twhong_91

I wonder if you will see this message.

I think I check out of the OTHER thread.

Why?

Got Forum class monitors.
Got ISA post removals.
Got class monitors who declared people who post there having half a brain only. 

Why? Why? Tell me why... 

Anyway, on your AirAsia.
I maybe wrong but I think there is more risk if you declare that it's a good time to enter now...
I know there's no forever bull or forever bear in the stock market.
In that sense, AirAsia can't be forever flying down, can it?
But in a bull market, why focus on a badly hit bear stock?
Why not find another better condition stock?
Just suggestion la....

Anyway...



That's the current chart as of this morning.
Drawing the recent 'lowest' line of 244, at 2.53, I can understand somewhat your reasoning.
For example, at 253, you are not that far out from the presumed support of 244.
(Yes, last time AirAsia bounced of 244 but will it, this time around?)
And clearly, one could see the many recent red candles and judging from the sell downs, one can easily assumed that if one plucks in all the what nots indicators, one can safely say AirAsia is deeply oversold.

Yes, it's oversold but ... just remember not all oversold stocks will bounce right back up.
Oversold and overbought can go extremes many a times.

What's the likely catalyst to get AirAsia out of this rot?
Q earnings, I reckon.

But the Q reckons, as mentioned before, my guess is that it's gonna be bad.
One of the main reason, is the upcoming Q will cover AirAsia period where USD hit 330+
This should do some serious damage to its forex issue.

However, as I also mentioned b4, many a times, market is forward looking.
In that sense, I believed the forex losses should probably be discounted.

And right now, the focus is on where USD/MYR is heading.
Now... that is an IFFY...
At one time last week, it looked poised to walk car at 320.
Then came Yellen....

All in, it's a big uncertainty.
In that sense, perhaps, it's better to wait and see.
My 3 sen worth of talk 3 talk 4.

Posted the zoom out view of AirAsia on Saturday. (do scroll back few pages)..



What can I say....
Isn't this chart scary?
I could be wrong but it looks to me like the momentum going down is gathering steam.... 

Bought more INTP @ 18,500

PE 13x, PBV 2x, DY 2%, Growth 15% yoY, very good FCF, net cash @3000/share

BIMB... sorry no monitor.. at a glance PE 16x... other banks selling at PE 9x-12x only.. 

PE = price/earnings.. example EPS RM 0.1/year, price is RM 1 then PE = 0.1/1 = 10x

he everyday write buying buying buying... 

wonder if it is real? 

Really no problem meh?

I cannot wor... or they block overseas trading.. 

I play some numbers for you Ah Loo.

Say AhBoon got 2000.00.
He bets on a trade.
The stock trades at say 20 sen.
he buys 2000 worth of that stock trading at 20 sen.
He trades as what he see and he waits patiently despite the stock going up and up.
Not switching stocks at all.
Yes, he don't greedy.
As long as this stock is his girl, any other girl pass, he only sees but no gatal.

ok, so far?

Stock now say 30 sen.
That's a 50% profit.
How much he makes?
1000.00

For 2 months, not bad ma...

Now compare... this girl... Lulu... (joking a bit la... no poke no fun )

Now Lulu sees a guy..
She dates him...
but as long as she sees a more or less better one...
she jump ships...
However, no she won't do TWO at one time..
she no two ship with one leg
she sticks to one ship at one time...
but she just jumps whenever she wants....

It's like stock trading...
She trades one stock at a time..
but she jumps and switches stocks all the time...
So she makes about 5% profit per trade of 2000.00

5% of 2000 = 100

To make the equivalent of AhBoon, she will need to make 10 consecutive winning trades of 5%.
That's assuming she trades 2000 per trade lor....
(easy la.. I know.. if she throws all her winnings and compounds her winnings, that's a different counting already)

So compare...

which is achievable and even less risky?

Get one winning trade of 50% or making 10 consecutive winning trades of 5%?
Can we even get 10 consecutive trades within 2 months?
Sometimes, on the third trade...
the stock trade sideways... ie no jalan kereta.. for longer than expected... maybe 3 weeks...
then how? can still make 10 in a row? 
Oh wait....

Got see?

Did you just see that the limited bullet of 2000, manage to gain 1000 in 2 months?

hehe...

I think it makes no difference.
Bullets are bullets.
Limited or unlimited no difference one la...

It doesn't mean that if I have unlimited bullet, I would simply tembak here little bit, there little bit.
I would be foolish to do so.
I think I would rather concentrate my bullet on a target and aim properly.

That's my thinking - which I understan, you will might not accept.
It's ok one...
We are all different.

ps: I like your style of picking stocks such as Uli
which is kind of good...
same kind of thinking as your past stocks...
Good for you la...
you are making progress...

ps: Paper trade la...
don't rush...
you still have plenty of world waiting for you one...
Paper trade it very well...
I tell you la...
5 years time...
you be very good. 

Try not too see to much.

You want the chart to tell you the story...
and not you telling the chart what will happen next.

right now, it's in a simple range trade between 52 and 55+- ...

That's about it...
some buying interest can be seen via the improved volume....

That's all...

In a range trade...
Best thing to do is wait for the stock to show you which direction it wants to go....
why?
when a stock breaks out of a range...
it doesn't mean the stock will only break up...
it could also break down.....