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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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EddyLB
post Mar 20 2013, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 20 2013, 12:39 PM)
Opss i had to change. typo just now. hehe. I would choose A actually.hoaaaa. many replied to my reply. smile.gif thanks guys. Anyway in my opinion, there is a reason why C is lagging behind. It is on the road that not many cars flowing as compared to A and B. If you ask me, I will definitely choose A because in commercial, I believe, die die must buy good facing (doesnt necessary mean facing main road coz based on my analysis it all depends on flow of traffic. there are some shoplots not facing main road getting more traffic than those facing main road). Anyway, these are the businesses of individual lots:

A: Kedai langsir

B: Kedai perabot

C: Kedai perabot

From my observation, A's business is thriving while lot B and C are competing with each other. However, take note buying A needs RM170K and one will have a risk of having trouble to sell back due to low valuation. One day, valuation might keep up with the price one will pay but it will take a while.
Anyway, what do you guys think with these investments? Good or bad or risky or what?

If you ask me, for a bumi, one better put his money like this:

Put in whatever one has in AS1M, ASN and take loan for RM400K in ASB. ROI combined would be around 7%. no pening2 with tenant, no pening2 to sell back.

Unless Lot A, B and C future capital appreciation and rental incremental are substantial. This is why sometimes I always ask myself to weigh between rental and other investments.

For flipping, provided one has bought at good development, this is a sure win if one can sell with a profit by taking into consideration of rpgt as well.
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Bro, with that kind of return, I will sapu all 3 biggrin.gif

Where got such return in KV anymore ? Looks like I got to visit outside of KV ASAP
EddyLB
post Mar 20 2013, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Mar 20 2013, 11:20 AM)
This is an interesting but quite unlikely scenario. You will very rarely find rental rates in a certain development diverging by as much as that. Comparing RM3.6K vs RM2.8K that is divergence of almost 30%, assuming all are similar type units (intermediate vs inter or corner vs corner). Even on location wise for commercial, unless the popularity is extremely uneven (ie shops facing main road all busy but shops behind extremely quiet).

But to your question:

a) Market has not dropped but you are paying over the odds of market price - ie bigger risk. If rents fall to the level of Lot C gradually, you lose yield (ROI). If you need to dispose of your property urgently (short sale), the odds of you finding a buyer are lower, as buyer would need to top up RM80K on top of 15% downpayment.
b) Same as A except even worse - in case of sale buyer would need to top up RM210K extra on top of 15% just for you to breakeven.
c) I would buy C (unless some external subjective factors like condition sucks or location really bad) - as the risk is all covered. You match the banks valuation. If rents drop to match the lower level, you are still unaffected, and if rents increase to match the level of Lots A or B you profit.
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I haven't increased one of my tenant's rental since 5 years ago. Although someone offered to rent the shop for 20% more. All because he is very prompt, and never never kacau/complain even 1 time unlike my other tenants. I will rather keep good tenant than having headache over 20% more rental. To me, it is not worth it.
EddyLB
post Mar 20 2013, 07:53 PM

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Just a small fry compare to the many taiko here biggrin.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 20 2013, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Mar 20 2013, 08:05 PM)
Boss dun b shy la. I read thru all ur Genneva posts. Really salute la. Not everyone can do a proper calculation and act smart like u. If u r my biz partner, I can sleep well liao.

thumbup.gif
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Haha those Genneva days. Really missed those people who believe in the Ponzi scheme. Pat Lu, Anoy_me, etc sweat.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 20 2013, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Mar 20 2013, 10:26 PM)
Yup, I admit I do not have much experience on commercial properties.

For rental payment promptly, one of my mentors recently taught me a "technique" that you can use (which my family has used it succesfully). Collect 1 years rental in advance via post-dated cheques, dated on 1st day of the month, but charge only slightly lower rental (ie 5%-10% below market).

Then deposit the cheques on the 1st of each month as landlord. Tenant only has to make sure sufficient money to clear the cheque during the 1st of the month in their account.

They won't cheat because if they bounce the cheque then they'll be blacklisted.

Of course this method only works with middle-class tenants. Those lower class tenants are different story la. Of course, the tenant can cancel the cheques too but that's an extra hassle to him/her.

Do you reckon this method can be used on commercial props?
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Yes, it helps a bit. But my experience is PD cheque or no PD cheque, if the tenant can pay promptly, they will pay. If the tenant has cashflow problem, then on the 30th, they will ask you to postpone banking in the cheque. So, the problem will still be there even with PD cheque.

For those Pak Hitam, I even collect 1 year rent in advance and charge them 30% higher than market. So, rental can actually differ greatly on the same property. But you will suffer as these tenants will bring a lot of trouble to you and your property. So, call me racist, but I am not renting to them in the future after 1 bad experience laugh.gif

EddyLB
post Mar 20 2013, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Mar 20 2013, 10:48 PM)
There r some $$$ not ours to earn. Some tenant who come to u n tell u how rich he is, beta watchout. I prefer those really tok less, ask less n pay on time type.

Once an insurance agency tenant told me how well his biz was but alwiz pay 1 mth late. I decided to just terminate him after TA. Prob solved. Get another new tenant n raise 20% n touch wood, a very gd pay master. Din incrwase much after tat. Onli twice thru out 8yrs tenure b4 I sell of with 1:4. Thank god.
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I even have 1 tenant who pays promptly every month, but complain a lot on maintenance. Air cond not cold, toilet leaking, door lock spoilt, fridge spoilt, toilet stuck etc etc. Every month also got complaint. Until I fed up and offer her RM300 pm and ask her to take care of the maintenance for me laugh.gif

Suddenly we all talk about rental issues tongue.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 22 2013, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ Mar 22 2013, 05:12 PM)
GDP in construction? rclxms.gif How much the cost of the food and expense they really spent for GDP? or they just take the RM, convert to rupiah and boost their GDP in Indonesia? flex.gif
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Haha I think he is being sarcastic laugh.gif Compare to Singapore who only take in filthy rich migrants laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 23 2013, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 06:42 PM)
Yep. Just bought a unit at e-tiara for 410K yesterday.

Now with 2 props in my belt...I hope my own prediction won't come true....biggrin.gif, but who knows, eh?
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shakehead.gif shakehead.gif

You spoke so strongly against buying properties now and suggest better wait for the price to come down. But you actually went against your own words notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

I hope other down down down camp here meant what they say and put their money where their mouth is. How to believe what the down camp say in the future ? Somemore dare to tell us....

Bugger....behind the back, they grab properties.... doh.gif No wonder the price is still strong cry.gif

Better call my agents again tomorrow and BBB laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 23 2013, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 09:41 PM)
I still do. In my opinion, props in kl city centre, mont kiara and damansara are insane.

And I NEVER said that I won't invest. I just said I won't touch anything more than 500k with a barge pole. biggrin.gif

Which is true. I only bought it as it is only 410k @ 617 sq feet.
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Twisting and turning.....you are good politician material, like Samy Vellu laugh.gif

Anyway, I don't think serious investors will take the comments in LYN (of all places.... tongue.gif ) seriously lah.

So bro its alright if you went against your words. Many of the BBB camp are agents anyway so you don't take their comments seriously too.... laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 23 2013, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 09:58 PM)
Whatever makes you happy dude...

Anyway, this is lowyat lah, anyone that takes online opinion without any own thinking and research needs to get their head checked.

There are no absolutes. I never said that the ENTIRE housing market not sustainable. Just most of it.

And my point is, people need to think twice before jumping head first into prop investment than take for granted that props will always go up and up and up.

That is what I think the BBB people are doing.
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Hahahaha I suddenly feel very funny. For all you know, people like debtismoney, joeblow etc are buying properties behind our back trying to catch the last train. And people like zuiko, amint etc are also selling their properties in fear of the bubble burst

drool.gif drool.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 23 2013, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:23 PM)
The problem with you bbb people is that you assume too much.

You assume that they have never invested in props before and that they will not seize an opportunity when it suits them.

You also assume that what they say is not true. Props prices in Malaysia is overpriced and we may well be in a bubble.

Does it mean at in a bubble a bargain cannot be had? Of course not.

I didn't buy because I jump to every developer's hype of a launch.

Also, I stick to my principle when buying. I don't look to square feet when I buy. I look at the amount that I need to fork out and the rental yield so if the shit really hits the fan and I am right, I have the holding power to hold the prop.

That is why I said I don't buy props above 500k
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Samy Vellu, you are actually assuming too much too. I am not BBB nor bubble people. But I am HHH (hold hold hold) people, ie don't buy and don't sell people laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 23 2013, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 23 2013, 10:31 PM)
Hahahaha. I have been buying bro but i am not following my standard way in order to try out new things. But i have been extra cautious these days. Buy where i am really2 confident. 50% confident also i wont buy coz i cant afford mistakes. Not so rich like taikors here.
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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:34 PM)
Hahahaha
You like to joke
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He just make me feel black could be white, and white could be black laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 24 2013, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 24 2013, 09:12 AM)
I cant make up my mind......
Whether to laugh or to cry.....
Probably i would do both......
And i am also undecided .....
To congratulate you or to offer my condolences....
Nevertheless, i admire your honesty...
Salute!
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+1

The feeling is like arguing with someone who strongly condemn gay, but later confess he has turned gay himself, and still argue with you "i never say i will not turn gay...." laugh.gif

This post has been edited by EddyLB: Mar 24 2013, 11:57 AM
EddyLB
post Mar 25 2013, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Mar 25 2013, 02:52 PM)
Correct me if I'm wrong on the following calculation....
140% Debts/Disposable Household Income
If Mr Z debt amt 300,000
Disposable Income = 300,000/1.4 = 214,285 (Annual income after Tax)
Mr Z monthly income = 214,285/12 = 17,857 (after tax)
300,000 monthly payment est 1,500, I'll round off to 2,000
Mr Z income for other expenses after debt payment monthly = 17,857 - 2,000 = 15,857

I'm not into economic study or whatsoever, jus wonder anything wrong on my calculation?  hmm.gif  hmm.gif  hmm.gif

And this does not included or concern on assets value too right? If the asset value 1,000,000 now?  hmm.gif  hmm.gif
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I think you are thinking all household debt are related to property debt, correct ? If you are referring to household debt, the usual bank guideline will be between 40%-60% of net income. Ie. If RM10k pm / RM120k pa net income, you can probably afford a property about RM1 mil. So the debt/income should be 8-10 times. What is 1.4 times ? Just chicken feet ratio laugh.gif Especially like you said, value of properties is going up in long term.

Unfortunately household debt is not property debt only. It includes car debt, credit card debt, personal loan (don't know if education loan included or not, but I think is is part of the household debt).

In the reporting http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...hold-debt-rises, the 4th last paragraph says "The bulk of the growth was contributed by the non-bank financial institution segment (NBFI) such as Bank Rakyat Sdn Bhd and Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), as concern grows over their lending to the lower-income segments." I think this is attributed to the personal loan to mainly government servant. If you are a government servant with RM4000 monthly salary, the bank will approve you RM200,000 of personal loan.

These personal loan (and car and credit card loan) may be "non-productive loans", meaning it is consumption based instead of investment based (like property loan). So 140% is alarming if we compare to other countries. If the economy slows down, people start to lose their jobs, or interest rate increases, then we will feel the effect of servicing the debt. Suddenly, we need to use additional 20% of our income just to pay the installment.
EddyLB
post Mar 25 2013, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Mar 25 2013, 05:01 PM)
I'm aware debt inclusive of car loan, credit card outstanding and personal loan.... Tat is the reason why I rounded of the monthly installment to 2k.... Or I shld put it higher.... Lets say 4k monthly repayment in total....
Similarly working backwards, 17,857 - 4,000 = 13,857, there is still 13,857 balance for other expenditure....
Or I'll do another calculation,
Mr Y Disposable income 5,000 mthly, basing on 140% ratio again what will be his debt amt?
(5,000x12) x 1.4 = 84,000 (debt)
I base on 6% interest, 15 yrs repayment, mthly repayment will be est 710 mthly, lets round off to 1,000
5,000 (income) - 1,000 (all debts) = 4,000 balance for other expenditure....
Any wrong on the following calculation again?
Forget abt if there is any asset included in the debt....
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I agree to your calculation.

As to whether the ratio is high or not, let's compare to other countries. You can see the chart in the last page. Malaysia household debt / disposal income ratio is very high

Also depends on what type of debt. If you earn RM60k pa, and you have a housing loan of RM84k, I think it is low.

But if you earn RM60k pa, and you have a credit card loan of RM84k, I think it is high
EddyLB
post Mar 28 2013, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 28 2013, 06:42 PM)

Warning upfront for flippers (especially those with limited resources) hoping to VP in 2014-16 and sell. You might face price pressure (fighting for dwindling buyers) and higher installment cost. A war to fight from 2 fronts with limited bullets. Ask Hitler, he knows it.
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I agree, and I disagree laugh.gif I use some numbers so that it is easier to understand

1. If a person with nett income of RM10k pm, and assuming the bank's approved debt to income ratio of 50%, then he can borrow loan(s) with installment up to RM5k pm. That translates to loan(s) of roughly RM1 mil.

2. We have a misconception that flippers/speculators can buy unlimited number of properties, which causes the market to expand into a bubble. But if flippers need to leverage, then he can buy only up to RM1m worth of properties

3. Banks approve loans based on the nett income you are already earning, not future income from expected rental / capital gain on flipping etc


Scenario 1
In 2014-16, flipper/speculator's units VPed. They manage to rent out / sell. Then, all is well for them (not so well for the DDD)

Scenario 2
In 2014-16, flipper/speculator's units VPed. They can't rent out / sell. But he still can afford to service the installment. Because banks approve the loans based on his affordability. This is what many termed it as "holding power"


IMHO, the determinant of market will crash or not does not depend on the number of projects going to VPed in 2014-16 (or any period). The banks need to vet through the loan applications and make sure the buyer can afford. Especially BNM's rule tightening measures of using nett income and 70% LTV rules

This holds true PROVIDED if the country/world economic condition remain unchanged (ie. job still intact, rental market healthy, or interest rate unchanged etc ). In other words, the buyer's "holding power" is not affected. In the event that Malaysia faces recession (lose jobs, hard to rent out, interest rate increase etc), then the scenario becomes totally different. Just imagine a 2% interest rate increase on a RM1 mil loan will be translated to an increase of RM1k installment pm. For those who borrow to the max, that is strenuous to the cashflow. And eventually start off the "bursting of bubble"



EddyLB
post Mar 29 2013, 07:30 AM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Mar 29 2013, 06:52 AM)
The holding power is weaken, 20% increase auction unit in 2012 woh. More and more auction are range at 500k above woh. Bank loan approval system is not bullet proof.
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If you want to look at auctions, then it may be more meaningful to look at Non Performing Loan. Overall, BNM reported NPL is just 1.5%. And that is for total household debt. Most NPL is car and credit card loans. Not property loan.

QUOTE
However, non-performing loans for banks was lower at an improved 1.5 percent while there is a decline in revolving balances for credit cards.
http://www.kinibiz.com/story/corporate/101...ebt-levels.html


% sometimes is misleading. If you have 1000 auction is 2011, and 1200 auctions in 2012, that is 20% increase. Looks alarming ?

But if the total property is 1,000,000, the 1200 case is just 0.12% laugh.gif

Just curious, can give an example or two how to circumvent the banks rules so I can borrow more ? Take the example my nett income is RM10k pm, and I have already servicing RM5k installment now ? How to borrow more loans ?


EddyLB
post Mar 29 2013, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 29 2013, 08:36 AM)
You are assuming that the bank take into the flipper's other expenses which may be higher than the average Joe's...

Kids education and others....

What if many flippers don't really have the extra 5k to service but just gambling on a quick profitable sale....?
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You are also assuming they have other expenses laugh.gif

Anyway, if the time come, the flippers will cut down on "other expenses" rather than going into bankruptcy
EddyLB
post Mar 29 2013, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Mar 29 2013, 09:31 PM)
Aiyah, prices will only go up one la... So many foreigners queuing up to buy our properties... Lol!!! So many luxury cars on the road mean Malaysians still got lots of money!!! Lol!!!!... So many people flocking to city to work they sure need houses one... Prices sure up up up one... Hahaha!
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The lawyer from the down camp also switch side and buy RM600+ psf pigeon hole, the market how to stop going up ? vmad.gif
EddyLB
post Mar 29 2013, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 29 2013, 09:33 AM)
If they can.

Can they for example cut down their kid's education, food and other necessity to keep holding unto their props.


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Not whether they can or not. They have to. Else, its bankruptcy. End of the road to financial freedom

Kid's education, food and other necessity is in the other 50% of income lah. In my example above, bank debt to income ratio is 50%. So the living expenses is included in the RM5k. RM5k is more than enough for a decent life style in Malaysia. Can have some savings too

You sound like the banks are lending them 100% of their income. Leaving them with no margin of error.

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