In this thread I will share trade ideas, charts, notes, and some viewpoints.

The U.S.Portfolio is a market timing portfolio designed to get profit with market trends.

The portfolio invests in companies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), leveraged ETFs, and Inverse ETFs listed on United States Stock Exchanges.

In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule:

“All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders."

I consider 5 USD per buy or sell order.
The start value of the portfolio is 35 000 USD.

For this work I will use my experience, memory, intelligence, technical indicators, some are proprietary other are familiar to all people as Relative Strength Index, MACD or Stochastic Oscillator, and some fundamental indicators.

I will try my best …

Avoid “end of race” mistakes. If things are not going well I will not put too much money in stock market. Cut my losses instead of hoping that market will come back. Not play like an addict. I will be objective. I will be an investor or a trader, whatever is considered most advantageous in a particular situation. I will control emotions, apply the reason, not repeat mistakes, and think for myself.


That´s it.

I'll start it soon.

This post has been edited by Duarte: Jun 15 2013, 08:36 PM

I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the great majority is in overbought zone.
For that reason, I'm going to wait a little longer so I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.

This post has been edited by Duarte: Mar 3 2013, 04:53 AM

Some months ago, I have done a longer-term analysis.
Now, I've done a little update.

Chart 1 - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between January 1966 and March 2013.



My guess about what is happening is that the S & P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1983.
This suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

Chart 2 - The following monthly chart shows the Price ROC indicator between January 1966 and March 2013.



The triple bottom pattern that the indicator did in 1994 was repeated between 2011 and 2012.
After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years.
This also suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

This post has been edited by Duarte: Mar 11 2013, 01:17 AM

My guess is that the S&P 500 will rise to its resistance line, close to the level of 1575.
That said, in the very short term I have doubts that the market will rise.

A few days ago, I had a problem with the computer battery charger, but its ok now.
Next week, I´ll start making trades.

Now, I am going to look again closely for the period between January 1968 and January 1985, as well as, for the period between November 1999 and March 2013.

I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.

Today, the U.S. Portfolio will start.

I´ll buy DLPH, RWT, EXH, ERX, XIV, UPRO, and EDC.

Below are the annotated charts:

The current U.S. Porfolio

U.S. Portfolio

VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV) reached my stop.

The current portfolio:

Tomorrow, I will buy again XIV (VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX)
(I will try again.)

DIREXION DAILY EMERGING MARKETS (EDC): The stop price has been reached.

Current portfolio:

I will use stop loss orders very close to the current price, while the S&P 500 index remains below 1625.

Updating of stop loss orders

Today, I´ll buy:

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: (NYSE: TMO)

Annotated chart

Portfolio:

DLPH paid a dividend of 0,17 dollars per stock in 3/13/2013.
64*0,17= 10,88
RWT paid a dividend of 0,28 dollars per stock in 3/13/2013.
125*0,28= 35
35+10,88 = 45,88
I added this amount to the portfolio.

This post has been edited by Duarte: Mar 15 2013, 03:35 AM

Current portfolio:

I've updated the buy price of ERX, UPRO, and XIV.

The opening price of ERX, on 12 March, was 64,48 USD.
The opening price of UPRO, on 12 March, was 114,45 USD.
The opering price of XIV, on 13 March, was 22,75 USD.

Note: All orders are executed at the opening price, except in the case of the stop loss orders.

This post has been edited by Duarte: Mar 15 2013, 06:23 AM

Current portfolio:

Today, I will buy more ERX and XIV, and I also will buy KRC.

KRC annotated chart:

Buy price (Average price) of XIV = ((22,75*55)+(23*54))/(55+54) = 22,93
Start date (Average date) of XIV = March 13, 2013

Buy Price (Average price) of ERX = ((64,48*43)+(67,30*22))/(43+22)=65,43
Start Date (Average Date) of ERX =March 14, 2013

Current portfolio:

Updating of stop loss orders

Despite the two negative trades, the first week of the portfolio was slightly positive.

The following stocks and ETFs reached the stop price yesterday.

Delphi Automotive Plc (DLPH),
DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX),
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 (UPRO),
VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV),
Kilroy Realty (KRC).



This post has been edited by Duarte: Mar 19 2013, 08:58 PM

Listed below are two closed trades:

Here is a portfolio update:

Things did not go well this week.
I will adjust my strategy.
I try to choose a certain strategy or another depending on how market moves, and the result obtained.

The market is still too overbought.
At some point in the future the market will come down.
However, the question remains as to when.
At this moment, I have technical indicators to point in one direction, and others to point in another direction, which means I need to be cautious.

Here is the current portfolio:



A happy Easter to everyone!

I discovered that there was a rounding problem in EXCEL sheet.

To calculate the Return I used the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Money), but to avoid the rounding problem I'm going to use the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Quantity*Buy Price).

The rounding problem has very little effect on portfolio but I have also decided to fix the previous trades.

This post has been edited by Duarte: Apr 1 2013, 08:03 AM

Here is a current portfolio update:

I realized that I get stopped out to many times.
The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.
I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me.
At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

The two paths remain open as long as the S&P 500 remains below to 1625.

If, over the next two months, the S&P 500 remains below to 1575, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 1, but if the S&P500 rises above 1625, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 2.

I will continue to evaluate on a monthly basis the possibility of happening one of the paths.

Listed below is one closed trade:

Here you can see the portfolio update:



I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.
However, this period is still one and a half months away.




This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.


These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.


(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

This post has been edited by Duarte: Apr 14 2013, 10:16 AM

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).

See annotated chart:

The following is the current portfolio:

u full time trader bro?

Nowadays, trading is my profession.

cool. mind PM me your trading skills, still a newbie on stock trading.

-Davidoff-

In general, firstly I use technical analysis and, secondly, I use fundamental analysis.
I always give more importance to the technical analysis.

I read chart trend and then I follow the trend, and I also try to identify possible reversal points.
There are several ways to read the trend - for example, with the help of trend lines, technical indicators, chart patterns, et cetera. And I use it. I also use the Dow Theory definition of a trend based on highs and lows. A stock trending up is making higher highs and higher lows.

On the fundamental analysis, I give more attention to the Cash Flow from Operating Activities.
http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-...activities-2784

Sometimes I also buy futures contracts and forex but I'll only write about stocks and ETFs in this topic.

The following is the market timer portfolio.

Below are the charts along with brief commentary.

The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500.

I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down.
At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise.
Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.
In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.
If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

good thread, please update your portfolio.

One tip for you: at the beginning you gained lots.

1.You should adjust your stop loss after you made unrealized gain. When you made unrealized gain you need to stop loss at the price you bought. Believe me if you kept disciplined with this you will get more profit.

2. may I know where did you get the 15,000 usd capital since you are a trader?

4 New Buys

Thank you for your interest.
As regards the the first point, I usually adjust the stop loss order, regardless of whether I was gaining money or losing money.
As regards the second point, I didn't really understand what you wrote.

Annotated charts:

2nd point, may I know where you got 15k as your capital? from parents? since you are full time trader

I have already worked in European multinational companies.
The initial portfolio value was 35000 dollars.

The following is the portfolio:

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order





This post has been edited by Duarte: Apr 27 2013, 12:04 AM

Annotated charts:

Listed below is one closed trade:

Current portfolio:

CURE reached the stop loss order yesterday.

1 New Buy and 1 New stop loss order

Annotated chart:

Current portfolio:

The following is the market timer portfolio:
(The chart is updated on a weekly basis.)

Below are some annotated charts:

Up until now I have adopted a prudent and defensive investment strategy, but now I´ll search a more aggressive valorization strategy opting for an increased market exposure, in order to catch the benchmark index. At the same time, however, I will take into account the 6-month unfavorable seasonality period, which begins on May 1 and ends on October 31 of the same year, and I will keep my eyes wide open to the possibility of trend reversion in the coming months.

This post has been edited by Duarte: May 6 2013, 02:51 AM

3 Buys:

The following table shows the Auxiliary calculations:

2 Buys for today:

The following is the market timer portfolio:

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for Apple Inc: (NASD: AAPL)

AAPL rallied since the stock put in a bottom in April 4, 2013. Since then, the stock already climbed 18,32%.
At the moment, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the previous high, and despite the price is still lower than the previous high, 463,53, I think this is a positive sign. Another positive sign is that the exponential moving average 10 green has just crossed with the rise the exponential moving average 50 purple, something that did not happen for a long time.

The following table shows the Auxiliary calculation:

The following is the current market timer portfolio:

2 Buys for today:

Here is the annotated chart for Nuskin Enterprises Inc: (NYSE: NUS):

The following table shows the Recently auxiliary calculation:



The following is the market timer portfolio update:
(The chart is updated on a weekly basis.)

The portfolio still remains lower than the benchmark (S&P 500), and is still far from having developed its full potential, but it is now positive. I think more in portfolio result than in trade results. I will buy, sell and adjust the weight of each security in the portfolio on a dynamic basis and over time in the light of the varying market conditions, my goals and perception.
That said, next week I will possibly make some changes.

3 New Buys:



Only some time later I will post the annotated charts and update the portfolio.

Many green possitive signal with yr ideas.. So far, it is working and behave well..

Thank you.

Monday last week, I had a computer problem. The hard disk stopped working and I took some time to recover the information. Now things are getting back to normal.

I made two modifications:
I have changed the calculation of the weighted average price to 3 decimal places. And I stopped provide an approximation of the money used for the trade and started to provide the real money used for the trade. (The money used for the trade is not used for calculating the trade gain or loss.)

The following table shows the Recently auxiliary calculations:



This post has been edited by Duarte: May 22 2013, 10:03 PM

The following table shows the Recently Closed Trades:



This post has been edited by Duarte: May 22 2013, 10:07 PM

The following table shows the Closed Trades:

The following table shows the Money from dividends:

The following table shows the portfolio:

I saw an error with the closed trades table.
The Recently closed trades table showed the quantity of 16 for UGLD, and I just typed 6. -I fixed the error.

The following table shows the Closed Trades:



This post has been edited by Duarte: May 22 2013, 11:08 PM

The following table shows the portfolio:

Perhaps, more ppls / trader / investor will go to Lowyat.NET forum under
-> Roundtable Discussions -> Finance, Business and Investment House -> Stock Exchange
and notice your USA Portfolio .. More traders/investors will give more feedback abt yr holdings.

Presently, u putting at Lowyat.NET > Classifieds > Services Noticeboard may have less attention.. Just a thought.

Hello netmask8,

Thank you.
I'm going to ask to move the thread to Stock Exchange.

This post has been edited by Duarte: May 23 2013, 02:50 AM

I will update the stop loss orders.

The following is the list of recently closed trades:



The following is the list of closed trades:



The following is the list of money from dividends:



The following is the current portfolio:

are you unemployed now? waiting to see u become billiinaoire

The consensus of technical indicators that I utilize is on the sell signal.
I will update the stop loss orders and will buy SQQQ.

I do not have a clear idea of what is the direction of the market will be.
I do not know whether I ought go long or short. So, I do both at the same time.
In a few days time, I will have a better idea of what is happening.

The following is the list of recently closed trades:



The following is the portfolio:



The following is the updating of stop loss orders:



The following is 1 buy:

yes i think we need to propose this to be moved to the finance section

No.

I proposed to move the topic to finance section, but received no response.

The following is the list of the last auxiliary calculations in the U.S.:


The following is the list of the last closed trades in the U.S.: