Hoiiii !!!!!

I don't curse one.

I am innocent.
I cannot do no vodoo.

Just a suggestion on how to learn from a poor trade.

Don't la macam ni...

So got new tipsy or not?

Err...

So you are saying that you will wait for 45 to buy?

Well at this point there is no correct or wrong..... yet.
Events haven't unfold yet.

But here is my thinking.
For it to go back down to 45 sen, this means weakness.
ie if you put everything back into context, since that big fall, the movement of the stock is weak.
For the stock to fall back to the 45 sen it would meant that the buying interest in the stock is weak.
The big chefs in the stock doesn't seem motivated to push the stock up at all.
If that's the case why buy at the 45 sen support?

On one hand, by definition, one might see the support but on the other hand, there is also no written guarantee that the stock will move back up after hitting the support.

This one ... I say no.

The strong hand is staying away from the stock right now.
Stock looks mighty weak.

Anway, what's your perceived fair value of the stock at this moment?

Actually what I meant to say...

if you buy at 15..
how high you think this stock can go go go?

I actually don't like to buy on weakness.

Say if it hits 15...
Is it a must that the stock rebounds once it hit 15?

What if the stock continues to show more weakness?

This is why waiting is so important.

Rushing to buy a stock at 'supports' isn't a reliable strategy.
Sharks, if they are in control, they know very well where the supports and resistance levels are.
And they are crafty enough to make meals for themselves by setting up traps at these levels.

I smell a trap.

Nice rounded bottom and it does look like it might attempt to stage a break from its recent downtrend.
But I think it's too early days now.
I would probably wait and see first.

As you know, the weakness in the stock stems from its really poor earnings performance.
To breakout, I reckon that the earnings recovery has to be there.

The rounded bottom looks a bit like AA.
But if you would compare it to AA, there's a slight bit more positive factor in AA.
Ok, the coming quarter for AA should be poor but that should be discounted by the market already (unless the market thinks it wants to be disappointed by the poor earnings again. ).
Since the market is a forward discounting machine (as practised by many... ( wonder if anyone wants to argue on this)) , with the recent strengthening in ringgit vs the dollar, the market might factor this as a forward positive factor for the stock, which is why there is strentgh in the stock.

However, in Ben's case...
nothing clear and in fact the recent removal of some directors in the company only serves as more unknown factors in the stock.

*****

Taking profit is ok but it should be taken correctly.
Do not, for one bad experience, embark on a wild taking profit just for taking profit sake.
Trading it correctly is more important.

Selling is just as hard as buying.

You need to learn to know when to sell for a profit correctly.
And you need to learn when to sell when you screw up on a purchase.

Of course, buying correctly does help significantly.

Let's use simple maths.

If you trade often, speculatives and fa all counted...
What's your trade winning percentage now?
50%?
60%?

If every trade, say you have a 60% winning % (which is damn good, pro status liao), and for every trade you win, you win at 5%.

You make 10 trades, each valued at 10k.
You win 60%.
So you win 6 trades.

Each trade you make 5%.
For every 10k trade, you will make 500..
So you make 3k

40% losses.
At how much do you cut loss?
Can you do it at 10%?
Which means every losing trade you make 1k losses.
Out of 10 trade, you lose 4.
So you will lose 4k.

End result?

Total losses will be 1k.

Conclusion?
Losses must be kept at minimum.
Profits must be big.

Simple maths.



This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 23 2013, 08:49 PM

Also in another news, for those who miss out ...

I was reading this posting on HB Global.
This posting only solidifies why I feel that China Stocks are pure LAP the SAP.




http://cgmalaysia.blogspot.com/

Points:

1. Cash.
Last time around, HB Global kena 'big pan' when their auditor said cannot verify the cash balances at its subsidiaries.
New auditor said no problem.
Can verif jor!
But look at the new cash balances shown in the first picture.
From 431 million RMB last year, cash balance now only left 68 million RMB cash.
How can cash shrink so fast in one year?
Money fly why?


Those who keep insisting on cash per share yardstick for China Ah Lian ( They say on TV Ah Moi don't have. Got Ah Lian. )

2. New auditor also said that property, plant and equipment value needs to be impaired. LOL!
An impairment of 61 million RMB !!!
OMG!!!!

Actually I feel the new auditor, BOD, should state why the impairment is needed !!!!!
Was there an overstatement earlier?
Did the property or plants even exist?

Want to use Net ASSet for China Ah Lians?

Better think twice!

3. And then new auditor cannot take stock inventory count.... OMG !!!!!

( posted this wrongly in the wrong thread a few seconds earlier.... )

New auditor is BDO.

Apparently HB Global mentioned in one small print that "In view of the findings by BDO, the management is seeking legal advice with the legal counsel on appropriate action to be taken against the previous auditor."



I nearly died laughing!

If you noticed it's quite regular that China Ah Lians change their CFOs like changing underwears.

There are 3 variables here.

Your trading win/lose percentage.
Your winning margin.
Your losing margin.

Adjust all three variables and ownself play play.
You will be surprised that you can actually survive and win big money even with a 30% winning as long as you have a healthy winning margin and you keep your losses small.
And no matter how you adjust, almost always... losses must be kept at a minimal.

Ahh... this thing I will tell you...

It's really not easy to win 9 out 10.



For many, although they will not admit it, winning 5 out 10 is also difficult.

And yes, I would agree with you, it's very important to bet on stocks that favours the better.
For me, the upside potential has got to be there.
The stock must stand a good chance to be a one or two bagger.
Those with 10% or 20% upside potential, usually I pass.
Not worth my time.

The ability to say PASS (ie no bet) when you are dealt a hand, is important.

Take the GP case now.

It's quite simple really.

You don't have to place the bet.

You don't like what you see just say I PASS.

Teach broken ah?