QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 28 2013, 05:01 PM)
Then it depends on how well the equipment is maintained. In reality, this can make a huge difference.
For simple illustration.
A car depreciation of 5 years, in accounting sense, 5 years obsolete, need to buy a new car to replace, but if the car is maintained well and still running well after 6,7 or 9 years, then on those year company is running without need a capex, without depreciation charge that reduce the profit figure.
Imagine this apply on multi-millions machinery and equipment.
This can be the huge difference of a well managed company vs a poor managed company.
In your example, assuming there are no other major activities, from year 6 onwards there is no huge difference between earning and free cash flow. Which is what Pink Spider said, "... cash flow and accounting earning even out over time."
Dividend payout can be over 100% between year 2 and year 5, but it can't be forever...
= = =
Let's describe this in a simple, perfect example:
- A company's EBITDA is 500k year after year
- in year 1, it has a capex of 500k, depreciated over 5 years
- no tax, interests etc
- no other major investing and financing activities
Y1 - earning 400k, cash flow 0
Y2 - earning 400k, cash flow 500k
Y3 - earning 400k, cash flow 500k
Y4 - earning 400k, cash flow 500k
Y5 - earning 400k, cash flow 500k
Y6 - earning 500k, cash flow 500k
From Y2 to Y5, cash flow is more than earning, so payout ratio of over 100% is possible. Still, if it is 174%, I will be skeptical.
Y6 onward, payout ratio cannot be over 100%.
This post has been edited by river.sand: Mar 1 2013, 08:35 AM