If boss tak nak kongsi..........

Errr.... I do not want to guess.

I think I learn is....
stocks can go extremely over one....

when they are overbought, sometimes they can be way over bought.
and when they are oversold, sometimes they can be way over sold.

So I tend not to be a hero trying to guess how oversold a stock is.....

Anyway, what is happening to Ah Lian is not new.
As mentioned the other morning...
when a stock breaks down before an earnings, it's usually not a good sign.

And most important, for Ah Lian...
I am not that keen on its business modal right now.
Especially when its business modal is based on fake jewellery.
I feel there's a limit to the business growth.
And Ah Lian has had that incredible business growth already.

Nowadays, look at the real gold jewellery itself.
Business isn't really bang bang sound so geng, is it?
So if real stuff not as geng, what then about the fake stuff?

This one... kiss-ed and goodbye already.

Made good money already.
Don't think I need to be a hero in trying to make money in it again....

Give it a year laaaa....

yaya... bukan stock tarak cikek.

Me?

I always like to cit kek.

Cheese cakes especially.

Blueberry my favorite.

Yawn... next week trading should probably be 'more' cikek.

The not so strong ringgit might make some go uneasy.

Actually I was just about thinking about that one too...



Maybe when not too lazy...
I go take a look.

Still no makan yet....

This one... no need to look yet.

Wait till the first day it closes green, then only look.

This has always been the trend.

And oh... next weak and the next ... 'should' be good time to start fishing.

Walaoehhhh!!!

Drop every few sen ... you want to reload meh?

Still got enough shares for you to start a takeover bid?

Hehe... tomorrow I make sure I have ground nuts to munch.


As far as I can remember..
And hopefully no remember wrong..
most cases like this (where a stock main biz is sold off) ...
most of the time ...
the shareholders did ok.



But then...
you should know...
sometimes...
shit happens.

next week no market meh?

CMMT reit earnings also down?

This is a trend, ah?

Their properties cannot be re-valued higher anymore? hehe...

TA comments are extremely subjective.

Most of the time, it also depends on what kind of player (trader/investor/speculator/punter) the person is...

For what it's worth.... (please note I could always be wrong)



That was the first thing I saw when I opened my trading platform (KenMoney).

Not looking good was my initial impression.

Long candle down.
Much, much heavier traded volume.

Two of the most unwanted signals in a stock.

Looking closer, the stock had a nightmare trading recently.
After opening a small gap higher on the 8th Jan, the stock is clearly retreating.

And the sell of yesterday, clearly exacerbated things....

Zooming out to a 12 month time frame, we have this...



We need to zoom out cos from the first chart..
we do not know where the stock had been...
or where the stock could end up next....

So where's next?
Typically, my guess would have been maybe 90 sen or 86 sen.
But given yesterday actions....
where the stock gap-ed down, ended down on heavy volume, all guesses are off.

Why?

It's a sell off.
The very first day.
And the momentum of the sell off could take the stock much lower.

And I am ONE WHO FINDS IT VERY PROFITABLE NOT TO GUESS HOW LOW OR HOW HIGH A STOCK COULD GO,
would not one to be guessing....

And zooming the chart further out...



As can seen, Pantech had clearly been a success for long term traders/investors.
And most, would have known, that one of the main reason was the stellar turnaround in earnings.
FY2011 was a disaster for the stock.
But since then, the turnaround was impressive.
Markets love turnaround/growth stories...

So what happened yesterday?
What as the reason for the sell off?

So perhaps it's the poor market sentiments of late....
But we do need to find out what happened...

Yes, we might not know the exact reason..
but more often that not...
we should be able to find a reason to justify ourselves...

As most would have known..
the sell off was due to the much lower than expected earnings..
In fact, one probably would have called it a disaster.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-earnings-slip/

Earnings was down 22.5%.

Price targets were lowered instantly.

Kenanga lowered its TP from 1.28 to 1.07.

One thing I know is when a growth stock, suffers a huge decline in its earnings, sharp stock price declines usually follows....

And this is what happened.
That would have been my guess.

Would I want to bottom fish?

NO.

This is something like Zhulian.
Although I would be less pessimistic for Pantech.
For Pantech has a clearly much better business model than Zhulian.

But a decline is a decline.
And for a growth stock showing decline in earnings...
I would rather wait.

I would rather pay the price for being cautious and if the bloody ayam wants to run, let it run... LOL!
I would rather wait for the next set of quarterly earnings....

Or if there is a positive set of new development..
Or if there is a positive set of development in the chart...

Last thing I would want to do, is to guess where and when is the time to bottom fish for this stock.

My long 3 sen worth.....


yeah.. I could always be wrong ....

What? What? What?

If you not around...
then how?

Market die la....





If no time for market..
Got time for reading?

Is this a good read?

Chou san.

Errr... I am not that optimistic about this one.

My last memory of this one last year was it was trading around 6.80 or so.
Now is at what? 11++?

So my feeling is that a lot of the so-called good news for the stock (bad bloody news for us, the rakyat. ) has already been priced in.

So for a 2 year perspective, really not that keen.
The whole biz structure is still so messed up as far as I am concerned.

What you are feeling now is normal la...
The fed meeting on the nuisance taper nonsense is on early Feb.
Our market is on holiday mood.
You see, our Gark is almost sau kong liao...

A lot of traders want their CNY money...
They want their pok sat money ready for the gambling sessions (which have already started.. )
So market is like that.

Shitty and unexciting.

( Actually I think is a good time to fish. )

So if were you...

hehe...

from a trading perspective... go look for stocks that are just newly played... and now just consolidating...
these are the ones who might shake shake when the action starts...

for longer trading/investing perspective...
look for stocks with new growth trends (preferably under 1 year)..

me?
I don't like to invest, just for the sake of calling it an investment.
I want to invest only when I feel that there's a strong catalyst that will take the stock higher for the next year or so.....

my 3 sen la...

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 24 2014, 10:04 AM

LOL!

Come to think of it...
Old newspaper/paper/magazines are good money nowadays.
40 sen per kilo ah?

CIMB now bouncing green this morning...
Starting a fight back point?

Was looking all morning...

Dunno if motivated enough to masuk only.

At this price, valuation wise... how?