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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jun 28 2013, 11:58 AM)
Be kiam siap to yourself is healthy, kiam siap to others might not be healthy.

U will not know when u need their help, i believe most of us went through some downfall in life
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well said nod.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jun 28 2013, 11:57 AM)
how much million he have???? How he obtain when he was young ???
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Gark has the full analysis, his fanci.......


SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jun 28 2013, 12:01 PM)
he where got kian siap- TRAVEL TO HONG KONG HOLIDAY  tongue.gif

http://travelphotosvideos.blogspot.sg/
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Now U are good in Auditing thumbup.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 12:11 PM

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Time to sober up

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...o-sober-up.html
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jun 28 2013, 12:30 PM)
OK..OK...before that he kiamsiap..NOW NO kiamsiap anymore....  biggrin.gif
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Maybe he eat salted fish for one year, then goes for traveling hmm.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 28 2013, 12:34 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jun 28 2013, 12:35 PM)
Today LUNCH i also eat salted fried rice + egg only...RM3  hmm.gif  how long need to eat such meal....
sure not good HEALTH
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Needs more GAB or tongkat ali to perform hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 12:44 PM

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Actually saving is one thing, investing skill is another.

2 diff things ......
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jun 28 2013, 02:20 PM)
So I buy a stock at RM 1.00

After 1 year, I sell RM 0.80

Then I use the money buy back at RM 0.70, i earn 10 cents from the fall.. Hmm...
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Someone said the same about the INK thing.

Do not wash your hands , then it is not erasable .
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jun 28 2013, 02:25 PM)
But wad about digging nose?
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Sure one week after Erection, then u are free to do that.

Do not cross the line for 1 week....
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jun 28 2013, 02:23 PM)
tongue.gif still loss what, just 自我感觉良好
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CI is very bullish , can hit 2000 pts soon laugh.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(Top Gun @ Jun 28 2013, 04:42 PM)
By chicken, he means "bird" nest.
By fish, he means abalone (鲍鱼).
Where is my other favorite - shark fins?

Since when my favorite foods become so cheap? tongue.gif
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Vegetarian abalone n shark fins still cheap hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 28 2013, 04:46 PM)
Tak payah makan lagi cheap.... laugh.gif
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Indonesia provides free lands to rear sharks hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 04:55 PM

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deleted

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 28 2013, 04:59 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jun 28 2013, 05:03 PM)
tongue.gif high possible beer tax increase on next Budget...........
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nod.gif many years lor no increase........

Certainly a good way to lecture people for not supporting Bee N......

The excise duty on beer and malt liquor has not been raised since September 2005, when it was raised by a steep 23.3% to RM7.40 per litre.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 28 2013, 05:08 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 28 2013, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 28 2013, 05:03 PM)
Ok lah.. cheer up.. 4 digit for tuition fee cheap lah.

AT least never kena 5 or 6 digit loss yet... icon_idea.gif

Remember no DRC & no VT...
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One is Dracula Chong and the other is Vampire Tan hmm.gif

Related.... brows.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 28 2013, 05:14 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 29 2013, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 29 2013, 11:30 AM)
Yes only count PPE.  tongue.gif

Or plainly put it.. the amount of re-investment required to maintain and/or grow the ability for the company to sustain the business.
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Gark is FCF Master now notworthy.gif

Some more, he can modify the formulas shakehead.gif

Dracula and Vampires better don;t play play with him.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 29 2013, 11:42 AM
SKY 1809
post Jun 29 2013, 11:53 AM

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But there are still some set backs to Cash " flow " kinda thing.

All the profits are not actually in" cash forms" , though termed as cash " FLOW " , like Sales .....just " Cash Equivalent at best "

Sales ( aka debtors ) could be in credit terms and see little chances to collect back in time , LCL is example.

the other thing, stocks could be another important " cash equivalent item " that could be easily manipulated .

Bonds could be junk types, but also cash equivalent........

Some forms of cross checking by using working capital ratio might be good , such as debtors days . creditors days etc..in layman terms ..

I mean things cannot be taken at Face Values without further checking .

It also depends on how well u can trust the management and the external auditors. ( Red chip account etc )

MY 1sen view only.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 29 2013, 12:18 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 29 2013, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 29 2013, 12:01 PM)
I get your previous sentence wrong then.  sweat.gif

I thought you mean purchase of PPE is not capex.  laugh.gif
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No point to declare co policy of paying Dividends out of 70% profit .........

FCF might show this company management is not telling the truth... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 29 2013, 12:16 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 30 2013, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 11:43 AM)
Ok here's my DCF valuation for Apollo.

user posted image

I consider data from past 6 years. (07-12).

The average free cash flow for 6 years are $28,628.
I forecast 5 years of 5% growth ahead before getting into perpetuity rate of 2.5%.
Discount rate I vary according to the company's market cap size.

Then you discount them to present value using: (Future Value / (1 + Discount Rate) ^ Years Ahead)
Adding them up you have the enterprise value.

Take away the total debt then divide by the share outstanding, you will have the share fair price according to your valuation.  nod.gif

So my case, Apollo is worth RM3.93.  tongue.gif
[ADDED]
For reference, here's dividend discount model valuation aka gordon growth model.

Formula: (Dividend per Share) / (Discount Rate - Dividend Growth Rate)
0.2 / (11% - 5.65%) = RM3.74
So now.
Sell Apollo.  whistling.gif
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How to get Net Debts of 314M , or the FCF is only 28K , and debt is 314K hmm.gif

Mind to share a bit more . icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 30 2013, 03:14 PM
SKY 1809
post Jun 30 2013, 04:04 PM

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Quite simple to follow, mah hmm.gif


Free Cash Flow - FCF


Definition of 'Free Cash Flow - FCF '

A measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it's tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt. FCF is calculated as:

EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital - Capital Expenditure

It can also be calculated by taking operating cash flow and subtracting capital expenditures.
Investopedia Says

Investopedia explains 'Free Cash Flow - FCF '
Some believe that Wall Street focuses myopically on earnings while ignoring the "real" cash that a firm generates. Earnings can often be clouded by accounting gimmicks, but it's tougher to fake cash flow. For this reason, some investors believe that FCF gives a much clearer view of the ability to generate cash (and thus profits).

It is important to note that negative free cash flow is not bad in itself. If free cash flow is negative, it could be a sign that a company is making large investments. If these investments earn a high return, the strategy has the potential to pay off in the long run.

FCF is a better indicator than the P/E Ratio and here's why - Read Free Cash Flow Yield: The Best Fundamental Indicator and FCF: Free, But Not Always Easy

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