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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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SUStikaram
post Apr 4 2013, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(sakura888 @ Apr 4 2013, 02:25 AM)
dont you realize nobody even bothers what he says ?  laugh.gif sometimes it's easy to see which one have substance and which one is empty.
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rclxms.gif laugh.gif
prody
post Apr 4 2013, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Apr 3 2013, 08:57 PM)
Guys, a boss of mine said if opposition wins, property investment will collapse. Agree? I dont coz i think the market drives it. Government has a bit influence but mainly market
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Some things are more important than property prices. smile.gif

I have no clue about what the short term effect would be.
Long term PR winning should be better for Malaysia and thus for property prices.
stanicmail
post Apr 4 2013, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 4 2013, 11:03 AM)
Some things are more important than property prices. smile.gif

I have no clue about what the short term effect would be.
Long term PR winning should be better for Malaysia and thus for property prices.
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+1

rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

SUStikaram
post Apr 4 2013, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 4 2013, 12:03 PM)
Some things are more important than property prices. smile.gif

I have no clue about what the short term effect would be.
Long term PR winning should be better for Malaysia and thus for property prices.
*
+1 rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

up camp or down camp disagree this and that on property

but when come to politic. we all agree with this.
great2bcool
post Apr 4 2013, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Apr 4 2013, 01:56 PM)
+1 rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif

up camp or down camp disagree this and that on property

but when come to politic. we all agree with this.
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Ubah! Ini kalilah!
agentdiary
post Apr 4 2013, 01:11 PM

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agree on the bumi part.

obviously you have seen enough what happen in the low cost segment....

i am not talking abt foreigner at all. Local!

QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 07:53 AM)
Yes, but not low cost and bumi lands. And especially to foreigners.

Already to purchase low cost land you need to get consent and other red tape for local citizens, foreigners additionally need to get foreigner's consent on top of that and the props they are allowed to buy must not be less than 500k in selangor...

So no, foreigners can't just come in and scoop up low cost houses and collect rent from the locals. Imagine the stink to the state gomen of the day if that really happened and on the papers or the Internet.

Low cost are usually bumi lot houses too....it is nearly impossible.

If you say some undeclared local rich guy slipping the net I might believe you, but foreigners, no...
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agentdiary
post Apr 4 2013, 01:15 PM

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our real estate boom start since late 80' and the AFC 97 was not a burst!

asset class boom usually last 2 or 3 decades.

just share a fact here. I am not seeking your 'wisdom'



QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 07:58 AM)
You can't really compare the south sea bubble to the housing crash really.

The south sea bubble was people buying paper assets and contracts without them really knowing what they are buying. They just buy only so that could sell out later. Props are different in some ways.

For example, subang jaya which I am familiar with, even during the real dark days of 97 the prices did not drop much, in fact after the crisis is over it shot up even more.

Location is unlike stocks, it can't be reproduced. Some strategic places will retain its value because people want to stay there regardless of economic situation....
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agentdiary
post Apr 4 2013, 01:17 PM

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hard to say.

Have some experiences with PR govt in Selangor, ah..hem... same animal.

but i do bet for a change though. malaysia need stronger opp. to check/balance more effectively....


QUOTE(prody @ Apr 4 2013, 11:03 AM)
Some things are more important than property prices. smile.gif

I have no clue about what the short term effect would be.
Long term PR winning should be better for Malaysia and thus for property prices.
*
SUSworgen
post Apr 4 2013, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Apr 4 2013, 12:56 PM)
+1 rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif

up camp or down camp disagree this and that on property

but when come to politic. we all agree with this.
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tic tac, told you dun betray ddd camp. be more consistence. one hand support pr1ma, the other hand want a change. deh, what a nonsense. or u still in dilemma with 5 bijis to flip?
agentdiary
post Apr 4 2013, 02:14 PM

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Total residential loan (val) approval 2010, 2011, past 14 month: 19.5%, 13% and 12.8% (14 months combined)

since the loan growth has slowed considerably, and the question is: how to sustain the price upward movement with the shrinking demand?

anybody with the right mind will get this: the market forward is bleak and property boom could end badly.


** loan growth (or money expansion) = demand **

Please watch, just take you 7 mins.
how a boom go burst.
SUStat3179
post Apr 4 2013, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Apr 4 2013, 01:15 PM)
our real estate boom start since late 80' and the AFC 97 was not a burst!

asset class boom usually last 2 or 3 decades.

just share a fact here. I am not seeking your 'wisdom'
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"fact" indeed...if you are providing facts instead of opinions may I have the source of your assertions please.

If the AFC is not a bust, I suppose cancer is also not a life threatening disease either.

Another thing, I am not providing wisdom. I am providing my opinion.

Do try to distinguish which is which.
agentdiary
post Apr 4 2013, 02:20 PM

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AFC we have a burst in currency and stock market. So did the bond to certain extend.

Not real estate really.

QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 02:17 PM)
"fact" indeed...if you are providing facts instead of opinions may I have the source of your assertions please.

If the AFC is not a bust, I suppose cancer is also not a life threatening disease either.

Another thing, I am not providing wisdom. I am providing my opinion.

Do try to distinguish which is which.
*
SUStat3179
post Apr 4 2013, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Apr 4 2013, 02:20 PM)
AFC we have a burst in currency and stock market. So did the bond to certain extend.

Not real estate really.
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The point is, stocks and property are not the same asset class.

Both are prone to have bubbles, of course, but you cannot set up a new company and issue shares with land.

Also, people can live without buying shares, but people still need a place to stay and will strive to live in the best neighborhood possible, which is limited and unique unlike shares.

Real estate did suffer during the AFC, just not by much.

And it rebounded quickly after the crisis.

As whether there is a bubble now, well, my bones tell me it is so, but by how much, I have no idea.
Rooney1985
post Apr 4 2013, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Apr 4 2013, 08:20 AM)
I realize that too. haha.
Let him syok sendri.
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I was just trying to be polite.. and reply when spoken to. But THANKS for this valuable piece of information... will start ignoring now on biggrin.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 4 2013, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 02:17 PM)
"fact" indeed...if you are providing facts instead of opinions may I have the source of your assertions please.

If the AFC is not a bust, I suppose cancer is also not a life threatening disease either.

Another thing, I am not providing wisdom. I am providing my opinion.

Do try to distinguish which is which.
*
+1
KLsooner
post Apr 4 2013, 04:14 PM

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No property burst during AFC because

1. Impact on stock and currency is to huge that property dip was overlooked.
2. Prop price is cheap back then. 30% decline was peanut compare to second board share price (average >Rm10) dip to penny level, Repco fell from >140 to the abyss and Hwa Tai >200 to penny, stock market was one crazy place back then.
3. Khazanah was set up to sapu all NPL to prevent fire sales and lelong basically worked as a firewall to prevent the chain effect to cause more damage.

I do remember many developers were forced to sell their property with free goodies like kancil and saga. Vista commanwealth condo came with kancil if my memory served me right. Many contractors got their pay in the form of consigned property.

I cannot imagine if the same thing happen again with astronomical property price of today.

I wish history will never repeat again.

This post has been edited by KLsooner: Apr 4 2013, 04:16 PM
Jude.cst
post Apr 4 2013, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 15 2013, 05:18 PM)
Ladies & Gentlemen,
Start your engines....  thumbup.gif
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AVFAN
post Apr 4 2013, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 07:53 AM)
If you say some undeclared local rich guy slipping the net I might believe you, but foreigners, no...
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foreigners can become bums, marry bums, use bum names, etc. dun forget some lowcost units are non-bum allocated, can be sold too, and there are auctions, etc. i've been to a seminar to learn how u can buy and invest into these units, so never say never! tis is boland, remember?

i will not say more on tis, so believe wat u want, that's ok. after all, in boland, it's all about how to "go about things", isn't it?
AVFAN
post Apr 4 2013, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 4 2013, 11:03 AM)
Some things are more important than property prices. smile.gif

absolutely.

if u r true mysian, better prices (for houses and cars, at least) crash for the 95% mysians rather then upupup for the 5%.

in the unlikley event (so they say) of a pr win for putrajaya, the monopolies for land, props and car imports will be pressured. so, there shud b a price correction since the corruption, leakage, patronage and wastage will be reduced - in theory.

we'll see about that since it is the 1st time we get a shot at an alternative scenario.
QUOTE
Monopolies to suffer in the event of unlikely Pakatan win, says Maybank
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...n-says-maybank/


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 4 2013, 06:52 PM
joeblows
post Apr 4 2013, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 02:31 PM)

Also, people can live without buying shares, but people still need a place to stay and will strive to live in the best neighborhood possible, which is limited and unique unlike shares.
Everyone needs a roof over their heads, but that does not mean all kinds of property will be in demand.

There very certainly can be an oversupply of commercial prop (shoplots, offices and yes, malls too) which is already happening now.
There can also be oversupply of residential props especially for those where there are very few takers - like so-called "high-end condo" (where the only thing high end is the price and not the fittings) in non-prime areas or landed areas in the arse end of nowhere where people have to drive 1 hour + to get to KL every morning selling for megabucks.

BTW don't tell me X is only X mins from KL if you take MEX/SKVE/blablabla. It sure is only x mins, if you drive at midnight on a weekday, all the traffic lights are green, speeding along at 140+km/h, etc. Normal peak hour traffic, it will be xxx mins instead...

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