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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 26 2013, 03:11 PM

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staind, this is reply to your last post

Bjcorp lines have not yet crossed. Still no good buy signal.
Be careful or you can get stuck in sideways or down move.
Better upside potentials in some oil and gas counters which have
started rebounds from temporary low levels. Not chasing prices now.
Monitoring for good buy signals to collect more.
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 26 2013, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 26 2013, 03:52 PM)
No see fundamentals 1 ah? If see fundamentals, you will not keep topping up and catch falling knife...

Anyway welcome to REAL world of stock investment.  wink.gif
*
Must be very careful when trying to chase prices or catching falling knives without knowing
the resistance and support levels or can lose a lot. Hope you have not lost all your capital
(WB's first and second rules) and can fight again another day.
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 27 2013, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jun 27 2013, 11:46 AM)
slowly gua....
725 keep dancing there... doesnt looks good for me.... i skip first...  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Agree. Better stay away now and wait for buy signal.

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jun 27 2013, 11:54 AM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 27 2013, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(staind @ Jun 26 2013, 07:37 PM)
Yesterday SMA50 and SMA200 kissed. Today is officially crossed. SMA50 = 0.580, SMA200 = 0.579. haha. PE ratio = 60 counter.
Monitoring...

user posted image
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Nothing to be excited about Bjcorp. Crossover not strong.
Not bullish signal. Deadweight like Mas which cannot takeoff
as it cannot break resistance level I mentioned last time.
These 2 stocks not going up unless they show strong buying signals.
Have not bought them. I am more interested in oil and gas stocks
which have rebounded strongly from their temporary bottoms because
they have corrected a lot recently. Have collected some. Trying to
get more but some prices are too high to chase now. I think one
"good"buy left is 7108WA at 75c and below. Not buy/sell recommendations.

Are you a trader or long-term investor ? I am both and make my
trading and investment decisions by using some FA mainly from
reports by analysts and also just by looking at charts of closing
prices at the end of each day to identify the daily resistance and support
levels, which help me try to keep losses small and get some big gains.

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jun 27 2013, 01:16 PM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 27 2013, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 27 2013, 02:06 PM)
Whats with the Apollo party?
Ok I go queue some big lots at 4.01. laugh.gif

From the chart just draw a simple support line and you will see the support had been breached.
Might go down more.  whistling.gif
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Just my 2 cents worth comment. Agree support broken. Better stay away now and
wait for buying / rebound signal.

LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 28 2013, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jun 28 2013, 12:35 PM)
Today LUNCH i also eat salted fried rice + egg only...RM3  hmm.gif  how long need to eat such meal....
sure not good HEALTH
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Anyone looking at MAS? My last post here mentioned Mas not likely to go up
in short-term because it did not break the 32c resistance. I did not monitor it
daily but I just found from yesterday's closing chart that there is a good chance
of short-term rebound if it can break 31c preferably with volume higher than
yesterday's volume since recent low supports at 29.5c appear to be strong. Have
collected some at 31c. This is purely speculative trade to catch possible
rebound with low risk. I do not expect Mas to rebound very strongly like
the oil and gas counters mentioned in my last posts but hope to make some
money. Just sharing info , not buy/sell recommendations.
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 28 2013, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 28 2013, 05:23 PM)
I today loss money yawn.gif

My portfolio of divvy counters always anti-trend laugh.gif
*
What counters are you holding ? I can check the trends and give you some ideas
about their short-term potentials, to reduce or add.

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jun 28 2013, 05:49 PM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 28 2013, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 28 2013, 05:52 PM)
APM
APOLLO
CARLSBG
CSCENIC
HUPSENG
JTINTER
NESTLE

All are in profit territory except for APOLLO laugh.gif
*
I have to wait for my charts to be updated with today's end of day
closing prices. Since today is Friday, I will send you the info before
market opens on Monday. No need to worry about the market during the
weekend, because you cannot do anything when the market is not
open. Enjoy your weekend. I got some trading profits, so I am going
to enjoy mine.

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jun 28 2013, 06:26 PM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 1 2013, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 28 2013, 05:52 PM)
APM
APOLLO
CARLSBG
CSCENIC
HUPSENG
JTINTER
NESTLE

All are in profit territory except for APOLLO laugh.gif
*
APM likely range 4.80 to 5.10

APOLLO 4.0 to 4.40 no rebound signal yet

CARLSBG 15 to 16 trying to rebound

CSCENIC 1.08 to 1.11

HUPSENG 3.90 to 4.10 no rebound signal yet

JTINTER 6.75 to 6.85

NESTLE 65.50 to 67


This is reply to your request.

Above are likely short-term prices ranges. No major price movements
expected and no strong signals to add or reduce positions until
prices break out of the ranges. Need to monitor daily.
Just some comments based on TA, not buy or sell recommendations.


LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 1 2013, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(vccy118 @ Jul 1 2013, 08:33 AM)
Carlsberg range so big yawn.gif

How's your take on Genting? Good time to go in?
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I use closing prices for previous trading day to estimate likely
short-term support and resistance levels. These can change in a
few days. So I monitor daily closing prices.

I mean Carlsberg is not likely to break out up or down in short-term,
based on previous trading day closing prices. I cannot predict how
much prices will move, especially intraday.

Genting also is not likely to move much unless it can go more than 60c
up or down from Friday's close.

I will stay away until I can see clearer buy or sell signals.


LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 1 2013, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 1 2013, 09:51 AM)
An investor is not concerned with that, only day trader would be interested.
*
I am both a long term value investor and position trader, not
a day trader. But I have found that knowing the likely short-term
support and resistances have helped me avoid buying near peaks or
when prices are about to come down a lot or getting stuck in long
sideways trends. Has also helped me to avoid large losses by selling
before potential crashes and to get big gains by not selling too
soon in likely up-trends. Signals are not accurate all the time but
they have helped me make money by keeping losses small and
capturing some big gains. I am able to take some profits and enjoy
them while waiting for my long-term investments to give me dividend
income and potential capital appreciation.
LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 1 2013, 12:36 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jul 1 2013, 12:00 PM)
Buying NESTLE with the aid of TA will save me RM1.50/share at most. But if I am aiming for 30% capital gain, i.e. RM20/share, then this saving is not significant.

BTW, NESTLE has breached the resistance of 67  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Wow ! Expected RM 20/share gain is a lot. Can you share how did you arrive at
this valuation for Nestle and how much time is needed to reach your target ?

Volume traded is still low.

Why are people not rushing in to grab this now ?

TA is just an additional tool to help me make decisions when to
buy,sell or hold. Only an extra guide, better than simply buying
or selling without it. TA works quite well with high volume counters.

I would not rush in to buy Nestle now. Want to wait to see today's closing
price chart.

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jul 1 2013, 01:01 PM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 1 2013, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jul 1 2013, 12:00 PM)
Buying NESTLE with the aid of TA will save me RM1.50/share at most. But if I am aiming for 30% capital gain, i.e. RM20/share, then this saving is not significant.

BTW, NESTLE has breached the resistance of 67  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
"Wow ! Expected RM 20/share gain is a lot. Can you share how did you arrive at
this valuation for Nestle and how much time is needed to reach your target ?

Volume traded is still low.

Why are people not rushing in to grab this now ?

TA is just an additional tool to help me make decisions when to
buy,sell or hold. Only an extra guide, better than simply buying
or selling without it. TA works quite well with high volume counters.

I would not rush in to buy Nestle now. Want to wait to see today's closing
price chart."

The above was posted by me at about 12.36pm today. Please reply and share how
you arrived at RM20/share expected capital gain. Forum members, hope
you can get river.sand to share his AMAZING knowledge.

Nestle has gained RM 1.38 today. I will not chase the price now because it
has gained so much, so fast. I am really interested to know how river.sand
arrived at potential capital gain of a MASSIVE RM 20/share, which means a
FANTASTIC target price of more than RM 88/share .

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jul 1 2013, 10:38 PM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 2 2013, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jul 2 2013, 08:38 AM)
NESTLE is just an example. I haven't done an analysis on it yet. But there are some stocks in my portfolio which have gone up 30%.

PRESBHD - bought at ~RM1.00; it hit all time high of 2.12. (Closed at 1.88 yesterday.)
AEON - bought at RM8.80; it hit all time high of 18.58. (Closed at 14.80 yesterday.)
TAKAFUL - bought at RM4.90; it hit all time high of 7.97. (Closed at 7.45 yesterday.)
*
Thanks for replying.

You mean your Rm20/share potential capital gain for Nestle was not based
on your analysis but just "plucked from the air" ?? and Nestle went up
like a rocket yesterday ?

Any great tips for today ?

LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 2 2013, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(dampshit @ Jul 2 2013, 09:50 AM)
Any idea on Glomac?
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I like Glomac based on both FA and TA. Good fundamentals. Technicals also
show it started rebound from oversold . Have bought some at 1.17. Waiting to
collect more on weakness but prices are not coming down now.

LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 2 2013, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jul 2 2013, 04:07 PM)
hmm.gif so bore.............market and forum also no volume
*
Market is not boring. Some oil and gas counters are moving up again.
Have taken profit on some last week. Today bought some 7108wa at 0.0795
because still see value and potential upside.

LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 2 2013, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jul 2 2013, 04:37 PM)
hmm.gif short term player like you always not in bore.................

but LYN mostly are FA style
*
I am both long-term investor and short-term position trader.
I trade for short-term profits while waiting for my other stocks
to give me dividend income and long-term capital appreciation.
LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 4 2013, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 4 2013, 06:24 PM)
I think Carlsberg had slightly broken below the immediate support today. If the support at this level stays strong in 7 days or so, perhaps it's the short term support for it. However, if it continues to move downwards (even slightly downwards) in next 5-10 days, further downside may happened.
13.20-13.50 may see stronger support on both TA and fundamental concern. By then, RSI may hit around 20 (vs current 38.5) which may see more bottom hunting buyers. Just my view.  biggrin.gif
*
I have posted on Monday Carlsberg's likely short-term
support was RM15. I have been everyday monitoring the
end of day closing prices charts Support has clearly
been broken. Now dangerous to try to catch falling
knives.I cannot predict how low the price will go.
I expect a rebound soon but I won't buy until i can
see that prices have started to rebound

LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 11 2013, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 11 2013, 09:14 AM)
The main chart.

user posted image

Padini was once a hot favourite. Backed by a strong growth story, you could see the extreme strong movement in the chart till end Aug 2012.
The earnings reported by Padini end Aug was terrible. Earnings declined like hell.
Was this a signal that perhaps the end of the growth story?
Would stores like Uniqlo eat into their future earnings.

With such a bad earnings, Padini corrected strongly.

Currently..

user posted image

As you can see that the end Aug/Sep correction had ended and the stock was trying to find its feet again (mixed feeling about this as the earnings are rather week compared the previous year).
It had a superb run in May until taper June send the stock crumbling down once again.
Despite the heavy June correction, TA would be happy to point out that the stock appears to have found a higher low of 1.84 and that higher bottoms can be seen since end Dec.
Could 1.84 be considered as a new found bottom?
If that is the case would you want to put a wager on this stock?
*
Agree 1.84 is likely short-term support. Padini tried to rebound many times after correcting
from the recent run up but could not close above 1.94 likely short-term resistance on the last
2 days even with higher than normal volume yesterday. It is expected to trade within the
10c range between the resistance and support levels until the price can close above or below
them for possible break outs . Need to monitor the daily closing prices to detect any shifts in
the daily likely resistance and support levels.

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jul 11 2013, 11:03 AM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jul 12 2013, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 11 2013, 03:26 PM)
catcha nice run. can go back 70 sen kah?  drool.gif
*
CATCHA chart looks good. It has broken resistance, now retracing a bit .
I will consider buying on weakness above support of 53.5c if volume
increases just for short-term trade. Anyone knows if fundamentals are
good for this stock ? Any target price in the news?

This post has been edited by LOWYAT3AB: Jul 12 2013, 11:00 AM

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