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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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SUStat3179
post Apr 19 2013, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Apr 19 2013, 11:13 AM)
He's somewhat wrong with that argument though.

Gold always has an intrinsic value, plus is used as a hedge against inflation, which is its real utility.

Just because it is rarely used in daily life doesn't mean it has no value. A Toyota Altis that one uses as a daily driver is not worth more than a Lamborghini that he only uses on weekends simply because it has greater utility.
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Human beings determines what has value.

Before gold, humans have used cowrie shells for currency.

During WWII, allied POWs cigarettes have been used to trade among themselves.

The Aztecs don't put much value in gold as much as the Europeans, and wondered why they are so obsessed with the yellow metal.

Warren Buffet has a point about the utility in the investment. That is why I prefer to invest in blue chip companies that actually produces things that we need than to put money in metal that does not do much and requires me to pay people to guard it.
SUStat3179
post Apr 19 2013, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Apr 19 2013, 11:27 AM)
Blue chip has management risk. Microsoft for example is definitely blue chip yet Steve Ballmer has presided over one of the greatest declines in share price over 5 year period.

Same with Intel and Paul Otellini.

Even property has risks beyond the buyers control.

Whereas with gold unless people suddenly find a previously unknown massive gold reserve or we start mining gold from Mars, it will always have an inherent rarity.
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Of course, all things have risk. Even in gold.

Let say one day we do asteriod mining and we discovered a asteriod filled with gold, say 2 to 3 times the amount of all the gold supply on earth, what would happen to our gold then?

That is one possibility that would likely happen.

Remember, unlike other metals that actually have use, gold's utility is more on jewellery than industrial applications.

While big companies always have management risks....if they are big enough, a change of management always occur.

Nestle, for example is still going strong.

At least companies is dynamic, it changes and if invested correctly, gives more value to the investor than the inert gold.
SUStat3179
post Apr 19 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 19 2013, 11:45 AM)
yeah you are right. hence mona lisa's potrait is invaluable.
but only intrinsic value.
but buffett's style is always looking for practical stuff and point of view. which i wholly agree with him.
am not sure gold is hedge against inflation. usually that's applied towards props.
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Mona lisa is invaluable because it is unique...there is no other mona lisa in the whole wide world... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Apr 19 2013, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Apr 19 2013, 12:05 PM)
many people like to use Buffet and love to quote him literally as an investment mantra. This is quite misleading.

there are many reasons why he is all out pro-equity guy (at least publicly) and dis-credit gold as a relic of a barbarian....

- very large proportion of Berkshire is in equity.

- most of his wealth derived from dividend which pay lesser tax compare to income tax (that's no surprise why he was backing  Obama's tax increment for the rich last year. Because he is not affected!!)

- As other assets especially commodities, in the US, gains is taxable by capital gain tax. Same logic as the above. 

- His substantial ownership in Merrily Lynn and later BOA earning him entry pass to the US largest big 5 bankers club, together with JP Morgan, MP..... who we are know, close to the FED. And we know that one of the thing FED dislike to see is, any emerge of alternative to fiat system, i.e gold or Bitcoint...

His roles 'require' him to do what he's doing now.......
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Right...and he is now secretly hoarding gold and then plan to detonate a nuclear bomb in fort knox to contaminate the world's gold supply.... biggrin.gif

Come onlah, what he said makes sense.

Gold has little industrial application, the reason why we put it in such high regard is because it won't rust and it is shiny.

That's it. There is nothing more you can use it for except for some electrical components.

Other than that, you buy a gold bar, you lock in your money and you have to pay a bank to store it for you in a safe deposit box. Then it gathers dust in a bank vault somewhere...

How is your money put in productive use as compared to put your money in companies that actually makes things or provide a service for people and reap dividends when invested right.

Heck even overpriced props at least provides shelter and a place to rest.
SUStat3179
post Apr 20 2013, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Apr 20 2013, 12:48 AM)
Gold is probably a better investment than landed prop - unless you can afford to buy cash.

Assume RM100k base investment.

Option A) Use RM100k to invest into gold.
Option B) Use RM100k as downpayment to buy a RM1M landed prop and rent out + cap appreciation.

Option A) = no return except based on cap appreciation. Costs? Low to none, if you keep at home, low cost if you keep it in the Bank (safe deposit).

Option B) = cashflow negative return, so basically you hope for cap appreciation if you want any form of return until the 30 year loan period is up.
Costs?
1) Homeowner insurance.
2) Taxes (cukai pintu, cukai tanah, etc)
3) Maintenance
4) Management fees.

Basically your costs are a lot more than gold and to top it off you get taxes if you sell < 5 years (RPGT).

In both cases your only form of return (within the medium term) is in cap gains.

For gold - further advantages:
a) It is easily transferrable. If touch wood you go bankrupt, just transfer the gold to your family member and no one may be the wiser assuming you do it well. Property? Don't think the bank is stupid.
b) It is portable. If ever you need to leave the country in a hurry, 1 kg of gold is light, concealable and easily brought even on a flight. How are you going to bring your DSTH with you?
c) It can be hid. In a worst case scenario, dig a hole in your garden one midnight and bury the gold - dig it up later. Can you do that with prop? No way Jose.

So yeah, I'd rather buy gold when its low than props when its high.
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Right, and if you collect enough people may tempted to rob. Add risk of robbery and injury into the mix.

Property, depend on location. Location is unique, you buy a place wi strategic location, then you will make money no matter whether the market goes up and down. And you could rent it out.

In general, buying gold makes no sense really. The drop in prices disproves the notion that gold is safe haven.

And gold is not as convertible as you think it is. People don't generally buy gold back unless you produce certificates that prove that they sold them to you in the first place. And if they do buy physical gold from an unknown source, they will insist on a discount.

I prefer to invest in props and/or blue chip shares over gold anytime. At least the money is being used more productively into the economy making things and providing actual utility.

Or I would prefer to buy oil if I want to buy commodities, at least people constantly needs it.


SUStat3179
post Apr 20 2013, 10:18 PM

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Aiyah...in the end whether gold or props it is smarter to diversify.

Buy some gold here, some props here, some shares here....setel...

This post has been edited by tat3179: Apr 20 2013, 10:18 PM
SUStat3179
post Apr 22 2013, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Apr 22 2013, 05:05 PM)
Read the news. iWatch.  brows.gif

Btw, do you know what was Citi's price 5 years ago today? $250....not that I'm saying it's a bad investment all the time, btw. If you bought in at the trough of $10.30 you've made 4X.

But if you buy and held at the peak........sounds a bit like prop eh.
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iWatch... biggrin.gif

Ever since steve jobs passed, it seems Ives is struggling to come up with new ideas nowadays... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Apr 26 2013, 10:14 AM

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Aiyah, you don't know that Malaysia got loads of multi millionaires wanlah...can hold empty units indefinately forever wan lah....biggrin.gif

Don't worry...prop prices will never drop and will forever shoot to the moon...biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Apr 26 2013, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(hokin @ Apr 26 2013, 12:52 PM)
I am surprised that you wrote what you wrote as I thought you are the DDD camp. Althou' I stand to be corrected.
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Do understand the word "sarcasm"?
SUStat3179
post Apr 26 2013, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(hokin @ Apr 26 2013, 04:07 PM)
I was asking because you were accused earlier of betraying the DDD camp by intending to buy a property!  biggrin.gif
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Geez...this DDD and BBB camp is like BN and PR already....

just putting out an opinion supporting whatever suddenly called a traitorlah...this lah thatlah...

I feel like michelle yeoh already...biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post May 6 2013, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ May 6 2013, 09:16 AM)
BN is gov't, they have lousy management. So, housing price is going to rise some more.

Recommand you: To buy
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1 million homes is 1 million homes.

Even half of that if delivered will cause condo and apartment prices to collapse.

Better unload as soon as possible.
SUStat3179
post May 6 2013, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ May 6 2013, 09:36 AM)
GST is a political suicidal move, I highly doubted BN will implement it knowing it is the poor rural Malays that help them retain the rule.
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Next year bro. Next year.

The arse screwing will now begin since BN just got their mandate...
SUStat3179
post May 6 2013, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(axisresidence17 @ May 6 2013, 10:38 AM)
Reduced majority for BN. Dont think they dare to implement GST. Having said that I think property price will continue rising but at a slower rate.
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They will do it because they have to.

With all their extravagant promises and deficits, the gomen needs money.

This time, at least majority of the Malays can join in getting screwed instead of just us mainly chinese.
SUStat3179
post May 6 2013, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ May 6 2013, 12:40 PM)
bro, don't get to emotional-lah. The GST if it happens will affect all MALAYSIANS. icon_rolleyes.gif
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Yeah, maybe, but it is true.

At least now everyone has to pay taxes via the gst.
SUStat3179
post May 6 2013, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ May 6 2013, 11:10 AM)
Really aa bro? If u r holding good props now, dont u think u can ride on GST thing? Income tax will be reduced with substitution of GST. Inflation will go up though. Price of foods will go up too
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Well good areas will always retain their value I suppose, but don't you think we better adopt a cautious attitude towards props instead of bbb.

After election, i think plenty of surprises, some very nasty lie in store...
SUStat3179
post May 6 2013, 09:53 PM

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eh...no one is worried whether najib will unleash his 1 million homes into the market ah?
SUStat3179
post May 7 2013, 07:35 AM

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QUOTE(tigana @ May 6 2013, 10:20 PM)
Well since Selangor was not captured. He might not unleash in Selangor but in Sabah and Sarawak instead. rolleyes.gif
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I dunno. Where else can he build them except in selangor?

And he does have to be seen at least to keep his promises.
SUStat3179
post May 7 2013, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ May 7 2013, 08:38 AM)
I hope he does. Now i dont see how property prices may go down. At least for 2-3 years. Yesterday also saw KLCI and RM value surged. Bummer for those didnt take advantage. sad.gif
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Bro, you landed props okay I guess.

But think about it...even without the 1 mil homes there will be loads of private supply coming online next few years for condos and aprtments.


SUStat3179
post May 7 2013, 10:16 AM

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I think we should all be very cautious putting our money in whatever investments from now on.

Dunno how things will turn up.
SUStat3179
post May 8 2013, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ May 8 2013, 03:02 PM)
Material cost higher--> inflation-->workers demand for higher salary-->boss increase the raw materials price to offset this operation cost (material cost + salary)-->cost of building houses increase-->developer increase the housing price (although it is GST exempt supply).
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Agree most part except for workers demanding higher salary...

Our market is not so tight that bosses must give in to worker demands...

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