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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V132, Everyone Huat!

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SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Madbull @ Jun 18 2013, 10:08 AM)
I am working in MNC and we are looking for office space in Klang Valley and is not easy..all the good location are fully occupied..oversupply of office?? i guess is only the old and not so strategic location is empty..
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Sure Boh, hmm.gif

If u look for very Prime locations like KLCC etc, of course u do not expect Petronas to move out in your favour .

A bit south along Jalan Besi , big vacant offices called South Gate Plaza ?
Madbull
post Jun 18 2013, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 10:20 AM)
Sure Boh, hmm.gif

If u look for very Prime locations like KLCC etc, of course u do not expect Petronas to move out in your favour .

A bit south  along Jalan Besi , big vacant offices called South Gate Plaza ?
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I dont think is a good location..traffic jam and no public transport..
delon85
post Jun 18 2013, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(vccy118 @ Jun 18 2013, 10:06 AM)
For a boring day like this  yawn.gif  yawn.gif , 0.2% is enough to get me excited at least...
Plus for Malaysia, we won't get to see more than 1% change on KLCI most of the time  yawn.gif  yawn.gif
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today is punting day before FOMC meeting, buy in if you think QE3 will taper off end of year, sell if u think QE3 tapering coming in another 1-2 months biggrin.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Madbull @ Jun 18 2013, 10:36 AM)
I dont think is a good location..traffic jam and no public transport..
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Really susah if u want to get 1st Class and no traffic jam offices in KL biggrin.gif




cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 18 2013, 07:38 AM)
Interesting writing from Alex. Interest rate up, properties price drop.
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2013/06/more...erest-rate.html

If next year or so, interest rate will start moving up, then why properties sector is top picks by ALL IBs?

I still remember 2 to 3 years ago, many IBs put properties stocks as top picks and put high TPs (still much lower than current TPs though). And then after just 1 year, they all downgrade it and cut TPs by 30-40%.
Just wondering, 2 years later, or maybe as soon as next year if we really see interest rate up by 0.5%. Maybe these IBs all will get panic and fast fast cut TPs by 30-40% saying properties price may have peaked. Before "real workers" filling up Iskandar or Big KL or whatever gorgeous names, many of the bought houses will still be empty, that will help to create the panic selldown and overhang of house price.
Today, we already seeing oversupply of office space and retail malls. Where are all the "new people" coming into Malaysia to fill them up? Or should ask, when?
hmm.gif
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Interest rate up?
I do not think so, with weak IPI, shrinking export, lower GDP number recently, doesn't suggest BNM will raise OPR.

Even bank FD rate doesn't suggest interest rate is on the way up, as if the interest rate is trending upwards, banks generally willing to offer good rate, aka long term FD tenure is significant higher than short term one, as locking up long term FD can earn bank more profit if the rate is on the way up.

SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 18 2013, 10:42 AM)
Interest rate up?
I do not think so, with weak IPI, shrinking export, lower GDP number recently, doesn't suggest BNM will raise OPR.

Even bank FD rate doesn't suggest interest rate is on the way up, as if the interest rate is trending upwards, banks generally willing to offer good rate, aka long term FD tenure is significant higher than short term one, as locking up long term FD can earn bank more profit if the rate is on the way up.
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Generally new auctions of Bonds in Asia or US treasury received not very favorable response .

If Bonds yield goes up and up , then Banks to follow in one way or another.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 10:52 AM)
Generally new auctions of Bonds in Asia or US treasury received not very favorable response .

If Bonds yield goes  up and up  , then Banks to follow in one way or another.
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Bonds yield up or not won't affect the OPR and BLR.

Bank FD is following OPR by BNM, not bond yield.

Bond yield up means corporate that want to do financing one, may cost more or may need to pay more to attract bond buyer.

As bond yield is ridiculous low, some corporate bond is/was yielding 4%, while FD can get 3.x%.

One subject to default risk, while one is not. How can one subjected to defaulting risk just have less than 1% extra?


This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2013, 11:09 AM
SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 18 2013, 11:05 AM)
Bonds yield up or not won't affect the OPR and BLR.

Bank FD is following OPR by BNM, not bond yield.

Bond yield up means corporate that want to do financing one, may cost more or may need to pay more to attract bond buyer.

As bond yield is ridiculous low, some corporate bond is/was yielding 4%, while FD can get 3.x%.

One subject to default risk, while one is not. How can one subjected to defaulting risk just have less than 1% extra?
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Bonds do affect rates like the case in China & US :-

Concerns about a liquidity crunch in China are growing after an unsuccessful bond auction last week and a spike in interbank lending rates.

in US , "They've been continuing to buy assets in the last month. We've seen rates since the beginning of May have jumped substantially," he said. "Mortgage rates are up 115ish basis points. The 10-year note yield is up 55 basis points, and that's while the Fed is buying."

Just that Malaysia is quite unique in some ways where large groups of people do not move their money around and FD grows from 300B to 500B inspite of better yields elsewhere like in Sukuk Bonds.

BTW, rates change in US would impact the whole world, and Malaysia is no exception.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 18 2013, 11:35 AM
SUSStupidGuyPlayComp
post Jun 18 2013, 11:48 AM

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I believe BNM will remain interest in same for this year. Due to Malaysia GDP not as good as last year, market also did not see high inflation, not necessary to raise
SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jun 18 2013, 11:48 AM)
I believe BNM will remain interest in same for this year. Due to Malaysia GDP not as good as last year, market also did not see high inflation,  not necessary to raise
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I do not know why Malaysia is so unique and powerful that can overrule US changes in rates.

But according to the bankers I know of , told me Malaysia has impacted more or less in the long run......



SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 11:58 AM

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IT shows Malaysia is not a Standalone like what I say :-

Najib forms new fiscal policy panel to cut GDP deficit by 3% by 2015

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...y-2015&Itemid=2

The outflows of money is there.....

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 18 2013, 11:59 AM
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 11:53 AM)
I do not know why Malaysia is so unique and powerful  that can overrule US changes in rates.

But according to  the bankers I  know of , told me Malaysia has impacted more or less in the long run......
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Interest rate or overnight rate (OPR) is set by BNM and controlled by respective central bank.

How bond pricing or yield generally (if do not move too drastically) generally won't affect the overnight rate, unless central bank is powerless to control the movement.

Aka if your interest rate too high, massive hot money flow in causing currency shooting drastically
or
interest rate too low vs bond pricing, massive outflow causing exchange rate plummeting like 97.

In this situation only the market force can force central bank to act.

But since 97, capital market is not as open and free like last time, aka no limit, no control on how money being TT out/in etc,
, so a good capital control measurement can reduce this kind of issue.

Since 2008 crisis, we can see a free and open movement of capital can cause more harm than good.

That's why Malaysia can have 3% while US interest remain at zero, and there is no massive hot money pouring in, causing RM to shoot up to the roof.

Yes, impact will be there, but if local liquidity is enough, and domestic economy condition is intact, it shouldn't cause any major issue.

That's why I do not see how BNM can opt to hike in interest rate, particularly GDP number is becoming less and less, last month export is shrinking, IPI is weak. And many businesses out there already complain sluggish sales.

Domestic interest rate is to cater domestic economy activities, this is the primary function of the interest rate.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2013, 12:54 PM
cherroy
post Jun 18 2013, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 18 2013, 11:58 AM)
IT shows Malaysia is not a Standalone like what I say :-

Najib forms new fiscal policy panel to cut GDP deficit by 3% by 2015

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...y-2015&Itemid=2

The outflows of money is there.....
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Fiscal policy to cut deficit is about self-sustain of gov financing.

Gov cannot rely forever on deficit to run upon, aka keep on borrowing to fund the paycheck (be it from EPF or where).

Nothing to do with outflow

Whether the outflow is serious or not, we can see from the currency account surplus/deficit, as well as rising/shrinking in foreign currency reserves.
foofoosasa
post Jun 18 2013, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 18 2013, 07:38 AM)
Interesting writing from Alex. Interest rate up, properties price drop.
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2013/06/more...erest-rate.html

If next year or so, interest rate will start moving up, then why properties sector is top picks by ALL IBs?

I still remember 2 to 3 years ago, many IBs put properties stocks as top picks and put high TPs (still much lower than current TPs though). And then after just 1 year, they all downgrade it and cut TPs by 30-40%.
Just wondering, 2 years later, or maybe as soon as next year if we really see interest rate up by 0.5%. Maybe these IBs all will get panic and fast fast cut TPs by 30-40% saying properties price may have peaked. Before "real workers" filling up Iskandar or Big KL or whatever gorgeous names, many of the bought houses will still be empty, that will help to create the panic selldown and overhang of house price.
Today, we already seeing oversupply of office space and retail malls. Where are all the "new people" coming into Malaysia to fill them up? Or should ask, when?
hmm.gif
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The "new people" coming from East malaysian. I can definitely sure about it without even looking at any statistic data,
KVReninem
post Jun 18 2013, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 18 2013, 03:58 PM)
The "new people" coming from East malaysian. I can definitely sure about it without even looking at any statistic data,
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what if they dont? wink.gif
KVReninem
post Jun 18 2013, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 18 2013, 01:42 PM)
Interest rate up?
I do not think so, with weak IPI, shrinking export, lower GDP number recently, doesn't suggest BNM will raise OPR.

Even bank FD rate doesn't suggest interest rate is on the way up, as if the interest rate is trending upwards, banks generally willing to offer good rate, aka long term FD tenure is significant higher than short term one, as locking up long term FD can earn bank more profit if the rate is on the way up.
*
BUT property prices is up and up and up..

wink.gif should it be a mouse trap there in property? wink.gif
foofoosasa
post Jun 18 2013, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Jun 18 2013, 01:09 PM)
what if they dont? wink.gif
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???? I don't get what you mean. Sorry for my stupidity.
KVReninem
post Jun 18 2013, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 18 2013, 04:21 PM)
???? I don't get what you mean. Sorry for my stupidity.
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nothing stupid -___-

i mean, since najib focus now is towards east msia and the trend is reversing. wink.gif the "new" might not be east malaysia but rather "outside" west malaysia. just POV.
ngaisteve1
post Jun 18 2013, 01:45 PM

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Federal Reserve issue cleared? Can buy more already?
SKY 1809
post Jun 18 2013, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Jun 18 2013, 01:13 PM)
BUT property prices is up and up and up..

wink.gif should it be a mouse trap there in property? wink.gif
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Central Banks’ Failure to Communicate Boosts Bond Yields laugh.gif

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/c...ond-yields.html

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