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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 10:34 AM

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Sell on 31st July and go away. tongue.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 11:24 AM

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^

Not for the patience-less people. tongue.gif
IE those that expect 100% return in few days.
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 01:13 PM)
Momentum indicators are starting to turn from weak bullish to weak bearish.
Market top has been established at 1788. The possibility of downside is higher than upside.
Chances of falling towards 200-day MVA at 1670 is high.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...g-stronger.html

cool2.gif
*
Still considering whether to hold on to the rest of my 47% or go 100% cash. hmm.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 01:39 PM)
For me, always look at fundamental and valuation when having doubts and concerns.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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I only consider stocks with solid fundamentals.
Valuation wise most still got decent upward space.

The thing is, I wanna avoid going into the market when the short-mid term outlook is dim.
Me no rike when mah share stuck at -5% loss after entry. tongue.gif

Even REITs are no longer a safe hedge against equity volatility. rclxub.gif
2 months until the big drop, according to fengshui chart. laugh.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 01:54 PM)
So when the big drop happens in two months time, that fong sway chart is accurate? laugh.gif

for June the fong sway chart says go UP. laugh.gif

Conclusion?

Depend more on fong sway chart. Soon it will be accurate one.  laugh.gif
*
Considering the market sentiment now, no harm to follow the chart. laugh.gif
Small constant profit better than wild swings for me, heart cannot tahan. blush.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:05 PM)
laugh.gif

Strange.

This is like saying it doesn't matter when the Fong Sway chart is wrong.
It only matters when it is correct.

biggrin.gif
*
nonono tongue.gif
Consider KLCI all time closing high of 1780 (forget exact) to now of roughly 1725, we only corrected for a mere 3%, perhaps included in the fengshui chart but negligible drop? tongue.gif

So we will still sail up to 1800 by end of July.
So ride the wave now and sell on 31st July? unsure.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:37 PM)
Dude... check this out. tongue.gif

KLCI closing at month end.
Feb: 1,637.63
March: 1,671.63
Apr: 1,717.65
May: 1,769.22

Check...

Feb closed at 1,637.63. March closed at 1,671.63. KLCI is up 34 pts.
Fong Sway chart says big rise in March. Correct.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


How did Fong Sway chart draw the 34 points?

Big up.

KLCI closed May at 1,769.22. We are now at 1734.67. We are down 34.5 pts on the index for the month.

Question: I understand that 3% can and should be considered a mere correction BUT how are you going to compare this 34 points down with the 34 points up on Feb 2013?
Anyway like I say "This is like saying it doesn't matter when the Fong Sway chart is wrong. It only matters when it is correct."
*
Sifu got a point there. notworthy.gif
But still got 2 market days until end of June right? brows.gif

Later Friday close at 1,769.22+ whistling.gif
Then the fengshui chart must be dayum chun liao thumbup.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:59 PM)
tongue.gif

Still cannot.  laugh.gif

Look at month of April.
End March 1,671.63. April closed at 1,717.65.

Aiyoyo. KLCI up 46 pts for April.
Which is more than March.

How did Pong Sway chart draw April? tongue.gif

whistling.gif
*
Kena condemn cry.gif
Kasi chance sikit lah bang tongue.gif

Let's put it another way, any forecast/prediction will never be 100% dead on accurate, so allows some significant variance. icon_idea.gif Take the average slope of the rise from March till August and draw a normalized line. icon_idea.gif

laugh.gif
Disclaimer: Am just fooling around, not trying to prove that the chart is accurate. shakehead.gif

V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 03:11 PM)
laugh.gif

I still object.......................... *larik*
*
maybe can open table take bets on whether the chart correct or not. tongue.gif
Anyway I think China is capable of handling US QE tapering so the odds are against me. cry.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 03:22 PM)
I object..... to this question.

laugh.gif
Waa... market now hot a bit.... got tipsy ah? tongue.gif
*
Yes ada tips, KLCI heading back to 1770 by Friday. laugh.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 04:07 PM

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Ok lah let the fongsui chart topic rest. laugh.gif
I shall necro it when August comes. brows.gif

Completed analyzing Coastal, me like the balance sheet. brows.gif The retained earnings alone can cover 2 years+ of FY12 total liabilities.

Anyone want to sell to me at RM1.99? tongue.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 04:12 PM)
I hold tight tight for 2 years already. Sell now? Party has just began.  biggrin.gif
*
I used to hold some last year, sold at 2.1 smthn.
Shall make my entry again on the next bloodbath day. brows.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 26 2013, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 26 2013, 06:19 PM)
laugh.gif

I object.

Why you give up on Pong Sway chart so easily? tongue.gif

I tell you la, when the time it comes correct, many will go hoo ha over it.
When it is wrong, nobody saw and say nothing. tongue.gif  whistling.gif

Coastal?
Why Coastal have so much money?
Why Coastal share no oomph past few years?
Why Coastal profits no oomph past few years?
*
Endless objections. sweat.gif

I never take it seriously in the 1st place. tongue.gif
Just find it interesting on how the creator thought of the flow. blink.gif

The beauty of human minds.
Smart ones will take advantage of these.

My POV would be that the nature of the business is more risky and no constant income stream. hmm.gif
So no oomph on the share price.

Funds rich cz need more funds for emergency.

But that could change with their entry into rig business as its considered recurring income?
Didn't study the sector in depth, just some common sense blabbering. thumbup.gif

Prepared to kena condemn again cry.gif

This post has been edited by V-Zero: Jun 26 2013, 11:24 PM
V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 08:26 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 27 2013, 08:17 AM)
Two charts for you.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Yes, the past might no matter.
*
The FY2013 result is year to date right?
But.. I'm only willing to buy at RM1.99 tongue.gif

Seems like need to tankuku.com
V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 27 2013, 08:32 AM)
1.99? laugh.gif

Did you notice that was a chart from 2011 to present?
Did you realise that KLCI had been hitting highs during this period?
*
KLCI 08-13
user posted image

Coastal 08-13
user posted image

Its pretty much in sync with KLCI, and to me RM1.95 - RM1.99 range is a pretty good base / support. unsure.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 08:51 AM

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^ I looked into Gadang and Salcon's annual report yesterday and I stopped not even half-way. blush.gif

Don't really like the financial.
Perhaps am not really into properties/cyclical sector.
V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 27 2013, 08:59 AM)
Good effort but I object. laugh.gif

Cos I won't stretch it that far back. The data, has to be more relevant.
Hehe.. for this point, you have the right to object to my objections.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


You look again at the very first Coastal chart I posted.
What would be an interesting thing to note?

laugh.gif

Those are random charts.
In case you do not know, I am a trader.

Gadang and Salcon, you can actually see some sort of similarities with Coastal.
The reason to buy is the said 'potential'...
Gadang got it's new mega housing project.
Salcon diversifying big time into properties with the son of a property master.
Coastal diversifying into the rig business.
And if you take out the 'potential' there's nothing much to shout about.

So yes, Gadang and Salcon's annual report is not something you want to read. 

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
Pong Sway again vmad.gif vmad.gif

Probably people expecting good things during 2011-2012, but then the gross profit dropped quite a chunk.
That explains the drop from Feb - June 2012.

Yup I won't be looking at it if there's no potential.
I'm more of an investor with passion in trading. tongue.gif

And well.. I read annual reports while working everyday. doh.gif

V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 27 2013, 09:35 AM)
laugh.gif

Ok... no more P & S for now. tongue.gif

Here's another thing.

As you can see in your chart, Coastal shares did extremely well up to 2011.
It was terror geng.
It became an investor darling of a stock.
Here's the thing. If one bought say after 2011 ( because Coastal was an investing hot stock) and held the stock until today, they would find their investment rather fruitless, and as you have now noted, Coastal profits since 2011 have been pretty poor.
*
for now yes, I'll bring it back on August. thumbup.gif

Ah yes my previous holding gave me 5% ROI for 1 year or so. laugh.gif
As of now still no sign of recovery yet, probably the only thing stopping it from rolling over is the strong balance sheet.

With their entry into rig biz, might give some potential into this otherwise boring stock. nod.gif
Anyway I retain my entry price of not more than RM1.99 or else I'd skip. tongue.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 27 2013, 09:51 AM)
laugh.gif

Whet the ....

I object la .....

This means you are saying Pong Sway can be wrong for April, May, June and maybe July but most important is August ah? LOL!

Like I said.... Pong Sway is only terror geng when it is correct.
When it is wrong, nobody see nothing and nobody say nothing.

tongue.gif
*
The saying goes, you can be wrong 100 times, just be right once. icon_idea.gif

You see ar those roadside/pasar pagi/pasar malam/pasar tengah malam/whatever offering forecast services, quite alot uncle auntie go one.
Then if its not accurate they'll like forget about it, if its correct, you also know what happen. tongue.gif

Follow the herd, will you? whistling.gif
V-Zero
post Jun 27 2013, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 27 2013, 10:00 AM)
I object to your objection to other's objecting you to object without objecting your objection.  laugh.gif
rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
*
Ini hantam kasi pengsan. tongue.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 27 2013, 10:01 AM)
laugh.gif

I object... I utterly cannot tahan that song 'I will follow you...... '

tongue.gif

Stock market follow here, follow there... you always be one or two steps behind liao.
How to win in the long run?
*
So you don't like DiGi. whistling.gif
Sialcom/Maxshyt/Yiumobile? laugh.gif

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