The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.
However, this period is still one and a half months away.




This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.


These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.


(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

This post has been edited by Duarte: Apr 14 2013, 10:16 AM

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).

See annotated chart:

The following is the current portfolio:

u full time trader bro?

Nowadays, trading is my profession.

cool. mind PM me your trading skills, still a newbie on stock trading.

-Davidoff-

In general, firstly I use technical analysis and, secondly, I use fundamental analysis.
I always give more importance to the technical analysis.

I read chart trend and then I follow the trend, and I also try to identify possible reversal points.
There are several ways to read the trend - for example, with the help of trend lines, technical indicators, chart patterns, et cetera. And I use it. I also use the Dow Theory definition of a trend based on highs and lows. A stock trending up is making higher highs and higher lows.

On the fundamental analysis, I give more attention to the Cash Flow from Operating Activities.
http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-...activities-2784

Sometimes I also buy futures contracts and forex but I'll only write about stocks and ETFs in this topic.

The following is the market timer portfolio.

Below are the charts along with brief commentary.

The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500.

I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down.
At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise.
Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.
In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.
If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

good thread, please update your portfolio.

One tip for you: at the beginning you gained lots.

1.You should adjust your stop loss after you made unrealized gain. When you made unrealized gain you need to stop loss at the price you bought. Believe me if you kept disciplined with this you will get more profit.

2. may I know where did you get the 15,000 usd capital since you are a trader?

4 New Buys

Thank you for your interest.
As regards the the first point, I usually adjust the stop loss order, regardless of whether I was gaining money or losing money.
As regards the second point, I didn't really understand what you wrote.

Annotated charts:

2nd point, may I know where you got 15k as your capital? from parents? since you are full time trader

I have already worked in European multinational companies.
The initial portfolio value was 35000 dollars.

The following is the portfolio:

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order





This post has been edited by Duarte: Apr 27 2013, 12:04 AM

Annotated charts: