Asean bubble fears emerge
When a team of analysts at Credit Suisse visited Indonesia a few weeks ago to take the temperature of southeast Asia’s biggest economy, they were startled by what they were told by one of the country’s biggest property developers.
Ciputra Development, which builds luxury condominiums, said that while prices in central Jakarta, the capital, had been growing at a rapid clip – about 30-40 per cent a year – a new trend had emerged.
Demand had started to spill over to greater Jakarta and even to so-called second-tier cities, where Ciputra had seen property prices jump 50 per cent last year.
“We felt this was evidence of a property bubble,” says Robert Prior-Wandesforde, director of research in the bank’s Singapore office.
On Thursday Indonesia’s central bank held its benchmark rate at a record low of 5.75 per cent and said that inflationary pressures were “expected to subside”.
For some, anecdotal evidence from the region tells a worrying story. While the economies of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew an average of 5.6 per cent last year, making the region a standout performer amid global economic wobbles, there are dark clouds gathering.
The price of key assets, such as property, is rising fast as monetary easing in developed countries continues to send “hot” money from advanced economies in the west, chasing anything that will produce yield.
Singapore’s local currency bond market grew by its fastest rate last year, while in neighbouring Malaysia the value of foreign holdings of government bonds has jumped 550 per cent to M$215bn (US$69bn) since 2009, according to HSBC.
In Thailand, consumer loan growth is at the highest level of Asean’s four biggest economies; Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand itself.
That has started to fuel fears of a bubble, which could have serious consequences for the management of the region’s economies, possibly acting as a brake on growth.
“The Asean ‘tiger cubs’ are heating up rapidly and are set to bubble over in due course despite varying degrees of structural progress,” Credit Suisse said in a report on Asia published this week.
That is not to say that the region’s fundamental strengths are at immediate risk. This week, the Asian Development Bank, in its annual economic outlook, pointed out that Southeast Asia was the only “subregion” in Asia to see growth accelerate year-on-year in 2012, led by a recovery in Thailand and strong public spending in the Philippines.
“This buoyancy is set to continue on the back of robust consumption, rising investment and increased intraregional trade,” it said.
Gross domestic product growth was projected to reach 5.4 per cent this year, rising to 5.7 per cent in 2014.
Plans for an Asean economic community in 2015 would boost trade volumes and help diversify export markets, the report said.
Yet Changyong Rhee, the ADB’s chief economist, warned that Asian policy makers should watch out for asset bubbles and be vigilant against inflation.
He said that inflation had remained “in check” at an average of 3.7 per cent in Asia last year. It would likely rise to 4-4.2 per cent. But he added: “I’m afraid I have to say now is [the] time for us to pay a little bit more attention to the inflation rate. Policy makers have to look out for price pressures.”
He singled out Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea as economies where asset price bubbles were most likely.
In Singapore, Asia’s 10th largest economy, asset price cooling measures taken recently have had some effect. The cost of buying the document that allows people to buy cars has plunged.
Draconian measures in place since January to cool a rampant property market, largely fuelled by wealthy mainland Chinese and Indonesian buyers, have slowed the market somewhat.
Mr Prior-Wandesforde was concerned that policy makers may be behind the curve on spotting inflationary pressure, arguing that monetary policy in Indonesia has been “too loose for too long”. Central banks in the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia were “in significant danger” of making the same mistake.
However, Asean finance ministers, meeting in Brunei last week, signalled that the authorities were aware of the pressures. Abd Rahman Ibrahim, Brunei’s second finance minister, admitted that monetary easing in industrialised countries could have “unintentional adverse impacts on the region”.
“But we’re confident that our central bank colleagues have monitored this issue closely and have addressed potential vulnerabilities,” he said.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/177bcfbc-a1...144feabdc0.html