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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V129, All time high!

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SKY 1809
post Apr 3 2013, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Apr 3 2013, 04:55 PM)
Interesting quote:

"The quite heavy artificial support on the index in the past two weeks have been done by local funds which are farmed out to foreign fund managers and therefore has been classified as foreign funds"

Source
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Is that the good reason for the CEO to get a good pay rise hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Apr 4 2013, 09:41 AM)
Wah.. My Favco really goreng macam pisang
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Well done, and congratulation.

Nice call. notworthy.gif
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 4 2013, 09:53 AM)
if short during yesterday down -50 time, now is like "ant on the hot pant"  tongue.gif

A 24 hours later reverse of total 70 points x Rm50 per contract = RM3.5k

x 20 contract = 70k
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Make or lose one car in one day hmm.gif

Maybe Genting Casino has better chance hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:01 AM)
Five satu fatt die...

Speculative stock more of your flavour.... tongue.gif

Highly political linked... as well... quick quick 4..  laugh.gif

But I am vested... sweat.gif
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Wow yr Cypark goes to the moon. hmm.gif

I think it is a quite safe stock to buy even CI slumps. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 11:07 AM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 4 2013, 11:05 AM)
Yucks!

Tak nak!

See Big Man or not? tongue.gif

Speculative meh?
Why here talk as if all futures players always lose money and as if they simply short or long?
My friend won a nice chunk yesterday leh.
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Well, whether market goes down or up.

Many traders claim to make lot of money one.


SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:15 AM)
Market often play out people want and not predictable... you want it down it goes up, you want it up, then suddenly goes down.

Kena many times before now don't want to time the market liao, buy based on fundamentals only.  rclxms.gif
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Ya lah, if u buy a stock with a PE of 3x ( non red stocks ), how much can it goes down ?

Get prepared to average down just in case if does sinks to PE of 1x ( worst comes to worst )


My thought only.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 11:19 AM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Apr 4 2013, 11:21 AM)
laugh.gif we waiting your PE 3X recommendation
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If u use some Android software to scan through, u may get some surprise here and there.

Of course, all data are in raw forms , needed to be certified by yourself.
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:32 AM)
Don;t like tune ins... FA not good... hmm.gif

Got good FA + goreng stocks ah?  drool.gif
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Got Favco laugh.gif


SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:35 AM)
Last time got when PE very low that time ... pity sold liao.  sad.gif

Now too high to get in... doh.gif
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BUT if future profit double , or triple , then still cheap.

But if u stick to historical data, then expensive.

Don't u value plantations and property stocks on that basis ?

Or u want to stick to past and super low historical costs as yardsticks icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 11:41 AM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:45 AM)
safer to use old yardsticks.. cause if the future growth did not pan out still safe.

But have to make sure ler, that the company can generate at least some future growth.

Double, triple profit is too speculative...

Like plantation, we look for tree maturity and unplanted landbank. laugh.gif Even CPO stagnant.. still got growth.  tongue.gif
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Wow , if u use old yardsticks and still can spot low PE with super goreng ones.

Then u are super good liao. notworthy.gif


SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:45 AM)
safer to use old yardsticks.. cause if the future growth did not pan out still safe.

But have to make sure ler, that the company can generate at least some future growth.

Double, triple profit is too speculative...

Like plantation, we look for tree maturity and unplanted landbank. laugh.gif Even CPO stagnant.. still got growth.  tongue.gif
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But somehow u bank in the future ( good ) values of the Plantation lands to buy.

If plantation lands depreciate like a car, then u still want to buy laugh.gif
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 11:57 AM)
Look at re-valuation date  mah.. you can still find some plantation landbank still valued in 1980's at 2k /ha... how to depreciate... laugh.gif
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Ya, I bought Asiatic at rm 1, just like u banking on land value factor.

But over time I changed from farsighted to shortsighted just like yr Favco blush.gif

But LUCKILY still got change to sell a bit at rm 9 or so ( can say by luck only.)

Now I do not know whether I am farsighted or shortsighted yawn.gif

Time can really test one own patience .

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 12:16 PM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Apr 4 2013, 12:04 PM)
FAVCO is one of the stocks mentioned by Cold Eyes lah...

Last night I check its latest quarterly results. Some of my observations:
- Full year profit for 2012 up, but last quarter profit down
- Cost of sales increased
- FCF also down
- In Performance Review section, quarterly results have been glossed over, and only full year results are mentioned

I feel a bit uneasy with the counter  hmm.gif
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But u just stop at the present, what about the future.

Why Muhibbah did not sue the Government for losing rm 400min Asia HUb.

I think they are fairly compensated with good projects ........

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 12:24 PM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Apr 4 2013, 12:20 PM)
Nice return there thumbup.gif

I guess u must be holding Asiatic in early 2000's
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Well, Celcom was my fav way back in Year 2009.

Now, peiseh if u asked me about this stock cos I sold it for chicken profit.
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Apr 4 2013, 12:29 PM)
Finally u submitted some homework today tongue.gif
Turnaround require years to have end result, at least 2-3 years based on my observation

I'm sure i will not invest immediately during the downfall, but i will observe its financial result by quarter/annually, figure definitely won't lie icon_rolleyes.gif
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It still about timing , right ?

If common sense tell u it can turnaround, then u can get it very cheap.

Of course, when u are 100% sure, price could double or triple.

That is the fair price u have to pay for.

That is why early birds in property investments can really make lot of money ( if u get it right )

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 12:36 PM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 12:40 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 4 2013, 12:19 PM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif
I think your remiser got call from me is it?  whistling.gif

tongue.gif

Monday's paper: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...14&sec=business

user posted image

Daiman's land bank is how much?
How much is the stock's market cap?

smile.gif
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Wow Asiatic is quite on par with UEM land in land size, only thing it is in Kulai.

But land value captured is super low laugh.gif
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 03:58 PM

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rm 4 ler, but goes Holland , do not look for me laugh.gif

Daiman Development Bhd, Trading Buy

Cheapest Iskandar proxy

· Cheapest pure Iskandar play with enviable growth prospects and strong dividend track record

· Deep value with 2,286-acres of under-appreciated land bank to leverage on Iskandar Malaysia’s success

· Potential M&A candidate with 53% of market value in liquid assets (RM1.10/share)

· Fair value of RM4.00 based on 50% discount to RM7.94 RNAV (94% upside potential)

Hidden gem. Daiman (share price RM2.06, market cap RM437m, 51%-owned by Tay Thiam Song & family from Singapore) is an asset-rich property developer with 2,286 acres of land bank in Johor. Its property development projects are mainly in Kota Tinggi (2,016 acres), Tebrau (106 acres), Plentong (43 acres) and Senai (18 acres), which make it one of the most leveraged to Iskandar Malaysia’s rising prospects. Its 1HFY13 earnings surged 61% y-o-y to RM21.8m, driven by strong performance of its property development operation.

Undervalued land bank in Johor. The 2,286 acres of Johor land bank is still carried at average historical cost of RM5.90psf - significantly lower than market price, which has appreciated steeply over the past three years along with rising interest in Iskandar Malaysia. We estimate every RM5psf increase in the land price would boost our fair value by 28%. Coupled with rising Johor property prices, its low land cost has enabled the group to register superior pretax margins of 28%-44% over the past six years. Its hotel tower in central JB which will be operational by 2014, will be managed by Hilton under the brand name ‘DoubleTree by Hilton’ and is set to capture the under-served hospitality market in Johor.

Re-rating catalyst in the pipeline. Its MD has been buying Daiman shares aggressively this year. YTD, he has purchased 286,500 shares at an average price of RM1.99 each, which support our view that the company is poised for a re-rating. Daiman has sufficient S108 tax credit to declare bumper dividends of up to RM316m or RM1.49/share. The probability of a special dividend appears high given that the Tay family owns a majority stake of 51%. Also, we believe that it could materialize given its strong property sales (likely record high revenue in FY13) and generous dividend track record (33%-68% over past four years). Daiman could also be a privatisation target given its rich embedded value (53% of its equity value in liquid assets).

Unjustified Iskandar laggard. We derived a fair value of RM4.00 based on 50% discount to our RM7.94 RNAV (assuming average land price of RM12.8psf). Trading at only 0.3x P/RNAV and 0.4x P/BV (vs peers’ 1.2x), Daiman is the cheapest Iskandar proxy. This is unjustified, as the stock offers strong earnings visibility underpinned by a booming Johor property market and resilient local demand for affordable landed properties. Annualising its 1HFY13 earnings, Daiman is only trading at 10x FY13 PE and offering 4% net yield (assuming 40% payout – similar to FY12). We believe a re-rating is imminent given the recent rally of other Iskandar proxies such as UEM Land, Country View, Tebrau Teguh, Keck Seng and Crescendo. We recommend accumulating this undervalued Iskandar play.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 04:00 PM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 4 2013, 04:00 PM)
Ah Lu says resistance at 2.30 & 2.60

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2013/03/daim...ut-finally.html

Thanks to Cherroy for highlighting this stock.  wub.gif
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shortsighted people normally talk about resistance laugh.gif

Because they cannot see very far lah icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 4 2013, 04:03 PM
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 04:26 PM)
Apa so funny.. tongue.gif
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Nice stock u have 5184

Fatt until die laugh.gif
SKY 1809
post Apr 4 2013, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 4 2013, 04:29 PM)
If you notice, most of the value stocks, low pE ones, those coma stocks all go up in activity.. can be FF meh?

I have zero index stock in my holdings... tongue.gif
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Kinda Election Theme play.

Jib knows well what stocks China man holds ...

Time to make them mabuk laugh.gif

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