Multiple Moving Averages by Daryll Guppy. I kinda like his method. Simple for trend following.
But of course, profitable or not ......

should be around RM1.2

To know it's profitable or not, you backtest whatever system you like to use....

Personally, there are no holy grail for trading. It all comes down to your own system, how you manage your trade. WHERE do you want to enter the trade? WHEN do you want to enter? How much you willing to risk? How much profits would you expect, given the risk taken?

I kept trading journal to find out which methods give me the best winning rates.....and stick to it.


Anyway, here's MUHIBAH with MMA (I hope I select the correct indicator )


MUHIBAH daily

What's your strategy?

This post has been edited by ciahcra: May 27 2013, 10:50 AM

Can you give more details on this 'back test', please? At least based on your experience. I've invested in
Metastock software to learn a things or two. Did try to backtest using the software, but the period of backtest,
will bring different results. I mean, during downtrend, naturally my method don't work. I don't short as I've limited capital.
During uptrend, I guess who need TA during the crazy bull run a few weeks ago. Just 'tikam' and you 'kena' I'm quite sceptical about SnR
as well, because for I'm no expert, I noticed those that are expert will play around with SnR to shakeout the weak players.
Usually I do set certain threshold for my cut loss and if the chart don't look nice by going down cutting through the Multiple
Moving Averages, I'm out.

Not sure of your opinion but just my reading my post, I'm definitely a novice in this field.

My strategy after my eyeball scanning would be, to enter when there's a rebound from the Long Term MA. But
the three black candles, RSI and Stoch readings pointing downwards as shown in my End of Day data seems
to tell me the chart is not bullish. Hence, I did not select this stock.

I hope to publish my chart too, but not well verse in the uploading of image. Need to open other account and .....

This post has been edited by Kcee: May 27 2013, 11:06 AM

Back testing.
No two persons trades exactly the same.
What works for A, might not work for B.
So when you back test, the back test has to be a discovery process that helps you discover the system that works 'best' for you, ie the system that produces the best average result for you.

And yes, it is very important to note that your 'best' system might not work all the time.

Confusing?
If it is the best, why doesn't it work all the time?
That's because a system that produces good results during an uptrend/bullish phase, might not work as well during a downtrend/consoildation phase.

This morning I entered Eastland because:
1)The short term MMA seems to be separating from the long term MMA
2)RSI and Stoch readings not overbought. Seems to be going up.
3)Chart seems to be making higher low and higher high though very slow.
4)MACD histogram seems to be turning positive soon.


And most of the times, I only entered at a higher price because it's a sign of strength. Though
seeing it going down after purchasing is....erm.....

Any comments?

This post has been edited by Kcee: May 27 2013, 11:13 AM

Try use flickr.

It is good and free.

the stock itself won't move if someone don't participate to the game...

indicator is just tool ... without big sharks/retailer/fund participation ... it won't work at all... because the price will be stagnant there...

this is what i learnt...

I think there's a saying... you need to master all indicators till you find they are all useless.

Thanks! Appreciate ur review... Thheavy look interesting!

I took 10 years data, choose set of rules I want to test, then do paper trade on that...

you can choose whatever set of rules you want to test.

For example:

you want to use MA cross over (i.e. shorter period MA cross over longer period MA)

You pick whatever range you want to test (maybe 14 days MA with 50 days MA for example)....

Then go down 10 years back, and start to look for those cross over. each time you see one, decides whether to take the trade or not, then record it. If it's a successful trade, record it as a winning trade, and vice versa. Records also how much you win/lose each trade


Let say I do 10 trades, I jotted down winning trades and losing trades, then calculate the percentage of win trades

Then I jotted down the total winning amount, and find the average winning amount (in term of Ringgit) per trade and average losing amount per trade.

After 10 trades, analyse your data. see whether the method you choose give you high percentage of winning or not. My predefined value is 40%. which means, if I want to use the system (set of rules that I want to use), I have to make sure the system can gives me at least 40% of winning trades

see whether your winning amount per trade is high or not. Avg winning amount / Avg losing amount is your Reward to Risk Ratio (RRR). I set mine to 2:1. meaning for every Ringgit i risk, I make RM2. If the system gives me more than 40% winning rates, but RRR is less than 2:1, I'll ditch the system as well.....

By making trading journal, you will know which system works in which market.


Seriously, trading is exhausting.....

And if I have the perfect system, I'd probably have George Soros phone number in my contact list already

This post has been edited by ciahcra: May 27 2013, 11:51 AM

EASTLND daily

And if it doesn't goes up, where do you plan to exit? and if the price still doesn't shoot up, how long you plan to hold on this counter? you need to define all that before you enter the trade. Unless this is an undervalue stock, and you tend to buy and hold, then timeframe doesn't really matter I guess.

Anyway, for Malaysia stocks market, VOLUME is one of the most important element to me.

Average daily vol for this counter is about 200k to 250k a day? how much you expect to buy? for trading purpose, you need higher vol to make it easy for you to get out. I don't know about this counter anyway, so maybe in the next 2-3 days the vol will spike....

This post has been edited by ciahcra: May 27 2013, 11:45 AM

indicators are useful when in a big participation...

hard to catch the psychology of the participants...

but in Malaysia..

Erm, my plan is the holding period of 1 week to 1 month.
Yes, volume is important. I agree. But when volume is peaking, I assume
the smart money is getting out either. The last I profit from small cap counters
are counters like KOMARK and HYTEX using this method.

I 'cabut' after 10-20% profit and bought roughly like same time like this counter.
When it's rather quiet. The counters continued to climb actually but I can only
console my self by saying 'Don't be greedy'

Oh, and because the last few weeks are times of 'crazy bulls', naturally, I don't think
it's my analysis that helped me. 'The bull' did

This post has been edited by Kcee: May 27 2013, 12:08 PM

I don't know about this counter, so I cant really comment much, but if you said you make money using the same method, then maybe you might hit it again this time. Record down your trades, that's the only way to see whether the system you choose works or not....

Yeah sometimes stock can move up without having much vol....but the question is, which one to pick?

This post has been edited by ciahcra: May 27 2013, 11:59 AM

My best system gives me 60% only....only 10% higher than 'gambling'

This post has been edited by ciahcra: May 27 2013, 12:11 PM

60% is good to make money, money money already.

everyone busy trading?

AhPek trader very free.