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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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agentdiary
post Jul 6 2013, 05:28 PM

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lol..... u seem know too little about banking and finance. keep investing, the market now need more people like you.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 6 2013, 04:03 PM)
Property is unlike commodity and stock that has exchange, is less liquidity and take sometime for transacted price to reflect market mood.

Flippers who bought DIBS units need not worry about loan repayment until their units are completed, which could be 1 to 3 years time.

Developers who have genuinely sold more than their break even could afford to sit and wait.

In order for banks to meet their loan growth target, together with developers, they will conjure some creative packaging for borrowers.

Serious impact will come when (not if) BNM need to raise BLR and tightening credit. Hence, don't expect any drastic price movement or substantial transaction volume in the near future .
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agentdiary
post Jul 6 2013, 11:12 PM

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debts growth is 3 or 4 times higher than interests rate for more than 3 years. Predict? No such need.


QUOTE(brianccg @ Jul 6 2013, 10:49 PM)
Nobody can predict. But I think the property market now is not healthy. Chinese investor seems divert their focus from south east Asia to Europe/US market. Even nusajaya can no loner attract them.
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agentdiary
post Jul 6 2013, 11:27 PM

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far too many people though the US real estate imploded in 2008. No. Not at all.

As early as late 2005 and beginning from 2006:
1. Peak price has reached in all states (housing starts also peaked)
2. Home builder stocks and index drop over 20% and continue through 2008
3. Building materials and downstream industry i.e. furniture, appliance.... business getting bad
4. Home price maintained for most market until 2008. Some area dropped but not significant.
5. Interest rate bottom out
6. Bank start to tighten
7. even the NPL still looked healthy though default has built up slowly
8. Inventory start building up till peak in 2008

(feel free to cross check the data above, I have done it already but lazy to site the source here)

What I'm trying to say is market won't imploded all of sudden but is a lengthy process. Based of what happened, US took more than 24 months to 'matured'. So did Ireland, Spain, Greek. All without an exception, none has real estate burst but in fact, a credit shrinkage that caused the house card of leverage investment like real estate, stock and etc....... collapsed

QUOTE(CloudAtla$ @ Jul 6 2013, 10:26 PM)
Any idea whn property market will crash?
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agentdiary
post Jul 6 2013, 11:41 PM

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1. When rate is 10%, you able to sell/built 100 car a month.
2. When rate drop to 5%, interests payment cut by half, you able to built/sell 200 cars as more people can afford.
3. Good time, profits good.
4. Rate drop further to 4%. Party even more rigorously. Bonus increase. Spending increase. Shopping every weekend.
5. Demand is so good and you increase capacity to 400.
6. Same time, more competitors comes to the party. Total capacity also increased substantially.
7. Suddenly authority intervene by limiting loan as debts mounting.
8. Buyer shrink as loan difficult to get.
9. Inventory built up and builder become distress seller.

POINT (5) is where the risk for the builder come. Capex increase and only able to meet by increase buyer (increase credit growth larger than previously). Get it? No? cry.gif cry.gif



QUOTE(Martinis @ Jul 6 2013, 11:11 PM)
Why do you say a slower growth will kill the market? Dun understand. Please elaborate.
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agentdiary
post Jul 7 2013, 12:00 AM

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Might be a messy scene in BNM tying to put down the fire on the problematic debts problems. I am sure there is enough whistle blower out there both from pundits and higher profile like Matthias Chang in his blog..... sign.

Sell now? i think a bit too late lah. Just to share, many agents I know especially in sub-sale are having bad business since end of 2012.

QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jul 6 2013, 11:52 PM)
Great analysis ! After the BNM announce the new rules, the property market will collapse in the next 6 months ! These BNM rules which allows investors to borrow a mere 35 years max is considered watershed decision that will kick start the 2013 bubble burst. The previous allowable tenure of a whopping 40 years were considered the root cause of the property bubble, hence the BNM now made the critical correction of their grieve mistake made previously. After the new BNM rulings, all flippers will be badly affected by the credit crunch. Money supply will be profoundly tighten, and interest rates is expected to rise by at least 200 basis points by this max 35 years ruling. This ruling will be considered the defining moment in the history of malaysian property sector. Bubble will burst and everybody should sell sell sell now to avoid being trapped and become the greatest fool  cry.gif
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agentdiary
post Jul 7 2013, 12:10 AM

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A flower seller will say flower is fragrance and beauty.

don't get it? check your brain....


QUOTE(Martinis @ Jul 7 2013, 12:08 AM)
Read that Michael Yam says in fact there is insufficient supply. CIMB research also reports that housing starts lowest in 2011 or 2012. So, is it too much supply or insufficient supply? I think there is a shortage of supply. This shortage is going to get worse. How to drop?

Shortening tenure from 40 years to 35 years is not limiting loans and will hardly have any effects. Purchasers with the strongest purchasing power mostly 35 years or older. they could not even get more than 25 to 30 years for loans anyway.

Last thing, it is not a foregone conclusion that rates must go up. It might stay put or even go lower.

All you just stated are just your PROJECTION.

Get it? No?
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agentdiary
post Jul 10 2013, 08:05 AM

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the liquidity squeeze is happening everywhere and fast. there is no way out except massive dosage of QE. more expansion or tapering, either way, we're doomed.

But never mind, remember the favorite mantra? property is the best hedge against inflation, supply is tight, demand is high and price is entering correction before surge again. Let's see what happen next 12 - 18 month to vindicate the mantras.


Liquidity collaspe in blueschip China corporation


Our govt bond also shown the similar trend as in US:


user posted image


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 10 2013, 01:36 AM)
a long article, do read and decide if it's pretty accurate or all bs. the article is bearish, of course.

excerpts:
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agentdiary
post Jul 10 2013, 08:36 AM

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Must read. Good analysis by Sam Chee Kong. He is not bearish but just painting a true picture to us.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 10 2013, 01:36 AM)
a long article, do read and decide if it's pretty accurate or all bs. the article is bearish, of course.

excerpts:
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agentdiary
post Jul 10 2013, 10:25 AM

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It is a double swords. Rate trend is clearly heading north now.

QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 10 2013, 08:52 AM)
If you're buying when prices are peaked you're essentially locking in the highest commitment (monthly installment payment) for the next 30-35 years. If the market goes south, you've practically loss on equity as the value of your asset declines... (please also bear in mind... your commitment to the bank is still the same). Yes, the value of your house may return to the value that you purchased it in the future. But what does this all ultimately mean? It means that, if you enter at the highest price, your greatest loss is the opportunity that you would have if you entered at a lower price. This opportunity comes in the form of an earlier upgrade to a better house, basically more funds to do other things instead of just paying of installments.

I hope that helps to give you some clarity and especially a different POV to what others here may preach (i.e. anytime is a good time to buy, you need it, you can afford it, you buy)... I don't like paying for over priced items (i.e. priced way above its value)  biggrin.gif
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agentdiary
post Jul 10 2013, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 10 2013, 03:40 PM)
Well you mistaken in what I am trying to say here. All necessities are going up right now compared to a few years ago, food, oil etc not just properties. Not that they always go up.

And why gold went down? Because we cant eat gold and we cant live in it. But hey, gold can still go up.

That was why car price in Malaysia are still the way it is in Malaysia, expensive like hell although they are crap. Because it is a neccessity to all Malaysians except me.
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U have misunderstood between pricing on normal goods and leverage assets. The later is complex and depend largely on the messy of rate and servicing it. That is why debts level and econ performance matter.

agentdiary
post Jul 10 2013, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 10 2013, 06:08 PM)
Why would your parents laugh when ppl took a 9 year loan for hire purchase? I've changed 3 cars in 6 years and all of em I took 9 years. What's the problem? maybe you should enlighten me. The most I lost as compared to others would be a couple of thousand when I try to sell them back to the bank but my banking account is cash loaded I have no problem doing that. In 6 years time I did twice early settlement for my hire purchase and once for my home loan. Taking longer tenure period loan does not mean it's a stupid move to begin with. Especially when you know what exactly you can do with your money.  smile.gif
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9 yrs? Wow. U r the victim of our poor economy.
Currently it appear normal simply bcoz of the super low intetests.

agentdiary
post Jul 11 2013, 09:27 AM

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DIBS is risky. Don't blame blinder by your conspiracy urge.

QUOTE(barbabas @ Jul 11 2013, 08:58 AM)
The Gov are too kill DIBS too? How soon?

and what's more they are up too? Pretty sneaky eh?

For those who haven't aware yet, importante!

Who will buy SPNB PR1MA PPA1M if there lotsa options.

It's like offering PROTON to the market. How to make PROTON looks competitive? Answer: Funny Act

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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agentdiary
post Jul 11 2013, 11:49 AM

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Statistically and GINI rating, Malaysia is on 10% (likely to be lesser as our GINI is one of the highest on par with India/China) control 90%, not 20% control 80% wealth.

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 11 2013, 10:06 AM)
Forgot to get back to this.

Yes 20% and 20% is actually a lot. And these 20% if you are talking about in the world, will strive to get the best for which is properties cars and stuff. They maybe the billionaires of these world. Or in the range of at least 0.1b assets.
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agentdiary
post Jul 15 2013, 03:01 PM

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past 2 weeks or so, the BNM busy intervening the market to maintain the rate. Mind you, active intervening isn't without a cost.

current bond yield has near pre 2008 era and the mortgage rate back then was around 6 - 6.5%....

borrowers owe their gratitude to BNM....


QUOTE(katijar @ Jul 15 2013, 12:03 PM)
Referring to http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgruber/20...d-higher-rates/,

do you think Malaysians can afford higher interest rates?
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agentdiary
post Jul 15 2013, 06:36 PM

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i virtually watch MGS every trading day since 2011 and trade/balance payment/savings in monthly basis.

a scientific and calculated guess is, as long as our reserve is enough to cover. To gain in reserve, we must have + trade balance or + fiscal balance or both. What we're facing now is a looming problems:

1. our saving to GDP has shrank from 130+% in 2008 to 100% in May 2013, household debts increase from 70+% to 82% in the same period. A typical over dependency consumption economy that our govt adopt lately.

2. We have high reserve but our total reserve is only able to cover about 85% of govt debts. still short by 15%!

3. Balance payment kept dropping in higher speed since Jan 2013. And we're going to see red very very soon for the first time in 16 yrs!!! When it''s red, reserve will be used up even faster rate to pay for large ticket on going project like MRT which is hugely capitalized.

4. To cover the short, apart from the above, we can also sell bond oversea which BNM is doing now. Current the ownership has been increase tremendously fast from merely 20% in 2010 to over 40% now. The price? We're giving up more control in interests rate to external force.

So, guess what next? only god knows.......


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 15 2013, 05:08 PM)
rates r under pressure for sure. the cost is a depr rm. question of how long can bnm resist n how far rm will depr... officially, bank analysts say 3.30 to usd is a given, so possible 3.50 then...
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agentdiary
post Jul 17 2013, 09:31 PM

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robust growth this year? hahaha

do you have any ideal what BNM inject last 5 months to stabilize the market for your robust ideal? if you know as you claim meeting with economist, isn't it contradict to your robust claim? or you have no ideal what BNM really doing recently?

i will tell you if you ask.



QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 17 2013, 06:22 PM)
A recent meeting amongst economist has already point to the robust growth for most ASEAN economies this year. Some may fare much better than last year as you might already know countries like Philippines and Singapore are lifting their projection upwards.

Malaysia will just hang on in the very right place.
There are alot of people that are gonna invest in Malaysian properties this year as well. As you might already know, the mainstream media has reported that the Govt is considering several new liberalisation on the real estate sector to allow foreign insitutional buying.

Malaysian private sector have proposed several new inftrastructure plans to the Cabinet soon. The latest news is Warisan Merdeka will be ground-breaking soon as I think they just had Rule 5 meeting regarding the public protests and had overcome it quite reasonably well. TQ.
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agentdiary
post Jul 17 2013, 09:41 PM

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highly recommend to read the World War Z, a totally different stories and very good and excited! you will learn how to kill a zombie in detail, i.e. at what distance or how to slash your weapon... when to use fireawarm and what season to kill ......
agentdiary
post Jul 17 2013, 09:45 PM

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suggest you to print your own comment and magnate to your fridge until 1st Jan 2014.



QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 17 2013, 09:42 PM)
There is a difference in monetary and fiscal policies there.

As far as macroeconomy is concerned, the Corporates and Banks expect Malaysia to report a relatively robust average 5% in GDP. This is to justify the momentum going forward with the ETP Plans. (btw the construction sector growth of between 18% to 25% y-o-y, is averagingly able to offset all the declines in other sectors, if any would to happen)

A very simple fact finder is: (1) automobile sales is expected to hit another record (2) healthy growth in loans (3) stock market is high (4) liquidity is high (5) construction is the prime mover of the economy now.

I'm an economic student, by the way. smile.gif
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agentdiary
post Jul 17 2013, 09:55 PM

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you better have a good explanation why the 10 yrs MGS yield reach above 3.8% (happened just today) while claim we have high liquidity? how it is possible?? rclxub.gif rclxub.gif



QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 17 2013, 09:51 PM)
Don't worry about that... it is part of my job anyway.

At the end of the day, it all comes down whether how much confidence you have in the Malaysian economy (cut the politics away). As a Malaysian, and as a DAP supporter, I still think our country is heading towards the right direction now that DAP has a bigger voice.

It is also interesting to note that Malaysia will become a 30 millionth population country very soon.  (Our population has crossed 29.6 million in the latest data from Statistics Department)
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agentdiary
post Jul 17 2013, 10:07 PM

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omg!

you really have no ideal...

QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 17 2013, 10:00 PM)
Very simple... our Government is raising money, more bonds, more bonds etc, to fund the you-know infrastructure plan.

I think DanaInfra has a news today in the media.

What I mean by high liquidity is the money supply in the market. The banks are flush with cash and deposits... and the customers are buying more investment products with cash. There was a slight mention in this recently at BNM press conference.
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