QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 13 2014, 10:40 AM)
So... you interested? Bursa Traders Thread V2, waaa! V2 d !
Bursa Traders Thread V2, waaa! V2 d !
|
|
Feb 13 2014, 10:40 AM
Return to original view | Post
#901
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 10:03 AM
Return to original view | Post
#902
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 13 2014, 08:30 PM) Got time now... Ya further checking shows almost limited growth. Only their ethyl glycol & acetic division is showing some growth. Thier natural brew vinegar division is the star of the company. (Similar to 3A resources)You talking Hexza is it? I was just looking at the back prices.... In 2010, just before the stock went ex for its dividends, Hexza was trading at 685. Today it closed at 65. So a long term investor only gain dividends, which I think is not too bad. Lazy to count leh... please feel free to add in how much.... Is this enough? Cukup ka? For holding a stock so long? I know.. some would say yes... Some greedy people like me... might say no. Anyway so why isn't the stock performing? I think is earnings is poor and very small. Kacang putih earnings... This is the past earnings. FY2010 - 15.8 m FY2011 - 12.1 m FY2012 - 6.1 m FY2013 - 8.45 m FY2014 - 1 quarter - 1.020 Trailing - 8.8 FY 2013, showed some turnaround but as you can see its very small. Very not exciting, in my opinion, this is why the stock has not gone anywhere at all this few years... (you also can see the stock drifted sideways and lower after its last dividend end Nov) Can this situation change? Value plays... err ..... you know la me.... I somehow not a keen pure value player. I want to see the earnings growth... So for Hexza fortunes to reverse, I want to see the earnings growth. Yes, last quarter earnings improved a lot (over 50+%) but the numbers used was so small. Earnings improved from 672k to 1.02 m. Too small numbers comparison, so I won't go gung ho over the 'improvement'.... If I want to trade this one... I want to see volume increase.... I want to see earnings improve... Else, it's a no go for me. My 3 sen leh... Formaldehyde and glue sector not doing well due to overall furniture industry weakness. They have lost one of their biggest client in Sarawak recently. However if furniture and wood products sales picks up then they might have growth. Their alcohol division is doing badly as there is a lot of smuggling. Smuggled alcohol is selling below the excise tax which hexza is paying... Property division is sleeping peacefully... Most of their raw materials is priced in USD and sales mostly in RM... not a good picture. |
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 10:05 AM
Return to original view | Post
#903
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 10:15 AM
Return to original view | Post
#904
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 14 2014, 10:12 AM) Wait for the upcoming quarter result lor... Haha... lets see of the next results shows positive or not... If good... then chase the bloody chicken lor... (pay la 5% to 10% higher also ok la... treat as insurance) If no good... you save the time and trouble... and frustration... hehe... Then you come back in Aug.... and fish for the dividend movement play.... Can ah? |
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 10:29 AM
Return to original view | Post
#905
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 10:31 AM
Return to original view | Post
#906
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 10:39 AM
Return to original view | Post
#907
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 14 2014, 10:35 AM) Yeah... I do understand that for this one... Yeah they have high depreciation... low (almost non existent) capex. Thier FCF is actually 2x thier EPS... the value case... 'might' tip the stock over.... the money 'hidden' by the depreciation charges ... is making the cash pile grow bigger each year... So for value players... they be asking... 'How long can the cash pile go un-noticed? Of course - the risk is that the owners can simply splash the money away. This post has been edited by gark: Feb 14 2014, 10:39 AM |
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 12:22 PM
Return to original view | Post
#908
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 12:26 PM
Return to original view | Post
#909
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 12:27 PM
Return to original view | Post
#910
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 12:54 PM
Return to original view | Post
#911
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
Ok 9326
Company manufacturers aluminum extrusions, anodizing and powder coating of aluminum. Steady growing revenue business, but profit has been spotty, but got some improvement in profit from 2011-2013. profit have high reliance of raw aluminum ingot price as it is a feedstock for the company. To understand this we have to look at aluminum prices as the graph below. The steady rise in profit from 2011 is primary due to reduction of aluminum price since the peak at 2011. ![]() However spot price for aluminum has been steadily rising at early February from 72 cent/lb to 76 cent/lb, but still a 40% below the peak of $1.25/lb. If the aluminum price continues on its price reducing trajectory then it will benefit 9326. However all aluminum prices are transacted in USD in which it depends if the company can pass on the differences due to the recent devaluation of the currency. Sales are primary in Malaysia ( 75%) & Singapore ( 20%) while 100% of raw materials are priced in USD. Most of the sales are towards property construction companies and depend heavily on the property demand. For the financials, the company is healthy, with some cash and some loan, however the company is not a net cash company. The PE ratio is more or less fair at 8x, unless the company can show further growth, then the PE ratio will be around there. The current weakness in the share price is due to no dividends, hence a risk for holding the company long term having no income while waiting for the price to appreciate. Gross and net margins of 6% and 5% is not particularly attractive signifying the company does not have good pricing power for it's products probably due to high competition. Free cash flow is also ok at 1:1 ratio to EPS, which is fair. EV/Ebitda of the company is also around 8x which is also fair. I would rate the company prospects as slightly undervalue, but the share price will be slow moving and highly reliant on the international aluminum prices. If there is a continuous fall in aluminum prices and continuous demand for property, I believe the earning margins of this company can improve significantly, also if the company decide to pay a decent dividend which it is capable of from the healthy free cash flows. But the opposite is also true, so it is a risk to be seen. This post has been edited by gark: Feb 14 2014, 12:56 PM |
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 01:26 PM
Return to original view | Post
#912
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
QUOTE(kingkong1 @ Feb 14 2014, 01:21 PM) I am amased... you can come out with this within < 30 minutes. Too much practice... BTW, where you get the research besides the financial data? Read the Q report, annual report, analyst report, 5 years financial, look at the graph, read the website etc etc... This post has been edited by gark: Feb 14 2014, 01:27 PM |
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 01:36 PM
Return to original view | Post
#913
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 02:47 PM
Return to original view | Post
#914
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 03:06 PM
Return to original view | Post
#915
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
Short review of GUH...
GUH have several business such as electrical assembly, housing development, plantation, waste water treatment and electrical generation. The biggest is electrical generation which contribute about 30% of profits but at a very thin margin of <5%. Next 30% profits comes from property which have a very good margin of 30%. Plantation and water treatment contributes only about 8% profit. The rest is from the electrical generation at Cambodia, which IPP will expire in a few years time. Generally the profit is on a steady decline primary due to steady margin erosion from the electronics business. The profit decline is partly offset by the 520 acres property development in Taman Kepayang heights, Seremban. However the property is already mature and not much space left for development and will finish in a few years time. For the balance sheet, this is the gem for GUH as they are holding net cash of 65 cents/share and currently selling for PE 8x. Ev/Ebitda is about 4x so it is a good value share. Free cash flow is moderate at about 1x EPS. Dividend is consistent at about 4% per year. For now GUH remains a good value share with good net cash holding, and should be selling at Ev/ebitda of at least 8x, which translate to about 1.30-1.50 per share. However with the outlook in the future is not so bright because of the expiring IPP in cambodia in 2015 will reduce net income by 20%. Also the property division is approaching fully developed status. Due to the two expiring profit stream, the high cash holding in Guh will likely be plowed back into investment in future Cambodia IPP and more freehold land for property division and not likely to be distributed to shareholders. This post has been edited by gark: Feb 14 2014, 04:38 PM |
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 03:59 PM
Return to original view | Post
#916
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
homer back to life jor...
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 04:28 PM
Return to original view | Post
#917
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 04:29 PM
Return to original view | Post
#918
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 04:30 PM
Return to original view | Post
#919
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
|
|
|
Feb 14 2014, 04:41 PM
Return to original view | Post
#920
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
CBIP analyst report today....
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « QUOTE CBIP continues to establish itself as one of the leading palm oil mill producers in the region, as evidenced by its orderbook strength and expanding customer base in various geographical locations. We tweak our forecasts slightly after our recent corporate luncheon with management, but maintain our SOP-based FV of MYR3.89 and our BUY recommendation. Highlights from our recent corporate luncheon with CBIP: i) rising orderbook trend, ii) it is benefiting from the weakening MYR, iii) its test mill for zero discharge products is to be completed in April/May 2014, iv) the special purpose vehicles (SPV) division is providing recurring income, v) its plantation operations are growing gradually, and vi) capex requirements are rising. Tweaking forecasts downwards. We shave our forecasts by 2.2/0.6% for FY13/14, after adjusting our capex assumptions. We highlight that our forecasts are fairly conservative, as we have only projected CBIP to grow its oil mill engineering revenue by 5-10% per year vs management’s target of 15-25% from FY14 onwards. Maintain BUY. As our FY14 forecasts are relatively unchanged, our SOP-based target price is maintained at MYR3.89, based on an unchanged 9x CY14 P/E for its plantation division and 11x CY14 target P/E for its oil mill engineering division. We continue to like CBIP, as it is a proxy to the plantation sector, but is shielded from CPO price volatility. Even in times of low CPO prices, plantation companies, particularly the larger ones that CBIP deals with, will continue with their capital expenditure on new mills in preparation for the upcoming maturity of their plantation estates – this will drive CBIP’s short-term earnings growth. Going forward, we believe its new zero discharge mill and its recently proposed acquisition of the Vickers Hoskins boiler factory will help expand its market reach further, to ensure medium-term growth. Over the long term, CBIP’s plantation operations in Indonesia will start contributing more significantly from FY17 onwards, which will provide it with another leg of growth. Despite its attractive prospects, CBIP’s valuations continue to be undemanding at 10-11x P/Es for FY14-15. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock. |
|
Topic ClosedOptions
|
| Change to: | 0.0454sec
0.55
7 queries
GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 7th December 2025 - 09:47 AM |