Don't speculate and make conjectures without supporting data. The very least, you have some past data to make a prediction/forecast. These data and secondary data can be derived from their annual reports.

Estimated Income for 2015 (incl. other income) - RM38.5billion (assuming Q4 2015 RM7bil)
Historical Net Income % margin (net of taxes and zakat) 95%
Historical contributor reserve increases - RM65bil (2014 60bil + RM5bil)
Closing EPF contributions in 2014 - rm598bil
Closing estimated contributions in 2015 - RM598bil + RM65bil =RM663bil

Estimated EPF payout to contibutors

Net Income (net of taxes and zakat) divided by average (2015 + 2014) contributor balance

= 38.5 * 95% divided by (663+598)/2

= 36.575 divided by 630.5

= 5.8% (Dividend for 2015)

Sensitivities
- Q4 2015 actual income - huge impact
- Contribution increases - huge impact
- Net income margin - minimal impact as historical hovers between 95%-96%

This post has been edited by pearl_white: Jan 27 2016, 03:10 PM

It has been officially confirmed that 2015 dividend for EPF would be "COMMENDABLE". COMMENDABLE in light of tough economic conditions that is.

Based on previous calculations at 5.8% and + any balance of undistributed % (i.e. reserves), I would deduce that it will definately be less than 6.75% (2014) and may be more than 6.25% (2013).

I put the finger on 6.0% to be prudent. COMMENDABLE in light of tough economic conditions.

If it is really 6.4% as speculated, tho in previous calculation it is possible if they use their reserves, i would like to see the Q4 results and look for the amt. of the impairments made. Understating impairments would yield another rm1bil in profits.

if they really use up the reserves, alot of question would be raised and next years' dividend would be bad.

Selling FGV only materialises the loss now.

But in the books, provisions for investment impairments have been made in prior years.

Hence, the loss has been taken into accounts ended 2015. So, it will not affect 2017 dividend.

Based on culmulative performances of Q1 to Q3 2016 EPF results, the estimated dividend rate is < 5.5%

However, because of the strong dollar, we could see massive revaluation reserves, unrealised forex gain in the year end accounting.

So, my guess is 5% - 6% next year.

Please do some analyses rather than hope, predict, pray or benchmark others.

And what many ppl do not realise, time and time again, the newspaper reports about epf selling their london properties are meant to re-inforce the re-valuation. So do the likes of KWAP.

Gross investment income (top line only, excl. other income and incomes)
Q1 2016 = RM6.78b
Q2 2016 = RM8.44b
Q3 2016 = RM12.32b
Q4 2016 = RM10.00b (assumed)

Total gross investment income 2016 = RM37.54b

Total net profit for 2015 = RM44+b (payout 6.4%)

So, assuming 1:1 correlation, 37.54/44 * 6.4% gives 5.40% (to nearest 2 % points)

Potential upsides that will be adjusted in a/cs -

Re-valuation on properties (UK) - +RM2b
Reduction in impairments - RM1b
Forex gains - RM0.5b

it will be rm40.54b, leading to a 40.54/44 * 6.4% = 5.9%

Taking into account for other incomes and net of expenditures + Zakat, say RM1b, then you may have = 6.05%

so, the estimate will be 5.8% to 6.1% for 2016.

5.7% for 2016.

waiting for details tomorrow.

The consequences of a higher % from Islamic vs. Conventional EPF or vice versa would be a political timebomb.

Gross investment income (top line only, excl. other income and incomes)
Q1 2017 = RM11.80b
Q2 2017 = RM11.51b
Q3 2017 = RM12.95b
Q4 2017 = RM12.00b (assumed)

Total gross investment income 2017 = RM48.26b

Taking into account of potential upsides in revaluation reserves, impairments, forex gains and zakat and net profit ratios of past trends and payout,

The outcome is about 6.9% - 7.3%.

Gross revenue 2017 is definately a blockbuster since all quarters are double digits compared to prior years!

This post has been edited by pearl_white: Feb 7 2018, 01:02 PM

Looks like many are happy with the dividend declaration of 6.15%. However, many do not read the accompanying statement/press release from EPF.

Effective 1st January 2019 and the adoption of MFRS9, EPF will no longer provide for impairments to its investments. (note : if there were impairments for example, it would be recognised in the statement of comprehensive income and not the current year P/L).

The dividend rate would be much much lower if this had not been the case.

Based on info from unaudited accounts, 3.8% to 4.5%.

Layman comparison.

Gross Investment Income (RM'bil)
Q1 2018 - 12.88
Q2 2018 - 12.39
Q3 2018 - 14.61
Q4 2018 - 11.00
------------------
Total - 50.88

Gross Investment Income (RM'bil)
Q1 2019 - 9.66
Q2 2019 - 12.32
Q3 2019 - 13.50
Q4 2019 - 10.00 (est)
------------------
Total - 45.48

Note : 2019 Have to adopt MFRS 9 (impairments of investments). 2018 was not adopted.

So, off the cuff maths, (45.48 / 50.88 ) * 6.15% = 5.5%

5.5% is before MFRS 9 and also new contributors contribution to the total contributor pool to the total existing funds in EPF. This also assumes all financial ratios for its operations remain the same.



This post has been edited by pearl_white: Jan 29 2020, 04:03 PM

People just are either blind, biased or don't read properly.

1st post - based on info on unaudited accounts - 3.8% - 4.5%

2nd post - based on layman - 5.5%

Don't bother to think a little while how to from 5.5% can become 3.8% to 4.5% before typing.

Forget about any announcement this month.

Most likely in June 2020 for dividend announcement.

I do not see the relation of net surplus from investments to i-sinar since surplus is not cash available to distribute anyway.

Maybe the person who made the 5.05% should explain. The entire finance community theories/concepts of finance would have to be reviewed after with this 5.05% revelation.

Everyone who is in finance would have to go back to school to relearn everything.

This post has been edited by pearl_white: Feb 20 2021, 05:17 PM

Yes.

Sigh...Got nearly RM150k as dividends....Poor performance, Q4 2020 must be bad despite good stock market closure.

Off by RM30k

This post has been edited by pearl_white: Feb 27 2021, 12:28 PM

Based on 6.15%, I shud have rm220k dividend. But it doesn't appear yet in my 2021 statement

Are all your statements showing any dividends?

The tiered dividends would have to be above returns for FD rates, what basis for that rate depends, eg. choice of 1, 2 years effective rate. Otherwise, ppl would just pull out.

On the other hand, it must be worth noting that if EPF were to tier it, does it also mean that other types of funds would tier it eg. ASB?

And when you look at the composition of members savings, the numbers of >RM1 million are insignificant in member size and its value to total portfolio value is small.



EPF can afford and lose these members if they implement it.

The question is, can you alter your monthly contributions (employee/employer) should you chose to cap it at <RM 1million? Possible to refuse to contribute?


This post has been edited by pearl_white: Mar 3 2022, 08:43 AM