FCCPO open up or down?
Did you consider that when you sold?

http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2517998/+840#

Post #958.

I saw. CW was only 0.085 then...

yhtan:

Plantation sector index.

The support line drawn looks .....



However when you zoom it out....



This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 4 2012, 10:53 AM

KLCCP is now 6.09.

Anyone got in?

LOL!

If you are still interested, be patient, maybe next week got opening for you.

magika: see it's correcting now.

Possible. Nothing goes straight up.

Yes I agree!

I just showed how a simple line could be drawn for the plantation sector index and how one could 'assume' that one might see support there.

For me, lines are just lines.
Sometimes we could see support at such lines.
Sometimes we could also see resistance at such lines.

My opinion remains on the sector.

If the index goes below that line, where would be the next support for that index?

Did you see post #753? http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...40&p=55056534&#

What happened?
I won a new Jaguar?

How to buy a stock with a name like that?

Don't have, no buy.
Tenaga 7.14.

U auditing me ah?
I no buy mother la.
Told you I don't buy everything that I see.

Tenaga going nuts now...

You leh? You buy what?

Kazaff: Edwin posted that last night.
Post #809.
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2517998/+800#

This again is a good call from Edwin.

A lot of stocks do look good.

bo good

Congrats magika.

Don't be so calculative, just sapu the seller.

jk la

You no masuk Sweet Young Fella meh?

Fundamentally and technically I would rather remain on the sideline on this sector.
Technically:
Yesterday, I posted the plantation sector index and showed where the support line could be, 8085.



It's common and known that many would assume to see support at support lines and hey, if that support holds, this could be a dua kali bottom play for the sector index. The index rebounded yesterday to close at 8160.9
Can we depend on this support line? How risky is this play? Where is the next support level? Look at below chart. Can you see where the next possible bottom is?
Updated chart.


Verdict? A rebound play is possible but things look dicey. If this support level does not hold, what's next?

FCPO.



The big, zoom out chart



Do you use upside down charts? (try goog this) Look or imagine this chart upside down, and you will see a chart that is breaking up or moving strongly upwards. If you see a chart like, would you go out and declare a short immediately on the chart? I won't. I would wait till I get other confirmation(s) before I short. Well if FCPO is to be played on a longer term basis, would you long FCPO now? Or would you wait for more confirmation(s) signals?

Fundamentally.
Has any1 forget that CPO is cyclical?
Yes we had the awesome years where CPO traded above 3k. At one stage it nearly hit 4.5k.
And we know this was the cycle of good fortune, so geng that govt imposed the windfall tax and this and tax on the sector.
If that 3k+ was the good cycle, when will see the down cycle again?
Don't tell me this few days represent the down cycle and this is it and that the CPO Mr. Chow San will shift the cycle to good times again?
Are we saying the bad cycle will not appear again?
How many good years have the plantation sector has already?
What if the current good cycle is to end?
What if we are only seeing the start of the bad cycle?

How about earnings?
Plantation stocks earnings were hit bad last quarter already.
I remember TDM's earnings getting hit some 70%. ( http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?o...18447&Itemid=79 )
What will Nov earnings and Feb earnings hold for plantation stocks?
Nov earnings should be for the period ending Sep 2012.
Feb earnings should be for the period ending Dec 2012.
I might be wrong but my gut feeling is that the earnings should be poor.
The amazing thing is I don't know how poor earnings could be.
What about the quarter after that?
Will CPO prices rise? Or we will it recover and then trade sideways (sideways where? 2.6k? 2.8k? 2.9k?)

Verdict: So many uncertainties. How to make a logical, smart decision NOW?
Do I want to buta-buta go in and declare that I am buying 'value' in this sector now?


who let the long breath devil?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 5 2012, 09:02 AM