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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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klbull
post Mar 18 2013, 09:41 AM

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Part of a generation of young people in Malaysia will suffer (financial) death by DIBS if the new property launch party continues unabated a couple more years. The late stayers, the late comers and the serial party goers. A speculative generation leveraged to the hilt, never ever having faced extreme adversity, not appreciating debt (and its provider, the bank) is a four letter word that will bite you in the behind when you are down.

The developer, having sold, built and completed his highrise project within 3/4 years, washes his hands and moves on with his fat profits to the next project. He knows he's home free. The face off is between the property buyer/borrower and the bank until the 30/35 year loan is repaid. In a meltdown, banks will look after themselves first. Who's going to look after you?
klbull
post Mar 18 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ Mar 18 2013, 10:45 AM)
There are many deep pocket investors out of your imagination. I recently viewed a few "brand new" condo unit (out of 30+), with electric wire still hanging on the ceiling, but the condo had been VP and tenanted for more than 6 years.
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In my experience, the so called deep pocket investor is rarely seen, seldom heard from when the economy is fine. When a recession or property slump hits, a lot of hidden issues suddenly become evident. Example:
Mr Deep Pocket has borrowed heavily from many financial institutions
His other leveraged property investments also suffer sharp price falls
He cannot liquidate his investments quickly enough in a slumping market to avoid sharp losses
His rental income falls off a cliff as tenants cannot pay rents or disappear altogether

Mr Deep Pocket suddenly becomes Mr Sleepless Nights in a recessive economy. Business creditors are after him for long outstanding bills. His business is starved of cash flow and employees are leaving. Banks threaten to foreclose his delinquent loans. Credit is tight and interest rates are exorbitant.

Of course, the above is purely imaginary. However, just ask an experienced businessman how he fared in those recessionary years 1986/7 and 1997/8. Things have been relatively good the last dozen or so years. However, when it next rains, it really is going to pour. The signs for the property market to correct sharply are all there.
klbull
post Mar 19 2013, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 19 2013, 08:14 AM)
I have US colleagues and they personally told me that they will never buy any properties ever....especially the younger ones (about less than 35 years old)...they prefer to just rent a house their whole life...based on their experience during the 2007/2008 housing crisis...
this is actual comments from my own colleagues in US... i don't make this up... smile.gif
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That is an extreme, if understandable, reaction. It's probably because these younger ones ( age 30's ?) did not profit at all, or not much, from earlier property ownership before being caught in the 2007/8 financial meltdown, did'nt have enough buffer. Buying at market highs, their hard earned capital was probably wiped out. Their experience was therefore all bad. For this, blame the greedy lenders and investment bankers who helped create the property euphoria leading to the subprime crisis. It does'nt need to be that way.

In Malaysia, there is also a new generation of young property owners shaping up to be the local subprime aspirants. The triple 'B' promoters who believe property prices always rise long term, banks are forever friendly, interest rates perpetually low, economy always buoyant, civil unrest impossible. Let me just say that property values are largely a function of economic growth and social stability. If these two ingredients are missing, bang goes property prices among other things. Then triple 'B' can quickly be turned into single 'B' by banks. A new class of young bankrupts. Is it worth the risk at this late stage of the property cycle?
klbull
post Mar 19 2013, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 18 2013, 10:49 PM)
Appreciate your compliment. One thing I learn the hard way from the 3 years writing blog is that most readers like to ridicule honest analysis  sweat.gif

What I have seen happened with family in 82' and 97' really a nightmare that I vow never to see it from my home.

Been in this industry since early 2000 and consider myself not lazy spending spare time to learn finance and economics. All I can tell is assets class opportunity is always moving from one to another from time to time. Real estate in Malaysia is near its end at least for mid term.

Thus, I sold most last year and urging close friends and family to realize profit first. I walk my talk. Always believe paper 'profit' is just a mirage. It is like masturbation, period.
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Some readers have a self interested agenda, others are just flippant or too clever by half, while most will not believe what you write anyway. Notwithstanding you honestly shared your past experience and painstaking conclusions with no ulterior motives. That's human nature. If only one or two readers take note and save themselves from much future grief buying an overpriced property at the wrong time, one has done one's best.

Have a good day.
klbull
post Mar 23 2013, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 23 2013, 01:21 AM)
at 250% total debt/gdp, boland not far behind most of the world's 10 largest economies and euro-crisis ones. but gdp/capita so low compared to them, can't be in good shape.
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database...l#axzz2OI0xKhDC

central banks probably do what they best - suck it up to the ruling gomen and not raise too many alarm bells. when it pops like in greece, ireland and spain, just let the politicans deal with it.
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Good observation. Malaysia's suck it up culture is deployed in so many aspects of our life. Perusing BNM's latest report and their 'hands up in the air' attitude to house prices escalation, you get the feeling that ruling politicians have been calling the shots in continued easy monetary policies to stimulate the economy since 2008. That economic report is an unapologetic excuse for a job poorly done in 2012. BNM has forsaken its regulatory role in deference to political convenience for the past few years. They are so far behind the house price curve whatever remedies they try now or in the future will have very severe ramifications. Bureaucrats are best at doing nothing that endangers their jobs. We consumers, on the other hand, hope for the best but can brace for a speeding train crash.


klbull
post Mar 25 2013, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Mar 25 2013, 02:52 PM)
Correct me if I'm wrong on the following calculation....
140% Debts/Disposable Household Income
If Mr Z debt amt 300,000
Disposable Income = 300,000/1.4 = 214,285 (Annual income after Tax)
Mr Z monthly income = 214,285/12 = 17,857 (after tax)
300,000 monthly payment est 1,500, I'll round off to 2,000
Mr Z income for other expenses after debt payment monthly = 17,857 - 2,000 = 15,857

I'm not into economic study or whatsoever, jus wonder anything wrong on my calculation?  hmm.gif  hmm.gif  hmm.gif

And this does not included or concern on assets value too right? If the asset value 1,000,000 now?  hmm.gif  hmm.gif
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I'm not sure what you are trying to get at but assuming a Debt of RM300k for Mr Z got you into trouble straight away. From that assumption, and working backwards, you derived income of RM17,857 pm. According to the Stats Dept, the mean Household Income in Malaysia in 2009 was only RM4,025 pm. A far cry from 17k.


klbull
post Mar 26 2013, 03:02 PM

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The guy is right. He did'nt claim to be an expert in O&G. Goes to show, you don't need too much intellectual power to be financially successful.
klbull
post Mar 26 2013, 03:11 PM

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On the average, better chances of not losing it all if intellectually powerful. The old adage about a fool, his money and their parting of ways is not an idle observation.
klbull
post Mar 27 2013, 04:10 PM

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Debt is like a weapon. You have to learn how and when to use it, and how much to take on, to make the best use of debt. In property investment, the judicious use of debt is almost indispensable.
klbull
post Mar 28 2013, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ Mar 28 2013, 09:27 AM)
I have no problem with that, the only worry I have is those who came late to the party think they are the early birds.
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These birds will soon find out the party is being held at a cuckoo's nest and there's no escape. You can't worry for those who do not heed the laws of economic gravity, or who think such laws do not apply to them, or who think themselves smart enough to beat the odds.

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