Unlike stock mkt where you can track the index by technical chart, property is rising and dropping every moment.
Good mkt - 80% up 20% drop
Bad mkt - 20% up 80% drop

Assume average drop 10%, based on my analysis the component shd be like this :-
Commercial shoplot (- 15%)
Factory (- 20%)
Condo / service apt (- 20%)
Landed (0% to - 7%)
Office lot (- 25%)
Empty land (development) (+ 10% to +15%)

Since landed has the biggest transacted volume, it would give a heavier weight to the index.
In the above scenario, 4-6 yrs to rebound

If landed drop 20% (in general), it's a disaster, highrise wd drop 40%-50% already.


This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jul 29 2013, 12:55 PM

Anybody heard this? Diesel is missing all over Malaysia.
And what type of gasoline do the machinery that works on property? Diesel right?

This is a precursor to increase in diesel price ladies and gentlman.... and I guess property will go down???? I mean I want to hear from people who say that property is going to go down camp. Is it possible for property going down?

IMO this is infaltion at its best. Property is going up because of cost push inflation AND combine with demand pull inflation, be realistic.

Chicken goes up, fish goes up, vegetables go up, sugar go up and only property goes down?

Hmmh another point talking about economy, during the 2008 crisis in the US, interest rates went down to almost 0%. But some of us here are arguing that property price will go down because we cant service the loan due to increase interest rates, therefore more default.Learn from US, Japan etc..but really? Let say the economy is really in a bad shape in Malaysia, are we going to increase intrest rates? But then US didn't do that.

My take is always, Malaysia is different from the rest of the world. But the negative thinking people will say...just wait, Malaysia will crash soon. Dont buy anyhthing yet, learn from US, detroit, japan..bla..bla..bla. Well, they can keep on waiting.

Yes diesel is being speculated to shortage. To b fair, maybe props is not goin up, but rm goin down.

up or down is relative.
if up % less than inflation, consider down.

so, i guess, time to increase interest rate to control inflation

only if the FED does that. Dont think it will be soon. And for a cost push inflation, I doubt it will work. The best thing to control the inflation is to reduce oil price. But of course this government will never do such thing.

1998/1999?

Of course, different economic theory for bolehland.

Sarcastic one lah

i feel that too tho not me but my co also kena....people were either slashed off or slashed pay, no bonus or increment.
Back in 1998...my mom told me ppl who are in the higher earning bracket were the 1st to go....they can hire 2-3 fellas with 1 fella's pay. So yeah.....be happy with your increment now...until they cant take it anymore and there u go, out the door.
That message was always clear in my mind, altho never happen to me before, doesnt mean it wont but i am still lowly paid LOL! so maybe later only my turn la.

This post has been edited by mIssfROGY: Jul 29 2013, 06:44 PM

crude oil rise over 10% past 1 month, at the same time RM drop nearly 8% against USD. Double blade wound to our govt coffer.

dilemma to raise price now as still too near after GE13 and just a week to go b4 Raya.

I speculate petrol company have problem to bring in supply without increase the subsidies quota.

but if u only have so much money left, will u buy house or buy food to survive?

in the US interest rates almost 0%...but ppl are losing jobs on a daily basis in 2008 and cant service loan, so props of coz go down lo.
U think in Msia if interest rates down to 0% and ppl are losing jobs but props still can sell at 1000sf?? yeah...rich ppl still can buy this no doubt

u mistake between fed fund rate and mortgage rate. At this moment, US 30 yrs ARM is about 4.6%. We have even lower 30 yrs rate at 4.2%.

this has been said umpteen times, but seems nobody cares.

and the rebuttal is always - msia is special, msia is diff, more rich people than poor. many a lot richer than u think, like or imagine (but debt keeps going up like mad, why?). even hawkers and teachers earn 10k pm. banks and oil&gas 30k pm. plus those in sg, shanghai, london, billions in bank accounts ready to buy.

so, how can anyone not have moolah to buy anything? u must be lazy or and negative.

feel like giving up?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 06:52 PM

agree.

we are in fact very similar to other bubble countries.

Jim nailed it right!

Then we hav 1998 for us as a benchmark. KLCI went down to just 200++ only but did we hear any property firesales? They were people who lost property due to bankruptcy of course but not because interetst rate increase or interets rate went down.

This is to the fact like iceman said, we hav a different economic theory cant compare wit US. If ever interest rate went close to 0% here, i believe property investor would rejoice. And we still hav huge KWSP to bailout anybody, as what we went through 1998. There will never be the lehman brothers incident here.

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 29 2013, 06:55 PM

forget about low interests rate entirely, it wont happen, never again.

No fire sale as far as I remember in 98, people was so scare and depressed. I bough a car (99) and interests rate was about 10% and max 5 yrs. hahaha, what a pathetic time then, most people were very very depressed.

Don't think Malaysia will be that bad in the coming storm, as the coming storm epicenter is not here, it's up North, China.

think u already know the diff between 1998 and now is additional >rm500billion in debt, private and gomen combined.

world bank, imf, adb have been warning msia there is little room left to play in the event of a crisis with with such debt levels.

well, if u say msia can take it, can take another 500bn, no diff, then there is nothing more to say.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 07:09 PM

Thats why i said. We still hav epf as a safeguard. I was imagining the cyprus incident happening here. And if it is that bad, our epf that is in trillions, can still save us. No doubt are epf saving might slash 50%, but better than when Malaysia really in deep shit. Again for this to happen is very small chance.

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jul 29 2013, 07:16 PM

if it is about epf to save us...

the suspicion is >60% of epf funds already loaned out to bn aligned outfits, i.e. cronies big and small with questionable performance.

if the condo-cow thing is examplary, you can decide how much or what epf can or will do.

one can dispel all this rumurs, but me, i like to err on my side to think there is already enough evidence that epf wun do ziltch except bailing out the greedy in a next crisis.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 29 2013, 07:22 PM