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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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river.sand
post Jun 26 2013, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 01:48 PM)
2 months until the big drop, according to fengshui chart.  laugh.gif
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FS chart says big drop starts from August.

Actual:
June - drop
July - drop
Aug - drop

In August Lilian Too will tell us her prophecy is correct whistling.gif
river.sand
post Jun 26 2013, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 03:13 PM)
Since the previous QE 1 and 2 did make gold up and raise inflation, many thought QE 3 will do the same. Surprisingly, it didn't. Until now, I still can't figure out why. Probably because when QE 3 happens, central banks across the world are much stronger with enough US$ to neutralize the effect?  hmm.gif
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I think the gold prices hike in the last few years was not caused by QE1 and QE2. Rather, investors sought 'safe haven' when economy was in bad shape. Now US economy is much better, so investors are eying riskier investments.

Other factors:
- profit taking after years of bull run
- fear of Cyprus Central Bank selling gold
- herd mentality

My 2 sen smile.gif

This post has been edited by river.sand: Jun 26 2013, 03:24 PM
river.sand
post Jun 26 2013, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Jun 26 2013, 05:33 PM)
Seem like not many IB write research paper on this is it?
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Seems like none in the last 6 months...
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/6432.jsp

Pink Spider please be our analyst for the Sun God tongue.gif
river.sand
post Jun 27 2013, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 08:32 PM)
For Brewers Lovers.  cool.gif
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The analyst is a Malay hmm.gif

river.sand
post Jun 28 2013, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ Jun 28 2013, 10:59 AM)
Salary out  sad.gif
Wish I have RM2mil. Then I can buy dividend stock, earn 5% to 6% dividend. That's RM100k to 120k tax free income. Then I can retire. But I'm still loooooooooooooooong way from my target  sad.gif
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RM120k a year is RM10k a month. If you were a millionaire, you won't be satisfied with RM10k a month of disposable income.

Human's greed is insatiable brows.gif

river.sand
post Jun 28 2013, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 28 2013, 11:21 AM)
When I have RMx,xxx net worth, I'm living on RM15 a day (excluding the Perodua loan installment)
When I have RMxx,xxx net worth, I'm living on RM18 a day (excluding the Toyota + double storey house loan installment)
Now I have RMxxx,xxx net worth, I'm living on Rm22 a day if I did not go out mabuk (excluding the BMW + bungalow loan installment)

sleep.gif
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Corrected brows.gif
river.sand
post Jun 28 2013, 05:08 PM

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Market closed 1773. What was the KLCI on May 31? Compare that to the feng shui chart icon_rolleyes.gif
river.sand
post Jun 28 2013, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(vccy118 @ Jun 28 2013, 05:12 PM)
thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif
But as a newbie memang ouchie kena this time
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Not just get up (quoting Top Gun), but examine your strategy wink.gif
river.sand
post Jun 28 2013, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(Top Gun @ Jun 28 2013, 05:23 PM)
The red bean pao delicious?
Just now after lunch for chicken rice (bird nest rice),
I wanted to to order one but sold out. sad.gif
You are making me hungry. doh.gif
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Hong Kong edition - red bean pao
Japan edition - dorayaki
river.sand
post Jun 29 2013, 05:42 PM

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FCF formula so complicated... I'm rclxub.gif

Pink Spider
Can you please workout the FCF of APOLLO? Show us the step-by-step calculation.

V-Zero
You pick another stock and show us the step-by-step calculation of its FCF.

Guru gark will mark their homework brows.gif
river.sand
post Jun 30 2013, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 11:43 AM)
Ok here's my DCF valuation for Apollo.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
Thanks. But actually I want to know more about FCF. I always use the simplified formula, i.e. net cash from operations minus capex. How did you derive FCF?

I don't find DCFA very useful, as our assumptions for growth rate and discount rate could be off by a long shot. Some time ago I did DCFA for Padini, and got the fair value at ~RM4. But today doh.gif

This post has been edited by river.sand: Jun 30 2013, 03:31 PM
river.sand
post Jul 1 2013, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 30 2013, 11:00 PM)
For those interested to use DCF as a valuation tool....there are restrictions in the model.

1. Growth rate cannot be more the discount rate. This caused high growth company cannot use DCF calc. Also high capex companies cannot be accurately valued.
2. Varying discount and growth rate  can affect the results. Growth rate and termination rate can be very notorious to predict.
3. Since item 2 is hard to get right, usually a margin of safety is used to round off any errors.
That being said, DCF is mostly suitable for aging, company, with more or less predictable earnings without much growth due to the limitations.
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There is one Singaporean guy who says for growth company, do Discounted Earning Analysis. Same method, just replace FCF with earning.
river.sand
post Jul 1 2013, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jul 1 2013, 08:31 AM)
NESTLE                  65.50 to 67
QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jul 1 2013, 10:23 AM)
I am both a long term value investor and position trader, not
a day trader. But I have found that knowing the likely short-term
support and resistances have helped me avoid buying near peaks or
when prices are about to come down a lot or getting stuck in long
sideways trends. Has also helped me to avoid large losses by selling
before potential crashes and to get big gains by not selling too
soon in likely up-trends. Signals are not accurate all the time but
they have helped me make money by keeping losses small and
capturing some big gains. I am able to take some profits and enjoy
them while waiting for my long-term investments to give me dividend
income and potential capital appreciation.
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Buying NESTLE with the aid of TA will save me RM1.50/share at most. But if I am aiming for 30% capital gain, i.e. RM20/share, then this saving is not significant.

BTW, NESTLE has breached the resistance of 67 icon_rolleyes.gif
river.sand
post Jul 2 2013, 08:38 AM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jul 1 2013, 09:38 PM)
"Wow ! Expected RM 20/share gain is a lot. Can you share how did you arrive at
this valuation for Nestle and how much time is needed to reach your target ?

Volume traded is still low.

Why are people not rushing in to grab this now ?

TA is just an additional tool to help me make decisions when to
buy,sell or hold. Only an extra guide, better than simply buying
or selling without it. TA works quite well with high volume counters.

I would not rush in to buy Nestle now. Want to wait to see today's closing
price chart."

The above was posted by me at about 12.36pm today. Please reply and share how
you arrived at RM20/share expected capital gain. Forum members, hope
you can get river.sand to share his AMAZING knowledge.

Nestle has gained RM 1.38 today. I  will not chase the price now because it
has gained so much, so fast. I am really interested to know how river.sand
arrived at potential capital gain of a MASSIVE RM 20/share, which means a
FANTASTIC target price of more than RM 88/share .
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NESTLE is just an example. I haven't done an analysis on it yet. But there are some stocks in my portfolio which have gone up 30%.

PRESBHD - bought at ~RM1.00; it hit all time high of 2.12. (Closed at 1.88 yesterday.)
AEON - bought at RM8.80; it hit all time high of 18.58. (Closed at 14.80 yesterday.)
TAKAFUL - bought at RM4.90; it hit all time high of 7.97. (Closed at 7.45 yesterday.)

river.sand
post Jul 3 2013, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 3 2013, 12:36 PM)
Looks like foreign funds like Aberdeen, Mitsubishi etc were busy disposing stock.

GAB, AEON, ORIENT, UTDPLNT, PANAMY etc

Today I accumulate another 100 shares of Nestle.
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NESTLE is still traded around RM69. Cheap meh hmm.gif
river.sand
post Jul 4 2013, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 4 2013, 10:57 AM)
Why need go so far? We also have "Little Hatyai" right in the middle of Klang Valley nowadays brows.gif
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Little Saigon, Little Beijing got. Where is Little Hatyai?

BTW, can't attach file?

This post has been edited by river.sand: Jul 4 2013, 11:10 AM
river.sand
post Jul 6 2013, 08:04 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jul 5 2013, 11:35 PM)
MBSB can 25 years because they are not banks.

Banks only can 10 years for personal loan.

Meaning MBSB is standing in a very good position and winning all others conventional banks.
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These measures are issued pursuant to section 31(1)(a) of the Central Bank of Malaysia Act 2009 and apply to all financial institutions regulated by Bank Negara Malaysia, credit cooperatives regulated by the Suruhanjaya Koperasi Malaysia, Malaysia Building Society Berhad and AEON Credit Service (M) Berhad. This is to ensure consistency in the financing practices across all the key credit providers.
river.sand
post Jul 8 2013, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 8 2013, 10:12 AM)
Boarding at MAS A380 to London, at least 80% occupancy rate and still wondering how MAS report loss year and year
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I think MAS loses money on domestic routes.

river.sand
post Jul 8 2013, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jul 8 2013, 01:12 PM)
laugh.gif You remind me EPF provide "loan" to MAS last year..............

no pay back date line, so this "loan" is foc? laugh.gif
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No choice, MAS represents Malaysia. If it goes out of business, there is no substitute...

Air Asia - budget airline with HQ in Jakarta; some more the stewardesses are too sexy doh.gif
Malindo - no way, the boss is Indon
Fire Fly - community airline only

Until there is a substitute, MAS can't fail doh.gif
river.sand
post Jul 8 2013, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 8 2013, 03:22 PM)
I don't understand some route like Pg-Sg, MAS doesn't have direct flight at all.

Passenger want to go to Sg, either take Airasia or Silkair.
Silkair has 4-5 flight daily from Pg-Sg, if this is not profitable route, I do not think Silkair has so many flight daily.

Bare in mind, a return flight ticket of Silkair range from Rm500-800. This is only an hour flight journey.
So why Mas do not offer such a route?
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Other than the reasons given by Jason Toh and MilesAndMore, another possible explanation is that SIN is the hub for Silkair, but Penang is not the hub for MAS.

You can fly to Bangkok from Penang on AirAsia, but that's FD, not AK.


QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jul 8 2013, 03:32 PM)
Because most of the Silkair passenger will use Singapore Air to fly elsewhere once reached Changi. I think not many seats are taken purely by those just Spore-Pg. I believe this less than 45 minutes flight might not be profitable, if you do not have the continuous route to elsewhere like US, Japan etc. Good thing about Silkair is you might get the chance to sit next to the air stewardess  drool.gif  drool.gif
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Reminds me of my flight on SIA ages ago. The cabin crew just took up any vacant seats during take-off and landing tongue.gif

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