That is already a big NO NO for BNM. Now the 2008 crisis is because we give this kind of non supervised loan like this. Looking at Malaysia Banks, they are ok. but then first time I heard of this sotong bank doing this. Definitely cannot do it in the bank I am working now. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:50 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 02:28 PM) Anon good one however there are a few point which seems to be a flaw. 1) Actually increasing interest will bring in foreign investors for bonds and cash deposits. Foreign investors that come in to invest in industry tend not to borrow in Ringgit anyway, and will not be affected by domestic interest rates. Again though, I foresee any interest rate movements to be gradual instead of sudden.1) interest rate. BNM wants to bring down the overall household debt. Increasing the % of interest will not help in fact it might drive away foreign investors which our government is looking for. Putting a higher interest rate will cause the speculators to go bankrupt over night (hopefully). What BNM aiming at the moment is to stop speculation and reduce the overall household debt. Have anyone of us wonder why until today they are still allowing foreigners to purchase any property which is above rm500k? 2) blue chip. In any case if the economy turn sour your investment will be in a negative cash flow situation. 3) blue chip investment require a large sum of money to return a certain % of ROI. With property it's the other way round. RM60k initial investment for a 400k property and there you go someone will be financing for you and in x number of years the return of appreciation + the payment made by someone else could return you a much better ROI. Of course there are risk on both method of investment.. One requires you to closely monitor the market and another requires you to continue looking for tenant. 2) Generally blue chips are less affected by fluctuations in the economy, but I was talking specifically about inflation and currency depreciation. If you throw in a recession in the mix, unemployment will leave condos untenanted and the entire property bubble will collapse as well, and the safest bet is foreign equities then. 3) You are correct that blue chip returns tend not be leveraged, but your risk is much smaller because you are not leveraged, and because entry/exit costs are lower. RM 60k in blue chips, if the market dips 10%, you lose RM 6k, RM 60k initial investment for a 400k property requires like RM 10-20k for closing costs and taxes. A depreciation of 10% (40k) will wipe out your entire RM 60k. God forbid you lose your job, or are forced to sell for some other reason. You will then have to incurr another RM 10-20k to sell it, and will have to wait a gawd awful long time to get your money. I do agree that rental yields can cover part of the costs, but that assumes optimistically that interest rates stay low, and that your property will remain tenanted. There's a precarious balance between interest rates, occupancy rates and rental rates whereby the cost of leverage can greatly outweigh the income from tenanting. Here's a thought provoking calculation for you (all hypothetical numbers. Feel free to substitute your own) Property price = RM 400,000 Downpayment = RM 60,000 Loan = RM 340,000 at a conservative average interest rate of 7% over 30 years (ARM interest ranges from 4.2% to ~10%) Without counting your rental yield, you would have paid RM 60,000 upfront, and RM 2262 a month for 30 years. Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. Now let's look at investing in a sizable basket of blue chips using dollar cost averaging. Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. Consequently, there is no real long term advantage for owning property versus buying blue chips. The only reason to buy property over equities is if the rental yield (including periods of vacancy) minus all expenses (taxes, maintenance, vandalism, tenant damage, legal fees, agent fees, reno costs etc over 30 years) is greater than blue chip dividend yield (of a growing stock portfolio) during the same period. Note also that with blue chips you have high liquidity, and low entry-exit costs. This much is obvious to the educated observer. If properties were really an absolute superior to equities as an investment, why hasn't all of the world's money poured into owning nothing but properties over the past 100 years? Why would anyone ever buy stocks or bonds? I think the equilibrium where buying property is superior to buying stocks is where prices are below historical price to income ratios and price to rental ratios. Both ratios are not making much sense at the moment, and will make even less sense if interest rates rise. In such cases, a portfolio readjustment will be in order. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:56 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 31 2013, 03:50 PM) 1) Actually increasing interest will bring in foreign investors for bonds and cash deposits. Foreign investors that come in to invest in industry tend not to borrow in Ringgit anyway, and will not be affected by domestic interest rates. Again though, I foresee any interest rate movements to be gradual instead of sudden. I was in V11 last, dunno about v10 but Anon, you were never this thorough on your posts last time. Now, WOW! what happened? just asking.2) Generally blue chips are less affected by fluctuations in the economy, but I was talking specifically about inflation and currency depreciation. If you throw in a recession in the mix, unemployment will leave condos untenanted and the entire property bubble will collapse as well, and the safest bet is foreign equities then. 3) You are correct that blue chip returns tend not be leveraged, but your risk is much smaller because you are not leveraged, and because entry/exit costs are lower. RM 60k in blue chips, if the market dips 10%, you lose RM 6k, RM 60k initial investment for a 400k property requires like RM 10-20k for closing costs and taxes. A depreciation of 10% (40k) will wipe out your entire RM 60k. God forbid you lose your job, or are forced to sell for some other reason. You will then have to incurr another RM 10-20k to sell it, and will have to wait a gawd awful long time to get your money. I do agree that rental yields can cover part of the costs, but that assumes optimistically that interest rates stay low, and that your property will remain tenanted. There's a precarious balance between interest rates, occupancy rates and rental rates whereby the cost of leverage can greatly outweigh the income from tenanting. Here's a thought provoking calculation for you (all hypothetical numbers. Feel free to substitute your own) Property price = RM 400,000 Downpayment = RM 60,000 Loan = RM 340,000 at a conservative average interest rate of 7% over 30 years (ARM interest ranges from 4.2% to ~10%) Without counting your rental yield, you would have paid RM 60,000 upfront, and RM 2262 a month for 30 years. Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. Now let's look at investing in a sizable basket of blue chips using dollar cost averaging. Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. Consequently, there is no real long term advantage for owning property versus buying blue chips. The only reason to buy property over equities is if the rental yield (including periods of vacancy) minus all expenses (taxes, maintenance, vandalism, tenant damage, legal fees, agent fees, reno costs etc over 30 years) is greater than blue chip dividend yield (of a growing stock portfolio) during the same period. Note also that with blue chips you have high liquidity, and low entry-exit costs. This much is obvious to the educated observer. If properties were really an absolute superior to equities as an investment, why hasn't all of the world's money poured into owning nothing but properties over the past 100 years? Why would anyone ever buy stocks or bonds? I think the equilibrium where buying property is superior to buying stocks is where prices are below historical price to income ratios and price to rental ratios. Both ratios are not making much sense at the moment, and will make even less sense if interest rates rise. In such cases, a portfolio readjustment will be in order. |
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Jul 31 2013, 03:59 PM
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70 posts Joined: Oct 2009 |
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Jul 31 2013, 04:03 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 31 2013, 03:50 PM) 1) Actually increasing interest will bring in foreign investors for bonds and cash deposits. Foreign investors that come in to invest in industry tend not to borrow in Ringgit anyway, and will not be affected by domestic interest rates. Again though, I foresee any interest rate movements to be gradual instead of sudden. Bro you are right with most of the point but you miss out the most important part about property investment. 2) Generally blue chips are less affected by fluctuations in the economy, but I was talking specifically about inflation and currency depreciation. If you throw in a recession in the mix, unemployment will leave condos untenanted and the entire property bubble will collapse as well, and the safest bet is foreign equities then. 3) You are correct that blue chip returns tend not be leveraged, but your risk is much smaller because you are not leveraged, and because entry/exit costs are lower. RM 60k in blue chips, if the market dips 10%, you lose RM 6k, RM 60k initial investment for a 400k property requires like RM 10-20k for closing costs and taxes. A depreciation of 10% (40k) will wipe out your entire RM 60k. God forbid you lose your job, or are forced to sell for some other reason. You will then have to incurr another RM 10-20k to sell it, and will have to wait a gawd awful long time to get your money. I do agree that rental yields can cover part of the costs, but that assumes optimistically that interest rates stay low, and that your property will remain tenanted. There's a precarious balance between interest rates, occupancy rates and rental rates whereby the cost of leverage can greatly outweigh the income from tenanting. Here's a thought provoking calculation for you (all hypothetical numbers. Feel free to substitute your own) Property price = RM 400,000 Downpayment = RM 60,000 Loan = RM 340,000 at a conservative average interest rate of 7% over 30 years (ARM interest ranges from 4.2% to ~10%) Without counting your rental yield, you would have paid RM 60,000 upfront, and RM 2262 a month for 30 years. Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. Now let's look at investing in a sizable basket of blue chips using dollar cost averaging. Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. Consequently, there is no real long term advantage for owning property versus buying blue chips. The only reason to buy property over equities is if the rental yield (including periods of vacancy) minus all expenses (taxes, maintenance, vandalism, tenant damage, legal fees, agent fees, reno costs etc over 30 years) is greater than blue chip dividend yield (of a growing stock portfolio) during the same period. Note also that with blue chips you have high liquidity, and low entry-exit costs. This much is obvious to the educated observer. If properties were really an absolute superior to equities as an investment, why hasn't all of the world's money poured into owning nothing but properties over the past 100 years? Why would anyone ever buy stocks or bonds? I think the equilibrium where buying property is superior to buying stocks is where prices are below historical price to income ratios and price to rental ratios. Both ratios are not making much sense at the moment, and will make even less sense if interest rates rise. In such cases, a portfolio readjustment will be in order. Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. In property the calculation should be Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Monthly rental yield = RM1.5k for example Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. With an additional of RM540k from rental collection - that's only without inflation taken into account. What if the rental yield increases as well? And as you see taking RM1.5k is pretty much unrealistic usually those place which cost rm400k would most likely rentable at RM1.8k approx. I'm taking the lowest for this example. |
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Jul 31 2013, 04:26 PM
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Senior Member
565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
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Jul 31 2013, 04:35 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 04:03 PM) Bro you are right with most of the point but you miss out the most important part about property investment. I actually did take that into account. That's why I referred to the balance between entire net rental yield for the same property over the entire period of 30 yrs vs the dividend yield of a growing equity portfolio that starts at RM 60,000 and ends at RM 1.8 mil. During that period, rental yields may increase, but so may dividend yields.Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. In property the calculation should be Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Monthly rental yield = RM1.5k for example Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. With an additional of RM540k from rental collection - that's only without inflation taken into account. What if the rental yield increases as well? And as you see taking RM1.5k is pretty much unrealistic usually those place which cost rm400k would most likely rentable at RM1.8k approx. I'm taking the lowest for this example. What most people tend to forget is that a condo and the necessary furniture and finishings may tend to look dated and shitty after 10 yrs or so, and therefore many costs need to be incurred periodically to maintain rental yields. As Robert Shiller said leading up to the US crisis, until the US property boom, few in the US found residential property as a viable investment because residential housing was viewed as a depreciating but durable consumer product that wears out and falls apart as time goes on, just like a car, but substantially slower. (Land on the other hand, does not wear out and is a viable investment. The problem with condos though is that you own too small a share of the land for the price you pay). You then have maintenance costs, legal costs, agents costs, your own time and energy, vacancy risk, troublesome tenants etc to deal with also throughout that entire period. Note also that all these costs will rise in tandem with inflation. On the other hand, balanced and diversified equity portfolios start small, but require almost zero costs and energy to maintain. If you really want to do the math, it's hard to say which is better than the other because so much can change over 30 years. For instance, property would be a better deal if interest stays at 4.2% for 30 years, but I won't know that today. Property may appreciate faster than equities, or vice versa, but I also couldn't possibly know that today. I prefer to look at long term price/rent and price/income ratios as an indication of when property becomes a better investment than equities. Do note that I'm not advocating equities over property in general. I'm just saying that many people are overexposed to the property market at the moment, as it's their one and only mode of investment in a time when rental yields are appallingly low relative to long term fundamentals. Slumlords who deal in low cost housing are probably an exception as their rental yields are still high. |
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Jul 31 2013, 05:22 PM
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70 posts Joined: Oct 2009 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 31 2013, 04:35 PM) I actually did take that into account. That's why I referred to the balance between entire net rental yield for the same property over the entire period of 30 yrs vs the dividend yield of a growing equity portfolio that starts at RM 60,000 and ends at RM 1.8 mil. During that period, rental yields may increase, but so may dividend yields. Both property and equities have their pros and cons. However, the fact is that the average Malaysian investor has no idea how to invest in equities. P/E? D/Y? EPS? These are all gibberish to them. Most people would have no clue how to construct a balanced portfolio.What most people tend to forget is that a condo and the necessary furniture and finishings may tend to look dated and shitty after 10 yrs or so, and therefore many costs need to be incurred periodically to maintain rental yields. As Robert Shiller said leading up to the US crisis, until the US property boom, few in the US found residential property as a viable investment because residential housing was viewed as a depreciating but durable consumer product that wears out and falls apart as time goes on, just like a car, but substantially slower. (Land on the other hand, does not wear out and is a viable investment. The problem with condos though is that you own too small a share of the land for the price you pay). You then have maintenance costs, legal costs, agents costs, your own time and energy, vacancy risk, troublesome tenants etc to deal with also throughout that entire period. Note also that all these costs will rise in tandem with inflation. On the other hand, balanced and diversified equity portfolios start small, but require almost zero costs and energy to maintain. If you really want to do the math, it's hard to say which is better than the other because so much can change over 30 years. For instance, property would be a better deal if interest stays at 4.2% for 30 years, but I won't know that today. Property may appreciate faster than equities, or vice versa, but I also couldn't possibly know that today. I prefer to look at long term price/rent and price/income ratios as an indication of when property becomes a better investment than equities. Do note that I'm not advocating equities over property in general. I'm just saying that many people are overexposed to the property market at the moment, as it's their one and only mode of investment in a time when rental yields are appallingly low relative to long term fundamentals. Slumlords who deal in low cost housing are probably an exception as their rental yields are still high. Property on the other hand, is much easier to understand for the average Malaysian. Today I buy condo, tomorrow it goes up! Then I sell and make money! Unfortunately, the ease of obtaining credit has lead to a disconnect between intrinsic and perceived value when it comes to property. Looking around Penang, I see many properties with a rental yield of 1% or even less, while there are plenty of bluechip REITS yielding 5 to 6% dividends per year. |
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Jul 31 2013, 06:08 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
Great points!
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Aug 1 2013, 07:05 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
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Aug 1 2013, 07:38 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:23 AM
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408 posts Joined: Dec 2010 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 31 2013, 03:50 PM) 1) Actually increasing interest will bring in foreign investors for bonds and cash deposits. Foreign investors that come in to invest in industry tend not to borrow in Ringgit anyway, and will not be affected by domestic interest rates. Again though, I foresee any interest rate movements to be gradual instead of sudden. Very good write out.2) Generally blue chips are less affected by fluctuations in the economy, but I was talking specifically about inflation and currency depreciation. If you throw in a recession in the mix, unemployment will leave condos untenanted and the entire property bubble will collapse as well, and the safest bet is foreign equities then. 3) You are correct that blue chip returns tend not be leveraged, but your risk is much smaller because you are not leveraged, and because entry/exit costs are lower. RM 60k in blue chips, if the market dips 10%, you lose RM 6k, RM 60k initial investment for a 400k property requires like RM 10-20k for closing costs and taxes. A depreciation of 10% (40k) will wipe out your entire RM 60k. God forbid you lose your job, or are forced to sell for some other reason. You will then have to incurr another RM 10-20k to sell it, and will have to wait a gawd awful long time to get your money. I do agree that rental yields can cover part of the costs, but that assumes optimistically that interest rates stay low, and that your property will remain tenanted. There's a precarious balance between interest rates, occupancy rates and rental rates whereby the cost of leverage can greatly outweigh the income from tenanting. Here's a thought provoking calculation for you (all hypothetical numbers. Feel free to substitute your own) Property price = RM 400,000 Downpayment = RM 60,000 Loan = RM 340,000 at a conservative average interest rate of 7% over 30 years (ARM interest ranges from 4.2% to ~10%) Without counting your rental yield, you would have paid RM 60,000 upfront, and RM 2262 a month for 30 years. Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. Now let's look at investing in a sizable basket of blue chips using dollar cost averaging. Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. Consequently, there is no real long term advantage for owning property versus buying blue chips. The only reason to buy property over equities is if the rental yield (including periods of vacancy) minus all expenses (taxes, maintenance, vandalism, tenant damage, legal fees, agent fees, reno costs etc over 30 years) is greater than blue chip dividend yield (of a growing stock portfolio) during the same period. Note also that with blue chips you have high liquidity, and low entry-exit costs. This much is obvious to the educated observer. If properties were really an absolute superior to equities as an investment, why hasn't all of the world's money poured into owning nothing but properties over the past 100 years? Why would anyone ever buy stocks or bonds? I think the equilibrium where buying property is superior to buying stocks is where prices are below historical price to income ratios and price to rental ratios. Both ratios are not making much sense at the moment, and will make even less sense if interest rates rise. In such cases, a portfolio readjustment will be in order. If I get a choice between properties investment and blue chip share (assume both return are equal), I will choose property. The reason is simple. For property investment, you tend to control yourself. You can choose your tenant. For share investment, the companies are control by big shareholders. They may fool you around. If the companies perform well, they tend to privatize and offer low buy price. If the companies perform badly, they may perform some tricsk on it. Nevertheless, they are a few companies that are very trustworthy, at least until now. Let get back to a very original question, why a company wants to list in KLSE? For the sake of minority? This post has been edited by Nepo: Aug 1 2013, 08:25 AM |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:56 AM
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2,024 posts Joined: Apr 2013 |
before going into property renting....may I ask...how was the renting rates now? Easy to rent out? Lets said...Penang, KL and Johor.
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Aug 1 2013, 10:07 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
Other thing to consider about investing stocks is stocks are very volatile compared to property. If you invest in stocks, you will not sleep as well.
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Aug 1 2013, 10:35 AM
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6,747 posts Joined: Sep 2010 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 04:03 PM) Bro you are right with most of the point but you miss out the most important part about property investment. Agree.Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years. In property the calculation should be Initial investment = RM 60,000 Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years. Monthly rental yield = RM1.5k for example Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years. With an additional of RM540k from rental collection - that's only without inflation taken into account. What if the rental yield increases as well? And as you see taking RM1.5k is pretty much unrealistic usually those place which cost rm400k would most likely rentable at RM1.8k approx. I'm taking the lowest for this example. My only concern is the exchange rates : What will be the exchange rate RM against Sing dollar in 30 years time? Better or worse? Need not to answer, 3 year old boy also know Holding cash in RM has no future |
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Aug 1 2013, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE(661188 @ Aug 1 2013, 04:08 AM) Interest rates won't go near 7% in the next 5yr. And the entry cost is low for new launch. Unlikely to hit 7% in next 2-3 years as US rates will still be low. Beyond that I can't say, as I have no crystal ball. But 7% averaged out over 30 years is a conservative estimate, and is based on historical data. You would expect 2 to 3 recessions during that period anyway. Entry cost is low for new launch, but you get a grand total of zero yields while the property is under construction, so it evens out.You indulge yourselves too much in the shiok sendiri analysis. |
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Aug 1 2013, 03:53 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 1 2013, 12:08 PM) Unlikely to hit 7% in next 2-3 years as US rates will still be low. Beyond that I can't say, as I have no crystal ball. But 7% averaged out over 30 years is a conservative estimate, and is based on historical data. You would expect 2 to 3 recessions during that period anyway. Entry cost is low for new launch, but you get a grand total of zero yields while the property is under construction, so it evens out. Well if expect 2 or 3recession during those times, it will affect more on stock than properties. Kind of scary. Your porfolio can just be wiped out. But property, has it ever been that bad? Ok maybe in the US but then their interest goes to 0.25%.Now will the same be happening in Malaysia? My prediction in 30 yrs, Pakatan would already be in power and our economy will be in a much better shape than now. Because in 30 yrs, the senior people who support current government will be dead. The young generation will mostly vote for Pakatan. |
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Aug 1 2013, 05:18 PM
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If im not mistaken i think anon was only referring to blue chip stocks. Has any been wiped out in the last 30 years? Anyway i think the key message was dont get overexposed in property (and not this is better than that etc)
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Aug 1 2013, 05:25 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Nomos @ Aug 1 2013, 05:18 PM) If im not mistaken i think anon was only referring to blue chip stocks. Has any been wiped out in the last 30 years? Anyway i think the key message was dont get overexposed in property (and not this is better than that etc) Well AIG was almost wiped out before the bailout. Look at MAS once was 8 ringgit. During 1998 crisis Maybank from the near 10rm went to almost 2 i believe?. I dunt remember.This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Aug 1 2013, 05:27 PM |
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Aug 1 2013, 05:31 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 05:25 PM) Well AIG was almost wiped out before the bailout. Look at MAS once was 8 ringgit. During 1998 crisis Maybank from the near 10rm went to almost 2 i believe?. I dunt remember. Oh yeah Bank bumiputera does not exist anymore. My point was, during these recession period in Malaysia, stocks hurt the most compared to property. |
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Aug 1 2013, 05:37 PM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(Nepo @ Aug 1 2013, 08:23 AM) For share investment, the companies are control by big shareholders. They may fool you around. If the companies perform well, they tend to privatize and offer low buy price. Only happen in bolehland.If the companies perform badly, they may perform some tricsk on it. Nevertheless, they are a few companies that are very trustworthy, at least until now. |
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Aug 1 2013, 05:49 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
Stock prices are determined based on their underlying assets/ income generation capability... those that go bust were either having overvalued assets OR overrated future income generation... Just like Lehman (overvalued assets)... dot com companies... (all empty shells and overrated technologies that never made it to the market)... properties weren't severely hit the last recessions because in boleh-land they weren't overvalued (as they weren't widely used as investment tools)... today's property prices are a very different story and so are the motives behind purchasing them compared to before.
My opinion... |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:09 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
Well doesnt matter, if you want to use history as part of our analysis to say which is better, stocks are more riskier than properties. History says so.
Then if you want to say that properties are different nowadays where it is an investment tool or whatnot and want to use US as a guide or comparison then US drop its interest rates to 0.25%. And i believe that everybody who bought fennel are mostly 90% for own use and not for investment, i mean everybody here will agree even the upside camp, that fennel is too expensive to give any return. |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:12 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 06:09 PM) Well doesnt matter, if you want to use history as part of our analysis to say which is better, stocks are more riskier than properties. History says so. and to add on.. 4.5 years wor... hurmm... Then if you want to say that properties are different nowadays where it is an investment tool or whatnot and want to use US as a guide or comparison then US drop its interest rates to 0.25%. And i believe that everybody who bought fennel are mostly 90% for own use and not for investment, i mean everybody here will agree even the upside camp, that fennel is too expensive to give any return. |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:21 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 06:09 PM) Well doesnt matter, if you want to use history as part of our analysis to say which is better, stocks are more riskier than properties. History says so. For Fennel, capital outlay RM100k. 4.5 years later sell RM1.1m. Profit RM300k / 300%. Over 4.5 years = 60+% per year Then if you want to say that properties are different nowadays where it is an investment tool or whatnot and want to use US as a guide or comparison then US drop its interest rates to 0.25%. And i believe that everybody who bought fennel are mostly 90% for own use and not for investment, i mean everybody here will agree even the upside camp, that fennel is too expensive to give any return. Any blue chip can give return of 60+% per year ? Any blue chip invest RM100k, can make capital gain RM300k ? This post has been edited by EddyLB: Aug 1 2013, 06:24 PM |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:23 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 1 2013, 06:21 PM) For Fennel, capital outlay RM100k. 4.5 years later sell RM1.1m. Profit RM300k / 300%. Over 4.5 years = 60+% per year u not sure yet whether ada org mau beli or not. for RM1.1m you will have many other options man... would rather invest 3 double storey in NILAI than to have a single condo in Sentul leh. |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:25 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 1 2013, 06:12 PM) Yup looking at 5 yrs and as a stock investor myself, i would be more worried on stocks that i hold rather than the properties.So many things affect stocks. World oil price, fed interest rates, tsunami in japan and KABOOM Klci drop 20 points in 10 minutes. I tell you u wont sleep at night. Coz if a tsunami happens in japan like last time, my house price is still d same but my stocks were getting a beating. |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:26 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 1 2013, 06:23 PM) u not sure yet whether ada org mau beli or not. for RM1.1m you will have many other options man... would rather invest 3 double storey in NILAI than to have a single condo in Sentul leh. Yeah dats why for me i think it is impossible dat majority were investors on that day. |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:26 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 06:25 PM) Yup looking at 5 yrs and as a stock investor myself, i would be more worried on stocks that i hold rather than the properties. stock will also impact property development.. YTL stock went down the drain.. do you think this sentul project will continue???So many things affect stocks. World oil price, fed interest rates, tsunami in japan and KABOOM Klci drop 20 points in 10 minutes. I tell you u wont sleep at night. Coz if a tsunami happens in japan like last time, my house price is still d same but my stocks were getting a beating. better buy sub sale chor. |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:27 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 1 2013, 06:23 PM) u not sure yet whether ada org mau beli or not. for RM1.1m you will have many other options man... would rather invest 3 double storey in NILAI than to have a single condo in Sentul leh. That's the questions asked by the DDD camp. Will the market keep going up ?If like last few years, then RM1.1m no problem to sell If stagnant, then sell at RM850k. Take back capital. Worth the risk or not ? |
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Aug 1 2013, 06:35 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:04 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 06:26 PM) To me, real home buyers wouldnt queue up like that, especially for a condo at that price in Sentul which is an area im almost certain many of them havent lived in before. If they were selling DSLs maybe... But these condos? Im not denying the project is attractive. But if these people wanted, they could have bought nice existing condos in the vicinity. |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:20 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(Nomos @ Aug 1 2013, 08:04 PM) To me, real home buyers wouldnt queue up like that, especially for a condo at that price in Sentul which is an area im almost certain many of them havent lived in before. If they were selling DSLs maybe... But these condos? Im not denying the project is attractive. But if these people wanted, they could have bought nice existing condos in the vicinity. good tot. and ... wait 4.5 yrs = genuine homebuyers? !! |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:21 PM
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Senior Member
986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:33 PM
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Senior Member
986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/ar...t-ringgit-drops
Hmmmm.... |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:39 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Nomos @ Aug 1 2013, 08:04 PM) To me, real home buyers wouldnt queue up like that, especially for a condo at that price in Sentul which is an area im almost certain many of them havent lived in before. If they were selling DSLs maybe... But these condos? Im not denying the project is attractive. But if these people wanted, they could have bought nice existing condos in the vicinity. Maybe, my experience with Amaya, we were queing up. Lucky there were lots of bumi lots coz non bumis are mostly finished. I surveyed everybody, yup i can see there were investors, but then hearing the discussions among them, there were people buying for own stay. Not for investment. So i ask myself, what category am I? I actually bought it for a backup for own stay. Just in case i cant find any good landed house. Then in d end i bought two, this is a backup for my children and at d same time maybe rent it out. Then what category am I? I think both for investing with a backup for own stay. But then can say for own stay with backup investing too. Dont intend to sell but then never say never. Well i m giving pov of my own self as a property buyer. |
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Aug 1 2013, 08:51 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
Wow!
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Aug 1 2013, 11:14 PM
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Senior Member
650 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: Formerly Perak, now KL |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 06:25 PM) Yup looking at 5 yrs and as a stock investor myself, i would be more worried on stocks that i hold rather than the properties. Maybe your emotional make-up not suited to stocks? So many things affect stocks. World oil price, fed interest rates, tsunami in japan and KABOOM Klci drop 20 points in 10 minutes. I tell you u wont sleep at night. Coz if a tsunami happens in japan like last time, my house price is still d same but my stocks were getting a beating. I have both stocks and properties. KLCI drop 20 points is nothing .... some overseas (blue chip) stocks can go down (and up) very sharply. But one thing I noticed is that my friends who are heavily into properties (>10 biji) don't tend to do well in stocks. Maybe cause the skills and mind set required are very different. |
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Aug 2 2013, 12:46 AM
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565 posts Joined: Oct 2005 From: Damansara |
QUOTE(Veda @ Aug 1 2013, 11:14 PM) Maybe your emotional make-up not suited to stocks? Different risk appetites..I have both stocks and properties. KLCI drop 20 points is nothing .... some overseas (blue chip) stocks can go down (and up) very sharply. But one thing I noticed is that my friends who are heavily into properties (>10 biji) don't tend to do well in stocks. Maybe cause the skills and mind set required are very different. |
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Aug 2 2013, 02:07 AM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
The big players today may not be the same as tomorrow. Industry players expect some kinda consolidation amongst companies especially those that need to survive on profitability - they need to acquire to survive.
In the meantime, as long as Govt continues to pump money into Construction sector, our GDP growth will still be OK as GDP is computed by average of sectors. Overall GDP growth will still stimulate the economy. Example assuming the bad scenario: Manufacturing: -2% (past current average is +1%) Services: +3% (past current average is +6%) -- domestic in nature Mining: -3% (past current average is -1%) Agriculture: +1% (past current average is +3%) -- domestic in nature Construction: +6% (past current average is +16%) -- domestic in nature Total average is still +1% aggregated growth (past average is +5%). So the trick is to jacked up CONSTRUCTION SECTOR. ![]() |
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Aug 2 2013, 04:28 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(Veda @ Aug 1 2013, 11:14 PM) Maybe your emotional make-up not suited to stocks? Well i guess in normal market condition you wont lose sleep, but if it is recession period? I can imagine the guy who bought AIG last time. Anyway I already made some return from stocks. Get in and get out before anything happens. After the 2008 election, KLCI dropped more than 100 points!I have both stocks and properties. KLCI drop 20 points is nothing .... some overseas (blue chip) stocks can go down (and up) very sharply. But one thing I noticed is that my friends who are heavily into properties (>10 biji) don't tend to do well in stocks. Maybe cause the skills and mind set required are very different. Anyway about your fren, so he made good return from properties I imagine. Just shows properties are better. Can anybody here in low yat forum give example of frens who are good at stocks but bad in properties? I believe it is either you are good with properties and stocks or you are good with properties but not stocks. I never heard somebody who are good with stocks but bad with properties. But Then i can be wrong, maybe somebody out there can share his experience. |
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Aug 2 2013, 08:15 AM
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408 posts Joined: Dec 2010 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 1 2013, 06:21 PM) For Fennel, capital outlay RM100k. 4.5 years later sell RM1.1m. Profit RM300k / 300%. Over 4.5 years = 60+% per year It depends on timing.Any blue chip can give return of 60+% per year ? Any blue chip invest RM100k, can make capital gain RM300k ? Let's recall:- In Year 2008, Padini @ RM0.28 per share (share split+Bonus issues) Five years later (1/8/2013) Padini @ RM 1.77 Return= 1.77-0.29/5 years = 100% p.a. ICap biz a close ended company bought Padini 22,700,000 shares (include shares split + Bonus issues) @ 0.28 in Year 2008 and hold until Year 2012 (not sure whether sell in Year 2013) Who is the rich? The rich is the one:- 1). Ability to select right stocks/properties/investment 2). Correct timing 3). Availability of capital 4). Luck For normal persons who like to become rich, the first to do is to accumulate his capital. This post has been edited by Nepo: Aug 2 2013, 08:52 AM |
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Aug 2 2013, 08:58 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 2 2013, 04:28 AM) Well i guess in normal market condition you wont lose sleep, but if it is recession period? I can imagine the guy who bought AIG last time. Anyway I already made some return from stocks. Get in and get out before anything happens. After the 2008 election, KLCI dropped more than 100 points! Yup your wrong. I somehow get to know a fellow colleague who only invest in stock and never into property. His word of advise... prepare to pay a sum of tuition fee before you can start earning haha.Anyway about your fren, so he made good return from properties I imagine. Just shows properties are better. Can anybody here in low yat forum give example of frens who are good at stocks but bad in properties? I believe it is either you are good with properties and stocks or you are good with properties but not stocks. I never heard somebody who are good with stocks but bad with properties. But Then i can be wrong, maybe somebody out there can share his experience. |
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Aug 2 2013, 09:09 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 08:58 AM) Yup your wrong. I somehow get to know a fellow colleague who only invest in stock and never into property. His word of advise... prepare to pay a sum of tuition fee before you can start earning haha. I too know some uncle who is amazing when it comes to stocks, he's got a very simple strategy (secret)... but not that great in properties... so now he's already cashed out of stocks and keeping millions in foreign & local deposits... just waiting... he doesn't even bother looking at the index these days... just enjoying his dim sum, walks, tea, and chit chatting... I asked him why not go into properties... he says he's not good in properties and anyway he thinks prices are too high... He looks just like any other uncle out there... I was shocked when I found out that he was freaking rich... jeezzzz... |
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Aug 2 2013, 09:12 AM
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408 posts Joined: Dec 2010 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 08:58 AM) Yup your wrong. I somehow get to know a fellow colleague who only invest in stock and never into property. His word of advise... prepare to pay a sum of tuition fee before you can start earning haha. True.To invest in shares, u need to pay tuition either at initial stage or middle stage. It is the worst scenario if u pay u tuition fee at the later stage. |
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Aug 2 2013, 09:52 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 2 2013, 09:09 AM) I too know some uncle who is amazing when it comes to stocks, he's got a very simple strategy (secret)... but not that great in properties... so now he's already cashed out of stocks and keeping millions in foreign & local deposits... just waiting... he doesn't even bother looking at the index these days... just enjoying his dim sum, walks, tea, and chit chatting... I asked him why not go into properties... he says he's not good in properties and anyway he thinks prices are too high... He looks just like any other uncle out there... I was shocked when I found out that he was freaking rich... jeezzzz... |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:04 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 08:58 AM) Yup your wrong. I somehow get to know a fellow colleague who only invest in stock and never into property. His word of advise... prepare to pay a sum of tuition fee before you can start earning haha. Oh thats not what i meant. I mean is there a guy invest in both but his stock portfolio was increasing but his property invest went down. I never heard it happen to anybody that invest in both. When somebody invest in both are both stocks went up but property portflio diminishes? Did that happen to somebody who invest in both in malaysia?If somebody preferred stock over the other, well that is just preference and yeah different risk appetite. Actually i preferred stocks over properties but as i said i just bought the preprrty for own stay and then another one because the opportunity was just too good to pass up. And trading stocks are just easier to do and make money. |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:07 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 09:52 AM) Perhaps the same person? lol. Well i am straight forward and open to criticism. His indeed driving a jetta - did not take loan for it.. and staying in a fully paid semi-D in usj heights.. and his only 38 this year. I always chit chat with him regarding props... stock market and any rubbish which relates to financial topic. His comment was the same... waiting for the right time atm. He too share with me that he parked his money somewhere and waiting for the chance and asking me whether i'm interested to join him. Told him no money. So he is not holding any stocks right now? But then he has the semi D. |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:11 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 2 2013, 10:07 AM) nop spoken to him about this topic last week when his doing all his "si lai claim" hahaha. he release everything he has in hand last month and his now playing the waiting game. I guess he have a point and i too agree that if you have any stocks you should release them and wait for the real moment to re-enter. His Semi-D is for own stay though his only worry was aiya... my car 2nd hand value so low. HAhahaAnyway can't comment much on your previous statement never encountered before in fact my circle of friends were not so good in stock market... we are all better with binaries than the graph and charts in stock market. |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:19 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 09:52 AM) Perhaps the same person? lol. Well i am straight forward and open to criticism. His indeed driving a jetta - did not take loan for it.. and staying in a fully paid semi-D in usj heights.. and his only 38 this year. I always chit chat with him regarding props... stock market and any rubbish which relates to financial topic. His comment was the same... waiting for the right time atm. He too share with me that he parked his money somewhere and waiting for the chance and asking me whether i'm interested to join him. Told him no money. Don't think its the same person... This fella I know is an uncle, retired fella... His advice also... waiting for the right time... lol!!! hmmm... He only tell me one thing... now is time to collect bullets... when he enter he will tell me... But whether I have the balls to do what he does is another story... So I also collecting now... waiting for his green light... lol...He started with few hundred K... now he has millions!!!! from stocks... I guess he must be doing something right... |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:20 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 10:11 AM) nop spoken to him about this topic last week when his doing all his "si lai claim" hahaha. he release everything he has in hand last month and his now playing the waiting game. I guess he have a point and i too agree that if you have any stocks you should release them and wait for the real moment to re-enter. His Semi-D is for own stay though his only worry was aiya... my car 2nd hand value so low. HAhaha I thought u r not into stocks? Ask ur fren when is the right moment to go back to stock. And his semi D must increase in value right? Well if it increases, then indirectly, he is a successful proprty investor and directly successful in stocks. Anyway can't comment much on your previous statement never encountered before in fact my circle of friends were not so good in stock market... we are all better with binaries than the graph and charts in stock market. Yeah 2nd hand car value so low. I feel it. Cant imagine myself buying a 1st hand car and just diminshes in value so fast. |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:25 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
WoW!
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Aug 2 2013, 10:33 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 2 2013, 10:20 AM) I thought u r not into stocks? Ask ur fren when is the right moment to go back to stock. And his semi D must increase in value right? Well if it increases, then indirectly, he is a successful proprty investor and directly successful in stocks. nop i'm not.. I've already set a path which I want to go along with it. Will be only into property and my plan is to accumulate 7 by the age of 40 with some being fully paid off. I do not want to bother myself with other investment link cause i really do not have that much time.. Yeah 2nd hand car value so low. I feel it. Cant imagine myself buying a 1st hand car and just diminshes in value so fast. bro again i think the investor word in this sense is a wrong word to use yes his Semi-D appreciated close to 200% but he always ask me.. If i sell where i want to buy? where am i going to stay? That's also a right question to ask to be honest. I think you can only categorize oneself if and only if the person plans to sell his property if they are planning to keep it until they sleeps in the coffin i don't think it's right to categorize ppl as a property investor. no? |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:35 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 10:33 AM) nop i'm not.. I've already set a path which I want to go along with it. Will be only into property and my plan is to accumulate 7 by the age of 40 with some being fully paid off. I do not want to bother myself with other investment link cause i really do not have that much time.. bro again i think the investor word in this sense is a wrong word to use yes his Semi-D appreciated close to 200% but he always ask me.. If i sell where i want to buy? where am i going to stay? That's also a right question to ask to be honest. I think you can only categorize oneself if and only if the person plans to sell his property if they are planning to keep it until they sleeps in the coffin i don't think it's right to categorize ppl as a property investor. no? |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:37 AM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
When green light can help post here kah? Hehe
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Aug 2 2013, 10:39 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 10:33 AM) nop i'm not.. I've already set a path which I want to go along with it. Will be only into property and my plan is to accumulate 7 by the age of 40 with some being fully paid off. I do not want to bother myself with other investment link cause i really do not have that much time.. Yeah thats why i said indirectly he made a successful purchase on a property. Indirectly he must have analyse the potential benefits when he bought the property, no? Even for own stay i did consider the potential of my house increase, i dont want to pay for a house that can't increase.bro again i think the investor word in this sense is a wrong word to use yes his Semi-D appreciated close to 200% but he always ask me.. If i sell where i want to buy? where am i going to stay? That's also a right question to ask to be honest. I think you can only categorize oneself if and only if the person plans to sell his property if they are planning to keep it until they sleeps in the coffin i don't think it's right to categorize ppl as a property investor. no? And directly he is a successful stiock investors. Now he emptied his portflio coz he thinks it is risky right now to invest in stocks and waiting for d right moment. |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:57 AM
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560 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
Actually, I entered the market actively in 2002. That time the KLCI was around 600 and was on the uptrend. It was like shooting fish in a barrel. Any amateur can make money. My mistake was I was too conservative and no bullet to make a real killing. But I learned a lot. So timing is also important.
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Aug 2 2013, 11:48 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
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Aug 2 2013, 12:11 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(Nepo @ Aug 2 2013, 08:15 AM) It depends on timing. Compare to property market, those who bought in 2008, 99% would have made 200%-300% margin, very easily. Don't need to pick and choose, simply taruk also win.Let's recall:- In Year 2008, Padini @ RM0.28 per share (share split+Bonus issues) Five years later (1/8/2013) Padini @ RM 1.77 Return= 1.77-0.29/5 years = 100% p.a. ICap biz a close ended company bought Padini 22,700,000 shares (include shares split + Bonus issues) @ 0.28 in Year 2008 and hold until Year 2012 (not sure whether sell in Year 2013) Who is the rich? The rich is the one:- 1). Ability to select right stocks/properties/investment 2). Correct timing 3). Availability of capital 4). Luck For normal persons who like to become rich, the first to do is to accumulate his capital. But the same cannot be said in 2013, I admit. So do the stock market. It is the choice of an investor who favour stock or property. I favour more to property, and less to stock. Not saying stock is not good, it give good returns too. But property has made way way more money than stock for me. Maybe I am unlucky to pick some stocks which didn't move as much. For one, I didn't pick Padini |
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Aug 2 2013, 12:20 PM
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6,747 posts Joined: Sep 2010 |
If money not enough, just focus 1 thing at one time will do.
A lot of people wasting too much time just for research and research. Every field can make money and every field can also send you to hell. Just need to focus P/s : For those who has at least 5 mil cash in hand, you can do research, research and research, diversify yr portfolio This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Aug 2 2013, 12:26 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 01:17 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
Probably Malaysians never learn to save money. They only spend... and take more loan.
by jason_osw in remix 2 thread. ![]() This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 2 2013, 01:18 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 01:39 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 12:11 PM) Compare to property market, those who bought in 2008, 99% would have made 200%-300% margin, very easily. Don't need to pick and choose, simply taruk also win. bro those invested in gold.... by now already lau sai...But the same cannot be said in 2013, I admit. So do the stock market. It is the choice of an investor who favour stock or property. I favour more to property, and less to stock. Not saying stock is not good, it give good returns too. But property has made way way more money than stock for me. Maybe I am unlucky to pick some stocks which didn't move as much. For one, I didn't pick Padini |
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Aug 2 2013, 01:40 PM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « what is the cheapest one? seems like all sold out except for the bigger units... |
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Aug 2 2013, 02:35 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
QUOTE(Nepo @ Aug 2 2013, 08:15 AM) It depends on timing. good sharing.Let's recall:- In Year 2008, Padini @ RM0.28 per share (share split+Bonus issues) Five years later (1/8/2013) Padini @ RM 1.77 Return= 1.77-0.29/5 years = 100% p.a. ICap biz a close ended company bought Padini 22,700,000 shares (include shares split + Bonus issues) @ 0.28 in Year 2008 and hold until Year 2012 (not sure whether sell in Year 2013) Who is the rich? The rich is the one:- 1). Ability to select right stocks/properties/investment 2). Correct timing 3). Availability of capital 4). Luck For normal persons who like to become rich, the first to do is to accumulate his capital. let's take a look at property as an example. the zest. launch circa 2008/2009. launch price approx RM200psf. say 1100sf apt at RM240k. DP = RM24k fast forward to now circa RM460psf. So approx RM506k. take gross profit = approx rm266k / RM24k (vested capital) 1108% over 5 years = 222% p.a. not sure whether the above calculation is right or not. |
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Aug 2 2013, 02:42 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 12:11 PM) Compare to property market, those who bought in 2008, 99% would have made 200%-300% margin, very easily. Don't need to pick and choose, simply taruk also win. Yes, that is what i meant by somebody who invest in stocks and properties, i heard that they gain on both portfolios, or like you where gain on property only but no gain on stocks. I never heard of somebody who invests in both portfolio where he gain from stocks but dont gain anything from property. Never heard of such thing happen to anybody.But the same cannot be said in 2013, I admit. So do the stock market. It is the choice of an investor who favour stock or property. I favour more to property, and less to stock. Not saying stock is not good, it give good returns too. But property has made way way more money than stock for me. Maybe I am unlucky to pick some stocks which didn't move as much. For one, I didn't pick Padini Then if the doomsday prophecy from the down camp comes true, u are screwed either in stocks or properties i guess, but stocks will hurt much more. |
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Aug 2 2013, 02:51 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 01:39 PM) Depends on timing. If went in only in end 2011, and not out by now, sure lau sai I have some % in gold. Although my average price over 20-30 years is low, but in % return wise, no fight with property and stock market. I think gold return is only on par with FD rate. |
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Aug 2 2013, 02:54 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 02:51 PM) Depends on timing. If went in only in end 2011, and not out by now, sure lau sai I have some % in gold. Although my average price over 20-30 years is low, but in % return wise, no fight with property and stock market. I think gold return is only on par with FD rate. |
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Aug 2 2013, 02:56 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(kochin @ Aug 2 2013, 02:35 PM) good sharing. let's take a look at property as an example. the zest. launch circa 2008/2009. launch price approx RM200psf. say 1100sf apt at RM240k. DP = RM24k fast forward to now circa RM460psf. So approx RM506k. take gross profit = approx rm266k / RM24k (vested capital) 1108% over 5 years = 222% p.a. not sure whether the above calculation is right or not. But chance of a lifetime of property boom may not happen again. Slow appreciation more likely in future, but doubling of value in short 5 years very hard already |
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Aug 2 2013, 03:07 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 2 2013, 02:42 PM) Yes, that is what i meant by somebody who invest in stocks and properties, i heard that they gain on both portfolios, or like you where gain on property only but no gain on stocks. I never heard of somebody who invests in both portfolio where he gain from stocks but dont gain anything from property. Never heard of such thing happen to anybody. My stock gave decent returns actually. How not to gain some money when index went up to as high as 1800 ? Then if the doomsday prophecy from the down camp comes true, u are screwed either in stocks or properties i guess, but stocks will hurt much more. Yea in malaysian context, stock did fall from 1200 to 600 points from July - Dec 1997, and further down to 200+. But property market I did not hear a 50% price fall in short 1/2 year. In terms of risk, stock is higher than property, based on history of this country. Property is very steady in comparison This post has been edited by EddyLB: Aug 2 2013, 03:28 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 03:09 PM
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1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
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Aug 2 2013, 03:11 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ma...rs-exaggerated/
Whats gonna happen when all this hot money vanishes? G better have some spectacular fiscal plan to boost productivity/ growth... I have a feeling, someone is gonna ask the rakyat for ideas very soon... This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 2 2013, 03:17 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 03:30 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
am a believer that stock returns are much better and higher than properties.
more liquid too. but one very important thing to consider. risk is very much higher. the padini example quoted is one of those rare stocks that gave extremely well returns. similiarly to PBB reinvestment story that THP tells shareholders every year. nevertheless, we would always see extreme cases in all sort of investment. but how to consistently sustain the momentum of doing well everytime, all the time? |
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Aug 2 2013, 03:32 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
hahaha, the article sound like a mouth piece for govt.
BNM intervene a lot past few days. how much nobody know at this moment, but judging from last month milder storm, nearly 3b has injected. so, this round should be bigger. The credit crunch is the aftereffect from recent China policy. What to do? Our economy is too much dependence on China now. it sneeze we get cold. i am not a fan of conspiracy but I still incline to think the recent diesel shortage has something to do with fund outflow (or MGS maturity). it needs real skill to cook 2 pots with just 1 cover. QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 2 2013, 03:11 PM) http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ma...rs-exaggerated/ Whats gonna happen when all this hot money vanishes? G better have some spectacular fiscal plan to boost productivity/ growth... I have a feeling, someone is gonna ask the rakyat for ideas very soon... |
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Aug 2 2013, 03:55 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Aug 2 2013, 12:20 PM) If money not enough, just focus 1 thing at one time will do. Haha, but research is fun! My research has led me to the conclusion that the timing of bubble bursts in asset markets are inherently unpredictable by the layperson, and I look on with bemusement on much of the discussion here about how to predict with a crash with certainty. I felt that Singapore's property bubble ought to have burst in 2008/9, and I organised my finances around that happening, but it didn't. The problem was that I failed to predict the success of the QE experiment in containing the financial crisis, and in flooding safe havens like Singapore with unlimited amounts of cheap liquidity such that mortgage rates were half that of inflation. Similarly today, I still have no idea what impact Abenomics is going to have on us, i.e. whether it can cancel out QE tapering, whether and how other countries like China will respond etc. I also have no idea how much of our RM 433B in reserves BNM will be willing to burn to save homebuyers in the event of an impending crash. At the end, due to my limited intellect, all I can do is try to work around the risk of a crash, and not bet everything on it. A lot of people wasting too much time just for research and research. Every field can make money and every field can also send you to hell. Just need to focus P/s : For those who has at least 5 mil cash in hand, you can do research, research and research, diversify yr portfolio Stock is not necessarily more dangerous than property. The risks are just different, and it's actually easier to hold on to stock than property in a crash because you don't have monthly payment commitments and an illiquid asset that cannot be converted into cash. In 97, the equities market collapsed but not the residential property market. This is easily explained by the fact that the AFC was caused by excessive corporate leverage, leading profitable companies to become unprofitable when debt payment obligations are magnified by a collapsing currency and an increasing interest rate. On the other hand, household debt was low and prices of housing were reasonable relative to fundamentals. Follow the debt, I say, and you'll find where your risks lie. In any event, even if stagnation is more likely, the risk of an unexpected crash happening is very real and very significant, but too many people like to pretend that this risk does not exist. Due to high leverage and exposure to nothing but property, many out there will not survive a crash. Currently, the biggest risk factor to overleveraged households is the outflow of hot money, leading to a decrease in the value of the Ringgit, and an increase in inflation leading to pressure on the part of BNM to raise interest rates to protect the currency and to manage inflation. If you trace back my earlier posts back in V6 and V7 I hypothesised that the property booms happening simultaneously across emerging markets with little relationship with each other appears to be a symptom of the policy responses in developed countries to the global crisis leading to huge swathes of hot money flooding the region, and is not really caused by domestic factors. This hot money is transient, and won't last forever. If and when QE reverses, so will the hot money and our fortunes. Currently, we are already seeing a drastic weakening in the MYR due to an outflow of hot money. Personally, I found this weakening a bit of an overreaction, as tapering has not even started yet! I'm waiting for a correction before I continue moving my MYR out into USD assets (As I've been doing for more than a year |
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Aug 2 2013, 04:21 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 03:07 PM) My stock gave decent returns actually. How not to gain some money when index went up to as high as 1800 ? Exactly my point.Yea in malaysian context, stock did fall from 1200 to 600 points from July - Dec 1997, and further down to 200+. But property market I did not hear a 50% price fall in short 1/2 year. In terms of risk, stock is higher than property, based on history of this country. Property is very steady in comparison |
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Aug 2 2013, 05:45 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
The PM now probably feels he should have lost the GE, in hindsight
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Aug 2 2013, 06:06 PM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
http://my.news.yahoo.com/penang-turns-cons...-085100075.html
Please continue to push the property price up. We are now official Spain nation Lets see how our job going to further shrink for construction job to replace. This post has been edited by Steven83: Aug 2 2013, 06:10 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 07:04 PM
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Senior Member
986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 2 2013, 03:55 PM) Haha, but research is fun! My research has led me to the conclusion that the timing of bubble bursts in asset markets are inherently unpredictable by the layperson, and I look on with bemusement on much of the discussion here about how to predict with a crash with certainty. I felt that Singapore's property bubble ought to have burst in 2008/9, and I organised my finances around that happening, but it didn't. The problem was that I failed to predict the success of the QE experiment in containing the financial crisis, and in flooding safe havens like Singapore with unlimited amounts of cheap liquidity such that mortgage rates were half that of inflation. Similarly today, I still have no idea what impact Abenomics is going to have on us, i.e. whether it can cancel out QE tapering, whether and how other countries like China will respond etc. I also have no idea how much of our RM 433B in reserves BNM will be willing to burn to save homebuyers in the event of an impending crash. At the end, due to my limited intellect, all I can do is try to work around the risk of a crash, and not bet everything on it. Wow... Very long and informative post... Thanks... I just wish to add that the weakening of RM may not necessarily be caused by the tapering of QE but most likely the weakness or should I say relative potential of the economy to provide above average returns... Investors are seeing this and maybe reacting to it by pulling their funds away to other emerging markets as well as the recovering US... Just too many factors indicating a rise in Interest rates I wonder whether those highly leveraged can afford this added stress to their financials and how long can they do it for... May turn very ugly especially if neighbouring economies are more competitive...Stock is not necessarily more dangerous than property. The risks are just different, and it's actually easier to hold on to stock than property in a crash because you don't have monthly payment commitments and an illiquid asset that cannot be converted into cash. In 97, the equities market collapsed but not the residential property market. This is easily explained by the fact that the AFC was caused by excessive corporate leverage, leading profitable companies to become unprofitable when debt payment obligations are magnified by a collapsing currency and an increasing interest rate. On the other hand, household debt was low and prices of housing were reasonable relative to fundamentals. Follow the debt, I say, and you'll find where your risks lie. In any event, even if stagnation is more likely, the risk of an unexpected crash happening is very real and very significant, but too many people like to pretend that this risk does not exist. Due to high leverage and exposure to nothing but property, many out there will not survive a crash. Currently, the biggest risk factor to overleveraged households is the outflow of hot money, leading to a decrease in the value of the Ringgit, and an increase in inflation leading to pressure on the part of BNM to raise interest rates to protect the currency and to manage inflation. If you trace back my earlier posts back in V6 and V7 I hypothesised that the property booms happening simultaneously across emerging markets with little relationship with each other appears to be a symptom of the policy responses in developed countries to the global crisis leading to huge swathes of hot money flooding the region, and is not really caused by domestic factors. This hot money is transient, and won't last forever. If and when QE reverses, so will the hot money and our fortunes. Currently, we are already seeing a drastic weakening in the MYR due to an outflow of hot money. Personally, I found this weakening a bit of an overreaction, as tapering has not even started yet! I'm waiting for a correction before I continue moving my MYR out into USD assets (As I've been doing for more than a year |
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Aug 2 2013, 07:29 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(Steven83 @ Aug 2 2013, 06:06 PM) http://my.news.yahoo.com/penang-turns-cons...-085100075.html to me, this is very bad news. if penang as the bedrock of boland mfg thinks its a goner, tough.Please continue to push the property price up. We are now official Spain nation Lets see how our job going to further shrink for construction job to replace. in the old days, sg did that - plough money incl cpf into constr when recession arrives. that actually worked, but they r passed that now, more in to services n trade. here, gud times, bad times, just build n constr out of trouble. may not work tis time with so much debt overhang. of course, the leakages go on regardless... very dark days ahead... more so when focus seems to be dogs n canteens.... This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 2 2013, 07:30 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 07:50 PM
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560 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
QUOTE(Steven83 @ Aug 2 2013, 06:06 PM) http://my.news.yahoo.com/penang-turns-cons...-085100075.html Its not as bad as you think.Please continue to push the property price up. We are now official Spain nation Lets see how our job going to further shrink for construction job to replace. We are different from Spain and Greece because their cost of labour is far more expensive. Its true that Spain, Greece, and other EU countries and the Malaysia government spend too much, but because our labour cost is lower, businesses move to low cost regions during a downturn. Our ringgit going down against the USD is actually also a good thing because it makes our exports even cheaper. In Australia, they were bragging how high their currency is against the USD, but then came the announcement Ford was pulling out their car manufacturing from Australia. In fact manufacturing in Australia is only relatively small sector. The Malaysian economy can still be saved by the private sector. Do you think the MNCs in Malaysia are sitting still while the rest of the world become more competitive? In Penang, local management in MNCs like Intel, Altera, Sony, Agilent, etc. are working hard to transform even if the government does not. Working hard to bring in more product lines, jobs, etc. I admit that MIDA does work hard as well, but you should be thanking the Malaysian Managers in these MNCs to not just say, we are cheap, but we are also capable. Not just Penang, but elsewhere in Malaysia. However. I would be extra cautious in property investment in 2013. |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:41 PM
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352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
Rental are really crazy..some places listed as higher than another place with facilities..rental look like its going down..
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Aug 2 2013, 10:52 PM
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294 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:54 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
With sarcasm, do you think these people are just pure investors or homebuyers? Hahaha...
![]() bbb mode is back in subang jaya with @cylee pic from empire remix2 This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 2 2013, 10:54 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 10:56 PM
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294 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
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Aug 2 2013, 11:01 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
QUOTE(chengcheng @ Aug 2 2013, 10:56 PM) Developer sell SOS... but buyers think can be like Hostel for Segi Uni new campus. The area is very quiet now... 720 sf - RM419,800 688 sf - RM408,800 596 sf - RM350,800 583 sf - RM350,800 450 sf - from RM262,800 |
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Aug 2 2013, 11:11 PM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
QUOTE(tigana @ Aug 2 2013, 07:50 PM) Its not as bad as you think. If you notice well, a lot of factory worker are moving to property region because of salary issue. Let's don't discuss about Greece yet as Greece crisis has nothing to do with property. Yes, Spain cost of labour is far more expensive but at the same time they having a lot of foreign workers as well. My future prediction is all the private sector are mostly construction. I don't believe that purely construction income are good for our nation as property can't be export. Investor may come and buy the property....all they want but don't forget when they want to sell it...who they can sell it to? In the end, the property are going back to Malaysia. This is a crisis that soon coming. What I highlight is Msia are going Spain way as Spain majority private sector are just construction before the property crisis.We are different from Spain and Greece because their cost of labour is far more expensive. Its true that Spain, Greece, and other EU countries and the Malaysia government spend too much, but because our labour cost is lower, businesses move to low cost regions during a downturn. Our ringgit going down against the USD is actually also a good thing because it makes our exports even cheaper. In Australia, they were bragging how high their currency is against the USD, but then came the announcement Ford was pulling out their car manufacturing from Australia. In fact manufacturing in Australia is only relatively small sector. The Malaysian economy can still be saved by the private sector. Do you think the MNCs in Malaysia are sitting still while the rest of the world become more competitive? In Penang, local management in MNCs like Intel, Altera, Sony, Agilent, etc. are working hard to transform even if the government does not. Working hard to bring in more product lines, jobs, etc. I admit that MIDA does work hard as well, but you should be thanking the Malaysian Managers in these MNCs to not just say, we are cheap, but we are also capable. Not just Penang, but elsewhere in Malaysia. However. I would be extra cautious in property investment in 2013. Oh ya, I know the local management are doing it hard. But, statistical won't lie. The MNC are going down after so many year of tried hard. Our MNC industry has been stagnant for more than 10 years before it start drops few years ago. Anyhow, I will be watching This post has been edited by Steven83: Aug 2 2013, 11:22 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 11:12 PM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
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Aug 2 2013, 11:14 PM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 2 2013, 07:29 PM) to me, this is very bad news. if penang as the bedrock of boland mfg thinks its a goner, tough. They can't afford to mass around with their property this time, or their people are going to sleep on the street or in Johor in the old days, sg did that - plough money incl cpf into constr when recession arrives. that actually worked, but they r passed that now, more in to services n trade. here, gud times, bad times, just build n constr out of trouble. may not work tis time with so much debt overhang. of course, the leakages go on regardless... very dark days ahead... more so when focus seems to be dogs n canteens.... This post has been edited by Steven83: Aug 2 2013, 11:16 PM |
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Aug 2 2013, 11:40 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
preview event held early this morning...
![]() la thea residences 16 sierra puchong south This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 2 2013, 11:41 PM |
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Aug 3 2013, 12:29 AM
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352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
QUOTE(chengcheng @ Aug 2 2013, 10:52 PM) yup apartments listed higher or similar rental to a condo. or that the rental within the same building differs widely. so some rental rate is likely to go down. those enter late might not be able to pay their monthly repayment then. |
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Aug 3 2013, 11:15 AM
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408 posts Joined: Dec 2010 |
QUOTE(kochin @ Aug 2 2013, 02:35 PM) good sharing. The good for property investment over shares:-let's take a look at property as an example. the zest. launch circa 2008/2009. launch price approx RM200psf. say 1100sf apt at RM240k. DP = RM24k fast forward to now circa RM460psf. So approx RM506k. take gross profit = approx rm266k / RM24k (vested capital) 1108% over 5 years = 222% p.a. not sure whether the above calculation is right or not. 1). Low interest rate 4.3% 2). The profit is calculated based on vested capital not the cost of the house. 3). It is tangible. You can buy for staying or investment. For shares investment, it is intangible. 4). less risky but good for appreciation. (Average 8% p.a. increment at least) No doubt sifu kochin is good at property investment. This post has been edited by Nepo: Aug 3 2013, 11:19 AM |
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Aug 3 2013, 01:09 PM
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560 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 2 2013, 10:54 PM) With sarcasm, do you think these people are just pure investors or homebuyers? Hahaha... Isn't Empire remix on commercial strata? So I would think most are investors hoping to rent out.![]() bbb mode is back in subang jaya with @cylee pic from empire remix2 I could be wrong. |
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Aug 3 2013, 10:24 PM
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306 posts Joined: Dec 2011 |
once upon a time, ppl used to Q for 3 days for new property launches. Now at least you get to ballot.
BUY BUY BUY ppl .... u can at least make 2 or 3x. So far it has only gone up 2-3x, i think it got room to grow another 2x. All condos will be priced above RM1k psf from the current avg RM500psf. So average 1000sf unit will sell for RM1 million ... BUY now before it is too late ppl ... |
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Aug 3 2013, 11:06 PM
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1,946 posts Joined: Aug 2009 |
QUOTE(ibwo @ Aug 3 2013, 10:24 PM) once upon a time, ppl used to Q for 3 days for new property launches. Now at least you get to ballot. what is 2-3x? sap sap sui oni... shanghai prop price gone up more than 10x in 10 years time. scary or not BUY BUY BUY ppl .... u can at least make 2 or 3x. So far it has only gone up 2-3x, i think it got room to grow another 2x. All condos will be priced above RM1k psf from the current avg RM500psf. So average 1000sf unit will sell for RM1 million ... BUY now before it is too late ppl ... |
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Aug 3 2013, 11:36 PM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(ibwo @ Aug 3 2013, 10:24 PM) once upon a time, ppl used to Q for 3 days for new property launches. Now at least you get to ballot. Apartment within 3rd ring road in Beijing and Shanghai is over rmb50k psm. Why only rm1k psf in kl not rm2k+ psf?BUY BUY BUY ppl .... u can at least make 2 or 3x. So far it has only gone up 2-3x, i think it got room to grow another 2x. All condos will be priced above RM1k psf from the current avg RM500psf. So average 1000sf unit will sell for RM1 million ... BUY now before it is too late ppl ... |
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Aug 4 2013, 05:06 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
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Aug 4 2013, 06:46 AM
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1,614 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(ibwo @ Aug 3 2013, 10:24 PM) once upon a time, ppl used to Q for 3 days for new property launches. Now at least you get to ballot. How many u bought?? 😄😄BUY BUY BUY ppl .... u can at least make 2 or 3x. So far it has only gone up 2-3x, i think it got room to grow another 2x. All condos will be priced above RM1k psf from the current avg RM500psf. So average 1000sf unit will sell for RM1 million ... BUY now before it is too late ppl ... |
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Aug 4 2013, 06:50 AM
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1,614 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
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Aug 4 2013, 07:03 AM
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1,614 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 05:31 PM) Oh yeah Bank bumiputera does not exist anymore. My point was, during these recession period in Malaysia, stocks hurt the most compared to property. Bank Bumi merged with another bank to form Bumiputra bank ( ie BCB), and was later merged with 2 banks over 6 years ago to form CIMB with Dato Nasir leading the group.Since CIMB was formed in 2006, it has acquired southern bank in 2007, and a list of foreign banking entities... |
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Aug 4 2013, 07:57 AM
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1,614 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Aug 2 2013, 03:07 PM) My stock gave decent returns actually. How not to gain some money when index went up to as high as 1800 ? Bro, thanks for sharing.... 🔮🔮🔮Yea in malaysian context, stock did fall from 1200 to 600 points from July - Dec 1997, and further down to 200+. But property market I did not hear a 50% price fall in short 1/2 year. In terms of risk, stock is higher than property, based on history of this country. Property is very steady in comparison Going forward with BNM concern on debt and property market cooling on BNM measures: With the recent Fitch rating on bolehland and weakening MYR, what is the impact on the share market, given that our share market is at alltime high? Can buy counter with foreign export to USD?? What is the best investment strategy for the short term and 3-5 years? Anybody?? |
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Aug 4 2013, 09:06 AM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
QUOTE(hondaracer @ Aug 4 2013, 07:03 AM) Bank Bumi merged with another bank to form Bumiputra bank ( ie BCB), and was later merged with 2 banks over 6 years ago to form CIMB with Dato Nasir leading the group. Yup it incurred so much loss that another bank was asked to save it. In other words it was bailed out, same thing happened with AIG but US government bought AIG after they learned the mistake of letting lehman go bankrupt.Since CIMB was formed in 2006, it has acquired southern bank in 2007, and a list of foreign banking entities... |
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Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
i admit i can't follow a lot of what's written here, so maybe guys like agent diary and anon can help out, thanks.
for those who who keep saying "inflation-gst-tax-weak rm will just keep pushing local prop prices higher, people still buy, dun wait", do read this fresh , very long and complex article and analysis, see if that is consistent with yr beliefs n hopes... QUOTE Another side effect from the decrease in the money availability is that it will help push the short term interest rate up. We do not expect to see any credit easing from the government anytime soon as they are serious in reigning in the excessive credit expansion from the past. Due to the past policy on credit easing it resulted in an explosion of household debt which is one of the highest in the region standing at 83% to GDP. The following chart shows Malaysia Loans to Private Sector from July 2011 to May 2013. As you can see the month of May 2013 tops the chart with the total of MYR 1244470.60 billion loan out to the private which includes the household and business. Hence our Government has no choice but to put a hold on further credit easing and as a result there is less money available for loans. The decrease in money available in the economy leads to a decrease in investment and spending as the availability of capital becomes more expensive to obtain. Banks which have obligations such as to make available funds for the redemption of Wealth Management products will have no choice but to borrow from the interbank market or KLIBOR (Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offer Rates) which is more expensive or through the issuance of new products. Hence with the difficulty in obtaining finances through the interbank market this will help push the interbank rate higher in the short run. This limiting of access to capital also slows down economic growth as investment decreases. http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...2#axzz2aznAcibb This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM |
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Aug 4 2013, 10:14 PM
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Junior Member
279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
Sam's article about credit issue is good and should be taken seriously though he is optimistic that thing could turn around after 2013. But the article cover mainly from the perspective of trade and balance payment. Another part which he did not cover is the world credit market trend which is growing thirst for return that gradually moving away from sovereign securities especially the emerging market like us.
To make thing easier, when rate ups, exactly the opposite of what common belief, will take place, that price generally will down. More so the more it's leveraged. Not to crystal balling, but what we will see next is some big ticket projects cost will be shooting up greatly. So don't be surprise when we may even heard some of them will be delayed or postponed. Currently BNM is fighting fire from 2 fronts: 1) intervene to replace the matured bond and 2) credit shortage (credit tightening or credit squeeze? they look like the same, take your own bet). Now, the third front is marching near the door, the trade deficit (it will drain our reserve quickly as payment has to commit to fill the gap) as export continue to plunge while import remains high (still large capital require as many construction taking place at the moment). I'm not pessimist, just a messenger. QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2013, 07:03 PM) i admit i can't follow a lot of what's written here, so maybe guys like agent diary and anon can help out, thanks. for those who who keep saying "inflation-gst-tax-weak rm will just keep pushing local prop prices higher, people still buy, dun wait", do read this fresh , very long and complex article and analysis, see if that is consistent with yr beliefs n hopes... |
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Aug 4 2013, 10:29 PM
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Junior Member
117 posts Joined: Feb 2013 |
QUOTE(hondaracer @ Aug 4 2013, 07:57 AM) Bro, thanks for sharing.... 🔮🔮🔮 Maybe can look at rubber glove stocks eg.harta & timber stocks eg.taan, jtiasa, wtkGoing forward with BNM concern on debt and property market cooling on BNM measures: With the recent Fitch rating on bolehland and weakening MYR, what is the impact on the share market, given that our share market is at alltime high? Can buy counter with foreign export to USD?? What is the best investment strategy for the short term and 3-5 years? Anybody?? |
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Aug 5 2013, 12:32 AM
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Senior Member
1,864 posts Joined: Apr 2011 |
QUOTE(hondaracer @ Aug 4 2013, 07:57 AM) Bro, thanks for sharing.... 🔮🔮🔮 IMHO, if you think that the interest rate will increase, then property market will be adversely affected. It is the extent of the increase which will determine the degree of the property market downturn.Going forward with BNM concern on debt and property market cooling on BNM measures: With the recent Fitch rating on bolehland and weakening MYR, what is the impact on the share market, given that our share market is at alltime high? Can buy counter with foreign export to USD?? What is the best investment strategy for the short term and 3-5 years? Anybody?? As for stock market, if the market collapse, every company will be affected, foreign export company included. Even companies which export to aliens in neptune will not be spared. Maybe the recovery for these companies will be faster. What is the best strategy ? Nobody has the answer. If you opt to be conservative, then stay liquid in a basket of currencies This post has been edited by EddyLB: Aug 5 2013, 12:34 AM |
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Aug 5 2013, 02:54 AM
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18 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 2 2013, 10:54 PM) With sarcasm, do you think these people are just pure investors or homebuyers? Hahaha... I'm one of the low income group, working as landscaper. According to my boss this phenomena is normal, Most of them are not even a buyer or investor, they just an investor relative or friends helping them to promote and pretend as buyer,the fact is some unit sold out long time ago before lauching, My boss also sapu two unit from the XXXdeveloper, and the remaining unit will only sell out to the real buyer, and push those buyer to buy faster otherwise no chance. pity them buy much more expensive house after flip at least two time ![]() bbb mode is back in subang jaya with @cylee pic from empire remix2 Guese this always work! I myself also keep enroll in NUskin supplement activity 1 year ago, They also using almost the same tactic too. The member told me you have to act fast otherwise no chance, but the fact is the chance always there......The weird things is it always work on some people! it the what we call business strategy? I'm still naive sorry~~ This post has been edited by WonPeter: Aug 5 2013, 03:01 AM |
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Aug 5 2013, 03:41 AM
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18 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
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Aug 5 2013, 06:50 AM
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All Stars
13,759 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
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Aug 5 2013, 10:51 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(WonPeter @ Aug 5 2013, 02:54 AM) I'm one of the low income group, working as landscaper. According to my boss this phenomena is normal, Most of them are not even a buyer or investor, they just an investor relative or friends helping them to promote and pretend as buyer,the fact is some unit sold out long time ago before lauching, My boss also sapu two unit from the XXXdeveloper, and the remaining unit will only sell out to the real buyer, and push those buyer to buy faster otherwise no chance. pity them buy much more expensive house after flip at least two time What is this NUskin supplement activity about? Some MLM?Guese this always work! I myself also keep enroll in NUskin supplement activity 1 year ago, They also using almost the same tactic too. The member told me you have to act fast otherwise no chance, but the fact is the chance always there......The weird things is it always work on some people! it the what we call business strategy? I'm still naive sorry~~ |
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Aug 5 2013, 01:06 PM
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Junior Member
352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
So prices going up or down? Asking prices seems still going up but in my case bank appear stricter in processing my second loan.
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Aug 5 2013, 02:27 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(axisresidence17 @ Aug 5 2013, 01:06 PM) So prices going up or down? Asking prices seems still going up but in my case bank appear stricter in processing my second loan. Prices will continue to go up because of momentum, but the current cycle seems to be running out of steam. I hear on the grapevine that subsale volume is slowing, and this indicates that rising asking prices are not being accepted by subsale buyers. New launch prices are still increasing thanks to easy financing by panel banks, but it seems that bank policy in general is getting stricter. My preferred bank, of which I am a so-called "premium customer", refused to approve a mortgage for me notwithstanding that the loan is only at 70% margin and is a mere 2x my gross declared income. Reason given was inter alia that the selling price was "too optimistic". I knew that of course, but wasn't really bothered as I could afford it. Ultimately though I was forced to use the developer's panel bank who apparently had no problems with the selling price. I suspect that the system of "panel banks" cozying up with developers to offer loans is a potential moral hazard risk, as there seems to be pressure to approve ultra-optimistic valuations, and approve buyers more easily in order to get more panel work. |
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Aug 5 2013, 02:52 PM
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352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 5 2013, 02:27 PM) Prices will continue to go up because of momentum, but the current cycle seems to be running out of steam. I hear on the grapevine that subsale volume is slowing, and this indicates that rising asking prices are not being accepted by subsale buyers. New launch prices are still increasing thanks to easy financing by panel banks, but it seems that bank policy in general is getting stricter. My preferred bank, of which I am a so-called "premium customer", refused to approve a mortgage for me notwithstanding that the loan is only at 70% margin and is a mere 2x my gross declared income. Reason given was inter alia that the selling price was "too optimistic". I knew that of course, but wasn't really bothered as I could afford it. Ultimately though I was forced to use the developer's panel bank who apparently had no problems with the selling price. Yup I dont mind if my financing is slashed even to 70 percent as I really think I cud afford it and the price I locked in is still slightly high but not too bad compare to the current asking price. But I do have to admit that my finance is in need of slight reorganisation but shouldnt be a problem as I just sold one of my apartment. Guess I will have to ask for extension from my seller and see how it pans out.I suspect that the system of "panel banks" cozying up with developers to offer loans is a potential moral hazard risk, as there seems to be pressure to approve ultra-optimistic valuations, and approve buyers more easily in order to get more panel work. |
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Aug 5 2013, 02:53 PM
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352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
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Aug 5 2013, 03:00 PM
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352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
Anyway from my experience selling it is not that the buyer did not accept the asking price. Its just that bank wont give valuation and so buyer has to top up their own money. Like for example buying 200k apartment bank valuation is only 120k. Then buyer will have to top up 80k. But if buyer have 80k they would be in position to buy even for a property that is 800k! So doesnt make sense to buy 200k property! But at the same time undercon for similar size is selling at says 300k but with less entry which also doesnt make sense. I for one will go for the 200k but I wont be able to get finance! In the end somethjng will have to give in!
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Aug 5 2013, 05:48 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(Nepo @ Aug 5 2013, 02:40 PM) I wouldn't categorise myself as down camp, as I don't think my views on the property market are so simple as to be capable of being categorised into a simple "up" or "down". I like to think of myself a realist who attempts to estimate risk and act based on facts, logical analysis and intuition instead of emotions and oversimplified heuristics. If you read my post history over the past year, you will notice that I never agreed with the DDD camp that the bubble will burst any time soon. Instead, I maintain that our property market is showing the classic signs of a bubble, and appears to be supported by signs of a growing debt bubble across Asia fed by an exodus of hot money from developed economies. Nevertheless, based on my research into property bubbles around the world, I have concluded that the outcome of our bubble is still uncertain at this stage, and in fact there is even a risk that it may grow further.Currently, I find the property market to be at a medium to high risk stage due to increasingly poor fundamentals, but due to my increasing income, I need to hedge some of my cash in assets other than cash as I cannot allow all my income to enter FD. Although cash is king in the event of a crisis, I do not wish to hold too much cash as I had expected the MYR to weaken. Putting too much cash in the KLCI also has its own risks for other reasons. which I shall not go into here. In my view, the property market is not necessarily doomed to crash as my expectation of interest rates rising in anticipation of inflation may be defeated due to policy changes which are inherently unpredictable. For instance, the Australian property bubble which started collapsing in 2008/2009 was saved by major government intervention, and it then started growing rapidly again. Ideally, I would prefer if BNM and other central banks and governments would always act rationally, but I fully expect they may end up act irrationally for political purposes. Consequently, I would not recommend anybody to exit the property market completely so long as mortgage debt levels remain low relative to income, and so long as residential property makes up only a small proportion of total investment exposure. I fully understand if you wish to take a different approach towards investing, i.e. by leveraging up on the property market. As I had noted earlier in this forum, it is a depressing fact indeed that many Malaysians have no access to capital, and have little prospect of gaining wealth aside from gambling their futures taking on high levels of debt. That to me is a major risk factor as well, as the residential property market is now overflowing with unsophisticated investors who are leveraged to the hilt, pushing our household debt levels to about 85% of GDP. My personal (and admittedly limited) observations in Malaysia and elsewhere shows me that the level of financial knowledge of the average Malaysian investor is shockingly low relative to those in other countries. An economy is only healthy if wealth gains comes from productivity and value-add, rather than asset inflation and credit expansion. Relying on asset inflation as an investment strategy is inherently unsustainable if this inflation is not backed up by growing yields, but many of our market participants do not have the capacity to appreciate this. |
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Aug 5 2013, 07:16 PM
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5 posts Joined: Aug 2013 |
Apart from price and location. What is the others field that I have to look into when deciding to buy a property??
Currently plan to buy a apartment/condo 200k and plan to stay with my family at there for at least 10 years. Just wondering what others aspect I have to take into consideration before making buy decision |
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Aug 5 2013, 07:56 PM
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352 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
Agreed. Still uncertain which way this is gonna go. Plus govt intervention and outside factors also play roles. But of course some people cant see shades of colours they just want to see black or white..
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 5 2013, 05:48 PM) I wouldn't categorise myself as down camp, as I don't think my views on the property market are so simple as to be capable of being categorised into a simple "up" or "down". I like to think of myself a realist who attempts to estimate risk and act based on facts, logical analysis and intuition instead of emotions and oversimplified heuristics. If you read my post history over the past year, you will notice that I never agreed with the DDD camp that the bubble will burst any time soon. Instead, I maintain that our property market is showing the classic signs of a bubble, and appears to be supported by signs of a growing debt bubble across Asia fed by an exodus of hot money from developed economies. Nevertheless, based on my research into property bubbles around the world, I have concluded that the outcome of our bubble is still uncertain at this stage, and in fact there is even a risk that it may grow further. Currently, I find the property market to be at a medium to high risk stage due to increasingly poor fundamentals, but due to my increasing income, I need to hedge some of my cash in assets other than cash as I cannot allow all my income to enter FD. Although cash is king in the event of a crisis, I do not wish to hold too much cash as I had expected the MYR to weaken. Putting too much cash in the KLCI also has its own risks for other reasons. which I shall not go into here. In my view, the property market is not necessarily doomed to crash as my expectation of interest rates rising in anticipation of inflation may be defeated due to policy changes which are inherently unpredictable. For instance, the Australian property bubble which started collapsing in 2008/2009 was saved by major government intervention, and it then started growing rapidly again. Ideally, I would prefer if BNM and other central banks and governments would always act rationally, but I fully expect they may end up act irrationally for political purposes. Consequently, I would not recommend anybody to exit the property market completely so long as mortgage debt levels remain low relative to income, and so long as residential property makes up only a small proportion of total investment exposure. I fully understand if you wish to take a different approach towards investing, i.e. by leveraging up on the property market. As I had noted earlier in this forum, it is a depressing fact indeed that many Malaysians have no access to capital, and have little prospect of gaining wealth aside from gambling their futures taking on high levels of debt. That to me is a major risk factor as well, as the residential property market is now overflowing with unsophisticated investors who are leveraged to the hilt, pushing our household debt levels to about 85% of GDP. My personal (and admittedly limited) observations in Malaysia and elsewhere shows me that the level of financial knowledge of the average Malaysian investor is shockingly low relative to those in other countries. An economy is only healthy if wealth gains comes from productivity and value-add, rather than asset inflation and credit expansion. Relying on asset inflation as an investment strategy is inherently unsustainable if this inflation is not backed up by growing yields, but many of our market participants do not have the capacity to appreciate this. |
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Aug 6 2013, 08:37 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...ore/766250.html
Hmmm... is this news telling us something about future property prices in bolehland? |
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Aug 6 2013, 08:46 AM
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1,266 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
Bubble could happen in 2015/2016. This is some prediction by bankers. Up to you and me to buy it.
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Aug 6 2013, 09:41 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/08/05/...adds-to-unease/
tsk tsk tsk... boleh land is really boleh land... with everything dropping from currency to trade surplus somehow they can still find the time and focus to give hand-outs... LoL!!!! How typical... Hmmm... wonder how much longer till we adopt India's approach (raise interest rates) maybe by then it might be too little too late... This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 6 2013, 09:42 AM |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:03 AM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
Just sharing ya....
BANDAR MALAYSIA - The Future of Kuala Lumpur Where Global Citizens Meet Proposal Rendering Only Credit: DesignCircles.Com Caption Written by: - http://www.patchay.com/p/kuala-lumpur-urba...velopments.html - http://www.patchay.com/p/kuala-lumpur-urba...lopments-2.html BANDAR MALAYSIA ::: Internationally-acclaimed architects Broadway Malyan have been chosen by 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) to design a comprehensive masterplan for Bandar Malaysia. Its masterplan, which was selected from a shortlist of six, will include a commercial district, cultural buildings and residential areas, including sustainable and affordable housing. ![]() Bandar Malaysia is envisioned to combine a vibrant mixed use community with a commercial district to foster creativity and innovation. It is set to become an international destination for culture and the arts showcasing Malaysia's diverse culture. ![]() It is located at the southern part of the City Centre, just approximately 5km away from the Petronas Twin Towers by car and its accessibility is further improved with the proposed mass rail transit linkages to reduce travel time. The site is easily accessible from major highways including the SMART Tunnel Highway, KL-Seremban Highway, East-West Highway and KL-Putrajaya Expressway. ![]() Formerly the Sungai Besi international airport that serves Kuala Lumpur from 1952 to 1965, it has since been used by the Royal Malaysian Air Force, Royal Malaysian Police Air Wing, the air unit of the Malaysian Fire and Rescue Department and the Royal Selangor Flying Club as their base. ![]() By 2014, the Bandar Malaysia project will involve the redevelopment of the site into a proposed carbon-neutral, green-rated urban centre of Kuala Lumpur. The intent is to undertake a mixed development project on the site which covers approximately 484 acres, or 196 hectares. The Draft Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020 has zoned the land for mixed development that will be able to yield a GFA of 84.3 million sq ft (excluding public amenities). ![]() This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 6 2013, 10:04 AM |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:18 AM
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4,482 posts Joined: Jul 2005 |
QUOTE(CloudAtla$ @ Aug 6 2013, 08:46 AM) Bubble is happening everyday as we speak. Do you mean bursting? 2015 is the year I predicted.. but we are still in 2013.. Looking at the new development if all of it continue to sell > RM500 psft.. I'm pretty sure it will happen sooner but either way.. Are you going to wait? For me.. No I won't. |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:30 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://www.imoney.my/articles/bankruptcy/
Good read... especially those in BBB mode... the trend also like property prices up up up... |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:32 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
http://samcheekong.blogspot.com/2013/07/ef...squeeze-on.html
Also find some information here useful... in case any of you missed out... |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:38 AM
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2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 10:03 AM) Just sharing ya.... Wow! So many good newsBANDAR MALAYSIA - The Future of Kuala Lumpur Where Global Citizens Meet Proposal Rendering Only Credit: DesignCircles.Com Caption Written by: - http://www.patchay.com/p/kuala-lumpur-urba...velopments.html - http://www.patchay.com/p/kuala-lumpur-urba...lopments-2.html BANDAR MALAYSIA ::: Internationally-acclaimed architects Broadway Malyan have been chosen by 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) to design a comprehensive masterplan for Bandar Malaysia. Its masterplan, which was selected from a shortlist of six, will include a commercial district, cultural buildings and residential areas, including sustainable and affordable housing. ![]() Bandar Malaysia is envisioned to combine a vibrant mixed use community with a commercial district to foster creativity and innovation. It is set to become an international destination for culture and the arts showcasing Malaysia's diverse culture. ![]() It is located at the southern part of the City Centre, just approximately 5km away from the Petronas Twin Towers by car and its accessibility is further improved with the proposed mass rail transit linkages to reduce travel time. The site is easily accessible from major highways including the SMART Tunnel Highway, KL-Seremban Highway, East-West Highway and KL-Putrajaya Expressway. ![]() Formerly the Sungai Besi international airport that serves Kuala Lumpur from 1952 to 1965, it has since been used by the Royal Malaysian Air Force, Royal Malaysian Police Air Wing, the air unit of the Malaysian Fire and Rescue Department and the Royal Selangor Flying Club as their base. ![]() By 2014, the Bandar Malaysia project will involve the redevelopment of the site into a proposed carbon-neutral, green-rated urban centre of Kuala Lumpur. The intent is to undertake a mixed development project on the site which covers approximately 484 acres, or 196 hectares. The Draft Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020 has zoned the land for mixed development that will be able to yield a GFA of 84.3 million sq ft (excluding public amenities). ![]() |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:41 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 08:37 AM) http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...ore/766250.html it's already sgd1=rm2.55. saying 2.50 is very polite!Hmmm... is this news telling us something about future property prices in bolehland? if things continue that way with no action, 2.60 is likely by yr end. sgreans will buy daily and eat daily stuff in johor with a bigger buck but i doubt there are that many wanting to lose in exchange rate and transaction costs despite some appr after 2-3 yrs. |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:44 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 09:41 AM) http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/08/05/...adds-to-unease/ such reports now coming out every week. all bad news - dwindling exports, rising mgs yields, cash handouts - all putting pressure on rates.tsk tsk tsk... boleh land is really boleh land... with everything dropping from currency to trade surplus somehow they can still find the time and focus to give hand-outs... LoL!!!! How typical... Hmmm... wonder how much longer till we adopt India's approach (raise interest rates) maybe by then it might be too little too late... when trade surplus becomes deficit, we'll see if bnm will raise rates. perhaps next meeting in sep... |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:48 AM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
The depreciation of ringgit is actually good news for our struggling exporters, particularly those SMEs, which have been lobbying for protection from Govt for some time. Iskandar Malaysia is amongst the property beneficiary from a weaker currency as it will help Iskandar to overweigh other upcoming cities in ASEAN in terms of investment prospects amongst Singaporeans.
Further to that, almost 400 bigger companies are refusing to follow the Minimum Wage guidelines as they felt the entire workforce will be skewed towards a gradual increment in salaries which these companies cannot afford to do so. The only way out is the companies must make some money first then invest in technology to improve productivity before hiking up everyone salaries. But analysts are concerned this may not come easy and may not even come before 2015. The biggest issue with Malaysia is lack of reforms on fiscal policy, bigger and bigger budget deficit due to increase in civil workforce, public debt ratio is reaching the ceiling, very high household debt and a dwindling trade surplus and current account. Our unemployment rate has also increased slightly, where critics say the increase is mainly in plantation sector and could be due to minimum wages that had essentially removed some bottom tier workers. This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 6 2013, 10:57 AM |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:53 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
LOL!!!! WoW!!!!
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Aug 6 2013, 11:05 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2013, 10:41 AM) it's already sgd1=rm2.55. saying 2.50 is very polite! If that happens, would it mean that there would be less for Johorians to consume?? Which would then leading to crowding out effect and push up overall consumer prices... meaning overall Johorians would be poorer and poorer (in terms of living standards)?? ... How saddening... I'm sure Johorians wouldn't like that... if things continue that way with no action, 2.60 is likely by yr end. sgreans will buy daily and eat daily stuff in johor with a bigger buck but i doubt there are that many wanting to lose in exchange rate and transaction costs despite some appr after 2-3 yrs. |
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Aug 6 2013, 11:08 AM
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551 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 11:05 AM) If that happens, would it mean that there would be less for Johorians to consume?? Which would then leading to crowding out effect and push up overall consumer prices... meaning overall Johorians would be poorer and poorer (in terms of living standards)?? ... How saddening... I'm sure Johorians wouldn't like that... And Johor is the "fixed deposit". Oops. Became Kopotiam discussion pulak. |
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Aug 6 2013, 11:19 AM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
Apologies for the off topic on Johor... anyway... here's another good article to read...
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...-says-economist Key points to take away from the article for me was:- "Debt-fuelled growth has let Malaysia plaster over the cracks of a softening economy already showing the signs that heralded the dotcom crash and Asian financial crisis" “Asia’s inconvenient truth, in short, is that the rise in debt has masked deteriorating growth fundamentals" "The troubling question now is: how much would growth have slowed if it wasn’t for the rise in debt?” I guess for the past few years a lot of funds (debts) have been dumped into properties to churn out overall growth... which does not create value (in terms of productivity) and the question is how in the world are they going to reverse this false value creation in properties (bearing in mind the illiquid nature of these assets) in order to create real sustainable growth fundamentals. This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 6 2013, 11:33 AM |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:13 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
Now bnm has to prop up the govt bond market on its own. this will put the inflation in 5th gear with turbo mode.
in fact rate already up for public and private corp borrowing. only left the OPR which is very near, even need not to wait till the Nov. QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 09:41 AM) http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/08/05/...adds-to-unease/ tsk tsk tsk... boleh land is really boleh land... with everything dropping from currency to trade surplus somehow they can still find the time and focus to give hand-outs... LoL!!!! How typical... Hmmm... wonder how much longer till we adopt India's approach (raise interest rates) maybe by then it might be too little too late... |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:14 PM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
hahahaha
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 10:48 AM) The depreciation of ringgit is actually good news for our struggling exporters, particularly those SMEs, which have been lobbying for protection from Govt for some time. Iskandar Malaysia is amongst the property beneficiary from a weaker currency as it will help Iskandar to overweigh other upcoming cities in ASEAN in terms of investment prospects amongst Singaporeans. Further to that, almost 400 bigger companies are refusing to follow the Minimum Wage guidelines as they felt the entire workforce will be skewed towards a gradual increment in salaries which these companies cannot afford to do so. The only way out is the companies must make some money first then invest in technology to improve productivity before hiking up everyone salaries. But analysts are concerned this may not come easy and may not even come before 2015. The biggest issue with Malaysia is lack of reforms on fiscal policy, bigger and bigger budget deficit due to increase in civil workforce, public debt ratio is reaching the ceiling, very high household debt and a dwindling trade surplus and current account. Our unemployment rate has also increased slightly, where critics say the increase is mainly in plantation sector and could be due to minimum wages that had essentially removed some bottom tier workers. |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:15 PM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
Ghost month coming
got ppl pantang dont buy new project on that month? and what reason you heard? |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:17 PM
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All Stars
10,314 posts Joined: Dec 2009 From: Malaysia |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 11:19 AM) Apologies for the off topic on Johor... anyway... here's another good article to read... interesting....http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...-says-economist Key points to take away from the article for me was:- "Debt-fuelled growth has let Malaysia plaster over the cracks of a softening economy already showing the signs that heralded the dotcom crash and Asian financial crisis" “Asia’s inconvenient truth, in short, is that the rise in debt has masked deteriorating growth fundamentals" "The troubling question now is: how much would growth have slowed if it wasn’t for the rise in debt?” I guess for the past few years a lot of funds (debts) have been dumped into properties to churn out overall growth... which does not create value (in terms of productivity) and the question is how in the world are they going to reverse this false value creation in properties (bearing in mind the illiquid nature of these assets) in order to create real sustainable growth fundamentals. |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:29 PM
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2,294 posts Joined: Sep 2011 |
i think the most important question now is whether ahjikor is doing anything to improve the economy and if Yes, what is it.
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Aug 6 2013, 12:30 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
QUOTE(katijar @ Aug 6 2013, 12:29 PM) i think the most important question now is whether ahjikor is doing anything to improve the economy and if Yes, what is it. Construction and oil/gas. So much work till dono wat to say.In the meantime, our best shopping malls are packed with people and people are makaning out. Imagine that day, all the resto in a popular mall was fully booked. Nia mah... This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 6 2013, 12:32 PM |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:48 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
Preliminary figures in today's business news. More debt more debts...
Best Ever Monthly Sales ::: Malaysia sold 66,895 units of vehicles in a single month of July 2013 versus 46,637 units in July 2012 Business Times | August 6, 2013 Read more >>> http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html The local automotive industry started the second half of the year in top gear as new vehicle sales hits one of its best monthly volume in history. According to Malaysia Automotive Institute (MAI) chief executive officer Madani Sahari, TIV soared to 66,895 units during the month. This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 6 2013, 12:49 PM |
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Aug 6 2013, 12:54 PM
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95 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
Raya promo that good? How was it last year i wonder. I would have thought taps are drying up by now
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Aug 6 2013, 01:00 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
This Sunday is the official Grand Launch with the Sultan of Johor. According to Iskandar insiders, more than 2,000 units of apartments have been pre-booked.
![]() News from TODAY @ Mediacorp Singapore. https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hpho...856238672_o.jpg source: TODAY |
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Aug 6 2013, 01:00 PM
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252 posts Joined: Jun 2012 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 11:19 AM) Apologies for the off topic on Johor... anyway... here's another good article to read... The magic of credit growth is that always creates an "illusion" of a sudden explosion in wealth creation, as households magically fast forward income from the next 40 years to be spent today. Those who fail to appreciate the fundamentals behind credit growth tend to mistake the illusion for the real thing, and their optimism leads to even more credit expansion. However, this trend cannot last forever, and the wealth created is destroyed via the process of deleveraging once credit tightens up.http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...-says-economist Key points to take away from the article for me was:- "Debt-fuelled growth has let Malaysia plaster over the cracks of a softening economy already showing the signs that heralded the dotcom crash and Asian financial crisis" “Asia’s inconvenient truth, in short, is that the rise in debt has masked deteriorating growth fundamentals" "The troubling question now is: how much would growth have slowed if it wasn’t for the rise in debt?” I guess for the past few years a lot of funds (debts) have been dumped into properties to churn out overall growth... which does not create value (in terms of productivity) and the question is how in the world are they going to reverse this false value creation in properties (bearing in mind the illiquid nature of these assets) in order to create real sustainable growth fundamentals. Not all credit is bad of course. Hedge financing is healthy, whereas speculative and ponzi financing are bad. The problem is we don't know how much is bad, how much is good. I've always taken the view that we cannot tell how healthy mortgage debt is from bankruptcy rates when a market is rising faster than interest rates, as rising prices will increase your asset value faster than your debt even if you don't make a single payment. We'll only be able to tell when interest rates start crawling up. Based on recent news I think it is almost certain that rates will start edging up by the end of the year, and the key question is only: how much? |
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Aug 6 2013, 01:09 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 6 2013, 01:00 PM) The magic of credit growth is that always creates an "illusion" of a sudden explosion in wealth creation, as households magically fast forward income from the next 40 years to be spent today. Those who fail to appreciate the fundamentals behind credit growth tend to mistake the illusion for the real thing, and their optimism leads to even more credit expansion. However, this trend cannot last forever, and the wealth created is destroyed via the process of deleveraging once credit tightens up. Thus its always a good idea to sit down and reflect not on the number of houses/ apartments/ condos you own... but also truly and deeply consider the amount of debt behind all that which needs to be repaid with interest... Not all credit is bad of course. Hedge financing is healthy, whereas speculative and ponzi financing are bad. The problem is we don't know how much is bad, how much is good. I've always taken the view that we cannot tell how healthy mortgage debt is from bankruptcy rates when a market is rising faster than interest rates, as rising prices will increase your asset value faster than your debt even if you don't make a single payment. We'll only be able to tell when interest rates start crawling up. Based on recent news I think it is almost certain that rates will start edging up by the end of the year, and the key question is only: how much? Unless you have plenty of cash and buy with cash... if that's the case then anytime is a good time to buy! lol!!! |
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Aug 6 2013, 01:25 PM
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416 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 12:30 PM) In the meantime, our best shopping malls are packed with people and people are makaning out. Imagine that day, all the resto in a popular mall was fully booked. Nia mah... The data showed that the Eating Out market is actually shrinking across board (breakfast, lunch & dinner) compared to the past 2 years. Just to share. |
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Aug 6 2013, 01:29 PM
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66 posts Joined: May 2013 |
I work in the government property sector. I'd like to know HOW having the access to all the property prices in the country can help me. Can being a property agent make use of all the available data?
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Aug 6 2013, 01:33 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(cockee @ Aug 6 2013, 01:25 PM) Bro, I am in a multinational F&B company. We have access to a lot of food retail information, so I can strongly disagree with your statement about makan out. The data showed that the Eating Out market is actually shrinking across board (breakfast, lunch & dinner) compared to the past 2 years. Just to share. This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Aug 6 2013, 01:39 PM |
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Aug 6 2013, 02:16 PM
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2,155 posts Joined: May 2005 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 12:30 PM) Construction and oil/gas. So much work till dono wat to say. Let me guess...issit coz its puasa month? Fully booked for them to buka puasa?In the meantime, our best shopping malls are packed with people and people are makaning out. Imagine that day, all the resto in a popular mall was fully booked. Nia mah... That day i went to this Absolute Thai in Gardens MV at 630...NOBODY! but fully booked sign is outside... feeling disatisfied....i ask la issit really fully book? They told me yes......i was like....wat? 1 more hour to buka puasa woh......nobody at all also @@ wahh this restaurant really dunno to do business |
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Aug 6 2013, 02:16 PM
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2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 01:00 PM) This Sunday is the official Grand Launch with the Sultan of Johor. According to Iskandar insiders, more than 2,000 units of apartments have been pre-booked. Wow! 2000 units have been pre-booked![]() News from TODAY @ Mediacorp Singapore. https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hpho...856238672_o.jpg source: TODAY |
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Aug 6 2013, 02:18 PM
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416 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 6 2013, 01:33 PM) Some is up, some is down. But overall quite low growth. Besides the softening EO market, the biggest problem is the low barrier of entry. It is highly competitive. Easy to start, hard to sustain. |
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Aug 6 2013, 02:24 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
QUOTE(cockee @ Aug 6 2013, 02:18 PM) Dessert market very wide categorization, bro. It depends on which subsegments you are looking at. Its a delicacy, sweet, chocolate kind of concept... And I agree with your last point, everything is great when its fresh but just loses it's appeal after awhile... well... we'll see how it goes.. thanks for your advice!Some is up, some is down. But overall quite low growth. Besides the softening EO market, the biggest problem is the low barrier of entry. It is highly competitive. Easy to start, hard to sustain. |
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Aug 6 2013, 04:49 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
The overall retail market is growing... but it is true that if you look more closely most retailers are struggling.
Our growth is from the big players for example in F&B you have to see Starbucks, McDonald's, Chatime, TGI Friday's, Chilli's, etc... so as long as the big players are doing well, in totality wise, I would say we are doing fairly well. QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Aug 6 2013, 02:16 PM) Let me guess...issit coz its puasa month? Fully booked for them to buka puasa? Yes all fully booked.... i was at The Curve... even the non-halal ones aso crowded. So ended up in Din Tai Fung which was crowded as well.That day i went to this Absolute Thai in Gardens MV at 630...NOBODY! but fully booked sign is outside... feeling disatisfied....i ask la issit really fully book? They told me yes......i was like....wat? 1 more hour to buka puasa woh......nobody at all also @@ wahh this restaurant really dunno to do business This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 6 2013, 04:54 PM |
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Aug 6 2013, 04:57 PM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
4500 unit already prebook
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Aug 6 2013, 08:23 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
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Aug 6 2013, 08:54 PM
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2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
Wow! More and more good news
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Aug 6 2013, 08:57 PM
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Senior Member
2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
Wow! More and more good news
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Aug 6 2013, 10:11 PM
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2,292 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
QUOTE(cockee @ Aug 6 2013, 01:25 PM) Bro, I am in a multinational F&B company. We have access to a lot of food retail information, so I can strongly disagree with your statement about makan out. Would u have information about eating out at hawker stalls, coffee shops, mamaks, small Chinese restaurants without gov tax?The data showed that the Eating Out market is actually shrinking across board (breakfast, lunch & dinner) compared to the past 2 years. Just to share. |
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Aug 6 2013, 10:34 PM
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1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2013 |
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Aug 6 2013, 11:54 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
i-city soho
taken by HYB ![]() This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 6 2013, 11:55 PM |
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Aug 7 2013, 12:00 AM
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2,856 posts Joined: Jan 2010 |
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Aug 7 2013, 02:48 AM
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117 posts Joined: Feb 2013 |
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Aug 7 2013, 09:01 AM
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416 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 04:49 PM) Our growth is from the big players for example in F&B you have to see Starbucks, McDonald's, Chatime, TGI Friday's, Chilli's, etc... so as long as the big players are doing well, in totality wise, I would say we are doing fairly well. |
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Aug 7 2013, 09:06 AM
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416 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
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Aug 7 2013, 10:37 AM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
heard loan submit on aug onwards will be tighter for approval
bnm have new ruling and the margin approve is stricter for 3rd prop onwards this to curp speculation This post has been edited by bababanana: Aug 7 2013, 11:24 AM |
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Aug 7 2013, 11:27 AM
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982 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(bababanana @ Aug 7 2013, 10:37 AM) heard loan submit on aug onwards will be tighter for approval Yeah I heard that too.bnm have new ruling and the margin approve is stricter for 3rd prop onwards this to curp speculation Guy in Banking told me that BNM has given directive all loan approval must be very stringent. |
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Aug 7 2013, 11:35 AM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
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Aug 7 2013, 11:38 AM
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279 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
heard, speculate, guess ..... that loan is slower?
why just get up your ass, dig out the data and take a god damm look at it? can't help to mock the laziness. sign...... Loan growth |
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Aug 7 2013, 11:52 AM
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982 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 7 2013, 11:38 AM) heard, speculate, guess ..... that loan is slower? Not lazy but just sharing what the Bank Manager told me.why just get up your ass, dig out the data and take a god damm look at it? can't help to mock the laziness. sign...... Loan growth By the way I've bookmarked you blog long time ago. This post has been edited by W.ROOK: Aug 7 2013, 11:52 AM |
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Aug 7 2013, 01:45 PM
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986 posts Joined: May 2012 |
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Aug 7 2013, 02:13 PM
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All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
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Aug 7 2013, 02:59 PM
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560 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
To all muslim forummers - Selamat Hari Raya.
And here's wishing to a stronger economy. |
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Aug 7 2013, 05:01 PM
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756 posts Joined: Dec 2009 |
QUOTE(bababanana @ Aug 7 2013, 10:37 AM) heard loan submit on aug onwards will be tighter for approval bnm have new ruling and the margin approve is stricter for 3rd prop onwards this to curp speculation Damn. How strict they want somemore. Basket. Sigh, so difficult to own 10 properties already nowadays. Dream broken. |
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Aug 7 2013, 10:23 PM
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All Stars
10,777 posts Joined: Sep 2009 |
China Leng Lui Comes To Iskandar - Official Launch Sunday, August 11 2013
![]() Universal Carnival @ Country Garden Danga Bay will be launched by Sultan of Johor this Sunday. ![]() In Phase 1, will have more than 9,000 apartment units. Construction starts simultaneously. *Malaysia's single largest property launch. ![]() MediaCorp stars Jessica Liu and Zoe Tay endorse Country Garden @ Iskandar Malaysia ![]() ![]() BBB mode... ![]() More than 60% units already sold. |
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Aug 7 2013, 11:02 PM
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247 posts Joined: Jun 2010 |
QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Aug 7 2013, 01:45 PM) Signed my Lo today with HSBC, hope it's not what banker told me. DSR has been standardized for all level of income. oh no Given current situation, only those really qualified for loan can buy properties if this thing continues. No need many implementation, when everyone dry and cannot buy again, we shall see the changes, very soon. |
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Aug 7 2013, 11:20 PM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
QUOTE(greenstuff @ Aug 7 2013, 11:02 PM) Signed my Lo today with HSBC, hope it's not what banker told me. DSR has been standardized for all level of income. oh no no worryGiven current situation, only those really qualified for loan can buy properties if this thing continues. No need many implementation, when everyone dry and cannot buy again, we shall see the changes, very soon. when msian all dry then it's time to invite foreigner come buy after all our prop still cheap compare with other region |
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Aug 8 2013, 01:24 AM
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90 posts Joined: Jul 2013 |
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Aug 8 2013, 09:52 AM
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1,614 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
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Aug 8 2013, 11:56 AM
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294 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
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Aug 8 2013, 11:59 AM
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595 posts Joined: Mar 2006 |
QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 6 2013, 04:49 PM) The overall retail market is growing... but it is true that if you look more closely most retailers are struggling. Halal one already been fully booked....sure those non halal who eat out will have no choice but to go for non halal food...I think this is a very common behavior for this puasa month...Now puasa is over...can recheck F&B market again.Our growth is from the big players for example in F&B you have to see Starbucks, McDonald's, Chatime, TGI Friday's, Chilli's, etc... so as long as the big players are doing well, in totality wise, I would say we are doing fairly well. Yes all fully booked.... i was at The Curve... even the non-halal ones aso crowded. So ended up in Din Tai Fung which was crowded as well. |
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Aug 8 2013, 12:26 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(cockee @ Aug 7 2013, 09:06 AM) In general all is down except foodcourt. my observation is that is true.You can get these info from agencies like euromonitor or mindshare. while many proper restuarants do fine on weekends and festive season, they look pretty empty on other days. foodcourt, hawkers, traditional coffeshops usually good biz. it is also easy to see some ambitious restaurant charging a little high only to close down soon after. the sad fact is the wallet is hurting many. just can't splash around as often as before. if newly committed to a home, this "makan nasi lemak aje" isn't a joke anymore. and not nasi lemak at paparich but from roadside!! |
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