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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 28 2013, 11:30 AM)
Corrected  brows.gif
*
Low 6-digits net worth can drive BMW and stay banggalou??? doh.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Jun 28 2013, 11:31 AM
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 04:59 PM

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Carlsberg ar Carlsberg, when u wanna go below RM15 cry.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 28 2013, 05:01 PM)
Can... after Malaysian Government naik excise tax 500%... sure below RM 15 ....
*
means the trigger will be after Budget hmm.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 05:16 PM

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Then better keep in trust account earn kecik meow interest dulu, wait Budget bomb hmm.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(MarketingDude @ Jun 28 2013, 05:21 PM)
Haiz, today up so much, i worry about monday...
*
I today loss money yawn.gif

My portfolio of divvy counters always anti-trend laugh.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 28 2013, 05:27 PM)
It's Friday.. and after 5.. what are you still doing in office?  laugh.gif
*
9-6 la bos

My tummy is doing the counting down yawn.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jun 28 2013, 05:49 PM)
What counters are you holding ? I can check the trends and give you some ideas
about their short-term potentials, to reduce or add.
*
APM
APOLLO
CARLSBG
CSCENIC
HUPSENG
JTINTER
NESTLE

All are in profit territory except for APOLLO laugh.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 28 2013, 10:12 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 28 2013, 09:06 PM)
^ k lah let it rest let it rest laugh.gif

Sifu-sifu sekalian, for free cash flow ar,
do you take cash flows or net cash flows from operations minue the capex?
*
For me, I'd take net cash BUT add back/deduct the effect of changes in working capital, then minus the capex.

Rationale:
- changes in working capital can greatly distort the cash flow from ops.
- when u do biz, u NEED to pay tax and if the biz is geared, interest expense is unavoidable. This is consistent with the accounting principle of "matching", u incur A to gain B, the profitability of B needs to be assessed with A being taken into consideration.
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 29 2013, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 29 2013, 09:40 AM)
Ah alright.
Just take the operating profit minus the tax and interest will produce a more uniform FCF.  nod.gif

Slowly converting to a yield based investor.  blush.gif
*
But beware, some companies put interest paid under op cash flow, some put under financing cash flow. Maybe, for the sake of fair comparison, just take cash generated from operations hmm.gif

Cash flow statement is quite flexible, there's no 1 "correct" standard
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 29 2013, 10:00 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 29 2013, 09:53 AM)
Remember to plus back dividend and interest recieved...

Capex is excluding purchase of investment property or AFS instruments

If FCF is higher than reported earnings.. you might have a gem there.  laugh.gif
*
Kalau Earnings>FCF? Sell asap? sad.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 29 2013, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 29 2013, 10:04 AM)
No... not necessary... do the DCF and add discount to the DCF value. You will see more clearly...
*
WTF

I slept in class when lecturer taught DCF, never got that into my brain laugh.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 29 2013, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 29 2013, 05:42 PM)
FCF formula so complicated... I'm  rclxub.gif

Pink Spider
Can you please workout the FCF of APOLLO? Show us the step-by-step calculation.

V-Zero
You pick another stock and show us the step-by-step calculation of its FCF.

Guru gark will mark their homework  brows.gif
*
Need so anal meh sweat.gif

Basically what I usually do is, I just take

Net cash from operations (i.e. after deduct taxes paid, interest paid etc) / Earnings x 100%

Some examples:
APM 4 years average: 120%
DIGI 4 years average: 180% (u guys should be familiar with this, this is the reason why DIGI exploring the biz trust model to distribute more cash as dividends back to shareholders, it's cash generative but dividend payout restricted by its distributable reserves)
JERASIA 4 years average: -360% laugh.gif (apparel retail and manufacturing, working capital needs eating up its cash)

I find that the FCF model though better, the lack of knowledge on the respective industries will impair your judgement in which figure to include and which not.

FCF = net cash from ops LESS capex essential to maintain ops

But which is essential and which not? Without in-depth knowledge, hard to make this judgement. Might as well just take the simpler way out, just look at net cash from ops as a % of earnings. wink.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 30 2013, 12:33 PM

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V-Zero Y U cry.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 30 2013, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jun 30 2013, 02:38 PM)
The more I see those information the more I'm  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
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Me too doh.gif

All I care about are dividend yield, the stability of dividends, growth of dividends paid from year to year, and growth of earnings to support the dividend growth.

The longer u hold a divvy stock, the less you would care about valuations. E.g. 5% divvy yield on cost, if u hold 10 years that's 50% of ROI based on dividends alone. Don't tell me that stock would fall 50% over 10 years rclxub.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jul 1 2013, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jul 1 2013, 08:31 AM)
APM        likely range  4.80 to 5.10

APOLLO                    4.0 to 4.40 no rebound signal yet

CARLSBG                    15 to 16 trying to rebound

CSCENIC                  1.08 to 1.11

HUPSENG                  3.90 to 4.10 no rebound signal yet

JTINTER                  6.75 to 6.85

NESTLE                  65.50 to 67
This is reply to your request.

Above are likely short-term prices ranges. No major price movements
expected and no strong signals to add or reduce positions until
prices break out of the ranges. Need to monitor daily.
Just some comments based on TA, not buy or sell recommendations.
*
No action to portfolio needed then, thanks biggrin.gif

I'm looking to accumulate APM if it drops below last week's low of 4.80 hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Jul 1 2013, 09:24 AM
SUSPink Spider
post Jul 1 2013, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2013, 08:16 AM)
About Apollo's products... I have never tasted one of its products before.  tongue.gif
*
u got no childhood hmm.gif

u did not go to public school hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Jul 1 2013, 09:34 AM
SUSPink Spider
post Jul 1 2013, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jul 1 2013, 09:37 AM)
International school ban apollo product?
*
So cheapalak punya food, internazionale skool kids where will eat tongue.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jul 1 2013, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jul 1 2013, 09:44 AM)
I use closing prices for previous trading day to estimate likely
short-term support and resistance levels. These can change in a
few days. So I monitor daily closing prices.

I mean Carlsberg is not likely to break out up or down in short-term,
based on previous trading day closing prices. I cannot predict how
much prices will move, especially intraday.


Genting also is not likely to move much unless it can go more than 60c
up or down from Friday's close.

I will stay away until I can see clearer buy or sell signals.
*
An investor is not concerned with that, only day trader would be interested.

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Jul 1 2013, 09:52 AM
SUSPink Spider
post Jul 1 2013, 04:41 PM

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Nestle suddenly wake up hmm.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jul 1 2013, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 1 2013, 04:43 PM)
M'isa Telco outlook by RHB
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All negative rclxms.gif

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