Chef:

Do you believe stocks are distributed on the way up?
Or do you believe stocks are distributed on the way down?

I believe they tend to be distributed on the way bottom. It's much easier to dispose the shares on the way down.

Think this imaginary scenario.
There is this Big Bum shares.
People think it could be worth 5 bucks.
It went from 3 bucks to 6 bucks.
However, the higher it goes, there were few takers.
Big Bum then hit 10 bucks.
Then it slowly go to 14 bucks.
One day Big Bum is suddenly sold down.
Suddenly people started talking about value when Big Bum is falling to 8 bucks.
Buyers that were afraid to buy at 6 bucks, suddenly came out and decided that 8 bucks is a good price to buy because Big Bum traded as high as 14 recently.
Yes, buyers who were afraid to buy the stock which was going up, suddenly is willing to buy the stock when the stock is falling.
Human nature, yes?
And because many are willing to buy the falling stock, selling becomes easier.

Do you think this is possible?

It's harder to distribute on the way up.
Malaysia is no different.
It's human nature.
When stock goes up, stock chasers are few.
Look around this forum.
How many are chasers? How many are breakout players?
Now compare it to bottom fishing.
The minute a popular stock is thrown down, ppl who have never played the stock before, would want to buy.
All they see is current price versus the price the stock it fall from.
The higher the fall, the more seductive it becomes.
And buyers shows up more.

ciahcra: Nice!

You should have posted this earlier.

Looks like you are a big player since you are using Bursa Station

Nothing much to say so diam sikit.

Weii, you got buy share one or not?

Cheapskate fella like me cannot use mah.

So have to stick with all the free platforms.

Taikor Chef angry liao.

Dec CPO futures plunge 5% on profit taking, after export tax cuts
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Ho Ching-Ling of www.theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 12 October 2012 18:26
A + / A - / Reset

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 12): Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures contracts reversed its three-day uptrend, plunging as much as 5.7% today (Friday) from profit-taking after the government announced it will cut CPO export taxes from Jan 1, 2013.

At closing, December CPO contracts managed to cut earlier losses, declining by RM20 or 0.91% to RM2,500 per tonne, with 23,562 contracts traded and open interest standing at 66,682 trades.

The benchmark contract fell as much as RM144 or 5.7% to RM2,379 per tonne earlier this afternoon after the government’s announcement on CPO export tax cuts.

But October's spot CPO contracts rebounded to close RM20 or 0.84% higher to RM2,400 per tonne after staying in the red for most of Friday. There were 101 contracts traded and 1,726 open interest trades.

"The selling brings the spot month level to more realistic levels," said Jim Teh, senior dealer of Interband Group of Companies.

Teh added buyers were willing to pay RM2,200-RM2,300 per tonne at the physical market.

The government said it will implement "a reduced export duty structure" for CPO as among measures to "allow the palm oil industry in Malaysia to compete with other palm oil exporting countries in terms of prices" and allow local refiners to better compete in global markets, PLANTATION [], Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said in a statement.

"The government statement is good but speculators had already bought up the market ahead of the announcement," said Teh.

"So today, it is profit-taking for fund managers, hedge funds and bankers. They were already in the market buying up two to three days ago," he added.

While today's measures will help reduce Malaysian palm oil stocks in the future, Teh noted that buying from countries like India, China and the US still remain slow.

"Technicals showed that palm oil faces a resistance at RM2,528 per tonne and may retrace to RM2,399, and a break above RM2,528 will lead to a moderate gain to RM2,579," said Reuters analyst Wang Tao in a news report from Reuters today.

Despite today's CPO developments, there was little excitement among plantation counters on the stock exchange.

KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD [] gained 8 sen to RM21.40 with 660,700 shares traded, while Genting Plantations Bhd gained 5 sen to RM8.98 with 245,500 shares done.

But Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd fell 1 sen to RM4.74.

Hello.
I also do think it's rather funny.
What's wrong with saying profit taking?
Read the section of the news again.



According to this Teh, FCPO buyers or speculators or whatever you want to call them had been, had already been in the market and they have been buying two to three days ago.

Question, do you know what was the FCPO price two to three days ago?
If these FCPO buyers two or three days ago, sold today, how would you define their activities?
Aren't they selling their positions for a profit?
When one sell for a profit, is this not profit taking?

Yes, FCPO dropped so kau but not traders would be holding on those positions.
They would be dead and buried if they do so.

Just sharing my one sen here.

ham_revilo:

FCPO closing 3 days ago.

Ending BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton:

Month Close Previous Change High Low
Oct'12 2,278 2,228 +50 2,278 2,250
Nov'12 2,384 2,314 +70 2,388 2,359
Dec'12 2,438 2,368 +70 2,455 2,392
Jan'13 2,504 2,430 +74 2,518 2,461

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/asian...ng-cbot-soyoil/

FCPO closing 2 days ago.

Ending BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton:

Month Close Previous Change High Low
Oct'12 2,278 2,278 0 2,278 2,270
Nov'12 2,385 2,384 +1 2,403 2,359
Dec'12 2,457 2,438 +19 2,483 2,417
Jan'13 2,525 2,504 +21 2,546 2,484

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/asian...usda-crop-data/

FCPO closing YESTERDAY

Ending BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton:

Month Close Previous Change High Low
Oct'12 2,407 2,380 +27 2,400 2,300
Nov'12 2,480 2,453 +27 2,480 2,340
Dec'12 2,500 2,523 -23 2,529 2,379
Jan'13 2,542 2,586 -44 2,592 2,433

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/asian...ound-next-week/

Buyers who bought 2 or 3 days ago, were in a profit position.
If they sell yesterday, that's profit taking dude.

Chef Long!



Give one example of an bull elephant bar from yesterday trading.

Amedia update (for own reference )

Daily



5 minutues



Weekly

Yes!!!



Maybe a bit late now ...
Wait for pullback?

Chef Long:



Inix

You put video but no want to put example.
What attitude?

TSH chart looks nice.
FCPO? It had rebounded nicely but on Friday, it closed down.


Just thinking out loud here.
Some fundamental issues.
The export tax and lower cpo prices for planters.
Sales - Cost + tax + etc etc = Profit
Now tax is lower which means profit should be more.
However, with crude palm oil prices being part of how count sales, and with CPO prices a lot lower compared to few months ago and last year,
I am thinking plantation companies earnings won't be as strong, in fact, I would guess much lower.
So I think this export tax will help but it would probably be negated by weak CPO prices.
Also, another thing, plantation stocks did not correct as how CPO had corrected, which means plantation stocks is not cheap at all.

Not sure I want to play this.
Not much to my advantage.

Thanks for the feedback but I posted this stock simply because it has a Bull Elephant Bar that Chef Long was highlighting via his youtube video.
AHealth too has a BER.
I don't use this strategy.
Any praise and critic should be forward to Chef.
I am

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 14 2012, 04:37 PM

Made a reply on the Stock Market Discussion explaining why I left.
Someone deleted my long reply explaining the truth.

Why you
That was an interesting tutotial mah.
Do you use it?